Eighteen days. A little more than two weeks until the NTT IndyCar Series season commences in St. Petersburg. We have been making our way through the IndyCar grid, covering race winners and the bottom of the grid, and a number of drivers in-between. That brings us to the most successful organization.
Team Penske remained at the top even if it didn't finish first. Winning nearly half the races and most of the pole positions, Penske is setting the tone in IndyCar. It might be beaten, but it requires exceptional results to do so. That will be the same in 2025, but for as well as Team Penske did last year, it was far from a spectacular season. Questions have already been raised for what is to come next.
At First Glance... We aren't sure of the stability of the organization
It is Team Penske. It is fine, but for the last few years we have gone into a season waiting for change to come at the Penske organization, even if the results suggests nothing should.
However, Will Power is in a contract year and has hired Fernando Alonso's management to representative him, the first time Power has had representation.
Josef Newgarden is coming off a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 but also his worst championship finish.
The only driver that feels safe for the long-term is Scott McLaughlin, who is coming off finishing third in the championship and has improved his championship finish every year he has been in IndyCar.
It feels like we are waiting on that next major change at Team Penske. We arguably got it in a way with Tim Cindric stepping down from the role of team president to just focusing on the IndyCar portion of the organization. That isn't that much, but it is something for Team Penske.
Penske isn't afraid to making changes, even if faced with difficult choices. Will Power is three years removed from a championship. Power turns 44 years old in less than a month. He is two years older than Hélio Castroneves when Castroneves was removed from a full-time ride. The future investment in Power would not be a long-term one. Newgarden and McLaughlin are both in their 30s. The stage is set for a third driver that lowers the average and look forward to the next decade.
There is always the pressure to perform at Penske. The second you believe things are settled they are bound to change. Newgarden might have won at Indianapolis but you cannot finish eighth in the championship on a regular basis. It has only happened once. The Tennessean cannot afford for it to happen twice. McLaughlin may have improved in each season he has been in IndyCar, but that doesn't mean it has bought himself a mulligan year. Results must remain at that top level.
The team will be fine. It is not going anywhere. It will be running at the front and winning races and likely have someone, if not multiple drivers, competing for a championship, but what the team looks like today, less than a month before the 2025 season opener, may be different from how it will look this time a year from now. It feels like change is around the corner.
2024 Team Penske Review
Wins: 8 (Barber, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Iowa I & II, Gateway, Portland, Milwaukee II)
Poles: 7 (St. Petersburg, Barber, Indianapolis 500, Iowa II, Gateway, Milwaukee I & II)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Scott McLaughlin), 4th (Will Power), 8th (Josef Newgarden)
Josef Newgarden - #2 Astemo/Hitachi/PPG Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
8: Oval victories since Newgarden's most recent road/street course victory (Road America 2022)
9: Results outside the top ten last season, his most since 11 in 2014
11: Times finishing worse than his starting position last season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Not finishing outside the top twenty in four or five races and Newgarden finishing first about two or three more times. It means finishing on the podium another four or five times. It would mean not tripping over themselves and coughing up positions on bad pit stops or lazy spins while running in the top five.
Newgarden is going to need to win a few road and street course races. On those disciplines, he needs to qualify better, starting in the top six and turning those into finishes better than where he started. For as good as he is on ovals, last season we saw what happens when he is slightly off and is not unstoppable in oval races. Better road course form can make up for when he isn’t Superman at Iowa, Gateway and Milwaukee.
We know Newgarden can do it. We have seen him do it twice. We have seen him come close to doing it another two or three times. It is not unthinkable he can be champion. He must figure out replicating the steps again.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
It is difficult to imagine Newgarden will be stubbing his toes as much as he did the year before. That solves part of the problem. Completely eradicating those off days isn't going to be the difference between eighth and first in the championship. Cleaning up those days likely only get him into the top five, but with work to do. What should go in his favor is Newgarden shouldn't lose another race victory due to a disqualification.
Last year, we saw a human Newgarden. For how well he ran, we also saw him have bad days at Iowa, something that we haven't seen from him at the circuit in a decade. We saw him make mistakes and go over the edge. This was after Newgarden spoke about the importance of him focusing on his craft prior to the 2024 season.
It isn't completely gone. The ovals will be where he can score a great number of points. He is going to win at least one, likely twice, possibly three times. If he does that, a championship push is within reason. The road and street courses are where he must find where he was from 2017 to 2022. If Newgarden can win once or twice on road and street courses, his championship chances increase exponentially.
To be fair to Newgarden, he went a decade between bad seasons in IndyCar, and the bad season he had last year included a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 victory. It is a matter of perspective and acknowledging that bad isn't always that bad. It isn't going to be easy for Newgarden to get back on top, but it is a plausible outcome for the 2025 season.
Scott McLaughlin - #3 XPEL/Good Ranchers/Pennzoil Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
5: Pole positions last season, the most in IndyCar
3.7142: Average finish on ovals last season
637: Laps led last season, the most in IndyCar
What does a championship season look like for him?
Accordingly to last season, a championship season is everything he did last year, except not being disqualified from the St. Petersburg season opener after finishing third. That flip in results was the difference between McLaughlin and Álex Palou in the championship. If the season opener results remained unchanged and the rest of 2024 played out the same, McLaughlin would have won the title on tiebreaker.
Of course, winning on tiebreaker is not what anyone wants to bank on. Winning on tiebreaker means you can likely be a little bit better. One position goes a long way.
McLaughlin has 95% of it. It is cleaning up those few bad days. Some of those were not McLaughlin's fault. A mechanical issue can pop out of nowhere. Pencil one of those in a season, and then you know what you will need in the remaining 16 races.
He can already win three races a season, and he can do it on both track disciplines. A championship might require another victory or two and a few more podium runs.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
McLaughlin is giving Newgarden a run for his money when it comes to oval form, especially on the shorter ovals. McLaughlin won at Iowa and Milwaukee. On both weekends, Newgarden struggled for speed. Insults was added to injury when Newgarden was taken out from pole position at the start of the second Milwaukee race.
If McLaughlin can clearly defeat Newgarden on ovals, it will set him up better in the championship fight. It is practical that McLaughlin could win four oval races. That would set him up nicely in the championship. Another one or two victories on road or street courses would be enough to put him over the top unless he has an absurd number of terrible finishes.
In four full IndyCar seasons, McLaughlin has gone 14th, fourth, third and third. You cannot climb forward after every season. He has two more spots to play with. Maximizing his best can put McLaughlin that next step higher. With the competitiveness of this championship, McLaughlin can run stellar and lose a little ground. That is how tight it is at the top of IndyCar. Neither would be a disappointment.
Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
22: Races since his most recent pole position (Iowa II 2023)
34: Races since his most recent pole position on a road/street course (Laguna Seca 2022)
68: Races since hist most recent victory from pole position (Harvest Grand Prix II 2020)
What does a championship season look like for him?
As a two-time champion, we know Power can win the title a few different ways. He can win a lot and control a championship by raising the bar on a near weekly basis. He can win once and just continue finishing third and fourth and make it frustrating to keep up.
One area here Power must improve is his qualifying form. It sounds strange to say about Power, but a pole position or three can put him in control of a race from the start and that would set him up better for scoring points.
Any championship season would not see Power stumbling into a few ruts and having multiple occasions where he isn't finishing in the top ten. It also means making sure the seatbelts are tight at the start of every race, especially the season finale when he has a shot at winning the title.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Anytime a driver has a winless season after the age of 40, it is concerning. Power had the proper rebound season to ease some tension last year with three victories and being alive for the championship into the season finale.
Three victories and four runner-up results is outstanding and rather surprising when that isn't enough to win a championship. I don't know if he can match that again, but we know he will have the capability to do so.
It is likely Power will win a few pole positions. He might not be in his prime, but he has the skill to pull one or two of those out. He has what it takes to win a race or two, possible on a road course and an oval.
The one thing that has followed Power over the last few seasons are the stumbles he has become prone to make in a season. The one year it didn't catch him, he won the championship, but what has cost him are the two-race stretches when he is 16th and 20th or 13th and 19th. They aren't the worst results, but they are enough ground lost to cost a driver a position or two in the championship. If one day happens, a second is usually not far behind. The third time is the charm, but Power cannot afford two bad races on the spin to win this championship. It is the one habit that he has trouble breaking.
The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.
