Wednesday, October 18, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Team Penske's 2023 Season

The penultimate IndyCar Wrap-Up finds us looking at Team Penske. It is unfathomable to consider this year a disappointment. Penske won the Indianapolis 500, it had two drivers in the top five of the championship and all three of its drives ranked in the top seven. Yet, this is Team Penske. Five victories just doesn't feel like enough, and its most senior driver went winless for the first time driving for the organization. At no point did a Penske driver lead the championship this season. 

Scott McLaughlin
After a breakout sophomore season, McLaughlin aimed for more in year three with Team Penske. This season did not mirror his 2022 season, and though there were fewer standout drives, the New Zealander found success through consistency. While paired with two of the toughest drivers in contemporary IndyCar, it was the third-year convert from touring cars that found himself on top in this highly competitive intra-squad battle.

What objectively was his best race?
McLaughlin won at Barber Motorsports Park after a grueling battle with Romain Grosjean, but in a race that saw McLaughlin on the better tire compound for the final stint in the race, and McLaughlin was running a three-stop strategy to Grosjean's two. The race came to the New Zealander late and he ran away with it.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to overlook Barber because Grosjean was in control of that race and Grosjean took the lead from McLaughlin with an incredible pass on the outside of the penultimate corner. At that point, it appeared to be race over and Grosjean was set for his first career victory, but McLaughlin had the better tires and chased down Grosjean, who was also watching his fuel. McLaughlin caught a moment when Grosjean went wide one lap in turn five and once McLaughlin was ahead it was over. 

The first Iowa race also deserves a mention because on a race weekend where Josef Newgarden was close to untouchable, but McLaughlin spent almost that entire race in second position and he was there if Newgarden slipped.

What objectively was his worst race?
An unscheduled pit stop to repair wing damage knocked McLaughlin to a 16th-place finish in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It was the first race of the season when McLaughlin got into Grosjean and ended Grosjean's race while effectively ending McLaughlin's. These were the best two drivers and they were in lockstep for the entire penultimate stint. The race would come down to the final pit cycle. Grosjean stopped first. McLaughlin came the next lap. 

When McLaughlin emerged from the pit lane, the drivers were side-by-side, but Grosjean had the advantage going into turn four. McLaughlin lost control entering turn four and put both cars into the tire barrier. At worst, McLaughlin would have finished second if both drivers made it through that corner. Instead, McLaughlin was out of the top ten, a penalty knocked him back a little more and he finished 13th. 

McLaughlin owned up to the error, but it is not how anyone wants to start a season. 

Scott McLaughlin's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (488 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 4
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 14
Laps Led: 117
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 7
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 7.2353
Average Finish: 7

Josef Newgarden
Since day one with Team Penske, Newgarden has been in the championship fight, and with two titles and three consecutive championship runner-up finishes, it was never a doubt that Newgarden would be in the fight until the very end again this season. The goal was to achieve something more in 2023. The Tennessee-native had won plenty of races in many different places. There was one race on his mind, and he accomplished his lifelong goal, though the season did not end on the highest note.

What objectively was his best race?
Newgarden won four races, all on ovals, Texas, the Indianapolis 500 and he swept the Iowa doubleheader.

What subjectively was his best race?
Which race do you think? It is the Indianapolis 500. In a year where Team Penske did not look all that competitive, Newgarden went from 17th on the starting grid to first to the checkered flag. It wasn't a case of something flipped on during the race. Newgarden patiently made up ground. 

He was in the top five at the right time and had the car setup for such a battle. Newgarden took the lead at one point with a brilliant pass on Marcus Ericsson and Patricio O'Ward. Then it looked like the race was going to escape from Newgarden when Ericsson had nosed ahead on the lap 197 restart as Benjamin Pedersen and Ed Carpenter bounced off of one another and brought out a caution. 

However, race control decided to red flag the race and restart with the green flag and white flag coming out simultaneously. With one chance to win the race, Newgarden didn't overreact to Ericsson swerving, and it may have won Newgarden the race. Instead of chasing the draft, Newgarden let Ericsson scrub off speed exiting turn two down the back straightaway. Newgarden made the run and took the lead well before turn three and he had enough to hold on for his most famous victory.

What objectively was his worst race?
It was about two and a half months later in the August IMS road course race when Newgarden qualified 19th, took a six-spot grid penalty for an engine change and then was caught in the opening lap incident when Marcus Armstrong was stopped in turn seven and Newgarden had nowhere to go but park his car on Armstrong's front end. 

Newgarden could not be restarted in time before the field came around. He was a lap down and could not get out of that hole, finishing 25th. 

One week after that, Newgarden was running in the top five at Gateway after dominating the race early, but during the pit cycle, Newgarden slid up the racetrack and brushed the barrier exiting turn two, damaging his car and leaving him 25th again, effectively ending his championship hopes.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is not one race but three of those final four races, the August IMS road course race, Gateway and then Laguna Seca to cap it off. 

In the second IMS road course race, it wasn't just getting in the accident but Newgarden did not have the pace the entire weekend and it was the worst time to not show up. Newgarden was 84 points behind Álex Palou with four races remaining before the start of that weekend. At worse, he could not afford to lose any more ground, maybe a point or two would not be the end of the world. Newgarden lost 19 points. 

Gateway was Newgarden's last hope, and it started well, but once Scott Dixon stuck to the three-stop strategy, Newgarden lost control of the race. He was still in position to gain points on Palou, but Newgarden could not afford less than a victory and ten less points for second was still going to hurt. He barely stepped over the line and it bit him.

Then he was hit at the start at Laguna Seca and had another incident leaving him 21st. The championship was already gone but it was a rotten end to an otherwise good season.

Josef Newgarden's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 5th (479 points)
Wins: 4
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 602
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 9.3529
Average Finish: 9.4706

Will Power
The defending champion had plenty to aim for in 2023. Power was already at the top of the record book in most of the major statistically categories. He was positioned to make further ground in the annals of IndyCar history. However, off-track concerns dampened Power's start of the season. He was good, but not at the level we saw the year prior, and 2023 turned out to be one of the worst of Power's career while still being more than acceptable to the average driver.

What objectively was his best race?
Power was runner-up in the second Iowa race after starting from his 70th career pole position.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the second Iowa race. Power led fewer laps in this race compared to the first Iowa race, but Power had a better balance on his car in the second Iowa race. There was less frustration and when there was the late restart, Power made the pass on Felix Rosenqvist to get second instead of finishing third. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Power spun early at Portland in a battle with Alexander Rossi. Power stalled in the grass and went a lap down before being restarted. Power was trapped a lap down for practically the entire race and finished 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is probably the Indianapolis 500. After brushing the barrier exiting turn two, Power had bent suspension which took him out of contention for anything special. He did see the checkered flag, but five laps down in 23rd. 

The first Iowa race must sting because Power was controlling that race. Newgarden was struggling in the early stages and Power looked settled. With the flip of a switch, Newgarden had it figured out and when Newgarden took the lead from Power, Power was out of sorts. He was frustrated and ended up losing spots. He only fell to fifth, but it was on to be better than that. 

Fifth is far from a disaster, but when a driver goes winless, the best opportunity that got away looks that much worse. This was that opportunity. 

Will Power's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 7th (425 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 4
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 180
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 9.1765
Average Finish: 9.4118

An Early Look Ahead
Team Penske will be fine, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have areas where it must improve. It might have won five races, a great year for almost every team in IndyCar, but that is down for Team Penske, and as great as Chip Ganassi Racing was, Team Penske had its problems.

Newgarden will enter the 2024 season 637 days removed from his most recent road/street course victory. He had only one podium finish on a road/street course in 2023. His average finish on road/street courses was 11th, not terrible, but not great. Newgarden isn't experiencing some career drop off. He was still masterful on ovals, and even with his dismal road/street course runs, he had a few good performances. Long Beach comes to mind where Newgarden started well and then was on the wrong strategy and faded.

Road and street courses were a place where all the Penske cars struggled in 2023. McLaughlin won at Barber, but Power made the Fast Six only once all season. Once! Power was the king of starting seventh this season. Power did make the Fast 12 in ten races. It could just have been a fluky season and instead of Power winning three or four pole positions and considering that a down year for Power, he ended up only making the Fast Six once. 

Power was focused on his wife's health during the early stages of the season, and it likely was on his mind for the entire year. There are more important things than motorsports. His wife's health is monumentally more important than any result in an IndyCar race.  

There is the possibility of this was the start of the downward swing for Power. Not every driver has it forever. I don't think that is the case, not yet. Like Scott Dixon, I need to see at least two or three seasons before I start considering that was the case for Power. You may say Power only won once in 2022 while winning the championship, but Power had nine podium finishes in 17 races and 12 top five finishes while taking five pole positions that season. Only 2023 was the only off-year to date. 

Even McLaughlin wasn't perfect this year and he was third in the championship. He had one top five finish in the first eight races. Then he reeled off six top five finishes in the final nine races while ending the season with 11 consecutive top ten finishes. He might be the best driver in the world.

Penske had an underwhelming 2021 season winning three races. It then won nine races in 2022 while taking the championship and putting all three of its cars in the top four of the championship. Team Penske is going to be fine... but let's see where it improves in 2024.