Twenty-three days are all that remains until IndyCar begins its 2025 season in St. Petersburg, and one team that has a good track record at St. Petersburg is the Andretti Global organization. Ranking second all-time in St. Petersburg victories, a great start in Florida could put the three-car operation in a stellar spot as it looks to get back on top of the series as a whole.
The driver lineup has been retained from 2024, a year where Andretti improved from the previous few seasons. With multiple victories and a driver that finished second in the championship, the promised land appears to be close. There are a few areas where the team can still improve, and if it does, a championship is reasonable, but that last bit is the toughest to get.
At First Glance... Andretti always feels like it is about to make that next step but falls short
Thirteen years flew by. That is how long it has been since the Andretti organization has won a championship. During that interim, the team has swung through the highs and the lows. It was lost in the early days of the manufacturer-specific aero kits but rallied in the early days of the universal aero kit.
Things started well when the aeroscreen was introduced, but then the team took a two-year dive. In 2024, Andretti climbed up the order, and the introduction of the hybrid did not shock the system. Andretti ended last year on a high note and was respectable across the board.
Last year wasn't a case where Andretti was only good on street courses but lost on ovals. It won on both. It had a podium finish at Laguna Seca and top five finishes at Mid-Ohio and Portland. Andretti was competitive across the board. There is room to improve, but the team is starting 2025 in a good spot.
However, good spots have been wasted before.
The title should have gone to the team in 2018 with Alexander Rossi. One caution in Portland swung everything out of Rossi and Andretti's control and into Scott Dixon's. It was a close call and hopes were high. However, Rossi and Andretti could not re-create that championship push.
Colton Herta has been the future of IndyCar since 2019. That was only accelerated when he won in his third career start weeks prior to his 19th birthday. Herta went through the rookie hardships, but he worked through those growing pains and ended up third in the championship in his sophomore year. The 2021 season saw a few more growing pains, but he ended that year with two consecutive victories, and it felt like 2022 was due to be Herta and Andretti's year.
Instead, Herta only won once in the next 45 races, and he could not finish better than tenth in the championship.
We have been here before. Andretti has made a step, a notable one, it is on the door step, but recent history suggests we are about to enter the stage where Andretti trips. There are no signs it is about to go wrong, but that was the case entering 2015, 2019 and 2022 as well. For years we have been expecting Andretti to return to its former glory and fulfill the "Big Three" narrative in an IndyCar championship that pits it against Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing for 17 races. That hasn't come close to being consistent for most of the last decade.
It is understandable to think this time will be different. Andretti Global has done all the right things. It is entering 2025 with a proven lineup, and there are not question marks. These are three capable drivers, all past winners who could likely do it again, and we saw these three combine to turn Andretti around in 2024. Now, these three must take the team that next step forward, a tricky task to complete.
2024 Andretti Global Review
Wins: 2 (Toronto, Nashville)
Poles: 4 (Detroit, Iowa, Toronto, Nashville)
Championship Finishes: 2nd (Colton Herta), 7th (Kyle Kirkwood), 15th (Marcus Ericsson), 43rd (Marco Andretti)
Colton Herta - #26 Gainbridge Honda
Numbers to Remember:
305 - Laps led last season, the third-most in IndyCar
11 - Races led last season, the most in IndyCar
10 - Top five finishes last season, Herta's most in a season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Everything that went right in 2024 to go right again in 2025, and those few things that went wrong to be turned around. That goes for the driver and the team.
Herta was 32 points off a championship in 2024. Those 32 points can be found in not spinning out of the Indianapolis 500 while running second. Instead of finishing 23rd, Indianapolis could have been a second-place finish or a sixth-place finish. That is a 21-33 point swing right there.
Instead of finishing 19th at Detroit after being shuffled back in a pit cycle due to a caution and running into the barrier, Herta could be on the right side of that caution or at least be more patient and work his way to seventh or eighth, not as great as it could have been, but not terrible either, and netting him at least 15 more points.
Instead of finishing 22nd at Milwaukee because the left front tire was not secured on a pit stop, Herta's team could make sure the tire is on and he could finish fifth and pick up 22 more points.
In three races, Herta left about 58-70 points on the table, more than enough to swing a championship. Minimizing these days where a dozen points or more slip through his fingers can be the deciding factor.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is realistic. Herta ended up second in the championship last year in a season where I think most would have considered him the fifth-best driver, but his results were unappreciated.
Herta won twice, both in convincing fashion. He dominated Toronto and his Nashville victory after driving down Patricio O'Ward was stuff of legend. Herta stood on the podium after three of the four street races, and he probably should have won the fourth if it wasn't for the disjoined nature of the Detroit race. His oval form made a big leap and two of his three non-top ten finishes on ovals come down to things out of his control as a driver. Other than maybe finding a little more speed on the natural-terrain road courses, Herta does not need to do much more.
It is highly realistic Herta can win four races, pick up nine podium finishes and have 12 top five finishes with only two results outside the top ten and both those still be top fifteen results. That is more than enough to win a championship in 2025.
But as we have seen with Herta and the Andretti organization, as plausible it is for him to come out on top, we must remember there is a season where he only finishes on the podium twice, gets six or seven top five finishes, but has four results of 20th or worse, and that drops him down to ninth.
Kyle Kirkwood - #27 Chili's Honda
Numbers to Remember:
8.7059: Average finish last season, the fourth-best in IndyCar
13: Top ten finishes last season, tied for the most with Álex Palou
8: Top ten finishes in Kirkwood's career entering the 2024 season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Being a little bit better than how Kirkwood was in 2024, which was pretty good. Through the first ten races, his worse finish was 11th. He had three top five finishes, but he had no podium results. That is good, but nobody would consider that great.
It starts with turning some of those fourth and fifth-place finishes into podium results, and likely a victory or two. it is turning those finishes of seventh and tenth into finishes of fourth and sixth.
To start the season, instead of having three consecutive top ten finishes, he has three consecutive top five finishes with one of those being a victory. Another start of nine top ten finishes in the first ten races sees at least two of those results be victories and half of those results be podium finishes.
Kirkwood's oval form also takes a leap forward. He has the speed to run in the top five and he pulls out at least a victory or two on that disciple as well. Four victories across the spectrum of track disciplines and eight podium results with a dozen top five finishes puts Kirkwood in championship territory.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is not an absurd notion for Kirkwood, but it requires a little more convincing than Herta’s case. In 2023, we saw what he can do when the speed is there and he is at the front. He can win races, but on off days, he struggled to breakthrough. In 2024, we saw Kirkwood find better consistency and remain in the top third of the field more, though we did not see him breakthrough for another victory.
If he can combine 2023 and 2024 in 2025, he has an outside shot at the championship.
He has already won twice in a single season. Getting another victory would not be a surprise at this point, and it would likely come on a street course, though there are a few road courses that suit him well. His oval form got better last year, and it could take a step this year. It will be the toughest place for him to defeat the competition, but it is an area where he could get more top five results.
As excited as we should be that Andretti Global could have two drivers finish in the top five in the championship, that is something this team has done once since reunification. It is realistic to think Herta and Kirkwood can both pick up at least one victory, both could be on the podium five times and have at least eight top five finishes. It is difficult to believe that is how it will really play out.
Marcus Ericsson - #28 Bryant Honda
Numbers to Remember:
20.857: Average finish on ovals last season and this is with two top ten finishes on ovals
15.176: Average finish over the entire 2024 season, Ericsson's worst average finish in an IndyCar season
13.294: Average starting position last season, his worst since his rookie season in 2019
What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with six glorious oval races. Six races where Ericsson is not scoring single-digit point totals and that is the spine of his season. He is in the top ten of all of those races, in the top five in at least two or three and he wins one. The mechanical issues do not bite him either, especially when he is on a top ten run.
In his first six seasons in IndyCar, we know Ericsson's best is when he is consistent and pick up points when others are throwing them away. He is not the type of driver that is going to win five to six races in a season and go on a tear. It is a methodical accumulation of points, constantly finishing fifth or sixth with those few races where he jumps up the order and steals a handful more.
To be champion though, those great days must be more than once or twice.
For Ericsson to be champion, he must find a way to win at least three races. He must be on the podium at least six or seven times. He can still finish fifth or sixth in six or seven races, but however many races he finishes in the middle of the top ten, he must at least match in podium results.
Any Marcus Ericsson championship season ends with us in awe of his consistency that doesn't look stunning but is rather calculated and it is difficult to beat.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Better than last year that is for sure.
Some drivers get these snakebitten seasons where a half-dozen races go against them in the same way and it only happens to one driver. Ericsson is not going to have five oval races where he finishes 23rd or worse happen again. He is not going to have a handful of races where he is in an incident early. If you make those five races finishes of 13th, Ericsson scores about 45 more points and he is 11th in the championship. That is just by being squarely in the middle of the field on ovals. Ericsson will be better than that.
Year two with the Andretti organization will see Ericsson find his legs. Things will click, and the results will get there. The team's pace is where all Ericsson needs is it for to click for him to be competitive. He can find himself in a position to win a race or two and be a regular top ten finisher.
Andretti Global is setup to have three drivers that finish in the top ten of the championship. All three of these drivers could win a race. It doesn't normally work out that way, but it is realistic. Of the three drivers, Ericsson is the least confident I feel about winning a race, mostly because he has yet to dominate an IndyCar race in his first six seasons. He has four career victories, but he has never led the most laps in a race and only once has he led more than a quarter of the laps in a race.
Two of Ericsson's victories have come when he has led five laps or fewer and on both occasions the leader had a mechanical issue while Ericsson was in second.
We know Ericsson can win, but mostly because he has put himself in a position to capitalize on misfortune, not because he has taken control. At some point, he must have a race where it is his and no one can take it away from him. If that doesn’t happen soon, it is fair to wonder if he has that ability to definitively be the man to beat.
Even if he doesn't win, the table is set for him to get four or five top five finishes and a dozen top ten finishes, which should be enough to crack the championship top ten.
The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.
