It isn't the longest season, but Formula One takes us the deepest in the year of the maor championships in the world. It still does not feel all that long ago the season was over in October and the holidays were months away. Now, the final checkered flag waves weeks away from the Christmas and the end of the year. All that is left to do is recap the season and put to bed the predictions made nearly a year ago.
1. The second Red Bull entry leads at least 200 laps
Wrong!
The thought was Red Bull would be good and its second entry would do better than it did in 2023. Instead, Sergio Pérez had a disaster of a season that may end his Formula One career. After leading 146 laps last year and leading 148 laps the year before that, Pérez led a grand total of... one lap over the entire 2024 season.
If there is not a better encapsulation of this nosedive it is Pérez going from a regular podium finisher and someone who could pull off a few victories, to someone who wasn't even close and it felt like a fluke he even led a lap.
The one lap Pérez led this season was lap 22 in the Italian Grand Prix. It was a race he finished eighth. Pérez's season with opened the sixth consecutive top five finishes. He did not finish in the top five in the final 18 races of the season.
2. There will be midseason driver changes at multiple teams
Correct!
After no driver changes from the final race of 2023 to the first race of 2024, it was almost a guarantee we would see somebody lose a seat midseason.
Technically, the first driver change was at Ferrari. Carlos Sainz, Jr. had appendicitis at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and that forced him out of the car for the second race of the season. Oliver Bearman stepped in, but this prediction wasn't about a quick substitution for an injury or illness. This was about a permanent break from a driver.
That still happened at multiple teams.
The first was Williams letting Logan Sargeant go after the Dutch Grand Prix. Franco Colapinto entered and ran the remainder of the season, scoring five points after Sargeant scored none, though Colapinto had his fair share of crash damage.
The second was at the team formerly known as Toro Rosso, where Daniel Ricciardo was released after the Singapore grand Prix with 12 points to his name. Liam Lawson returned to the grid and he scored four points over the final six races.
Bearman did return to replace Kevin Magnussen at Haas after Magnussen was suspended for penalty point accumulation, forcing the Dane out of the Azerbaijan race. Bearman also ran in place of Magnussen at Brazil when Magnussen was ill.
The final change this season was at the final race. Jack Doohan drove at Alpine in place for Esteban Ocon.
3. On at least one occasions will there be three consecutive different winners
Correct!
This was a good year for winners. It started with Max Verstappen winning five of the first seven races and seven of the first ten races. It felt like we were on for another dominant season, but the result swung in the second half of the season.
While Verstappen was winning all those races, he never won three consecutively. After Verstappen won in Spain, the Mercedes-AMG drivers of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton won the next to races in Austria and Great Britain. Then Oscar Piastri followed it up with his first career grand prix victory in Hungary. Four consecutive winners, but wait, there is more.
From Piastri's victory spawned another stretch of four consecutive winners. Hamilton, Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc won the three races after Hungary.
But wait, there is more.
Piastri's second career victory was in Azerbaijan. That led a run of six consecutive race winners. Norris won in Singapore, Leclerc won in the United States, Sainz, Jr. won in Mexico, Verstappen won in Brazil, and Russell won in Las Vegas.
This one was covered on multiple levels, and it is a good thing it was.
4. Each Williams car will score at least four points
Correct!
Alexander Albon had scored four points at the end of the British Grand Prix. He had a pair of ninths with he other coming in Monaco. Albon scored another ninth-place finish in Monza and he was seventh in Azerbaijan. That left the Thai driver with 12 points.
As mentioned above, Colapinto joined the team at Monza. He scored four points with his eighth-place finish in Azerbaijan, and then he added another point for insurance with tenth in Austin.
5. Fernando Alonso finishes at least five positions better than Lance Stroll in fewer than nine grand prix
Wrong!
This prediction was taking into account that Aston Martin would not be as good as last year, but Alonso would come down closer to Stroll's level and there would be better balance between the two drivers.
Alonso came down, but Stroll kept falling back as well.
Alonso was at least five position better than Stroll in nine grand prix!
Saudi Arabia: Alonso fifth, Stroll retired (19th).
Japan: Alonso sixth, Stroll 12th.
China: Alonso seventh, Stroll 15th.
Miami: Alonso ninth, Stroll 17th.
Italy: Alonso 11th, Stroll 19th.
Azerbaijan: Alonso sixth, Stroll 19th.
Singapore: Alonso eighth, Stroll 14th.
Qatar: Alonso seventh, Stroll retired (18th)
Abu Dhabi: Alonso ninth, Stroll 14th.
This isn't even counting Brazil, where Stroll beached the car after sliding off course on the formation lap.
But this one was correct on the road for about five seconds because Stroll was 12th in Abu Dhabi, however, he had a five-second penalty for exceeding track limits drop him to 14th, exactly five spots behind Alonso. If only Stroll could have kept it on the track, I would have had this one. That and if Oscar Piastri had not been spun and then hit Colapinto and all Piastri could do was finish tenth, one spot behind Alonso, kept this from being correct.
6. McLaren will score more than 29 points in at least six grand prix
Correct!
This season was far greater than even our greatest expectations for McLaren. Did anyone truly believe McLaren would win the World Constructors' Championship? Honestly? We expected a good year, a more competitive year, but did we expect the unfortunate 666 points and 14 more than Ferrari!? While Red Bull ended up 77 points behind in third? I don't think anyone can honestly say they had that.
I can honestly say that I had McLaren scoring 29 points or more in at least six grand prix, but not including sprint race points. This is just taking into consideration grand prix results. When a team wins six races, it is easy to exceed 29 points.
Imola - 30 points (second and fourth)
Monaco - 30 points (second and fourth)
Hungary - 43 points (first and second)
Netherlands - 38 points (first and fourth with fastest lap)
Italy - 34 points (second and third with fastest lap)
Azerbaijan - 38 points (first and fourth with fastest lap)
Singapore - 40 points (first and third)
That is seven races with at least 29 points. It is kind of surprising that in two of its victories that did not see 29 points scored. In Miami, Norris won but Piastri was 13th and outside the points. In the Abu Dhabi finale, Norris won but Piastri was tenth and the total was only 26 points. There were at least two other better days to make up for those.
You would have thought the constructors' champions would have scored 29 points or more in half the races, but this was closer to be wrong than when I starting going over the numbers.
7. The gap between sixth and seventh in the constructors' championship will be less than 40 points
Correct!
Alpine took the surprise sixth spot in the constructors' championship on 65 points. Thirty-three of those points came in the Brazilian Grand Prix when the changing conditions and timely red flag allowed Esteban Ocon to finish second and Pierre Gasly to finish third. That was the difference between sixth and eighth in the constructors' championship.
In seventh was Haas with 46 points. Haas scored points in 13 races with three double points days, and the team's best finish was sixth on two occasions.
That gap between Alpine and Haas was seven points. Even if Alpine did not score 33 points in Brazil, we would have been looking at a 12-point margin between Haas in sixth and the team formerly known as Toro Rosso in seventh. We had this covered.
8. Charles Leclerc will finish eighth in at least two races
Wrong!
This was very specific, but it didn't happen because Leclerc was damn fine this season. Leclerc had a points-paying finish in 21 of 24 races. He scored points in 22 of 24 rounds (sprint points in Austria). Every points finish for Leclerc was a top five finish. Twenty-one top five finishes was the most in the 2024 season!
Verstappen had 19 top five finishes and Norris had 18. Credit to Leclerc, which I don't think he was properly getting until late in the season. He didn't finish eighth because he was constantly running better than eighth. Through now 147 career starts, Leclerc remains on four eighth-place finishes in his career.
9. Max Verstappen will be in sole possession of fourth all-time in podium finishes by the conclusion of the British Grand Prix
Correct!
For this one to be correct, Verstappen needed at least nine podium finishes in the first 12 races with Fernando Alonso scoring zero podium finishes. If Alonso got one, Verstappen needed ten in the first 12 races.
Alonso held his end of the bargain and he had no podium finishes in the first 12 races. Alonso had no podium finishes over the entire season.
Verstappen scored his ninth podium finish in the British Grand Prix, moving him to fourth all-time on 107 podium finishes, putting him ahead of Alain Prost and Alonso. Verstappen ended 2024 on 112 points finishes, ten behind equaling Sebastian Vettel for third.
10. Somebody knocks Alain Prost out of the top ten for oldest pole-sitter in Formula One history
Wrong!
This came down to either Alonso or Lewis Hamilton winning a pole position in 2024. That didn't happen. Alonso's best starting position was third in China. His only other top five start was fourth in Saudi Arabia. Hamilton started second at Silverstone, 0.171 seconds off his teammate George Russell's pole-winning time.
We were less than two-tenths of a second from getting this one correct. Oof.
11. Yuki Tsunoda will have fewer 11th-place finishes than in 2023
Correct!
In 2023, Tsunoda had three 11th-place classifications in the first five races (and four in six races dating to the 2022 season finale) and it became a running joke that Tsunoda always finishes 11th... even though he didn't finish 11th again over the final 17 races of 2023.
How many 11th-place finishes did Tsunoda have in 2024?
Zero!
So the man who always finishes 11th has not finished 11th in 41 consecutive races. In 87 career starts, Tsunoda has four 11th place finishes. Tsunoda has finished tenth in ten races in his career. He has more seventh place finishes and ninth place finishes (five each) than 11th place finishes.
Just keep that in mind.
12. Haas will exceed 12 points before Formula One's second visit to the United States
Correct!
This was a good year for Haas. It was regularly in the points and the cars had better qualifying pace. It was a slower start though. Haas had five points in the first ten races. In Austria, Haas scored 12 points in that race alone. A sixth at Silverstone the following week added another eight points to the total.
Halfway through the season, Haas was up to 25 points, and there were six races until the second visit to the United States in Austin. By the time Haas rolled into Texas, it had 29 points, just over double the prediction.
Eight out of 12! That is what you hope for. That is two-thirds correct. Pretty good. Not great but far from bad. You are bound to get a few wrong. I would argue you got to get a few wrong. It at least shows you are taking risks in your predictions.
Speaking of predictions, stay tuned! More are just around the corner as we inch closer to 2025.
