Wednesday, October 4, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2023 Season

We conclude the first half of IndyCar Wrap-Ups with Ed Carpenter Racing. Things did not get better for ECR in 2023. Though its championship finish was right where the team has since the departure of Josef Newgarden, this felt like one of the team's worst seasons in IndyCar. This was the first time in the team's 12-season history it did not score a single top five finish. With poor results came midseason changes, but they did not make much of a difference.

Rinus VeeKay
VeeKay began his fourth IndyCar season, fourth with ECR, in 2023. Each of his first three seasons were highlighted with flashes of brilliance, but overall results left him solidly in the middle of the field. He had finished 12th in the championship in the previous two seasons. There was not an upward swing in year four.

What objectively was his best race?
It was Portland where VeeKay finished sixth and spent much of the race in the top ten despite starting 13th. VeeKay was keeping pace with the likes of Josef Newgarden and running better than Marcus Ericsson. Portland also fell in a good final stretch of the season for the Dutchman as he had finished 11th in the previous two races and had not finished better than 12th in the seven races prior. 

What subjectively was his best race?
VeeKay was tenth in the Indianapolis 500 after leading 24 of the first 63 laps, but it was a recovery drive after VeeKay made contact with Álex Palou exiting the pit lane and it knocked both cars out of the top ten and VeeKay had a penalty to overcome as well. 

There were not many great days for Rinus VeeKay this season, and Portland and the Indianapolis 500 are the only bright spots, though his own error at Indianapolis did dull the shine on it. This could have been a much better result, and a lack of patience cost him. Tenth is even flattering when you consider a handful of drivers that dropped out of the race late were running in the top ten at the time. This easily could have been a 13th or 14th place finish and no praise would be sung for such a result. 

What objectively was his worst race?
A mechanical failure ended his Long Beach race after only 48 laps, placing him in 26th. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is the Indianapolis 500 because it is the only track Ed Carpenter Racing has figured out, or perhaps more accurately, cares about. The team has given up being competitive everywhere else for the Indianapolis 500, and so far the team has never won the race and really only gotten close once. In four years, VeeKay has shown he is more than capable of handling the car in qualifying. He has never started worse than fourth, but he has lost composure in the race each time. If he cannot at least keep the car in contention, I don't know how long ECR will keep him on.

Rinus VeeKay's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (277 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 24
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 15.353
Average Finish: 14.706

Conor Daly
This was always going to be a make-or-break season for Daly. After having only two top ten finishes in his previous 38 starts entering 2023, Daly was going to have to show some improvement this season to warrant retention moving forward. Unfortunately, Daly's results continue to lag behind his teammate, and he didn't even make it through the season with ECR.

What objectively was his best race?
How about an eighth-place finish in the Indianapolis 500? Unlike his top ten result in this race the year before, Daly didn't show stellar pace, but he was in a good position when other cars falter to wind up in the top ten.

What subjectively was his best race?
Indianapolis is his only good day, but it is hard to celebrate it considering what happened before and what came next.

What objectively was his worst race?
Daly was 25th at Barber Motorsports Park, a lead lap finish but miles from contending from anything to brag about.

What subjectively was his worst race?
How about the race that led to him being fired? Starting and finishing 15th at Detroit isn't what cost him his job, but it was Daly's final act at ECR. The ride was lost after having four results of 19th or worse in the first five races. It was one top five finish and three top ten finishes in 46 starts with the team since 2020. It was never finishing better than 17th in the championship. The end was a culmination, not one sharp break.

Conor Daly's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 25th (88 of 134 points with Ed Carpenter Racing)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 20.545
Average Finish: 18

Ryan Hunter-Reay
With Daly gone, ECR turned to a veteran in an attempt to steady the ship. After spending 2022 on the sidelines, Hunter-Reay made his first IndyCar appearances in over a year in May at Indianapolis with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. With no other plans, Hunter-Reay took a role with ECR and ended up running the remaining ten races. It was clear ECR's problems were deeper than the drivers.

What objectively was his best race?
After a grueling deputy role for Ed Carpenter Racing, Hunter-Reay ended his season with a tenth-place finish at Laguna Seca. Laguna Seca was such a messy race that this felt like more a top ten result out of survival than raw pace.

What subjectively was his best race?
Ironically, it was Hunter-Reay's one race not with Ed Carpenter Racing, the Indianapolis 500 driving for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Hunter-Reay spent the entire race in the middle of the field ticking off laps. Then the events of the closing laps saw Hunter-Reay leading as a red flag came out. Instead of attempting to stretch fuel, Hunter-Reay did get a splash, but he still drove up to an 11th-place finish, an admirable result for a one-off entry.

 It wasn't a spectacular day, but it was Hunter-Reay getting into a car and getting the job done. He didn't overdrive the car and waste the opportunity. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing is a measured operation and the team and driver meshed to pull off something respectable.

What objectively was his worst race?
At Toronto, Hunter-Reay was hit from the inside when Jack Harvey slid into turn one. Hunter-Reay collided with Tom Blomqvist, and all three drivers were out of the race right then and there on lap one. In Hunter-Reay's case, he was classified in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nothing good happened at Ed Carpenter Racing for Hunter-Reay. Any hope that Hunter-Reay would be the spark to lift ECR in the second half of the season were dashed quickly. The issues at ECR were always deeper than the driver. Hunter-Reay was not a magician that could take a team struggling to crack 15th into a regular top ten finisher. It was tough to watch. A returning driver with nothing to prove but hoping to show he still has it and a team that once was a sleeping giant that now merely has one trick up its sleeve and cannot even pull that one off.

Ryan Hunter-Reay's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (131 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 22.091
Average Finish: 18.273

Ed Carpenter
In his tenth season as an oval-only driver, Carpenter had five chances to get a victory. He was also approaching ten years since his most recent victory when it appeared this oval-only role could be rather rewarding for him. Instead, he entered 2023 off the back of a season where his best finish was 13th. In the previous three seasons, he had only two top ten finishes in 15 races. This year ended up being more of the same.

What objectively was his best race?
In an unremarkable drive, Carpenter ended up 13th in the Texas race, the first oval race of the season and Carpenter's first of five starts.

What subjectively was his best race?
Texas is really the only race Carpenter has to boost about, and it wasn't that good.

What objectively was his worst race?
Carpenter was seven laps down in 24th in the first Iowa race. He was also 24th and six laps down at Gateway, a race where he ran over the back of Benjamin Pedersen at the start. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
The only race Ed Carpenter cares about is the Indianapolis 500, and he was caught in the final accident that ended his race three laps early and placed him in 20th. He was never a factor in this race. He could not keep up with VeeKay. ECR had the speed. Carpenter didn't. 

He also wasted a fourth starting position in the second Iowa race to finish 23rd, four laps down.

Ed Carpenter's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 30th (46 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 16.2
Average Finish: 20.8

An Early Look Ahead
Does anybody want Rinus VeeKay? Because it is hard to imagine he will make it to year six with Ed Carpenter Racing. Next year will be year five, and VeeKay is set for an ECR return, but at what point does this partnership run its course? 

VeeKay just turned 23 years old, but I am sure he will not want to spend the second half of his 20s fighting to finish 14th in the championship every year like he has spent for all of his 20s so far. 

We know at his highest level he can win races and compete at the front. It wasn't that long ago he, Álex Palou and Patricio O'Ward all had their first career victory within five races of one another, and there were questions about which young driver, along with Colton Herta, you would like the most going forward. Those other three are with higher ranked teams. VeeKay is with the smallest of the bunch, and with championship finishes of 14th, 12th, 12th and 14th I think we know exactly what the VeeKay-ECR partnership can do. 

Prior to VeeKay, ECR's best championship finisher from 2017 to 2019 was 15th, 14th and 14th. VeeKay has lived up to ECR's level. Does anyone see more in him? Nobody saw enough in his predecessor Spencer Pigot, though Pigot never won a race.    

ECR already has one seat it has to worry about filling. Hunter-Reay will not be back. The team tested Oliver Askew, who last competed in IndyCar in the 2021 Long Beach season finale and has not raced in anything since August 14, 2022, the Seoul Formula E season finale, and Christian Rasmussen, the 2023 Indy Lights champion. 

Askew's IndyCar career was brief. Who was the last IndyCar driver to wind up on the sidelines for multiple years, and then return and be the stalwart for a team that won races? It has been a long time since that career path has worked for anybody. Coincidentally, Ryan Hunter-Reay is probably the last driver to match that career path, but that was over 15 years ago now, and Hunter-Reay had already won multiple races despite the lengthy absence from competition. 
 
Rasmussen is ready for the move up to the next level. ECR has a history of hiring from Indy Lights. It has worked with VeeKey. It didn't quite yield desired results with Pigot. Rasmussen was the best driver in Indy Lights this year and pulled away late in the season, but this was far from the deepest Indy Lights grid. 

Of course, ECR could go in an entirely different direction. There are plenty of European-based drivers looking for work. 

As for the team's namesake, Ed Carpenter hasn't finished better than 13th in the past two seasons. It has been over ten years since he won a race. Carpenter turns 43 years old March 3, 2024. We are at the point where Carpenter should consider just showing up at Indianapolis. There is no point in wheeling out a third car just to maybe finish in the top fifteen. Let's see how 2024 goes, but no improvement should change the allocation of resources for the oval races. Indianapolis is still an option for the next half-decade, but we have enough of a data sample on the oval-only experiment. 

The only thing we should be confident about with ECR heading into next year is it will likely have a bunch of unanswered questions in about 365 days as well. This team is two years away from stability, and even that seems like wishful thinking.