Wednesday, October 11, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Andretti Autosport's 2023 Season

The seventh IndyCar Wrap-Up brings us to Andretti Autosport, which saw a slight change to its driver lineup for 2023, and about the same results as the year before. There were great days for the four-car organization, but Andretti Autosport continued to have woeful days where none of its cars were close to competitive, something that has become increasingly more common for this once championship-winning team.

Kyle Kirkwood
As a rookie, Kirkwood showed some pace with A.J. Foyt Racing but could not bring home the car and amass respectable finishes. The Foyt cars may have been lacking in overall quality, a problem that would not be the case at Andretti Autosport. Kirkwood was able to showcase the stunning ability we saw in the Road to Indy system, though it was far from a flawless season.

What objectively was his best race?
How about two victories? After finishing no better than tenth in his rookie season, Kirkwood won his third race of his sophomore season at Long Beach, and that first career victory came from his first career pole position. 

Not to out do himself, Kirkwood won four months later in Nashville, this one less a show of dominance, but rather better strategy as Kirkwood did not stop early under the first caution for David Malukas stopping off course. The pace allowed Kirkwood to stay ahead of those that did stop under that caution and he leapfrogged ahead of Scott McLaughlin in the middle of the race. Late cautions tightened up the field, but Kirkwood held on for his second career victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
Long Beach was fantastic. Kirkwood led 53 of 85 laps, a fair number of the laps but not a beat down. It was a smart drive as Kirkwood let Josef Newgarden control the second stint because Kirkwood knew he had the better tires for the longevity of that run. Kirkwood ended up re-taking the lead and pulling further away. There were plenty of opportunities for Kirkwood to get caught in traffic and lose ground, perhaps lose the lead, but he didn't put a wheel wrong.

What objectively was his worst race?
Kirkwood looked set to be in the mix at the finish of the Indianapolis 500. He was the best Andretti Autosport car and climbed into the top five. However, he was in the wrong place when Felix Rosenqvist spun back up the racetrack after Rosenqvist brushed the barrier on exit of turn one. The Swede clipped the American, shearing Kirkwood's left rear tire from the car and spinning the American out of the race. Instead of fighting to the finish, Kirkwood was out, classified in 28th after completing 183 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis is at the top, but two more should be mentioned, and both happened to be 15th-place results. 

St. Petersburg saw Andretti Autosport take three of the top five qualifiers. Kirkwood slid backward from the green flag and was never a factor while Romain Grosjean was one of the best drivers on track. It was an eventful race with Kirkwood after contact with Conor Daly and climbing over Jack Harvey's car. Somehow, he finished 15th, but it was disappointing. 

Kirkwood made an error on a restart at Toronto. He was the leading driver of the cars that stopped under the caution for Romain Grosjean getting in the barrier. At that point, it looked like Kirkwood had a chance to make it to the finish after that stop and was in position to possibly steal a victory. On that ensuing restart, Kirkwood spun Hélio Castroneves in the final corner, earning Kirkwood a penalty and ending any hope of victory. It might not have ended up as a victory had the contact been avoided, but Kirkwood was going to be challenging for a top five at worst.

Kyle Kirkwood's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 11th (352 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 88
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 5
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 11.647
Average Finish: 13.059

Colton Herta
With another offseason looking to Formula One behind him, Herta had a chance to put all the questions about his qualifications to bed and earn enough Super License points with a top three championship finish. However, Herta never came close to competing for the championship top three. He rarely competed for the top three in a race in what was a significant step back in his young career.

What objectively was his best race?
In Toronto, Herta went off strategy and was in position to be the leader as the race cycled after the caution for the Kirkwood-Castroneves contact, as Herta was set to stretch his fuel. However, Álex Palou passed Herta on the restart, meaning the race lead was not in the cards for Herta. 

Herta did have enough in the tank to still finish third after starting 14th.

What subjectively was his best race?
It really is Toronto in what was a letdown of a season for Herta. He had better pace than qualifying suggested. Changing weather conditions in qualifying relegated him down the grid. He had to do something different and the team gave him a strategy that earned him more positions.

What objectively was his worst race?
In Nashville, Herta attempted to go off strategy, but it did not pan out in his favor, and he was trapped in traffic for most of this race. Traffic kind of backed up Herta and led to an unforced error, Herta brushing the barrier. The damaged ended his race four laps from the finish in 21st.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There were plenty of ugly days for Herta, but he went winless after spending much of the previous offseason lobbying for an FIA Super License waiver to run in Formula One. He went winless after spending an entire winter saying he believed he should be in Formula One. This wasn't a winless season that saw him finish in the top five in all 17 races. This was a slightly better than mediocre season. 

Mid-Ohio was one of two races where Herta started on pole position, he led the first 26 laps but the team had the wrong tire strategy. That led to Herta chasing the entire race but constantly losing positions. Then he sped entering pit lane and that left him scraping to just make it back in the top ten. He ended up 11th.

Mid-Ohio might have been the dumbest race of Herta's season if it wasn't for Road America where he led 33 laps, but the team decided to bring Herta in for his final pit stop with 15 laps remaining. This put Herta into a massive fuel save stint and he went from leading to holding on to finish fifth. 

There were two glorious chances for victory, and Herta lost both because the team beat itself, something it has become all too good at.
 
Colton Herta's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 10th (356 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 78
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 5
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 8.8235
Average Finish: 11.471

Romain Grosjean
Year two with Andretti Autosport brought much excitement for Grosjean, as he continued to search for his first victory. The Frenchman was knocking on the door and had it in his grasp, however, this season will be remembered more for his inconsistency, as Andretti Autosport had three capable drivers but could not get all three firing on all cylinders in unison.

What objectively was his best race?
Grosjean had consecutive runner-up finishes this season. The first was at Long Beach behind teammate Kyle Kirkwood. Grosjean did not quite have what it took to defeat Kirkwood this day, but he was clearly in a good car and was worthy of second. 

The next race was Barber Motorsports Park and a fierce battle with Scott McLaughlin will be remembered for the ages. Grosjean made a daring pass on the outside of the penultimate corner to take the lead, but McLaughlin had better pace on the three-stop strategy and re-took the lead from Grosjean, holding on for victory. 

What subjectively was his best race?
It is likely the race we will remember the most for Grosjean all season, St. Petersburg. Grosjean had that race won. He and McLaughlin went at it and McLaughlin had been one of the best cars all race, but Grosjean looked better and at the end of the final pit cycle, it appeared Grosjean had done enough to leap ahead of McLaughlin and sail away to victory.

However, McLaughlin got the braking wrong into turn four on his out lap, and McLaughlin knocked Grosjean into the tires. If they both make it through that corner, Grosjean is leading and likely takes his first career IndyCar victory. Instead, the Frenchman was out of the race and distraught. It was a near-flawless drive. What went wrong was out of his control.

What objectively was his worst race?
For the second consecutive year, Grosjean had an accident in turn two at the Indianapolis 500. This time it came on lap 150, it was only the second caution of the race, and Grosjean ended up 30th. The race had not been going well for the Frenchman up to that point, and contact in the pit lane with his teammate Colton Herta had stymied both drivers' days up to that point.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There were a handful of disappointing result to pick from for Grosjean. Detroit might not be the first one on your radar, but this was a thrown away result he could not afford after all the promise the early races had shown. He should have had at least three podium finishes and four top five finishes in the first six races. After the Indianapolis result, Grosjean needed a good day. He was running a solid seventh before clipping the barrier. 

Detroit wasn't going to be a race victory. It was unlikely to be a top five, but this was a race where Grosjean just had to see the finish and bring the car home in one piece. It was more points dropped and confirmed what the tone of his season will be.

Romain Grosjean's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 13th (296 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 96
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 9.3529
Average Finish: 15.176

Devlin DeFrancesco
Expectations were much lower for DeFrancesco compared to his three teammates. His rookie season saw improvement toward the end of the year and he looked better in year two, but the pace was never on par with the rest of the organization. There was one big flash in the pan that quickly fizzled out, encapsulating the Canadian's two seasons with Andretti Autosport.

What objectively was his best race?
DeFrancesco avoided contact with competitors and the barrier in Detroit, allowing him to climb to a 12th-place finish from 17th starting position.

What subjectively was his best race?
Another race where DeFrancesco did nothing spectacular other than not making a mistake was Indianapolis where he finished 13th, completing all 200 laps. He did move up from 25th starting position but it was not a flashy drive, and he likely was gifted four to five spots due to other drivers being in accidents. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Slight contact with the barrier knocked the Canadian out of the Music City Grand Prix in Nashville. DeFrancesco was classified in 26th with only 65 laps completed.

What subjectively was his worst race?
You may think this was DeFrancesco's best race of the season, but in the August Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race, DeFrancesco pulled off what could be the pass of the year going from fifth to first in turn one. However, after leading the opening eight laps, six of which were under caution, DeFrancesco sunk like a rock and ended up finishing a lap down in 19th. This came after he unexpectedly qualified in the top five. 

For about a 15-minute period it looked like DeFrancesco was going to steal the show and take the most unthinkable victory in IndyCar history. I guess the magic was never meant to last that long. 

Devlin DeFrancesco's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 22nd (177 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 18.176
Average Finish: 19.706

An Early Look Ahead
Andretti Autosport, soon to be Andretti Global as the organization rebrands, is just a good team in IndyCar. There is nothing wrong with being a good team. Most teams on the grid strive to be what Andretti Autosport is at the moment, but Andretti Autosport was once a great team. 

I wrote last year that IndyCar's "Big Three" was a "Big Two" because it had surpassed a decade since Andretti Autosport's last championship. That remains the case, but Andretti Autosport has continued to win races even if championships have been lacking. It won two more races this season, one of only three teams with multiple victories this season along with, you guessed it, Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske. 

The problem is those victories are not signs of greater dominance. Kirkwood hit on two days when the car was in the zone, but it has become increasingly more common that none of the four Andretti cars will be in the picture. 

Andretti Autosport did not have a top five finisher in any of the final four races of the 2023 season. It didn't have a top five finisher in 12 of 17 races this past season. In ten races it had only one top ten finisher. Twice the team failed to have a top ten finisher. Only once did it have multiple top five finishers and in only three races did it have multiple top ten finishers. 

Those aren't great numbers and are not close to good enough to win a championship. 

We will see a shift in drivers again. Kirkwood and Herta remain with Marcus Ericsson joining the fold as the team has questions over whether or not it will continue as a three- or four-car operation. Add to it that Romain Grosjean has filed for arbitration after his contract extension was not be picked up for 2024. 

During the summer, there were reports Andretti Autosport wanted to strengthen its driver lineup, essentially acknowledging a four-car operation with DeFrancesco in the fourth machine was not enough to compete with Ganassi and Penske. Money could force the team to scale back, but the team's best option all along could have been sitting right in its lap. It is getting a capable driver with Ericsson, but Ericsson should be an addition to its three top drivers from 2023 and not a replacement in what could be a shrinking team. 

Kirkwood, Herta, Grosjean and Ericsson is a formidable lineup on paper. Three of the four are race winners and Grosjean arguably should already have one victory to his name. The drivers can only go as far as the team takes them, and when Andretti Autosport is off, all four cars are off. It has not been able to get two or three cars regularly in the top ten for a handful of seasons.

It seems almost certain Grosjean will be gone. A fourth Andretti entry becomes less likely with each passing day, but the last time Andretti Autosport only ran three full-time cars, it won its most recent championship. 

Such a turnaround feels far-fetched entering 2024. Kirkwood, Herta and Ericsson should all win a race on paper, but winning on the tarmac has become harder for Andretti Autosport in recent years. Herta was its only driver in the championship top ten and he was behind two Arrow McLaren entries and a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver. The issues are deeper at Andretti, and the distractions will only increase now that the FIA has approved its entry to Formula One with the next step being convincing the existing Formula One teams to let it compete. 

Kirkwood made a step in year-one with the team. He should grow from there. Herta went through three strategists in one season. Strategy has been a weak spot for Andretti Autosport for the last few seasons, but Kirkwood found a way to make it work with Bryan Herta calling the shots on his timing stand. Colton Herta must do the same with somebody. Three strategists a year is not a winning strategy.

Ericsson is a textbook good driver. The Swede puts the car in great positions and occasionally leads to victories, but while he has won four times in his IndyCar career, including winning an Indianapolis 500, he has yet to have a dominant day in IndyCar. While you hear his name frequently, the results are not sensational. He does have 50 top ten finishes in 80 starts, a solid batting average, but the biggest knock against Ericsson is 34 of those 50 top ten finishes are results from sixth to tenth. Good days, but rarely considered great days. 

Andretti Autosport should continue to be a good team as Andretti Global in 2024. Becoming a great team again will remain difficult.