Best of the Month: November 2024

This will get lost in the holiday shuffle, but if you are reading this on your Friday, a day after filling yourself with turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes and a varieties of pies, welcome. You can hold off on Christmas shopping for a little bit longer. There are still 26 days until Christmas. No need to panic. 

Holidays aside, the motorsports year is winding down, but it is about to pick up again shortly. A few championships are actually starting shortly. How about that? Either way, we have some cleaning up to do. It is a period of reflection more than anything else.

Martin Truex, Jr.

Plenty has been written about Martin Truex, Jr. in the last few months as Truex, Jr. announced 2024 would be his last full season in NASCAR Cup Series competition. 

Truex, Jr.'s full-time career ends after 19 consecutive seasons of full-time competition in the Cup Series. He made 693 starts in his Cup career, 24th most all-time. He won 34 races, 27th all-time. Twice he won the Coca-Cola 600. He won the Southern 500. Truex, Jr. will be most remembered for his 2017 NASCAR Cup Series championship with Denver, Colorado-based Furniture Row Racing. 

There is plenty more we could add. Two championships in NASCAR's second division. Three-time championship runner-up in Cup. A winner in all three national touring series. Truex, Jr. had an incredible career and that is despite the rough start to his Cup career.

His first career victory was on a Monday in his sophomore season. It was a late spring day in Dover, one of many home tracks for the New Jerseyan. A fitting spot for his first triumph, but the second would not come for a long time. 

Caught in the turmoil of Dale Earnhardt, Inc. as Dale Earnhardt, Jr. left the team his father created for Hendrick Motorsports, Truex, Jr. lived through the downfall, and was a member when the team merged with Chip Ganassi Racing. After making the playoffs as a sophomore, he would only crack the top fifteen once in the next three years. He moved to Michael Waltrip Racing and Toyota, where results improved slightly. 

There were two winless seasons at MWR. His winless streak hit six years in June 2013. It felt like Truex, Jr. was going to become a forgotten Cup driver, one who dominated the lower division but couldn't quite crack it in Cup. A man who would be lost to time. Then he won at Sonoma, 218 races after winning at Dover. At the time, the second-longest winless drought behind only Bill Elliott.

Only when it appeared things were turning around did it all circle the drain. 

Truex, Jr. appeared set for another playoff appearance before race manipulation from Michael Waltrip Racing earned the team and Truex, Jr. a penalty. It cost more than a playoff spot as Napa Auto Parts left the team in the aftermath. Truex, Jr. lost his ride in the process for an action he did not commit. 

It could have ended there, but the second half of Truex, Jr.'s career is a redemption story the likes we have never seen in NASCAR.

Furniture Row Racing provided him a landing spot. They went through the suck together in 2024 and then became a surprise championship contender in 2015. The team switched to Toyota in 2016 and was better, but stumbled when one engine failure at Talladega knocked him out of the playoffs. This incident led to another modification of the playoff system to provide insurance for consistent drivers. Playoff points came in handy in 2017, but Truex, Jr. didn't need it. He dominated the championship and won a championship that should have always been his. 

He probably could have won another. He was one of the best in 2018, but lost it in the final race. He fell a spot short again in 2019 and again in 2021.

In another world, Truex, Jr.'s career ends in 2014. He spends the better part of the next five years bouncing around back-marker teams and his farewell goes unnoticed. He becomes a "remember that guy?" the likes of David Stremme or David Reutimann. 

Despite all these twists against him, Truex, Jr. became one of the best drivers of the last decade. He wasn't brash. He wasn't brazen. Truex, Jr. was as gentlemen as they come in 2024, a time when drivers are unhinged nine times out of ten without a care for fellow competitors. 

As much as others raced Truex, Jr. in a way they would not like to be raced, Truex, Jr. never strayed from his beliefs. Truex, Jr. never wrecked a driver to win a race. He never made a desperate move. Perhaps it cost him one championship, but the respect he earned from being himself will far outlive a second title. 

It is remarkable all that Truex, Jr. accomplished considering the wandering he had to do in the first half of his career. He was not in a cozy home until he was at rock-bottom, and even then it would not last long. He succeeded in the most unlikely location. Not many other drivers could have replicated what he did with Furniture Row Racing. It is a success story that will live in NASCAR lore for quite sometime. 

Truex, Jr. will be around. There is a plan he will run the Daytona 500 in February. How many races and how many more years he is around remains unknown. NASCAR in 2025 is not the NASCAR of 2005 where recently retired drivers would still stick around to run seven to ten races for seven to ten years. He may run a few more races, but it is not many more. Part of me wants to see him get to 700 starts. It is a milestone that does not mean much. His career is no lesser ending on 693 or 694 starts. It would be nice to see him join another esteemed club after he could have become one of many members of a less-celebrated establishment. 

For all his success, Truex, Jr. never quite achieved the levels of adulation as some of his contemporaries. The reserved man likely doesn't mind, but he earned it, and his presence will be missed because there are many more Martin Truex, Jr.'s walking through that door, though we could definitely use a few.

Formula One: The Summer Onward

The inevitable happened in Formula One, and yet the 2024 season could not be ending on a better trajectory. 

Max Verstappen clinched his fourth World Drivers' Championship, and Verstappen did it with races to spare. That was the predicted result from 99.9% of observers on January 1, 2024. However, nobody expected this season to be quite like this. 

Verstappen was not in the best car and he had to fight for the title. He benefitted from the Red Bull being clear of the field over the first four months of the season, but the other teams caught and surpassed Red Bull. Verstappen had to do all he could to pull more out the car while living on the cushion established long before we got into summer. He ended up as champion, but with the way the tides are turning, we all know 2025 will not look like 2024 or 2023 or 2022. 

A fifth title will require a fight, a 24-round brawl over nearly nine months. It will not be a walkover. There will be plenty of stout competition. 

Even 2024 was plenty exciting considering the constructors' championship will either go to McLaren or Ferrari. Red Bull has a shot but with Verstappen being a one-man band as Sergio Pérez has fallen off significantly and has not had a top five finish since he was fourth in Miami, it is unlikely Red Bull will take the constructors' crown for a third consecutive season. 

The truth about this season is other than Verstappen in the first ten races, nobody was dominant. McLaren has been the next most consistent, but it has its races where it is not even the second-best team. Ferrari has shined at times, but against does not have that consistency. Mercedes-AMG has been able to pounce on a few weekends but be off the mark in others. 

This is the first season in Formula One history when seven different drivers have multiple victories. There are also 24 races. It is more likely to now than ever before, but it has been a long time since we have seen four teams this competitive. That will carry over to 2025. 

Either they will all remain on the same level and we will see the season ebb and flow with different manufacturers going on hot streaks or one or two will stand out with the others have the occasional good day, steal a victory here or there, but still be clearly off the top. It is Formula One. One team could come out and blow the doors off the rest and we could see a lackluster season, but that does not feel likely.

Let’s consider what the points totals look like since the summer break ended:

Charles Leclerc - 142

Lando Norris - 141

Max Verstappen - 126

Oscar Piastri - 101

George Russell - 101

Carlos Sainz, Jr. - 97

Lewis Hamilton - 58

Sergio Pérez - 21

Pierre Gasly - 20

Esteban Ocon - 18

Fernando Alonso - 13

Nico Hülkenberg - 13

Kevin Magnussen - 9

Alexander Albon - 8

Yuki Tsunoda - 8

Franco Colapinto - 5

Liam Lawson - 4

Oliver Bearman - 1

If the last three months are a sign of what to expect in 2025, we should be pleased. 

December Preview

This is an odd time for motorsports because there is not much to preview and what is left is a tad obscure. 

This space will be used to acknowledge the Super GT championship, which ends on December 8 at Suzuka.

In each class, three entries are alive for the championship with 23 points on the table.

In GT500, the #36 TGR Team au TOM’S Toyota of Sho Tsuboi and Kenta Yamashita lead with 74 points, 18 points ahead of the #100 Stanley Team Kunimitsu Honda of Naoki Yamamoto and Tadasuke Makino and 22 points clear of the #38 TGR Team KeePer CERUMO Toyota of Hiroaki Ishiura and Toshiki Oyu.

The #36 Toyota is the only one of the three title contenders to win a race this season. Tsuboi is attempting to become sixth driver to win the Super Formula and the Super GT GT500 championship in the same season. It would be the second consecutive year for it to happen after Ritomo Miyata did it, and Tsuboi and Miyata were co-drivers last year in Super GT. 

GT300 has the #65 K2 R&D LEON Racing Mercedes-AMG of Naoya Gamou and Takuro Shinohara leading with 84 points with the #88 JLOC Lamborghini of Takashi Kogure and Yuma Motojima 11 points back. The #2 muta Racing INGING Toyota of Yuui Tsutsumi and Hibiki Taira is 20 points off the top. 

The #65 K2 R&D LEON Racing Mercedes-AMG and the #88 JLOC Lamborghini have each won two races with JLOC entering the finale with two wins on the spin. The #2 Toyota won the season opener in Okayama.  

Other events of note in December:

While it is a time of ends, this December is also a time for beginnings. The Formula E and Asian Le Mans Series seasons will each begin this month. 

2024 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

Most championships are complete at this point. Sports car season is basically over, but it is about to start again and it has a few races left to run. The Gulf 12 Hours will take place in a few weeks, and the Asian Le Mans Series season begins in less than two weeks with a doubleheader in Sepang.

But we have to cut the season off somewhere and this year is basically complete when it comes to reviewing our 2024 predictions. We say basically because one pesky championship is not over yet. Either way, we know the answer to most of these and we know how these predictions have played out.

FIA World Endurance Championships

1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes

Correct!

This one was technically achieved in the first race of the season as Porsche went 1-2-3 with its factory cars in first and third and the Hertz Team Jota entry in second at Qatar. 

Porsche then put two more cars on the podium in the second race from Imola and went one-two with Hertz Team Jota winning at Spa-Francorchamps. It was shutout from the podium at Le Mans, but had both factory cars on the podium at Interlagos. Porsche won Fuji and was second in Bahrain.

Porsche ended with 11 combined podium finishes this season, more than double the next best manufacturer. Ferrari and Toyota each combined for five podium finishes. 

2. At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory

Correct!

This one was taken care of very quickly. We had eight first-time overall winners in the first four races. Each race had at least one driver pick up his first career victory.

We had Kévin Estre and Laurens Vanthoor in the opening race from Qatar.

The #7 Toyota won at Imola, a familiar winner in WEC competition, but it was the first overall victory for Nyck de Vries in only his second start in the top class.

In round three, we had Callum Ilott and Will Stevens win at Spa-Francorchamps. 

At Le Mans, Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina and Nicklas Nielsen won overall. 

Then we had Robert Kubica, Robert Shwartzman and Yi Yifei won at Austin. 

There were 11 first-time overall winners this season.

3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more

Wrong!

The #92 Manthey PureRxcing Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Alex Malykhin and Joel Sturm had six podium finishes this season. The #92 Porsche had four podium finishes in the first five races.

Two other entries had three podium finishes. The #91 Manthey EMA Porsche of Richard Lietz, Morris Schuring and Yasser Shahin had three and the #27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Ian James, Daniel Mancinelli and Alex Riberas also had three podium finishes.

4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company

Correct!

With Porsche winning the drivers' championship in both class, it is no surprise that Porsche did it twice.

The #6 Porsche and the #92 Manthey PureRxcing won the classes in the opening round in Qatar. Two races later, the #12 Hertz Team Jota Porsche and the #91 Manthey EMA Porsche split the classes at Spa-Francorchamps. 

Ferrari was the only manufacturer that won in each class this season, but not in the same race. Ferrari won twice overall, Le Mans and Austin. Ferrari also won twice in LMGT3, but it won the final two races at Fuji and Bahrain.

IMSA

5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship

Wrong!

We have already covered this partially, but this was crushing. 

García and the #3 Corvette sat fifth in the championship in the final race. It looked like a long shot for the #3 Corvette to get up to third. Then it significantly out-qualifies the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW and the #14 VasserSuvillan Lexus at Petit Le Mans, the #14 Lexus retired from the race and the #3 Corvette finished ahead of the #1 BMW. 

It was enough to move García up to third and for the 13th consecutive year, García has finished first or third in the championship. This was the third consecutive year García has finished third in the championship. It is bound to end, but it just never seems to.

6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA

Correct!

This one was tight, but we had exactly three drivers win in each WEC and IMSA.

The first driver to achieve it did it in consecutive weekends. Nicklas Nielsen won the 24 Hours of Le Mans and then the following weekend won in LMP2 at Watkins Glen. 

Alex Riberas also won at Watkins Glen in the GTD Pro class, and then he won at LMGT3 in September at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. 

It was getting a little tight on the third winner, but then the #54 AF Corse Ferrari won the LMGT3 class at Fuji with Davide Rigon as one of its drivers. Rigon won the 24 Hours of Daytona in GTD Pro in January. 

It was tight, but it happened. 

7. The Riley Motorsport LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5

Correct!

The #74 Riley Motorsport Oreca ended up second in the LMP2 championship and it had four podium finishes in seven races, but a tenth-place finish at Road America tanked its average finish and it finished at 4.1428. If you remove Road America, the #74 Oreca had an average finish of 3.1667 in the other six races.

8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory

Wrong!

Not only was this one wrong, but there were only four instances of pole-sitters winning a race all season.

No pole-sitter won in either prototype class in the 2024 IMSA season. 

Three times did the pole-sitter in GTD Pro.

The #14 VasserSullivan did it at Sebring, the #3 Corvette did it at Mosport and the #1 Paul Miller Racing did it at Virginia International Raceway in GTD Pro.

The only GTD entry to win from pole position all season was the one race VasserSullivan entered a second Lexus at Long Beach when the #89 Lexus took the victory. 

This was not close, which is interesting at how much it appears qualifying doesn't matter in IMSA. The five endurance races are understandable, but the two-hour and 45-minute races should see the fastest car over one-lap be able to put together a full race. 

Let's keep an eye on this in 2025.

European Le Mans Series

9. The #22 United Autosports entry does not extends its winning streak

Correct!

Not only didn't the #22 United Autosports' entry not win a race, but no United Autosports' entry won in ELMS in 2024. United Autosports had one podium finish all season, third in the season opener at Barcelona, fittingly with the #22 entry.

This was the first season United Autosports did not win in LMP2 since 2016 when it only had entries in the LMP3 class.

10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers

Correct!

Only one Italian driver won the entire season in GT3. It was Andrea Caldarelli in the season finale driving the #63 Iron Lynx Lamborghini. 

Eleven different nationalities won a race in the GT3 class in 2024. The one with the most different winners was Denmark with four different winners. The #50 Formula Racing Ferrari of Conrad Laursen, Johnny Laursen and Nicklas Nielsen won the season opener in an all-Danish effort. Michelle Gatting won at Imola as well. 

Other

11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours

Well...

We don't know yet. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup was supposed to end last weekend, but the finale from Jeddah had been pushed back a week. We had already planned on doing these predictions prior to Thanksgiving. So we don't know yet, and it can go either way.

Technically, any of 12 entries could win the championship this weekend. Three entries are covered by three points and then fourth is 16 points back.

Three of the top four were top five finishers at the Spa 24 Hours. The #7 Comtoyou Racing Aston Martin of Mattia Drudi, Marco Sørensen and Nicki Thiim lead the championship on 54 points and the #7 Aston Martin won at Spa.

Three points back is the #51 AF Corse - Franchorchamps Motors Ferrari of Alessandro and Alessio Rovera, which was second at Spa. Also three points back is the #99 Tresor Attempto Racing Audi of Alex Aka, Ricardo Feller and Christopher Haase, which finished 12th overall at Spa. 

The #163 GRT Grasser Racing Team Lamborghini of Franck Perera, Jordan Pepper and Marco Mapelli is fourth, 16 points back, and it was fifth at Spa.

We will wait and see how this plays out. It is on the fence and can go either way. We will update on Monday.

12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races

Wrong! 

There were multiple stretches with five different manufacturers winning five consecutive races.

From race two to race six: Lamborghini, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari, BMW.

Race eight to race 12: Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG.

Race nine to race 13: Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini. 

Race 11 to race 15: Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, BMW, Audi.

There were four different instances where it happened, but never did six different manufacturers win in six consecutive races. I guess five is the limit.

Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, we are sitting at 7/11 with one to be determined. Being 8/12 is a lot better than being 7/12.

Musings From the Weekend: One Step at a Time

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The inevitable happened. Max Verstappen clinched his fourth consecutive World Drivers' Championship. The drain covers remained in place. It was still a late night for everyone. There was an award show. Some announcers were announced. I might have been a week early on a season finale. Thanksgiving is upon us. People remain impressed by the little things. As the year approaches the end, it is a time to be thinking about the bigger picture, and something has been on my mind for some time.

One Step at a Time

The gripes have been covered extensively over the last few months since the IndyCar season ended.

Whether it be the schedule length, lack of engine manufacturers joining the series, lack of a new chassis, hybrid technology, marketing, start times, regional spread of the series, network broadcasting, streaming broadcasts, star power, horsepower, commentators, sponsors, charters, Mark Miles, Roger Penske, social media silence, LED panels, every knit that you can pick has been covered and we aren't even into December yet. We are just under 100 days until the 2025 season opener. We will not hit the halfway point of the offseason until December 8. There will be plenty more to pick apart.

At some point, we will focus on the races, the championship, the yearly Penske vs. Ganassi title fight, find more to complain about, and then wonder why nothing is great while ignoring the good that is around because it is not good enough to some lofty and unrealistic standard. 

Only so much finger pointing can be done before things need to stop and a plan must be established for what comes next. You can be happy about how things are going, but being angry about the present and not having an outline for the future is not helpful. 

There is a truth you must keep in mind when thinking about IndyCar's future. 

It cannot be everything that everyone expects it to be. 

For a series' that's entire identity is basically one race, it is expected to be the world and then some. 

It must be an oval series, but also run all these great road courses while also having street course shows to attract different viewers. It is American and must be in every part of the country, but it also must be international and go all over the world. It must avoid football to maximize viewership while also race during football season to maximize viewership. It must promote more but Heaven forbid it does something untraditional to try and attract new fans and not cater to the people already watching. It must spend more money but not lose more money than it already losing. 

There is no way to check all these boxes. It is at the limit but it must be more. In that scenario, it will never truly be seen as successful even if it does all it can with the resources available. 

That is a tough place to be at, but this should be the time to recognize what the series is up against and at least properly adjust expectations of what the series can be in the short-term and the long-term. 

Nothing will change in time for 2025, but things are already in motion for 2026. The Arlington street race has already been announced for March of that year. Races in Mexico City and São Paulo have been rumored. There is plenty of time between now and then announcement of the 2026 calendar. Arlington could be the only addition, or the schedule could see a shift.

What is realistic is IndyCar expanding beyond where it currently races. At the moment, there are four races along the Pacific Coast and then nothing until Iowa. Once past Iowa, the series only goes as far east as Toronto and St. Petersburg, Florida. Arlington will fill part of the middle of the country, but the absence on the Eastern corridor of the United States, which will be pushing seven seasons come 2026, is a major letdown for the series. Without any races in the area, a large population of the country does not have access to an IndyCar race. 

IndyCar is constantly living for now. It is constantly making the decision that benefits the series in the moment because it needs money now, but it must start making some decisions for the long-term. The series must adjust its decision making and take a few chances with long-term hopes in mind that require patience.

The series must ask, “Does it need three races in California?” What is better, a Laguna Seca race that might draw 10,000 spectators or a Pocono race that will draw 25,000 people or a Loudon or Richmond race that will draw 20,000 people? Thermal is paying now, but are there enough one-percenters joining the series as team owners, series partners and sponsors that justifies a race at a facility that is severely limited in attendance and is not reaching the common man, the ones that can actually boost viewership? 

If IndyCar is limited to 17 races on a schedule then it must make the most of those 17 races, and that might require some tough decisions. Laguna Seca has had some good races since it returned, but if it isn't drawing a respectable crowd and the series can draw something significantly better in a different part of the country that it is currently not visiting, then IndyCar should make a change. 

For 2026, there should be a commitment from the series to race in areas where it isn't. It must be willing to take a five-year chance on racing in the Northeast and along the East Coast. It should find two tracks, doesn't matter if they are both ovals in Pocono and Richmond or an oval and Watkins Glen or two road courses, and say it is going to run there for five years. It cannot continue to be absent. It must establish a presence and see if it can grow. 

That is only a step, but that is a more likely way of growing the series than continuing to race in the same areas, over-saturating a few markets and remaining stagnant. That will likely also require accepting some changes that we do not want to make, but IndyCar cannot be a 25-race schedule at this time. Maybe it can add a weekend or two but even with those new races, it cannot be everything that everyone wants it to be. 

It is more than just scheduling. Location, location, location is important, but the series must produce faces that are recognizable outside of the current bubble. It is clear people will watch motorsports without making it about racing. There is a way to make those competing relatable without making it all about the racing. 

A plan is a reasonable expectation, but no plan is any good without an attempt. There is definitely a plan, but we are tired of plans from IndyCar. When it feels like every other major series in the world has taken chances and done bold new things since 2020 when it felt like the motorsports world was on the verge of collapsing, IndyCar hasn't. It feels like a series that has been stuck and if anything it has shrunk but mostly due to choice and lack of ambition. We are ready for the series to take chance because what it has been doing for the last four years has not produced any notable growth. 

These problems will not disappear overnight, but it is time to acknowledge what the series can realistically be and move in that direction, tough decisions and all. 

Champions From the Weekend

You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

Thierry Neuville clinched the World Rally Championship with a sixth-place finish in Rally Japan.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about some champions, but did you know...

George Russell won the Las Vegas Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.

Elfyn Evans won Rally Japan.

Coming Up This Weekend

Formula One travels right around the quarter from Las Vegas to Qatar for the penultimate round of the season.

Across the Arabian peninsula will be the Jeddah 1000km, the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup.

Turkey Night Grand Prix will be run in Ventura, California.

Career Retrospective: Nigel Mansell

Our Career Retrospective series returns for a fourth year, as we have another batch of past IndyCar drivers to consider. We will look at a few drivers and how they ended up in IndyCar, what they did while competing in the series and how the series changed between the driver's first appearance and today. 

There is another theme in this year's set of drivers. It might not seem obvious, but it will become obvious once we get to the end.

The final part of this three-part series takes us to the most famous of the three drivers in this year's series. His career spans well beyond IndyCar. Most people probably only know him for what he did prior to arriving in IndyCar at the age of 39. It was quite a career, you can forgive those if they forget about his time in IndyCar, but this move was a pivotal point in global motorsports. The World Drivers' Champion left Formula One for IndyCar. The rest is history.

It is Nigel Mansell.

Where was Mansell coming from?

Formula One, and a lengthy career at that. 

Mansell debuted in 1980 with Lotus and remained with the historic team for one of its low points through the early part of the decade. Lotus was not what it had been in the 1960s or 1970s. Plagued with unreliable cars, Mansell was struggling for results. He became the defined number two driver to Elio de Angelis in 1983 and 1984.

Frank Williams hired Mansell to join Keke Rosberg at Williams F1. Driving with a Honda engine, Mansell was a more competitive driver, and he closed the 1985 season with his first two grand prix victories at Brands Hatch and Kyalami. 

With five victories in the 1986 season, led the championship entering the season finale from Adelaide. Eighteen laps from the finish and in third place, Mansell suffered a tire puncture and it cost him the title to Alain Prost. Mansell made another championship push in 1987 with six victories, but an accident in qualifying from Suzuka ended his season two races early.

Honda left Williams for the 1988 season, and Judd engines were placed in the Williams and were highly unreliable. Mansell retired from 12 of 14 starts. In the other two, he was runner-up and he missed two races due to the chickenpox. 

Enzo Ferrari selected Mansell to drive the team for the 1989 season just prior to Ferrari’s death in 1988. Mansell won on debut in Brazil, but the car could not regularly compete the McLarens. He had a strong summer, but finished fourth in the championship. Results dipped in 1990 with Alain Prost as his teammate. Prost competed for the title while Mansell scored one fewer points and finished one spot worse in the championship than in 1989. 

Mansell announced he would retire after the 1990 season, but Williams came offering a seat. Mansell demanded number one status in the team, and an assurance the organization and its engine supplier Renault. Williams agreed to the terms. 

Ayrton Senna and McLaren were still on top, but Mansell and Williams gave the Brazilian fits over the season. Mansell and his teammate Riccardo Patrese ended up second and third in the championship.

Williams further developed the FW14 into the FW14B, and it became one of the most dominant cars in series history. Mansell opened the season with five consecutive victories. He won eight of the first ten races. A runner-up finish in the 11th round, the Hungarian Grand Prix, clinched Mansell the world championship with five races remaining. He ended the year with a single-season record of victories. He won 14 pole positions, 88% of the races, and that remains the highest pole position percentage in a single year. 

What did IndyCar look like when Mansell started in the series?

IndyCar was still primarily North American-based. The 1993 season was only its third trip to Australia. While it raced at Surfers Paradise, it also ran in Nazareth, Pennsylvania and a new track in Loudon, New Hampshire. Of the 16 races, six were on ovals, six were on temporary courses and four were on permanent road courses. 

World champions were nothing new to IndyCar. Mario Andretti was well into his second stint in IndyCar. Emerson Fittipaldi had been present for nearly a decade. Along with those two, there were a few Formula One veterans on the grid, including Raul Boesel, Two Fabi, Stefan Johansson and Roberto Guerrero. 

Six different teams had won the previous six CART championships. Three of those teams were single-car operations. Five of those champions were American drivers, and 13 of the first 14 CART seasons had an American champion. Chip Ganassi Racing was entering its fourth season of competition. It had yet to win a race. 

Six other drivers who made their IndyCar debuts in the 1993 season opener. They were Andrea Montermini, Robbie Buhl, Mark Smith, Marco Greco, Gary Brabham and Andrea Chiesa. 

How does IndyCar look now?

IndyCar competes exclusively on the North American continent. It has been just over 11 years since it has raced somewhere other than the United States or Canada. There are no races at Surfers Paradise, Nazareth or Loudon. Nazareth is grown over. Of the 17 races in 2024, seven were on ovals but there were only five oval circuits. There were four temporary venues, but there were supposed to be five. Six permanent road courses host a race. 

In the 2024 season, no past World Drivers' Champions competed in a race. It has been four years since a past World Drivers' Champion ran an IndyCar race. That would be Fernando Alonso in the Indianapolis 500. Prior to Alonso, the most recent past World Drivers' Champion to start an IndyCar race was Jacques Villeneuve, who made a one-off start in the 2014 Indianapolis 500. There has not been a past World Drivers' Champion full-time in IndyCar since Emerson Fittipaldi in 1996, a year in which Fittipaldi's career was cut short due to an accident at Michigan with four races remaining in the season.

Two teams combined to have won the last 12 championship. Three teams have combined to win the 17 championship since reunification. Chip Ganassi Racing has four of the last five titles, and 11 of the last 17 championships. The Ganassi organization has won 16 IndyCar championships.

There has not been an American championship in the last five seasons, and American drivers have combined to win only three of the last 17 titles.

What did Mansell do in-between?

Mansell started with a bang, winning on debut from pole position after a back-and-forth race with Emerson Fittipaldi at Surfers Paradise. 

A practice accident at Phoenix knocked Mansell out of the car for the second round, but he only missed one race and he finished third at Long Beach. At Indianapolis, he qualified eighth, and he was a front-runner the entire race. He led 34 laps, but was passed on a restart with 16 laps remaining and fell back to third. He managed to finish third despite brushing the wall in the closing stages.

Despite the Indianapolis disappointment, Mansell won the next race at Milwaukee. He had six podium finishes in the first eight races. He won back-to-back races at Michigan and Loudon, the latter occurring on his 40th birthday. These victories put Mansell in control of the championship with five races remaining. 

Consistent finishes followed and victory at Nazareth in the penultimate race of the season clinched Mansell the CART championship with a race to spare. 

Returning for the 1994 season, Mansell started well with two podium finishes in the first three races. His second Indianapolis 500 ended just prior to halfway when Dennis Vitolo spun under caution and collided with Mansell's car, parking the year-old Lola on Mansell's shoulders. 

Despite sitting third in the championship with three podium finishes and five top five finishes through the first eight races, Mansell had yet to win in the 1994 season. The second half of his year was rocky. He retired from five of the final eight races. His best finish was seventh despite starting no worse than fourth over that stretch. In 14 of 16 races, Mansell started inside the top four with his worst starting position being ninth. 

This poor run dropped Mansell to eighth in the final championship standings on 88 points, 137 points behind champion Al Unser, Jr. Mansell was two points behind Raul Boesel and nine points ahead of Teo Fabi. 

During the 1994 season, Mansell returned to Formula One to drive for Williams. David Coulthard had taken over a race seat after the death of Ayrton Senna. Mansell ran the French Grand Prix during a break in the CART season. He qualified second, 0.077 seconds off teammate Damon Hill, but a gearbox failure ended his race after 45 laps.

Mansell returned for the final three races of the season and he finished fourth in Japan and he won the Australian Grand Prix from pole position after Hill and Michael Schumacher tangled as they battled for the world championship. 

After the 1994 season, Williams decided to run Coulthard full-time in the 1995 season. Mansell signed to drive for McLaren, receiving help from Bernie Ecclestone to get Mansell out of his Newman-Haas contract. Mansell missed the first two races as he could not fit in the car. A widened McLaren MP4/10 was ready for the San Marino Grand Prix, but he finished tenth clashing with Eddie Irvine while competing for points. He retired from the Spanish Grand Prix due to handling issues, and he decided to retire for good from Formula One then and there.

What impression did Mansell leave on IndyCar?

It remains the mountaintop for IndyCar. 

The World Drivers' Champion left Formula One for IndyCar. It does not get bigger than that, and it hasn't come close. 

Mansell took a healthy IndyCar Series and turned it in an international phenomenon overnight. Formula One viewership suffered and was particularly low come 1994 after the death of Senna combined with the absence of any past world champions. Prost was on sabbatical though he would never return to driving. Mansell was drawing bigger crowds in the United States than any of these venues had ever seen, and there was increasingly more interest from outside the United States in CART.

The best driver in world came and did what you expected the best driver in the world to do. Mansell won immediately, but he also adapted. Four of his five victories came on ovals, an entirely new discipline for him. He nearly won the Indianapolis 500, but he won the Michigan 500 in dominating fashion, leading over 90% of the race. He won on the short ovals at Milwaukee, Loudon and Nazareth. His road and street course form was still stellar, but he didn't fall back on his known skill set to win the championship. 

There has been no free agent signing that has come close to matching what Mansell did for IndyCar. Seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson moved to IndyCar and that was barely a blip in comparison to Mansell's move almost 30 years prior. Part of that has to do with how far IndyCar has fallen since The Split. A good portion of that has to do with how seismic of a move Mansell to IndyCar was. 

For as memorable as this was, the Mansell years were only two. He only won in one of those seasons. Like Mark Blundell and A.J. Allmendinger, Mansell was a one-year wonder, but he was the greatest of them all. 

A driver moving to another series on the verge of 40 years of age was never going to stay for long. Mansell did not become a staple on the IndyCar grid for a decade, someone a fanbase could grow up with. It was a brief moment that vanished. All the good that it did was quickly lost when The Split happened. 

It is hard to fathom something like this happening again. There is too much money in Formula One and nowhere near as much in IndyCar. Formula One drivers have no desire to leave even if the schedule has expanded to an exhaustive length. As much as Formula One drivers would like to leave that circus, they also know it is far more money they could make anywhere else. As much as they may wish to try the Indianapolis 500 or 24 Hours of Le Mans or any other motorsports series, they can make money in Formula One. It is far from a guarantee they can do that elsewhere. 

Mansell hasn't been around IndyCar since he left IndyCar. We do not see Mansell drop in for a random race at Mid-Ohio or Gateway. I don't even know if he attended any of the many anniversary Indianapolis 500s we had around the centennial celebration and centennial running. For as great as his one season was in IndyCar, it is not the defining moment of his career even if it was the defining moment for motorsports in the early 1990s. 

For as great as Roger Penske is in 2024, he couldn't do what Paul Newman and Carl Haas did ahead of the 1993 season. Sadly, Penske wouldn't have the ambition either. Penske would have to pay the equivalent of double entire season prize fund to get Max Verstappen to run for one season or Lewis Hamilton to join the series or have Lando Norris or Charles Leclerc switch at the start of their primes. Frankly, I am not sure any of them would leave.

Formula One has been their dreams. If they are making $20-40 million a year to race in Formula One, I don't think $60-80 million a year, or $100 million a year in the case of Verstappen, would get them to switch to IndyCar. Yes, it would be more money, but I don't think their hearts would be in it. There might be some prestige in Indianapolis, but outside of that, no race compares to even the most passionless grand prix. 

We will never see the equivalent of what Mansell did. Never is a strong word to use, but unless there is a major shakeup in the motorsports world, this will remain a one of a kind event that will only become more inexplicable as time goes on. 

2024 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

It might not have been the planned location for the 2024 MotoGP season finale, but the two-wheel world championship ended on its scheduled date last Sunday in Barcelona, and it marked the end of the motorcycle racing season. It was a good year for first-time champions and European manufacturers. A few notable competitors are calling it time on their careers. A few others are getting ready to go once again in 2025. The winter is not long, and testing has already begun for next year.

Before we get there, we should look back on predictions made for a few of these championships, checking to see how they turned out. 

MotoGP

1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix

Correct!

Last season, no rider won consecutive races. It was the first time there was no consecutive race winner since the inaugural six-race season in 1949. 

This year, there were exactly three occasions where a rider won consecutive grand prix. 

Francesco Bagnaia had a four-race winning streak with victories in Catalunya, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany.

Marc Márquez would win consecutive races at Arágon and Misano. 

It was getting dicey at the end of the season, but then Bagnaia won in Thailand and Malaysia. That was the third occasion and the victory in the Barcelona finale to cap off his season with three consecutive victories was just a cherry on top. 

2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship

Correct!

Márquez was third in the championship, and you would think third would have been great, but Márquez nearly fell short in this prediction. 

Due to Ducati's dominance, it took the top four spots in the 2024 championship. Márquez was third-best among the Ducati riders, exactly within where he needed to be in this prediction. Except Márquez was only six points ahead of Ducati factory rider Enea Bastiannini! Márquez was outside the top ten in three of the final six races, keeping Bastiannini in touching distance. 

Márquez did enough to get there but if you told me Márquez would finish third in the championship, I would have guessed he achieved this prediction with comfort. It was anything but that during the final weekend from Barcelona.

3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified

Wrong!

Last season, there were six races where fewer than 15 riders took the checkered flag, meaning not every points position was paid out. This year, 19 races saw all 15 points paying spots awarded. That would have been great in almost every other MotoGP season... except this one. 

There was one race where fewer than 15 riders finished. In Indonesia, only 12 riders took the checkered flag. It was the 15th race of the season. We were so close. Damn!

4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019

Correct!

Acosta had to finish at least eighth in the championship for this prediction to be correct. Acosta ended up sixth on 215 points, 42 points to the good from what he needed to be and only two points behind Brad Binder in fifth. 

Acosta started the season with two podium finishes in the first three races. He had some rough days, but he did have six podium finishes this season. He was in the top five in seven races. At Motegi, he started on pole position, and he won two of the first three sprint races this season, and he also picked up fastest lap on debut. 

Sixth in the championship is the best championship result for a rookie since Fabio Quartararo in 2019. 

5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season

Wrong!

Very wrong. Yamaha and Honda went in the wrong direction. They combined for five podium finishes last year. They combined for zero podium finishes this year. No Japanese bike finished in the top five this season. The best finis was sixth in Malaysia with Fabio Quartararo on his Yamaha. Quartararo was 13th in the championship, the best rider on a Japanese bike. 

I don't know how to paint a more bleak picture than this prediction. 

6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second

Correct!

Entering 2024, Moto2 had gone 29 consecutive races without a race being decided by less than a tenth of a second. 

How did the 2024 season begin? 

Alonso López won the season opener in Qatar by 0.055 seconds over Barry Batlus.

Boom! One race and it was achieved. 

There were three other races with a margin of victory under a tenth of a second. 

Joe Roberts won in Mugello by 0.067 seconds over Manuel González. 

Celestino Vietti won the second Misano race by 0.029 seconds over Arón Canet.

Canet won the Barcelona finale by 0.091 seconds over González.

We went about a season-and-a-half with no races decided by less than a tenth of a second. We had four this season alone. 

I say we made up for lost time and then some. 

7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races

Wrong!

Leopard Racing won once with rookie Ángel Piqueras winning the San Marino and Rimini Riviera Grand Prix from Misano, but that was it for the team that has won at least four races in six of the previous nine seasons. 

I don't think anyone saw David Alonso winning 14 of 20 races. That had a role in a lack of Leopard victories.

Piqueras was the last rider not named David Alonso to win this season. Piqueras was second to Alonso in the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix from Misano, the start of Alonso's seven-race winning streak to end the season. That was Piqueras' only runner-up finish. He had two third-place finishes. 

His teammate Adrián Fernández had three podium finishes all season, second in Indonesia before a pair of thirds in Japan and Australia.

8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium

Correct!

There was one race all MotoE season with an all-Spanish podium, and it was smack-dab in the middle of the season, the first race of the Dutch TT weekend from Assen, the ninth of 16 races. But it wasn't an all-Spanish podium originally. 

Héctor Garzó won the race, his first victory of the season, but Italian Alessandro Zaccone was second. However, Zaccone was disqualified due to a tire pressure infringement. This promoted Spaniard Oscar Gutiérrez up to second, and Spaniard Jordi Torres went from fourth to third. It is the first all-Spanish podium in MotoE history. 

That is one way to get a prediction correct.

World Superbike

9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.

Wrong!

The hilarious thing about this prediction is that despite Rea's struggles on the Yamaha in his first season with the make, he did get on the podium. 

The problem is he only got on the podium once, and where did he finish? 

Third, of course! Third in the SuperPole race from Donington Park! 

It was a rough season and Yamaha declined and Rea was the third-best Yamaha rider. He also missed five races due to injury, but Rea ended up 13th in the championship and he did not win a race in a World Superbike season for the first time since 2008 when he only ran the final round as a wild card entry after taking second in the World Supersport championship.

10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024

Correct!

And not only did we get two riders, but we had three riders do it in 2024. 

The first was in the opening round. We were halfway to this prediction being correct after one round. Alex Lowes won the SuperPole race and race two from Phillip Island on his Kawasaki. 

We had to wait a little bit longer for the next one. It did not help that Toprak Razgatlioglu won 13 consecutive races and 15 of the next 18 races after Phillip Island. If it wasn't for Razgatlioglu's injury in practice from Magny-Cours, we might not have seen a second different rider who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 do so in 2024. 

With Razgatlioglu out, Andrea Locatelli won the first race, but Nicolò Bulega won the SuperPole race and race two in France. 

There you have it, prediction met! But there is more!

After Magny-Cours, World Superbike visited the Cremona Circuit in Italy for the first time. Razgatlioglu was still recovering from the back injury suffered two weeks prior in France. Danilo Petrucci went on to sweep the round in his home country. 

Bulega would go on to win consecutive races again in the season finale from Jerez, but three different riders won consecutive races after only Razgatlioglu and Álvaro Bautista (who did win consecutive races in 2024 at Aragón) were the only two riders with consecutive victories last season. 

At least that kept it interesting. 

Supercross/Motocross

11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds

Uh... technically, wrong!

When this predictions were made, I stated any absence due to injury would not count. Lawrence injured his thumb in the middle of the Motocross season and he did not run the final six rounds of the season. 

So those don't count. What about the 17 Supercross races and the first five rounds of the Motocross season?

In Supercross, Lawrence's longest winless streak was three races on two occasions. He won eight of 17 races and claimed the championship relatively comfortably over Cooper Webb. 

In Motocross, Lawrence swept the first two races of the season opener from Fox Raceway. Then Chase Sexton swept the Hangtown races. Hunter Lawrence won the first race from Thunder Valley, but then Jett won four consecutive races until he was second in the second race from Southwick. 

Then he injured his thumb and his season was over.

The longest Jett Lawrence went without a victory in 2024 was three races. 

12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds

Wrong!

Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combined to win three rounds. 

It started with an unexpected victory for Aaron Plessinger at San Diego. It would be one of three podium finishes for Plessinger, and his season ended five races early after suffering an injury. He was 11th in the championship.

Ken Roczen won in Glendale, and he had a good season going. Roczen had three podium finishes through the first six races. He had six podium finishes in 13 races. Then he was injured in Nashville and that ended his season early, knocking him down to seventh in the championship.

Then there was Eli Tomac. It was not a strong season for Tomac, but he had some good runs. His only victory was the Triple Crown weekend in St. Louis. However, a thumb injury sidelined Tomac for the finale at Salt Lake City, and subsequently the first nine Motocross weekends. This left him fourth in the final championship standings. 

It was closer, but how close was it? 

Tomac had the best ride in Arlington. After a fall on lap two, he was 16th, nearly 13 seconds off the lead. He ended up finishing second, three seconds behind Cooper Webb. It was one of five runner-up finishes Tomac had this season. 

Jason Anderson had a pair of runner-up results, behind Jett Lawrence in the Anaheim season opener and behind Roczen at Glendale. Obviously, trading Andersen for Roczen would mean we still would have had only three victories for riders outside the top three. 

Roczen was second to Lawrence at Indianapolis, so that could have been the fourth victory we needed.

Hunter Lawrence was second to his brother Jett at Denver. Justin Cooper was second in the season finale in Salt Lake City to Chase Sexton. 

There were plenty of close calls, but close was not good enough here.

Six-for-12. Better than last year. Not great. Not bad. Middle of the road. Some were close, but we already established good is not good enough. It could be worse though. Hopefully it is better in 2025.

Musings From the Weekend: Unsatisfying and Complicated

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Ugo Ugochukwu became the second American to win the Macau Grand Prix. MotoGP's season went to the final lap in Barcelona, and it unveiled a new logo. A historic season came to a close in one of the lower ranks. Supercars' season ended a day early at Adelaide with a dead rubber on Sunday. IMSA did some testing. Chip Ganassi Racing is loaning out a few drivers to Meyer Shank Racing for sports car purposes. Alpine will have Mercedes engines come 2026. However, it is not about looking ahead. It is about looking back to last week and the conclusion to the NASCAR season.

Unsatisfying and Complicated

Discontent was noticeable in the days following NASCAR's season finale weekend from Phoenix. It was bubbling long before the green flag waved for the start of the final race. The events of the previous week at Martinsville had left a sour taste in the mouths of many, and the finale was equally as likely to have a tart outcome. 

When Joey Logano won the race and claimed his third championship, 2024 became another season trying to justify the results of the season. 

For the second consecutive year, the record for fewest top five finishes for a champion in NASCAR's modern era has been reset. Logano had seven. For the second consecutive year, the champion had the worst average finish in NASCAR Cup Series history. Logano's average of 17.111 was over three positions worse than Ryan Blaney's average of 14.0833 last year. Three of the four worst average finishes among Cup champions have come in the last three seasons, and the bottom five have all occurred since the introduction of the elimination format in 2014. 

Somebody has to be the worst of the best. There is bound to be a year when good is actually good enough, but in the last few years below-average has been enough to be champion far too often.

That isn't Joey Logano's fault. It is the system. Don't hate the player, hate the game. Regardless of who it was, anyone who had Logano's season and wound up champion would feel unsatisfying, and that is because the final result really did not match what we saw over the nine-month season. 

If you have been watching from the start, you know the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season did not have one or two dominant drivers. It had a few periods where different drivers stood on top, but those same drivers would go through spells where results would not go their way.

Kyle Larson won six times, more than any other driver, but he only finished in the top ten in exactly half the races. As often as we celebrated a Larson victories, it felt like we were spending equally as much time wondering how he threw a race away. William Byron started hot, winning three of the first eight races, and then wasn't much of a threat until October. Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell each looked like the best driver for portions of the season and then would have a bad race or two. Denny Hamlin looked good for a moment. There wasn't a clear best driver this season, but at no point over the first 32 races did we think the best was Logano. 

At the end of the regular season, Logano had as many finishes outside the top 25 as he did top ten finishes (eight). 

Only once in the regular season did Logano have consecutive top ten finishes, a second at Richmond and a sixth at Martinsville. 

On two separate occasions, Logano went at least four consecutive races without a top ten finish, including a six-race run that followed his two consecutive top ten finishes in Virginia. 

At no point this season did Logano have consecutive top five finishes. His average finish in the regular season was 18.346. The average grid size in the first 26 races was 37.5 cars. Over the regular season, on average, Logano was barely finishing in the top half of the field. 

That doesn't scream champion, but cinderella runs exist in sports. Except, the final ten weeks didn't feel like a fairy tale either. 

Logano won three playoff races, credit to him, but those were his only top five finish finishes all playoffs. He had two other top ten finishes. He had as many finishes 28th or worse as he did victories in the final ten races. 

Again, not Logano's fault, but the system's. 

Anyone who had that kind of regular season combined with that kind of postseason was not going to feel like a champion that truly represented the events of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. 

It has become common to compare NASCAR to the stick-and-ball sports and the outcomes of those seasons, but motorsports does not compare, and we know this!

Thirty-three drivers competed in all 36 races this season. Erik Jones missed two races due to a back injury, but 34 drivers compete in at least 94% of the races. The average grid size over the entire season was 37.777 cars. We had 36 examples of these drivers competing against each other. In no stick-and-ball sport do the same teams compete against one another 36 times a year. Hell, even baseball had divisional opponents only facing each other 18 times a year until recently. 

Playoffs exist in other sports due to schedule imbalance, size of the leagues and geography. It is a 68-team NCAA men's basketball tournament because there are 351 teams at the Division I level. It is not feasible for all 351 teams to play against one another. A tournament with the best teams from conferences largely determined by region is the best way to determine who is best. Even the Cinderellas are a wicked step-sister somewhere. The Florida Atlantic team that made the Final Four two years ago was still a 31-3 team entering the tournament. It won far more than it lost. 

The best teams don't always win, but the winner at least feels fitting. The 2007 New England Patriots may have lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, ending its perfect season, but the New York Giants still went 10-6, one of only 11 teams to win at least ten games that season. The New England Patriots didn't lose the Super Bowl to a 6-10 team that entered the Super Bowl on a three-game losing streak and had lost seven of the previous eight games. 

The best might not always win, but more times than not the champion should at least feel fitting, and that has not been the case for the last few seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series. It has become increasingly too common. 

The ten-race "Chase" format might have been equally as untraditional as the current elimination format, but the champion after those ten races at least felt more satisfying. None of them felt fortunate. None felt lucky. It was hard to be consistent over ten races, but more importantly, if you made the Chase, whether it be a ten-driver or 12-driver field, it at least felt like you earned your spot. There was a clear bottom you had to be above to make the playoffs. 

Tony Stewart didn't have the greatest regular season in 2011, but he at least earned that spot by finishing ninth in points over 26 races. A victory at Talladega or in the Brickyard 400 didn't make up for a regular season with only four top five finishes and 11 finishes outside the top twenty. Playoffs spots required being at your top over 26 races. One day in the sun wasn't going to erase 25 days of rain. 

Once Stewart made the playoffs, his performance actually improved. He won five of ten races. He ended the season with four consecutive top five finishes and six consecutive top ten finishes. Stewart reached the threshold to make the playoffs and then in the playoffs he performed better than everybody else. With this current system, we can see drivers be bum-average for 26 races and remain mostly bum-average for the playoffs, but timely victories can lead to a championship, and that is not a good thing. 

Where can NASCAR go from here? I think championship-winning crew chief Cole Pearn might have had the best idea. 

Go off YTD point standings all year, top 16 get in playoffs. If you win in a round you advance, the remaining spots are filled by the YTD point standings that are being added to with each playoff race. Very high chance the best cars all make the last race, winner take all.

— Cole Pearn (@colepearn) November 13, 2024

Stop with the "win-and-your-in" nonsense. It was bad enough Harrison Burton made the playoffs with top ten finishes, and we nearly had Austin Dillon also make the playoffs with three top ten finishes and an average finish of 22.884 over 26 races. It is ok to set a floor for the playoff field and not have it be a floating line that can fall on rock-bottom. 

If you want to make playoff races matter more, fine, have the winners of each race in a playoff round advance. Make those victories carry more weight, but don't reset the points. Don't have the hocus pocus junk that is playoff points be what separate drivers after a round.

Take the top 16 after 26 races and add 1,000 to their points total, but the 274-point gap between Tyler Reddick in first and Kyle Busch in 16th would remain. Nine spots in the second round are still guaranteed to decided on points, but for Kyle Busch in 16th, he would still be 116 points outside the top nine. He would have some work to do to advance without a victory. A victory still gets him through, and his best strategy might be to swing for the fences over three weeks. 

Not resetting the points would be more rewarding for the best drivers over the entire season. It means they are more likely to advance on points each round but they aren't going to take it easy because there will be a constant fight to be the best in points over the entire season. That driver will be guaranteed a spot in the final four for the final race. Think about that. The best in points after 35 races will at least have a shot at the championship. Isn't that what we at least want? The top drivers aren't going to be dogging it for nine weeks. That competition will remain high while there will be drivers who know overcoming 116 points in three races will not happen and victory is their only realistic chance of advancing to the next round. 

As for those who don't want points racing in the regular season and want drivers incentivized to win the most races possible, increase the points total for a victory. Make it 100 points to win a race and keep second place worth 35 points. NASCAR's biggest issue regardless of the points system is not how much a victory is worth, but rather proportionally how much second and third and so on are worth. If second pays 87.5% the amount of points as a victory then second place isn't that bad.

It is worth ,pre with stage points. A driver can win the race and not have the most points. That should never be the case. Make it so even if a driver wins both stages and finishes second, at best that is worth 55% of a victory. That is a simple change that rewards winning. The more wins you have, the more likely you will make the playoffs. Winning one race and averaging a 22nd-place finish will likely not get you a playoff spot, but winning one-race with an average of 15th might get you an extra two or three spots over drivers that do not win in the regular season.

NASCAR is too far gone to go back to where it was, but it can make some simple changes to at least have a more satisfying champion, and one that at least feels representative of the entire season. It can have an uncomplicated system with an established bottom that ensures the best over an entire season are competing for a championship and not ten good drivers with six guys that fell ass backward into a victory. 

If there is one thing we know from NASCAR is it will tinker when things are bad in hopes of making it better. We have enough evidence from 20-plus years of playoff formats to know what works and what doesn't work. The current structure is the best it has been in combining consistent results over the entire season and elevating the status of a race victory. It can be better and NASCAR cannot be afraid to trade some of the manufactured drama for sporting integrity. 

Champions From the Weekend

Jorge Martín clinched the MotoGP championship with a third-place finish in Barcelona. 

Will Brown clnched the Supercars championship with a runner-up finish in the first race from Adelaide.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Ugo Ugochukwu, but did you know...

Francesco Bagnaia won the Solidarity Grand Prix of barcelona and the sprint race. Arón Can't won the Moto2 race, his fourth victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his seventh consecutive victory and his 14th victory of the season.

Broc Feeney and Will Brown split the Supercars races from Adelaide.

Maro Engel won the FIA GT World Cup from Macau. Thed Björk and Dušan Borkovič split the Guia Race.

Coming Up This Weekend

Fomrula One hopes to avoid the mayhem in Las Vegas thisyear. 

Jeddah hosts the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance cup finale.

Rally Japan closes out the World Rally Championship season. 

Career Retrospective: A.J. Allmendinger

Our Career Retrospective series returns for a fourth year, as we have another batch of past IndyCar drivers to consider. We will look at a few drivers and how they ended up in IndyCar, what they did while competing in the series and how the series changed between the driver's first appearance and today. 

There is another theme in this year's set of drivers. It might not seem obvious, but it will become obvious once we get to the end.

The second part of this three-part series will be a driver who has made his name in a different discipline, but his short time at the top of North American open-wheel racing was inspiring. As a young driver, he was thrilling, but raw. Once everything clicked, it was clear he would be a winner. His career hit a rough patch and appeared lost, until it sprung an opportunity. It led to a rush of success and a near championship seemingly out of nowhere. However, the signs of the times led him away from a race winning seat. The Split drained away talent as money and opportunity was not in either of the series. Eighteen years later, the greatest thought is what could have been. 

It is A.J. Allmendinger.

Where was Allmendinger coming from?

From his home in Los Gatos, California, Allmendinger started in quarter-midgets and karting before making his way into the Barber Dodge Pro Series system. He made three starts in 2001, and he finished sixth in his third start in Vancouver. This led to a full-time ride in 2002.

Prior to the full season in the Barber Dodge Pro championship, Allmendinger won the Team USA Scholarship and went to New Zealand to run a few New Zealand Formula Ford championship rounds. In the New Zealand Grand Prix at Teretonga Park, Allmendinger and Team USA teammate Bryan Sellers both  finished on the podium. Sellers was second and Allmendinger was third behind future Supercars race winner Fabian Coulthard. That was the high point for Allmendinger, as he competed in seven of the 16 races and finished 11th in the championship.

Back in Barber Dodge Pro, he opened the season with a pair of victories and four victories in the first five races. Over the ten-race season, Allmendinger never finished worse than fourth and he easily won the championship.

Allmendinger's 2002 season led to a shot with Carl Russo's RuSPORT in the Atlantic Championship for the 2003 season. His winning ways continued at the next level. Allmendinger won seven of 12 races competing against the likes of Ryan Dalziel, Michael Valiante, Danica Patrick, Joey Hand and Luis Díaz. Allmendinger's success led RuSPORT to move up to Champ Car for the 2004 season.

What did IndyCar look like when Allmendinger started in the series?

The state of North American open-wheel racing also led to RuSport's move up. 

CART was gone. Bankrupt at the end of 2003, the series was sold with Kevin Kalkhoven, Gerry Forsythe and Paul Gentilozzi taking over and re-branding as the Champ Car World Series. Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing were gone. Team Green was leaving for the Indy Racing League with Michael Andretti becoming a co-owner and Rahal Letterman Racing was leaving as well. Adrián Fernández announced his team's withdrawal and move to the IRL a month prior to the Champ Car opener from Long Beach. 

All Champ Car had were Newman-Haas Racing and Forsythe Racing as powerhouses. RuSPORT's two cars brought the 2004 grid up to 18 full-time cars. 

Allmendinger was one of five rookies in the 2004 season opener at Long Beach. One rookie spent the previous year in Formula One (Justin Wilson), one ran two CART races the year before and raced in World Series by Nissan two years prior (Roberto González), one was 17 years old and moving straight from ninth in Barber Dodge Pro (Nelson Philippe) and the other made two CART starts and a Barber Dodge Pro Series start the year before (Alex Sperafico). 

The 14-race calendar visited four countries. Three countries hosted multiple races. There were only two oval races, and the final two races were outside the United States.

Push-to-pass was introduced for the first time, as were multiple tire compounds during a race, and teams started the 2004 season with a mandatory number of green flag pit stops, which was dropped after two rounds.

Though there was only one engine manufacturer, there were two chassis providers on the grid, Lola and Reynard.

How does IndyCar look now?

I think it has been pretty well covered. 

Over two-dozen full-time entries. 

One chassis manufacturer. Two engine manufacturers. 

Seventeen-race calendar in two countries with only one race outside the United States. 

Compared to Champ Car, more ovals.

Compared to the IRL, fewer ovals. 

Newman-Haas, Forsythe, Kalkhoven and Gentilozzi are gone. 

Push-to-pass is the norm, and there are now hybrid systems that essentially act as another form of push-to-pass. Multiple tire compounds are the norm, and they have even been used at ovals. Mandatory total of green flag pit stops has never really come back. 

The big difference is IndyCar is not seeing teams join the series to fill the grid. Teams are joining because they see some value. The series is not desperate for cars. The series is full to the point that it is limit grid size at all races, especially now with the introduction of the charter system. 

What did Allmendinger do in-between?

For a team that was new to Champ Car with a rookie driver, 2004 was a rather promising first year for Allmendinger and RuSPORT. The first two races were not great, but he was fifth in his third start at Milwaukee. He finished in the top six in three of the next four races, including a third at Vancouver, his first career podium finish. 

He ended the season with five finishes in the top six in the final six races, including another podium finish in the finale in Mexico City. This stretch included a Montreal race where he led ten laps after starting second. He went on to finish fifth in that race. He started no worse than seventh in the final seven races. 

There was not much of a sophomore slump in 2005. It was a slow start with finishes of eighth and tenth to open the season, but he was second at Milwaukee, fifth at Portland and second at Cleveland. After a bad race in Toronto, Allmendinger picked up his first career pole position in Edmonton. 

In the inaugural Edmonton race, Allemendinger found himself in control approaching the final laps of the race, and his RuSPORT teammate Justin Wilson was in second. Under caution with nine laps remaining, Wilson spun behind Allmendinger running under caution speed. Allmendinger restarted with Sébastien Bourdais behind him and two laps after the restart, Allmendinger slapped the barrier exiting a corner while leading. It ended his race eight laps short of victory.

Allmendinger got back on the podium two races later in Denver. He closed the season with a pair of runner-up finishes and it lifted him to fifth in the championship, one spot better than his rookie season. 

Expectations were high in his third year, but Allmendinger was caught in an opening lap accident in the Long Beach season opener. He bounced back with a third two races later in Monterrey and then he was fourth at Milwaukee. Through four races, he was up to fifth in the championship.

However, five days after the Milwaukee round, Allmendinger was released from RuSPORT in favor of Cristiano da Matta in Russo's hopes of being a greater threat to defeating Bourdais and Newman-Haas Racing. Unexpectedly out of a ride, Allmendinger caught a break when Forsythe Racing decided to replace Mario Domínguez with Allmendinger only four days ahead of the Portland round.

Allmendinger responded with a second-place qualifying run in Portland. He then took the lead at the start and never looked back, leading 100 of 105 laps on his way to his first career victory. This began a three-race tear that would see Allmendinger win three consecutive races. After Portland, he won from pole position in Cleveland. He led 38 laps and won from second at Toronto. This run lifted him to second in the championship, 23 points behind Bourdais. 

Bourdais responded over the next two races but Allmendinger won at Denver while Bourdais tangled with Paul Tracy on the final lap. The gap was 32 points with four races remaining, unfavorable for Allmendinger, but not insurmountable. 

The championship hopes nosedived in Montreal. Allmendinger led the first 13 laps from pole position, but a broken driveshaft ended his race on lap 14. Bourdais went on to win the race. Allmendinger struck back with a victory at Road America and the gap was 58 points with two races remaining. Unfortunately, the hopes vanished in Surfers Paradise after an accident on lap 19. Bourdais clinched the title with a race to spare.

During Allmendinger's run in 2006, he was also linked to a move to NASCAR through his Red Bull sponsorship. He made his debut in Truck Series at Loudon in September, a week prior to his Road America victory, and he ran at Talladega the week after that. Four days after his accident in Surfers Paradise, Allmendinger was announced as a member of Team Red Bull's inaugural driver line-up for the 2007 NASCAR Cup Series season. Allmendinger did not return to Forsythe for the 2006 season finale in Mexico City, but he still finished third in the championship. 

NASCAR was tough sledding for Allmendinger, and he failed to qualify for his two attempted Cup races late in the 2006 season. He did not qualify for 19 races in 2007 and the first three races of 2007. He was sidelined for the next five races and veteran Mike Skinner took over to get the car some owner's points. Allmendinger returned and started the next 21 races, but he was removed for the final seven races with Skinner and Scott Speed splitting the Red Bull entry.

Allmendinger closed out the season with a race at Michael Waltrip Racing and five races with Gillett Evernham Motorsports. He remained with the GEM organization as it merged with the Petty Enterprises organization ahead of the 2009 season. Allmendinger was third in the rain-shortened Daytona 500, and he qualified for all 36 races, ending up 26th in the championship.

He would spend the next two seasons at RPM, rising to 19th and 15th in the championship. This led to an opportunity at Team Penske after Kurt Busch was released from the organization. Allmendinger had some tough races, but he was second at Martinsville and won his first career pole positional Kansas. Results started to improved and he finished ninth at Sonoma and Kentucky in consecutive weekends.

However, after the Kentucky race, Allmendinger was suspended from NASCAR due to a failed drug test after Allmendinger had taken Adderall. Allmendinger was released from Team Penske on August 1, 2012 and he was reinstated by NASCAR on September 18. He was able to run four races later that season for Phoenix Racing. 

Despite the failed drug test, Allmendinger remained in the good graces of Team Penske. He was offered an IndyCar test in the winter of 2013. His speed led to a two-race run between Barber Motorsports Park and the Indianapolis 500. Allmendinger qualified tenth in his first open-wheel race in nearly five-and-a-half years and Long Beach was quickly added to his schedule. He finished 19th at Barber and he was 23rd after a mechanical issue in Long Beach.

At Indianapolis, Allmendinger was competitive immediately. He qualified fifth, the best Team Penske starter. He spent much of the first half of the race running in the top ten and he took the lead on lap 98. However, after leading 14 laps, Allmendinger was forced to make a pit stop as his seatbelt was coming loose. Despite the untimely pit stop, Allmendinger was able to rally to finish seventh, the second-best rookie behind race runner-up Carlos Muñoz. 

Allmendinger had the Belle Isle doubleheader and the Fontana finale added to his schedule. Sadly, he was taken out in the first corner on the opening lap of both Belle Isle races. He qualified second at Fontana, but he had an accident on lap 189.

While competing in IndyCar in 2013, Allmendinger remained active in NASCAR. He started 18 Cup races between Phoenix Racing and JTG Daugherty Racing. He won both his starts in NASCAR's second division for Team Penske, his first victories in NASCAR competition. This run of form led to a full-time ride with JTG Daugherty Racing in 2014. 

Allmendinger has remained in NASCAR ever since. His first career Cup victory came at Watkins Glen in 2014. He has since added two more Cup victories to his career, including the first Cup race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in 2021. He has won 18 races in NASCAR's second division, and he has been a regular championship contender, as he has spent three of the last four seasons full-time at that level. 

In 2025, Allmendinger will return to full-time Cup Series competition with Kaulig Racing.

What impression did Allmendinger leave on IndyCar?

When thinking about A.J. Allmendinger and IndyCar, the first thought is always, "What could have been?"

Allmendinger leaves in 2006. By 2008, Champ Car and the IRL merge. If he remained with Forsythe for the 2007 season, Allmendinger was bound to contend for the championship again. I don’t know if he beats Bourdais and Newman-Haas, but he would have won races, and maybe it is enough to win the title. If Allmendinger had won the title or at least been competitive in 2007, where does he go in 2008? Is Allmendinger enough to convince Forsythe to remain on the grid in a reunified IndyCar Series? Is he a prize free agent and get hired early by Team Penske or Newman-Haas or another organization? 

No matter what, IndyCar would have looked different. 

Allmendinger might not have been the ball of energy he is today, but he was far more of a personality than anyone in either series at that time other than possibly Hélio Castroneves. A successful American, who was not afraid of speaking and engaging with the media and fans was something IndyCar needed around 2008, and it just missed it.  

We have no clue how things would have played out, but there is a chance Allmendinger could have been the face of IndyCar for the last 15 years. He was comfortable on ovals as we saw in the handful of ovals races he did in Champ Car. All the road and street courses suited him. If it wasn’t Will Power filling in for Castroneves when the Brazilian was in court for tax evasion, it could have been Allmendinger, but Allmendinger could have gotten more all along. He could have been the one to replace Sam Hornish, Jr. heading into 2008. We will never know but that wouldn’t have surprised us. 

Allmendinger would have helped IndyCar during that period. I don’t know if it would have flipped anything, but it would have been a driver willing to be the face of the series at a time where no one stood out and was also succeeding. 

When considering the struggles Allmendinger went through in his first two years in NASCAR, the fact he is still competing there on a full-time basis and is a regular threat for victories, it is quite remarkable. He joined at a time when open-wheel talent was being offered opportunities left and right. Most of these drivers were mocked when they didn’t succeed, Allmendinger included. Some had short runs in NASCAR. Allmendinger has stuck it out, and now he can win anywhere. 

It will be 12 years since Allmendinger made that brief return to IndyCar. At the end of 2013, I probably would have bet Allmendinger would be back again. About to turn 43 years old next month, I don’t think we will see him return to IndyCar or Indianapolis for another run. Coincidentally, Juan Pablo Montoya returned to IndyCar in 2014 with Team Penske, a year after Allmendinger’s cameo comeback. Montoya returned and was a championship contender after over a decade away. If the offers had not been there for a return to NASCAR, Allmendinger could have a fruitful second act in a unified series. The ability was there. 

Sadly, like nearly everything in Allmendinger’s IndyCar career, it is a case of wondering what might have been. 

 

2024 NASCAR Predictions: Revisited

NASCAR season is finally over, and I think most are relieved the season is over. There is a sense a good number of people wanted a break, and there is another identity crisis emerging after the outcome of this season. After starting in February, a break in November is much needed. There is not even three months until the teams return to competition. 

Before we get back to racing, we should look back on what has just happened. Three national touring series have wrapped up their seasons and there were plenty of memorable races and moments. A dozen predictions were made ahead the action, and it is time to see if the thoughts of last winter were true.

1. The Cup Series champion will have at least five top five finishes between the months of June, July, August and September

Wrong!

It is hard to believe this one was wrong, but for the second consecutive season, the NASCAR Cup Series champion had fewer than five top five finishes over the four months that make up summer. Last year, Ryan Blaney failed to have any top five finishes over that four-month stretch. Joey Logano did better than that, but he fell short of the prerequisite for this prediction. 

Logano had four top five finishes over these four months. 

Fifth at Gateway

First at Nashville

Fifth at Pocono

First at Atlanta

Logano had seven top five finishes all season, the fewest for a NASCAR Cup Series champion since Bill Rexford in 1950.

2. Every Cup playoff driver finishes the season with at least four top five finishes

Wrong!

This prediction was dead the moment Harrison Burton won the August race at Daytona. It was Burton's first top five finish of the season, and let's face, Burton wasn't going to get three top five finishes in the final 11 races of the season.

Either way, Burton wasn't the only playoff driver to fail to reach four top five finishes this season. The winner of the next race at Southern 500, Chase Briscoe, only had three top five finishes. The difference is Briscoe's Darlington victory was his third top five finish of the season. All he needed was one in the final ten races. Briscoe was sixth at Watkins Glen.

For a season that had a bunch of unexpected winners, some reached four top five finishes. Austin Cindric reached four top five finishes. Daniel Suárez reached four top five finishes. Without those victories, they likely don't make the playoffs. Without their victories at Daytona and Darlington, Burton and Briscoe likely don't make the playoffs either. Who ended up on the outside?

Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain, who all ended the season with six top five finishes, and Kyle Busch, who had five top five finishes this season. Great.

3. William Byron will have fewer victories where he lead 20 laps or fewer

Correct!

Byron only won three races this season, so as long he led at least 21 laps in one of those victories we were good. 

However, he started the season winning the Daytona 500 with four laps led. He was one-third of the way to matching his 2023 performance through one race of the season. However, he led 42 laps and won at Austin and then he led 88 laps and won at Martinsville. Three victories through the first eight races. 

How did the final 28 races go? No victories for Byron. There you go. Prediction correct. 

4. 23XI Racing will win more Cup races but have fewer drivers in the final top ten championship standings

Correct!

Last season, 23XI Racing won twice and it had two drivers in the top ten of the final championship standings. 

This season 23XI Racing won three races and had one driver in the top ten of the final championship standings. 

Tyler Reddick was responsible all three of 23XI's victories this season. Reddick was fourth in the championship and Bubba Wallace was 18th after he did not qualify for the playoffs.

5. Shane van Gisbergen's average finish across the three national NASCAR series will be greater than 15.5

Correct!

Year one of the full Shane van Gisbergen experiment in NASCAR went pretty well. It wasn't perfect, but for a driver who spent over 15 years competing in Supercars, this would be a transition as he moved to a primarily oval-based series after years of exclusive competing on street courses and road courses. 

After winning on his Cup debut last year at Chicago, everyone expected he would win again in NASCAR on a road course. That happened. He won three times. Portland, Sonoma and Chicago. It was three victories in five races. Pretty damn good. 

While he did have top five finishes in five of six road/street course races, and he lost second for a controversial track limits penalty at Austin, he did finish 12th in his first race at Daytona and he was third at Atlanta. He was sixth in his first Phoenix start and he finished 11th on his first trip to Martinsville. He was also fourth at Indianapolis, seventh in the summer Darlington race and he finished eighth in the playoffs at Kansas. 

While he had ten top ten results, there were growing pains. He had eight finishes outside the top 35. 

Van Gisbergen did well in his 12 Cup starts. He was second at Watkins Glen and seventh at the Charlotte roval, but he did throw away a promising run at Chicago. He did complete every lap in both Talladega races, and he finished 12th in his first Cup race at Martinsville. In addition to Chicago, he had six more finishes outside the top 25 in Cup.

Nobody should be expected van Gisbergen to be blowing the doors off the competition, but with his road course skills, it was inevitable he would lock up a playoff spot with a victory and then have some good days here and there. There will still be tough days. 

With that said, over 45 starts in NASCAR's top two divisions, van Gisbergen's average finish was 18th, which was expected by this prediction, but was also pretty impressive for him. That is kind of where his natural talent should put him. The more time he spends in NASCAR, the better he will develop. I don't know if he will every be averaging a top ten finish over an entire Cup season, but van Gisbergen can certainly hold his own to the average competitor in the Cup Series.

6. Ty Gibbs will get his first career Cup victory before the All-Star Race

Wrong!

This was a prediction limited to the first 13 races, and it looked promising to start the season. Gibbs had three top ten finishes in the first four races. Two of those were top five results. He led 137 laps at Bristol before finishing ninth after everyone struggled on tires. He was third at Austin and ranked second in points. At that point, it felt inevitable Gibbs would win and it would be soon.

However, he finished outside the top ten in the next four races and in five of the next six. In the final chance for this prediction to be correct, Gibbs was second at Darlington. Brutal. 

How did the rest of the season go for Gibbs?

After four top five results in the first 13 races, he had four top five finishes in the final 23 races. He ended the season with five consecutive finishes of 30th or worse. 

7. Both Legacy Motor Club entries finish in the top 25 of the owners' championship

Wrong!

This one was wildly wrong, and the switch to Toyota did not help Legacy Motor Club. 

The #43 Toyota was 29th in owner's points and the #42 Toyota was ranked 35th!

Woof! It was worse than last year! The #43 entry was 27th last year and the #42 entry was 32nd. The team went in the wrong direction!

Erik Jones ended up 28th in points and missed two races. John Hunter Nemechek was 34th. 

As a collective, the Legacy Motor Club results weren't much worse than last year. The team had one top five finishes and six top ten finishes combined. Last year, the team had one top five finish and seven combined top ten finishes. The difference is last year Jones was responsible for all of that and Ty Dillon contributed nothing. This year Jones had one top five and two top ten finishes while Nemechek had four top ten finishes. 

That is some progress, but Jones' averrable finish dropped from 20.4 to 22.9. Nemcheck did have an average finish of 25.4 compared to Dillon's 27.5. It wasn't entirely a down year, but this was not a year of upward mobility either. 

It can only go up from here in 2025, right?

8. The Iowa Cup winner will have won there previously in one of NASCAR's other national series

Correct!

Ryan Blaney won the inaugural Cup race held at Iowa Speedway, leading 201 of 350 laps from second on the grid.

Blaney's first career Truck Series victory came at Iowa in September 2012. It was his third career start. He also led 252 of 260 laps on his way to victory at Iowa in August 2015 in NASCAR's second division.

9. The driver that wins the most races in NASCAR's second division wins the championship

Wrong!

Austin Hill won four races, but Hill ended up fourth in the championship. Justin Allgaier won two races and took the title. The streak extends to 15 consecutive seasons without the driver with the most victories winning the championship at NASCAR's second level.

This season was rather competitive, and that was expected. Only four drivers won at least three races this season, but eventually the number's game will turn and the driver that dominates this series will win the title.

10. This will be the season with the most race winners qualifying for the playoff in NASCAR's second division

Wrong!

This one fell short by one. We needed nine drivers to clinch a playoff spot with a race victory in the regular season. We had eight! Even worse, there were 18 race winners this season. Sixteen of those drivers won in the regular season.

If you had told me, there would be 16 winners in the first 26 races, I would have said it is a lock there would be nine winners making the playoffs. I might have even said it would have to be ten drivers. It was eight. 

The stunning thing was A.J. Allmendinger didn't win a regular season race, and he didn't win until Las Vegas with four races remaining. Jesse Love won a race, Ryan Truex won twice thought not as a full-time driver, Shane van Gisbergen won three times, Connor Zilisch won on debut. All of that occurred in the regular season, and Allmendinger could not win once. 

Sheldon Creed had six runner-up finishes in the regular season but no victories! That ninth different winner could have happened. It just kept falling short.

11. Drivers with a first name beginning with the letter "C" will combine to win fewer than ten Truck races

Wrong!

This one stings because drivers with a first name starting with the letter "C" needed to win fewer than ten races. Not ten or fewer, but fewer than ten. No more than nine, two fewer than their combined victory total in 2023. 

How did it work out this year? They combined for ten victories. 

Christian Eckes won six times and Corey Heim won four times. Entering the penultimate race, they were on nine victories. Eckes dominated that race but Taylor Gray took the lead late only for Eckes to knock him out of the way. There went the prediction as well. 

As you can see, it was just one of those years of constantly end up falling one short.

12. Each Chicago race will complete at least 95% of the scheduled distances but neither will exceed 110% of the scheduled distances.

Wrong!

I don't know what NASCAR has to do to get a clean weekend in Chicago, but it felt like this year was set to be better, and it was, but for the second consecutive year it was not smooth sailing. 

The Grand National Series race on Saturday went the scheduled distance, 50 laps, 107 miles.

Sunday is where it went sideways. 

All week, the forecast was clear for both days. Come Sunday, there was a storm a coming. Another rain storm red flagged the race and the delay pushed it up against sunset. NASCAR made the call that the race would end once two laps were completed after 8:20 p.m. local time. When Alex Bowman took the checkered flag, only 58 of the scheduled 75 laps were completed, 77.333% of the scheduled distance. 

Let's remember that in two years of the Chicago street race, NASCAR has completed 78% of the scheduled distance, shortened the scheduled distance by 25% for year two, only for it again to only complete essentially 78% of the scheduled distance. 

At this rate, we are looking at a scheduled distance of 56 laps in 2025 with only about 43 laps being completed. Oh my goodness! It doesn't get much worse than that. 

Except it does, because my predictions went four for 12 this year. Lousy. Plain lousy is what that is. Some were harsh, but it is lousy nonetheless. I mean, batting .333 would have made you the best hitter in Major League Baseball this season, but I am not looking to top Bobby Witt, Jr. 

On to better things in 2025.