Showing posts with label IGTC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IGTC. Show all posts

Monday, December 29, 2025

2026 Sports Car Predictions

Sports car racing keeps things interesting. We are coming off a year where there was a new manufacturer joining the top echelon of sports car racing, and looking ahead we have a year where another new manufacturer will join the top echelon of sports car racing. 

There is plenty of competition to keep you busy in the sports car world, for world championships to domestic series, and it will all start soon enough. It technically has already started as the Asian Le Mans Series season got underway earlier this month, but there is still plenty to preview and predict ahead of the New Year.

FIA World Endurance Championship
1. Genesis Magma will score more points than Aston Martin's 2025 total
New year, and another new manufacturer is joining the WEC grid. Genesis Magma Racing is making its debut with the Genesis GMR-001. Pipo Derani and André Lotterer were contracted to lead the development of this program, and the team has added Mathieu Jaminet, Daniel Juncadella, Paul-Loup Chatin and Mathys Jaubert to round out the lineup.

The driver ability is there. The question will be the car. 

The 2025 season saw the debut of the Aston Martin Valkyrie AMR-LMH, a long-awaited entry into the series, which had sat on the shelf for a period of time. For all the attention it got for the noise from its 6.5 liter V12 engine, it only scored 24 points. Its only points finishes were the final two races. The #009 Aston Martin was fifth at Fuji and seventh at Bahrain. 

Genesis has been testing since August and it did a 32-hour test at Portimão in September. That doesn't mean it is going to run well, but I think Genesis scores earlier. It might just be a few points here and there, but they add up. There could be a big result later in the season that helps get Genesis exceed that 24-point total.

2. There will be fewer 1-2 overall finishes for manufacturers
Four out of eight races had a 1-2 finish for a manufacturer. 

Ferrari went 1-2-3 in Qatar and 1-2 at Spa-Francorchamps. Cadillac's lone victory of the season at Interlagos was also a 1-2 result. Toyota closed the 2025 season with a 1-2 in Bahrain.

In 2024, there was only one 1-2 result for a manufacturer, and it was the race a privateer team won. Hertz Team Jota won at Spa-Francorchamps while still a Porsche team ahead of the Porsche Penske Motorsport outfit. 

I don't see it happening again where the only day Cadillac or Toyota win a race also being a 1-2 result. I don't see if Aston Martin has one good race both cars end up 1-2. I think that will just be a quirk for 2025.

3. Every winner in LMGT3 will have a podium finish that isn't first
In 2025, six different entries won in LMGT3, but for four of those cars, their only podium finish was first-place. 

The championship-winning #92 Manthey Porsche won twice, but its next best finish was fourth. The #87 Akkodis ASP Team Lexus won twice as well, and also had its next best finish be fourth. The #33 TF Sport Corvette won the season opener and never finished better than sixth the rest of the season. The #95 United Autosport McLaren won at Austin, and its next best finish all season was seventh. 

For it to happen once is one thing, but for four of the six winners to have their only trips to the podium be victories is staggering. 

Now, it did happen three times in 2024, and it happened twice in the final year of GTE-Am in 2023. However, I predict a strong market correction and it doesn't happen at all in 2026, even if history says it is going to happen at least once.

4. Among the top five in the LMGT3 championship, British drivers are in the top two most-represented nationalities
Last season in LMGT3, there was a lack of British drivers in the top ten of the championship. There were only two. 

Ian James was fourth with Heart of Racing Aston Martin, and Jonny Edgar was sixth with TF Sport. 

Meanwhile, there were six Italians, three Americans, two Austrians and two Frenchmen. No other nationalities were represented multiple times. In the championship top five, there were three Italians, two Americans and two Austrians.

There are a few more Brits in LMGT3 this year. James and Edgar will each be back in their respective entries, and Edgar was only four points off cracking the top five in 2025. 

James Cottingham will be in a Manthey Porsche. Ben Tuck is back in a Proton Competition Ford. Darren Leung has moved to Team WRT BMW and Dan Harper will be in the other Team WRT entry. Tom Fleming will be in a McLaren with Garage 59. 

It will likely take at least three drivers to crack the top two most-represented. It feels possible.

IMSA
5. Six GTP entries have consecutive podium finishes
Last season, five different entries had a run of consecutive podium finishes at some point.

The #7 Porsche won the first three races and then finished second. The #6 Porsche had five consecutive podium finishes to open the season. The #24 Team RLL BMW was third in consecutive races at Long Beach and Laguna Seca. Wayne Taylor Racing's #10 Cadillac went second and third at Detroit and Watkins Glen. The #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac ended the season with a pair of victories.

But a sixth entry having consecutive podium finishes at some point in the season? Really? Is that possible? Well, it happened in 2022 and 2023. There were only six full-time entries in 2022, so that made it a lot easier, but even with all the cars in GTP for 2026, six of them will have consecutive podium finishes at some point during the season.

6. At least four drivers reach 15 career victories
There are made notable names approaching this milestone. 

Felipe Nasr is on 14 career victories, as is Jon Field, who will be back in LMP2 as Intersport Racing has returned to competition. Felipe Albuquerque, Sébastien Bourdais, Laurens Vanthoor and Matt Campbell are all on 13 victories, though Campbell will become an Endurance Cup driver for Porsche in 2026. Jack Hawksworth has 12 victories.

Those are seven drivers within three victories of the 15 milestone. I say just over half get there in 2025. Nasr feels almost certain to get one victory. With how well Porsche did, you would think Vanthoor could pick up two as well. Albuquerque, Bourdais and Hawksworth all went winless in 2025. All three aren't going to be shutout again in 2026. One will definitely win, and in all likelihood at least two will, and multiple victories cannot be ruled out.

7. At least four nationalities are represented between the two GT class winners at Road America
Last year at Road America, the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW of Madison Snow and Neil Verhagen won in GTD Pro, and the #021 Triarsi Competizione Ferrari of Kenton Koch and Onofrio Triarsi won in GTD. That is four American winners among the drivers.

However, in 2026, Road America is going to be a six-hour race. In the five endurance races on the 2025 calendar, at least four nationalities were represented among the winning GT drivers in four of them (Watkins Glen was the exception). 

We aren't going to see an all-American set of winners again. With third drivers likely in some entries, we are going to see more possibilities. I think there will be multiple flags being waved for these winners.

8. Two class champions also win the Endurance Cup championships
The champions are rarely the Endurance Cup champions. 

Last year, the Endurance Cup champions were third in GTP, second in LMP2, fourth in GTD Pro, and the Endurance Cup-only #21 AF Corse Ferrari won the title in GTD.

In 2024, two of the champions were also Endurance Cup champions, the #7 Porsche in GTP and the #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG in GTD. It also happened in 2023 when the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac took both titles in GTP and the #74 Riley entry did it in LMP3.

It feels quick for it to happen again, but I think we see a bit of a swing from 2025, and the top teams from the entire season will be on top at the endurance races as well.

Other
9. There will be at least four European Le Mans Series overall winners that have consecutive letters in their last name
Looking at the ELMS entry list, there are a fair number of LMP2 drivers with consecutive letters in their last name. 

Pietro Fittipaldi
Ryan Cullen
Louis Rousset
Enzo Trulli
Griffin Peebles
Alex Quinn
Richard Verschoor
Tom Dillmann has two sets of consecutive letters!
Nick Yelloly
François Perrodo
P.J. Hyett

Last year, three drivers with consecutive letters in their last name won overall, Perrodo, Daniel Juncadella and Esteban Masson. I think that number increases this season.

10. In the Matt Bell battle, LMGT3 Matt Bell will have the better class finish over LMP3 Matt Bell in majority of the races
Two drivers, one name, and the Matt Bell confusion will hit its greatest heights in 2025 when both drivers will be competing in the European Le Mans Series.

Matthew Richard Bell will be competing in the #11 Eurointernational Liger in LMP3. Matthew Thomas Bell will be competing in the #33 TF Sport Corvette in LMGT3.

In the last two seasons, Matthew Richard Bell and Eurointernational has finished second in the LMP3 championship. Matthew Thomas Bell has not compete in ELMS since 2024 when he ran an LMP2 Pro-Am entry with Team Virage. He spent the last three seasons in IMSA, and the last two in a Corvette GT3 with AWA. 

Eurointernational has been a strong team in LMP3, but I think Matthew Thomas Bell with TF Sport will pull off better results than Matthew Richard Bell in LMP3. 

11. No drivers win in multiple entries in Intercontinental GT Challenge
Last year, Kelvin van der Linde took the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship as van der Linde won four of the five races. He won the four races in three different entries. 

At the Bathurst 12 Hour, he won in the #32 Team WRT BMW. He won the 24 Hours Nürburgring with the #99 ROWE Racing BMW. Van der Linde was back in the #32 Team WRT BMW for the Suzuka 1000 km, but he won in the #46 Team WRT BMW at the Indianapolis 8 Hour.

What happens in 2026? No driver wins in multiple entries. It is going to be pretty straight forward. If you win in one car, then you are going to win in that car later in the season, if you win again. 

12. The number of home race winners in GT World Challenge Asia at least doubles
We don't talk about GT World Challenge Asia often in this space, and we aren't going to increase our coverage, but we need another prediction and we need to mix it up. 

In 2025, twice where there home race winners. Malaysian Prince Jefri Ibrahim won at Sepang, and Chinese due Ye Yifei and Zhang Yaqi won in Beijing. 

In 2026, there will be two rounds in China, as well as two rounds in Japan, plus Sepang remains and Mandalika is also on the schedule representing Indonesia. 

With an additional Chinese round, we are highly likely to see another race with home winners, and while Japanese drivers are not overly abundant in GTWC Asia, you would think after being shut out and having no Japanese drivers win overall in 2024 and 2025, at least one will do it in 2026, and there are two Japanese rounds where it could happen. 

Four predictions are now complete, and you can catch up on NASCAR, motorcycle racing and Formula One predictions before we conclude the year with IndyCar predictions. 



Monday, December 15, 2025

2025 For the Love of Indy Awards

We have reached the end of another year, and the motorsports year is effectively over. We are so deep into 2025, seasons that will conclude in 2026 have already begun, but before we get into next year, let's honor the top moments from this year. 

There were a number of incredible performances from the world of motorsports. Some racers confirmed their greatest and put their names even higher in the record books. Breakout performances came as we had expected. There were fierce challenges and a few tussles that went to the very last lap, even the last few corners. We also saw contentious moments that we wish had played out better. This was also a year where the action in the courtroom received just as much attention as the action on the racetrack.

Plenty of memorable moments occurred in 2025, and this is our chance to highlight what stood out over the last year.

Racer of the Year
Description: Given to the best racer over the course of 2025.
And the Nominees are:
Lando Norris
Max Verstappen
Álex Palou
Kelvin van der Linde
Sébastien Ogier
Toprak Razgatlioglu

And the winner is... Álex Palou
In one of the most dominant seasons IndyCar has ever seen, Álex Palou left his mark as one of the greatest to ever compete in the series. If there was any question over how good Palou's talent is, it was answered in 2025.

Expectations were high for the three-time champion who had won the last two titles, but Palou floored us all with his next act. He had already achieved greatness, but this was a special level. He opened the season with consecutive victories, including a memorable drive from over ten seconds back at Thermal Club to win the race. After finishing second at Long Beach, Palou followed it up with three consecutive victories, the last of which was at the Indianapolis 500.

The only thing missing in Palou's already esteemed career, Palou topped IndyCar's most historic race. Already coming close to Indianapolis victory in 2021, Palou had a methodical race and waited for the moment to take control. With a well-timed pass into turn one, Palou took the lead from Marcus Ericsson and dared Ericsson and the rest of the field to beat him in the final sprint to the checkered flag. No one could. That was the theme of the season.

Palou didn't just win the championship, he comprehensively smashed the grid, and he set marks we have not seen since IndyCar reunification. Eight victories were the most since 2007. He clinched the title with two races remaining, the first time the title has been secured with multiple races to go since 2002. He scored over 76% of the maximum total points that could be scored in a season, the most for a champion when there has only been one IndyCar series since 1979. 

Not to forget mentioning this was Palou's third consecutive championship and his fourth title in his six IndyCar season. And he is still only 28 years old. We are witnessing something breathtaking. There is no end in sight for Palou's greatness, and just when you thought you had Palou figured out, he came away and blew the doors off history.

On the other nominees:
Norris became World Drivers' Champion in what was meant to be his season for McLaren, but after a mechanical issue at the Dutch Grand Prix, Norris had work to do to overcome teammate Oscar Piastri, but in the final stretch of the season, Norris picked away at Piastri's lead. For over two months, Norris showed his ability to extract everything for the McLaren MCL39, and he could not be defeated. Piastri could not hold off nor keep up, and Norris capped off a seven-victory season, which include triumphs in Monaco and his home race at Silverstone, with a world title. 

It wasn't for a lack of effort that Verstappen came up shy in earning his fifth consecutive world championship. It was frankly incredible that he came as close as he did. After his home race at Zandvoort, Verstappen was 104 points behind Piastri and 70 points behind Norris. After winning only twice in the first 14 races and only having five podium finishes in the same timeframe, Verstappen ended with ten consecutive podium finishes, six of which were victories, but it only brought him within two points of Norris. There were a few races where Verstappen left points on the table, his time penalty at Barcelona stands out, but when his back was to the wall, Verstappen rose to a level no one else could match. They were only fortunate they were able to hold off the charge.

It was a triple-champion season for van der Linde. It started with a GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup title with Team WRT co-driver Charles Weerts. Then van der Linde and Weerts combined for the overall GT World Challenge Europe championship, which included a victory in the endurance race at Circuit Paul Ricard. The most impressive title was the Intercontinental GT Challenge title, where van der Linde won four of five rounds, the Bathurst 12 Hour, 24 Hours Nürburgring, Suzuka 1000 km and the Indianapolis 8 Hour. 

Most retirees spent their lives not doing what dictated their lives through their prime years and caused the most headaches and frustrations. Ogier did not get that memo. The Frenchman has been dabbling in rally the last few years, and that was the plan for this year. The problem was Ogier is still really good at what he does. Even after skipping rounds, his was still at the top of the championship. Soon he took the championship lead. The run at another title was too great to pass up. Ogier went for it, and even though he lost ground in the Central European Rally, Ogier did enough in Japan and Saudi Arabia to claim a record-tying ninth World Rally Championship.

How does one top an 18-win, 27-podium championship season? If you are Razgatlioglu, you win 21 races and stand on 31 podiums. You scored 89 points more than the year before and claim your third World Superbike championship. He started slow once again at Phillip Island, but once into the meat of the season, the Turkish rider could not be caught, winning 13 consecutive races at one point.

Past Winners
2012: Kyle Larson
2013: Marc Márquez
2014: Marc Márquez
2015: Nick Tandy
2016: Shane van Gisbergen
2017: Brendon Hartley
2018: Scott Dixon
2019: Marc Márquez
2020: Lewis Hamilton
2021: Kyle Larson
2022: Max Verstappen
2023: Max Verstappen
2024: Toprak Razgatlioglu

Race of the Year
Description: Best Race of 2025.
And the Nominees are:
Australian Grand Prix
MotoGP's French Grand Prix
Moto2's British Grand Prix
Snap-On Milwaukee Mile 250
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters Finale from Hockenheim

And the winner is... MotoGP's French Grand Pix
The changing conditions caused minor chaos ahead of the MotoGP round from Le Mans. After one waved off start due to riders changing bikes, the race had an even more chaotic start as most started on slick tires before the rain began to fall again. This sent riders sliding and teams scrambling to adjust, but not all. 

Johann Zarco and the Castrol LCR Honda team started on the wet tires from 11th on the grid. Zarco fell back to 17th on the first lap, but as the weather rolled in, he started picking up spots and by lap eight, he was the leader. Due to the pit stop and combination of long lap penalties, Zarco was significantly ahead of the field, and the intensifying rain made it difficult for anyone to overcome the deficit to the Frenchman. Zarco, for his part, rode a focused race, not pushing the limit, but running confidently to put more time between himself and the competition.

Throughout the field, riders clashed in an attempt to get the most out of this race. Fabio Quartararo went down early from pole position. Francesco Bagnaia went down and lost a lap he could never get back. Álex Márquez had a pair of falls ruin his race. But we also saw Fermín Aldeguer and Pedro Acosta slug it out for the final podium position. Takaaki Nakagami also started on wet tires and used it to finish sixth from 22nd. Lorenzo Savadori scored his career best finish as a replacement rider for the injured Jorge Martín, starting 21st and finishing ninth.

But the man of the hour was Zarco, an unexpected result created through adverse conditions. The Frenchman won on home soil by 19.907 seconds over Marc Márquez, ending Ducati's winning streak at 22 races, giving Honda its first victory in over a year, and it was the first French Grand Prix victory for a French rider since 1954.

On the other nominees:
The first race of the Formula One season told the story for the entire 2025 season. Oscar Piastri appeared to have what it took to bring the fight to Lando Norris at McLaren, but when the rains came, Piastri spun off the road and his shot at victory was gone. Meanwhile, after spending a portion of the offseason wondering how far Red Bull would fall, Max Verstappen showed he would be a threat and pushed Norris to the finish. Norris did not crack, and won by just over eight-tenths of a second. Meanwhile, Andrea Kimi Antonelli made his debut and went from 16th to fourth. Alexander Albon had a competitive day at Williams, and Ferrari had a minor letdown.

Moto2's race from Silverstone was a tightly contested affair from lights out to the checkered flag. It was mostly a race between Arón Canet, David Alonso and Diogo Moreira. At the start of the final lap, it appeared we were watching Canet and Alonso chasing victory, but their battle opened the door for Senna Agius to sweep through the final few corners to take his first career victory while Moreira snuck ahead for second. Alonso was third while Canet went from first to fourth in the final two corners.

IndyCar's trip to Milwaukee saw an abundance of passing as the teams dealt with tire wear, and it became a factor in how the final results would play out. Álex Palou had a handle on the race though, and he looked set for another victory. But one spritz of rain slowed the race, and allowed a number of drivers to make a pit stop for tires about 40 laps to the finish. Palou stayed out to maintain the lead. Behind him saw a scramble as drivers looked to charge down the Catalan driver. Christian Rasmussen broke away from the pack, and picked his way to the front. He reached Palou, who made a strong effort to keep Rasmussen in second, but the fresh tires were the difference, and a pass on the outside put the Dane into first. Rasmussen drove on the ragged edge to the checkered flag, as he took his first career IndyCar victory.

The final race of the DTM season was a dream scenario. Seven drivers could have walked away from Hockenhem as champion. Marco Wittmann had one of the best cars in the race, but he was shuffled back during pit stops while Ayhancan Güven leaped into first during the pit cycle. As the race shook out, Güven was leading the championship despite entering the race fifth in points. However, the Turkish driver was only four points clear of Lucas Auer, and if Güven dropped to second, he would lose five points and fall to second in the championship. On the final lap, Wittmann took the lead out of turn 10, but diving into turn 12 in the stadium section, Güven used every bit of racetrack and even some grass to re-take the lead with four corners left in the season. Güven's move won him the race and the title.

Past Winners
2012: Indianapolis 500
2013: British motorcycle Grand Prix
2014: Bathurst 1000
2015: Australian motorcycle Grand Prix
2016: Spanish Grand Prix
2017: All the races at the World Superbike/World Supersport weekend at Phillip Island
2018: Petit Le Mans
2019: Honda 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
2020: Turkish Grand Prix
2021: Monaco ePrix
2022: British Grand Prix
2023: 12 Hours of Sebring
2024: Indianapolis 500

Achievement of the Year
Description: Best success by a driver, team, manufacture, etc.
And the Nominees are:
Nick Tandy's Completes the "Big-Six"
Sébastien Ogier's Ninth World Rally Championship
Shane van Gisbergen's Record for Victories in a NASCAR Cup Series Rookie Season
Corey Heim's Record for Most Victories in a Single NASCAR Truck Series Season
Álex Palou's Championship Season

And the winner is... Sébastien Ogier's Ninth World Rally Championship
I don't think anyone saw this coming. 

With Ogier planning on running a part-time season in the World Rally Championship, Ogier's success pushed him to compete for the world championship. Through the first eight rounds, the Frenchman had the had missed as many rounds as he had rally victories (three) and yet he was still 21 points off the championship lead. Finishes of third, first and first in the next three rounds lifted him to first in points. Ogier's hand was forced to make a championship run.

But it wasn't easy. Ogier had to overcome issues in the Central European Rally. He was 13 points off Elfyn Evans with two rounds remaining. Ogier scored the maximum points with victory in Rally Japan, and a third in the inaugural Rally Saudi Arabia gave him a record-tying WRC title. 

After three seasons running part-time, Ogier won a title while still part-time. The mark Sébastien Loeb first reached 13 years ago of nine world championships has now been matched, and I am not sure anyone saw that coming let alone the way it did. No one saw the record-tying title looking like this, going to a driver who was slowly stepping away from competition only to be so successful he had to keep returning to claim the ultimate prize.

On the other nominees:
We don't see new marks reached in motorsports, but Tandy achieved something no other driver had done in motorsports history. With his victory in the 24 Hours of Daytona, it gave him overall victories in the 24 Hours of Le Mans, 24 Hours Nürburgring, the 24 Hours of Spa, and now Daytona. He came the first driver to win all four of those 24-hour races overall. But it gets better! Six weeks later, Tandy won the 12 Hours of Sebring overall. Throw in an overall victory at Petit Le Mans a decade ago, and he is the first driver to win the "Big Six" endurance races overall. A Bathurst 12 Hour victory would put him in even more rarified air.

Did anyone think the record for most victories in a NASCAR Cup Series rookie season would fall even with van Gisbergen competing in a series with a half-dozen road course races? Van Gisbergen was the favorite in every road course race, but this is NASCAR. The favorite does not win that often. Cautions do not fall in a driver's favor. A restart is botched. Someone runs into someone else. Drivers become collateral damage. Not in van Gisbergen's case. He won five races, and most of those were shellackings. Entering this year, the rookie record for victories was three. Tony Stewart did it in 1999. Jimmie Johnson matched it in 2002. In 2025, van Gisbergen obliterated it. It is hard to see it being matched anytime soon. 

Setting a series-record for victories in a season is impressive no matter the series. Heim was the championship favorite for the Truck Series in 2025, and he still exceeded the expectations of many. No driver had ever hit double-figures for victories in this category. Heim won 11 times. He won at Daytona (after Parker Kligerman was disqualified). He won at Charlotte. He won all three road course races. In the playoffs, he won five of seven races, including the finale to claim the title after having to restart ninth on new tires at the start of overtime. Heim's average finish was fifth. He had 19 top five finishes and 21 top ten finishes. He led 1,625 laps. The next closest driver led 1,128 fewer.

Palou's season was incredible. Along with his third consecutive championship and fourth in his IndyCar career, this was only the ninth time since 1946 a driver has won at least eight races in a season. It was the sixth time a driver had at least 13 podium finishes and the ninth time a driver had at least 14 top five results. His 711 points were the most in a season since the Indy Racing League started awarding 50 points for a victory in 1998. He scored over 76% of the maximum amount of points. Without a question, Palou was the best driver in IndyCar in 2025.

Past Winners
2012: DeltaWing
2013: Sebastian Vettel for winning nine consecutive races on his way to a fourth consecutive title
2014: Marc Márquez: Setting the record for most wins in a premier class season.
2015: Justin Wilson Memorial Family Auction
2016: Jimmie Johnson for his seventh NASCAR Cup championship
2017: Jonathan Rea: For becoming the first rider to win three consecutive World Superbike championships.
2018: Robert Wickens for winning IndyCar Rookie of the Year despite missing the final three races.
2019: Joe Gibbs Racing setting single-season record for most Cup victories by a in NASCAR's modern-era.
2020: Donald Davidson for 55 years of service to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Indianapolis 500
2021: Team WRT's championship success across multiple series and disciplines
2022: Max Verstappen achieving the most grand prix victories in a single season
2023: Max Verstappen breaking the record for highest winning percentage in a Formula One Season
2024: Jorge Martín and Pramac Racing's first MotoGP championship for an independent team

Moment of the Year
Description: The Most Memorable Moment in the World of Racing during the 2025 season.
And the Nominees are:
Team Penske's Attenuator Penalty at Indianapolis
McLaren Flipping Positions at Monza
Nico Hülkenberg's Podium Finish at Silverstone
William Byron's Flat Tire at Phoenix
23XI Racing/Front Row Motorsports vs. NASCAR Settlement

And the winner is... A TIE! Nico Hülkenberg's Podium Finish at Silverstone and 23XI Racing/Front Row Motorsports vs. NASCAR Settlement

The news at the end of last week was too hard to ignore. One moment will stand out for the beauty of sport and perseverance. The other is the first domino to fall in seismic change to one of the largest sanctioning bodies in the world. 

Hülkenberg had become the journeyman driver everyone loved. His Formula One career was over five years ago, but a few one-off drives as a super-sub kept him in the conversation. Everyone was comfortable with Hülkenberg being the record-holder for most grand prix starts without a podium finish, a dubious honor to hold, but one that has some meaning in terms of integrity and respect from those within Formula One. 

The British Grand Prix did not appear to be the place for a historic first. Hülkenberg started 19th, but in a  race of changing conditions, Hülkenberg and the Sauber team played the strategy right, and Hülkenberg was able to pick up positions. He was able to run with the big dogs, and in the closing laps, it appeared he would have his toughest test as Lewis Hamilton took on new tires in an effort to get on the podium. However, Hamilton's fresher rubber was not enough to leap ahead of Hülkenberg, and the German's tires held on. All eyes were on third as he took the checkered flag.

One record was gone. Another was created. In his 239th start, Nico Hülkenberg was able to claim his first career podium finish, a universally beloved result. 

------------

For over a year, we have been anticipating a legal showdown in the NASCAR world. When 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports did not sign the charter renewals in September 2024, it signaled a challenge of NASCAR's order of operations that had largely gone uncontested for over 75 years. Over the entire 2025 season, the tension was building as a day in court was destined to occur. 

We got nine days. Nine days where secrets were revealed and the fabric of the largest sanctioning body in the United States was torn. Everyone went into this trial knowing nothing would be the same when it was over, and after a few days and testimonies that were unflattering to NASCAR, a settlement was reached that saw charters become permanent as well as additional revenue being shared with the teams that previously remained entirely in NASCAR's control. 

The dust is still settling in the aftermath of this case, and it will be a few years before we really see how the landscape of NASCAR has changed, but it is going to be different and it will all stem from Thursday December 11, 2025 after 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports did the unthinkable and questioned the France family's grip on premier stock car racing. 

On the other nominees:
For the second consecutive year, Team Penske caused the greatest waves in IndyCar, and it wasn't for success on the racetrack. During inspection for the second day of Indianapolis 500 qualifying, it was found that the Team Penske cars all had illegal modifications to the attenuators. In the immediate aftermath, Will Power and Josef Newgarden were moved to the rear of the grid, strategists were suspended, and tempers flared once again in the aftermath of a Penske cheating scandal. It turned out to be a significant moment for the team, as team president Tim Cindric, managing director Ron Ruzewski and general manager Kyle Moyer were all dismissed from the team. Add to it that Penske had its worst season since 1999, and 2025 will be remembered for all the wrong reasons in Team Penske's long-esteemed history.

For a brief moment, Oscar Piastri was in control of the World Drivers' Championship. A victory in the Netherlands combined with Lando Norris' retirement saw Piastri up 34 points with eight races remaining. In the next race at Monza, Norris was ahead in second while Piastri ran in third. After the final pit cycle, Piastri moved into second after Norris had a slow stop changing the front left tire. Once the cars were back on track, Piastri was asked to readdress the positions and allow Norris through. Piastri reluctantly did, and it gave Norris three more points. In the moment it was suspect as to why the championship leader was returning points to his teammate, but at the end of the season, when Norris ended two points clear of Max Verstappen, that one decision stands out even more.

We were three laps away from a clean end to the NASCAR Cup Series season, and Denny Hamlin was three laps away from scoring his seventh victory of 2025, and claiming his first Cup Series championship. Suddenly, William Byron was in the wall, and the championship finish became even cloudier. It would come down to a final round of pit stops. Hamlin took four tires. Kyle Larson took two. Two tires were enough as Larson ended up third while Hamlin was sixth. It was another unsatisfying end to a NASCAR season, and one that could not be ignored.

Past Winners
2012: Alex Zanardi
2013: 24 Hours of Le Mans
2014: Post-race at the Charlotte and Texas Chase races.
2015: Matt Kenseth vs. Joey Logano
2016: Toyota Slows at Le Mans
2017: Fernando Alonso announcing his Indianapolis 500 ride
2018: Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson battle at Chicagoland
2019: Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing knocking out Fernando Alonso and McLaren and Penske Purchasing Hulman & Co.
2020: March 12-13
2021: The entire Formula One season
2022: Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville
2023: Shane van Gisbergen winning the NASCAR Cup race at the Chicago street course
2024: The Indianapolis 500 Post-Storm

Pass of the Year
Description: Best pass of 2025.
And the Nominees are:

And the winner is... Ayhancan Güven on Marco Wittmann in turn 12 at Hockenheim
Güven had to make the move to win the championship. After pulling off a great pit strategy to put him in first, Güven had just lost the lead to a rather strong Wittmann, and the stadium section at Hockenheim is not the friendliest to passing. 

Turn 12 is the last true braking zone before the flowing final four corners, and Güven took his shot up the inside. He dropped his left side tires into the grass, but he was side-by-side with Wittmann, and some contact was made. Wittmann was pushed wide, and Güven went through. There was no time for a counter move, and Güven's pass not only won a race but completed an astonishing championship drive.

On the other nominees:
Marc Márquez had made a slight mistake early into the sprint race from Austin, and it cost him the lead. Ducati teammate Francesco Bagnaia and his brother Álex split Marc exiting turn 18, but Marc was able to power down into turn 19 and dove up the inside. Effortlessly, he was back into the lead before the final corner of the circuit. It was a statement move of what was to come in 2025.

When the laps are running out at the Indianapolis 500, any pass feels risky. Ericsson led the race, but had an eager Palou behind him. Not to forget mentioning the leaders had two back-markers ahead and both leaders were in dirty air. This was to the benefit of Ericsson, as there was additional risk for Palou. The move was always going to come, but with 14 laps remaining, it may have come sooner than we thought. Palou made a late dive up the inside of turn one, and Ericsson could not react. Palou was into the lead. There was plenty of laps remaining, but at that moment, it felt like the race was over. Palou was practically unbeatable and he dared Ericsson and the rest of the field to take the Indianapolis 500 from him. No one could.

On the final lap of the Moto2 race from Aragón, the top two riders were going for their first career victories in the category. Deniz Öncü and Diogo Moreira were feeling each other out as it appeared the race would come down to the final lap. Moreira took the lead into turn five, but Öncü remained on the Brazilian's heels. Öncü made the move to the outside off the final corner and it was enough to beat Moreira to the line by 0.003 seconds.

The NASCAR Truck Series finale from Phoenix saw a late caution, and a slow stop for four tires knocked Corey Heim from the lead to ninth, and the fourth-best of the four championship contenders. At the restart for the first overtime attempt, Heim went to the very inside of the racetrack, and with four fresh tires he entered in eighth and came out the other side in second. Another caution had come out before the field could take the white flag, but this move set up Heim up to restart second for the second attempt, and right next to championship rival Ty Majeski. With the tire advantage, Heim was in control, and he pulled away to take the race victory and championship.

Past Winners
2012: Simon Pagenaud at Baltimore
2013: Robert Wickens at Nürburgring and Peter Dempsey in the Freedom 100
2014: Ryan Blaney on Germán Quiroga
2015: Laurens Vanthoor from 4th to 2nd on the outside in the Bathurst 12 Hour
2016: Scott McLaughlin on Mark Winterbottom at Surfers Paradise
2017: Renger van der Zande: From second to first on Dane Cameron at Laguna Seca
2018: Alexander Rossi for all his passes in the Indianapolis 500
2019: Álex Rins on Marc Márquez in the final corner at Silverstone in the British motorcycle Grand Prix
2020: Pipo Derani on Ricky Taylor into turn one at Road Atlanta
2021: Shane van Gisbergen from fourth to second at Sandown
2022: Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville
2023: António Félix da Costa on Jean-Éric Vergne in turn eight of the final lap of the Cape Town ePrix
2024: Josef Newgarden on Patricio O'Ward for the lead on the final lap of the Indianapolis 500

The Eric Idle Award
Description: "When You're Chewing on Life's Gristle, Don't Grumble, Give a Whistle, And This'll Help Things Turn Out For The Best, and...  Always Look On The Bright Side of Life."
And the Nominees are:
Denny Hamlin
Connor Zilisch
Jack Doohan
The #7 Porsche Penske Motorsport Entry
Team Penske's IndyCar Program

And the winner is... Connor Zilisch
Zilisch smacked around the competition in NASCAR's second division in 2025. Ten victories, 20 top five finishes, 22 top ten finishes, eight pole positions and over 1,000 laps led. 

And yet it did not end in a championship. Despite finishing third in the Phoenix finale, Zilisch lost the championship as Jesse Love won the race. It was Love's second victory of the season, his first since the Daytona season opener. 

Zilisch was left emotional after his astonishing season that saw him overcome multiple injuries and multiple missed races would only be good enough for second in the history books. 

The silver-lining is Zilisch had earned universal sympathy for his result. Going into the Phoenix finale, many dreaded how the season would end for all three NASCAR national series as in two of them there were two deserving champions who stood above the rest of the competition. Even in a loss, Zilisch won the admiration of many because over an entire season, everyone saw how his ability was greater than his competition.

On the other nominees:
Same story, different series. We all know what happened to Hamlin in the final race of the NASCAR Cup Series season. He had never been that close to a championship. Three laps is all that was behind him and a championship. In a format that ultimately only rewards what happens in the final race, Hamlin had done everything right. He led 208 laps. He was clear of the field and then one caution reset the field. One round of pit stops shuffled the deck. After two more laps, Hamlin was three positions short of his first career championship. 

Doohan got six races in Formula One with Alpine, but even before the first race of the season, Doohan had lost the confidence of the team. He was always bound to lose his ride. Alpine had more interest in Franco Colapinto. It was only a matter of time before the Argentine would get the race seat. Doohan had no favors in an Alpine that was the worst car on the grid. With no points, the Australian was canned. If there is any consolation, Colapinto never scored a point in 2025, and he never looked any more competitive than Doohan did.

The year started with such promise with victories in the 24 Hours of Daytona and 12 Hours of Sebring for the #7 Porsche Penske Motorsport entry, and it won at Long Beach to make it three wins on the spin to start 2025. However, the #7 Porsche could not get the championship over the line. The #7 Porsche of Felipe Nasr and Nick Tandy finished tenth or worse in the final four races. Even worse, the #6 Porsche won the championship despite winning only one race the entire season. 

This was one of the worst seasons Team Penske has ever had in IndyCar. The team did win a pair of races, but it failed to win any of the first 14 races. On five occasions did the team fail to have a single top ten finisher. None of the three drivers finished better than eighth in the championship, and the season was marred with another cheating scandal, this one leading to the dismal of three notable personnel. 

Past Winners
2012: Ben Spies
2013: Sam Hornish, Jr.
2014: Alexander Rossi
2015: McLaren
2016: Toyota
2017: Nick Heidfeld
2018: Brett Moffitt
2019: Dennis Lind
2020: Marc Márquez
2021: Liam Lawson
2022: Linus Lundqvist
2023: Eli Tomac
2024: Kyle Larson

Comeback of the Year
Description: The Best Comeback in the 2025 season.
And the Nominees are:
Álex Palou overcoming a ten-second gap at Thermal Club.
José António Rueda: Last to first at the British Grand Prix
David Alonso: 11th to 1st at the Hungarian Grand Prix
Isack Hadjar: From failing to start the Australian Grand Prix to Formula One Podium
Max Verstappen: From 104 points back to two points short of a fifth world championship

And the winner is... José Antònio Rueda: Last to first at the British Grand Prix.
Moto3 championship leader Rueda was forced to start last at Silverstone after being penalized for slow riding on the racing line during qualifying. Rolling off 26th, Rueda would have 15 laps to get back to the front after he was supposed to start on pole position.

Rueda was up eight spots in the first lap. He was up four more spots after lap two. He gained positions on each of the first seven laps, which saw him rise to fifth. It became a little more of a struggle as he reached the top of the grid, but he was up to third on lap 11, and second on lap 12. On lap 13, he took the lead with two laps remaining, but the final lap brought a stiff challenge from Máximo Quiles, who took the lead, but Rueda outmaneuver Quiles in the final corners as an outside-inside move saw Rueda slip through in the final corner to win by 0.046 seconds.

On the other nominees:
IndyCar's trip to Thermal Club looked to be wrapped up with 20 laps remaining. Patricio O'Ward was over ten seconds ahead of the field heading into the final round of pit stop. However, Palou had a new set of alternate tires for the final run to the finish. O'Ward had primary tires, and this was the difference. Palou clawed back time in a blink, and soon he was in the lead, checking out on the competition. What went from a ten-second deficit turned into a ten-second victory for Palou in fewer than 20 laps.

David Alonso did not get off to a great start in Hungary. Dropping from eighth to 11th on the first lap of the Moto2 race, Alonso had some work to do in the inaugural visit to the Balaton Park. Alonso started slow on a circuit where it was difficult to pass. He was back up to eighth by lap four. He spent the next six laps in seventh before he cracked the top five on lap 14 of 25. The final stretch is where Alonso came to life. He went from fourth to second in four laps, and he had Manuel González in his sights for the lead on the final lap. Alonso got it, but nearly threw it away running wide in the final set of corners, but the Colombian had enough to cross the line first, scoring his maiden Moto2 victory.

For a split second, we all thought there wasn't a way Isack Hadjar would survive a full season after he spun on the formation lap. We saw a driver despondent to his mistake, as Hadjar seemed to also believe he had thrown his Formula One chance away. The saving grace was Hadjar meeting Anthony Hamilton, Lewis Hamilton's father, in the paddock area where Hamilton consoled the heartbroken and devastated driver. That moment of comfort possibly has saved Hadjar's career. This mistake on his first act on stage did not derail the promise we had seen. Instead, Hadjar went on to score his first points two races later. He ended up finishing third at the Dutch Grand Prix and ended the season 12th in the championship, the top Racing Bulls driver.

It didn't quite fully pan out, but the fact Verstappen went from over four races behind the championship lead to being alive for the title at the Abu Dhabi season finale is nothing but staggering work. At no point over the first two-thirds of the season did it appear Verstappen had what it took to challenge the McLaren drivers, but he ended the season with ten consecutive podium finishes, six of which were victories. He came two points short. He could find two points wherever he wishes from this season. The obvious spot is Barcelona, where causing a collision with George Russell cost him a ten-second penalty, dropping him from fifth to tenth, a nine-point penalty in terms of positions lost. Verstappen nearly pulled it off. It was remarkable he made it that close.

Past Winners
2013: Michael Shank Racing at the 24 Hours of Daytona
2014: Juan Pablo Montoya to IndyCar
2015: Kyle Busch
2016: Max Verstappen from 15th to 3rd in the final 18 laps in the wet in the Brazilian Grand Prix
2017: Kelvin van der Linde: From third to first after a botched pit stop in the final 20 minutes in the 24 Hours Nürburgring
2018: Billy Monger: Returning to racing after losing his legs and finishing sixth in the BRDC British Formula 3 Championship with four podium finishes and a pole position at Donington Park.
2019: MotoE: For getting to the grid after fire destroyed every motorcycle prior to the first round of the season
2020: The #7 Acura Team Penske: Coming from last in the championship to winning the IMSA DPi championship
2021: Kyle Busch's victory at Pocono
2022: Robert Wickens
2023: McLaren's 2023 Formula One Season
2024: Chase Sexton: From last to first in Hangtown

Most Improved
Description: Racer, Team or Manufacture Who Improved The Most from 2024 to 2025.
And the Nominees are:
Álex Márquez: From eighth on 173 points with one podium finish to second on 467 points with three victories in MotoGP.
Ayumu Iwasa: From fifth on 63.5 points to first on 124 points in Super Formula
Christian Rasmussen: From 11.6 points per start and his best finish being ninth as a rookie to 18.41 points per start and a victory in his sophomore season.
Dale Coyne Racing: From no finish better than 13th to a podium finish and seven top ten finishes.
Ford Multimatic Motorsports: From no cars in the top five of the IMSA GTD Pro championship to a third-place championship finish and three victories.

And the winner is... Álex Márquez
On a year-old Ducati and with his brother Marc with the factory team, Álex Márquez rose to his greatest heights in MotoGP. Álex somehow beat Francesco Bagnaia. We thought 2025 would see Marc Márquez and Bagnaia duke it out over 22 races in a fierce competition between the factory Ducati riders. Instead, Marc Márquez's closest competition was his brother on the older model. 

Álex was in Marc's wing mirrors the entire season, and few got as close as Álex did. Álex led the champion after Austin. At Jerez, he scored his first career MotoGP victory after Marc had a fall early, and Álex was still in the championship lead. That would not stick as Marc showed his might over the summer, but no one else kept up as well as Álex did. 

Along with the Jerez victory, Álex Márquez also won at Barcelona and Sepang. He had seven runner-up finishes this season and he had another two finishes in third. He won three sprint races and had 15 sprint race podium finishes. Marc missing the final four races allowed Álex to finish 78 points behind his brother. At the time of Marc's injury in Indonesia, he was 183 points clear of his brother, but Álex was 114 points clear of Marco Bezzecchi in third, and he was the second-best Ducati rider as Bagnaia wound up fifth.

On the other nominees:
In year two in Super Formula, Iwasa was more competitive and was competing well with the veterans Sho Tsuboi and Kakunoshin Ohta. Iwawa scored his first career victory at Sportsland SUGO, and he was a regular podium finisher, but a few bad days pulled down his championship hopes. Entering the final round from Suzuka, he was 14.5 points off the championship lead. A retirement in the first race was a set-back, but a fourth in a makeup race from the second Fuji doubleheader revived his title chances. In the final race of the season, Iwasa won from pole position to take the title by 5.5 points over Tsuboi.

After a good but not great rookie season, Rasmussen showed better strength in his second IndyCar season. He was difficult to race at times but Rasmussen was getting better finishes with Ed Carpenter Racing. He scored his first career podium finish at Gateway after overcoming a fueling issue that threw off his strategy the entire race. He looked good at all the ovals. At Milwaukee, taking tires with about 40 laps to go when a spritz of rain slowed the race allowed Rasmussen to make a late charge. Passing the likes of Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, Alexander Rossi and Patricio O'Ward, Rasmussen found himself battling Álex Palou for the victory, and Rasmussen powered through to take an unforgettable first career victory.

In 2024, Dale Coyne Racing was an afterthought in IndyCar. At no point could the team string together a good run of results. With a constant rotation of drivers, the team never had a top ten finish. Its cars were the bottom two in the Leaders' Circle program. In 2025, Coyne was in the fight thanks to Rinus VeeKay. It was ninth in the opening race. VeeKay was fourth and pushing for a podium at Barber Motorsports Park. The Dutchman had a run of top ten finishes during the summer, and it hit a high at Toronto, when VeeKay led a good portion of the race before finishing second when he fell behind Patricio O'Ward during the final pit cycle. VeeKay was only 13th in the championship, but he was ahead of Alexander Rossi, Santino Ferrucci, Marcus Ericsson, Nolan Siegel and all three Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers, a good leap forward for a Dale Coyne Racing driver.

The Ford Mustang GT3's first season in IMSA was good. It wasn't great. There were some teething issues but there was some promise. That promise developed into success in the opening race of 2025. The #65 Ford of Christopher Mies, Denis Olsen and Frédéric Vervisch won the 24 Hours of Daytona. The #64 Ford of Sebastian Priaulx and Mike Rockenfeller would go on to win at Detroit and at Indianapolis. With three victories, Ford was tied with BMW for most GTD Pro victories.

Past Winners
2012: Esteban Guerrieri
2013: Marco Andretti
2014: Chaz Mostert
2015: Graham Rahal
2016: Simon Pagenaud
2017: DJR Team Penske
2018: Gary Paffett
2019: Cooper Webb
2020: Joan Mir
2021: Francesco Bagnaia
2022: Scott McLaughlin
2023: Jorge Martín
2024: McLaren

And that will do it. At the end of every year, the moment presents itself to ask if we saw this coming. Did this past year play out as we thought? Even when things occur as we predicted, I don't believe any of us can accurately predict all the little details well enough to say there were no surprises. There is always something that we could not script mostly because it is more detailed than we can even imagine. 

This year felt the same way. There are no surprises with an Álex Palou championship, a Lando Norris breakthrough, Marc Márquez returning to glory, and another unsatisfying end to the NASCAR season, but with how each played out, from the sheer dominance of Palou, the three-way fight for Norris, Márquez being miles clear of the competition, and the utter shock of the final laps from Phoenix, it leaves me stunned thinking about how 2025 played out. 

Let's hope 2026 plays out the same way. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. We will be looking forward to the upcoming New Year very shortly.  


Thursday, December 4, 2025

2025 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

Sports car season is over. Sports car season is about to begin. Most series are over and are settled into the offseason. One series is about to start.

We revisit our sports car predictions for 2025 as the 2025-26 Asian Le Mans Series is about to begin. Over December 13-14, ALMS has a pair of four-hour races from Sepang, and the Sepang 12 Hours is this weekend, but none of those events will change any of the results for the predictions we made for the year 2025. All of these are set. 

FIA World Endurance Championships
1. The pole-sitter will be classified in at least seven of eight races
Correct!

After the pole-sitter retired from three of eight races in 2024, this season saw the pole-sitter finish every race in the 2025. In fact, five times did the pole-sitter finish on the podium this season after the pole-sitter finished only five of eight races total in 2024. Last season, the pole-sitter had only two podium finishes with only one victory. In 2025, the WEC pole-sitter won three races.

2. At least two manufacturers that did not win in LMGT3 in 2024 do win in 2025
Correct!

We were halfway there through the first race of the season as the #33 TF Sport Corvette of Jonny Edgar, Daniel Juncadella and Ben Keating won in Qatar after Corvette went winless in 2024. It would take a minute, but Lexus took victory in São Paulo with the #87 Akkodis ASP Team and José María López, Clemens Scmid and Razvan Umbrarescu, making that two new winners among manufacturers. 

But we aren't done yet! At the next round at Austin, United Autosports took victory in the #95 McLaren with Sean Geleal, Darren Leung and Marino Sato. That's three new manufacturers!

To add to it, TF Sport won again at Fuji, but this time with the #81 Corvette, and the #87 Akkodis ASP Team Lexus won again at Bahrain. In the final four races of 2025, each LMGT3 race had a winner that was a manufacturer that did not win in 2024. 

Porsche won twice (Imola and Le Mans). Ferrari won once (Spa-Francorchamps). BMW and Aston Martin went winless in 2025 after each won a race in 2024.

3. Each Cadillac entry will get a podium finish
Correct!

And it happened in the same race as Hertz Team Jota Cadillac went 1-2 at the 6 Hours of São Paulo. The #12 Cadillac of Alex Lynn, Norman Nato and Will Stevens took the victory ahead of the #38 Cadillac of Earl Bamber, Sébastien Bourdais and Jenson Button.

Outside of those finishes, Cadillac didn't finish on the podium in any other race this season. Cadillac was looking good at the season opener at Qatar... and then the two cars collided under safety car and took each other out of contention for a podium. The #12 Cadillac was fourth at Le Mans. The #38 Cadillac had four finishes outside the top ten in 2025. 

4. There will be at least two overall winners with a driver winning in his home country
Incorrect!

It only happened once. Ferrari won at Imola, and Antonio Giovinazzi and Alessandro Pier Guidi were home winners in the #51 Ferrari. Outside of that, we did not see another home winner. 

There were no Qatari, Brazilian, American or Bahraini drivers that competed in Hypercars this season. 

At Spa-Francorchamps, the best finishing Belgian was Laurens Vanthoor in ninth. Frenchman Kévin Estre was second at Le Mans. Kamui Kobayashi was the top Japanese driver at Fuji, finishing seventh. 

Other than at Le Mans, this wasn't really close to happening a second time.

IMSA
5. The overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races at some point
Incorrect!

After going winless in 2024 and having a 12-race winless streak dating back to 2023, the pole-sitter did finally win an IMSA race in 2025. It took five races as the #93 Meyer Shank Racing Acura of Nick Yelloly and Renger van der Zande won at Detroit. However, it was not followed with another pole-sitter victory. 

The pole-sitter would not win again until Indianapolis when the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac of Jack Aitken, Earl Bamber and Frederik Vesti finished first. This was also the penultimate race of the season, which meant the winner at Petit Le Mans had to start on pole position for this prediction to be correct.

The #60 Meyer Shank Racing Acura won pole position, but the entry finished fifth in the race. 

6. At least three LMP2 races feature a class winner with a Formula One-experienced driver
Incorrect!

Daytona started with a Formula One-experienced driver winning. Initially, Sébastien Bourdais won with Tower Motorsports, but Tower was disqualified for excessive wear to the skid block underneath the car. However, another Formula One-experienced driver was elevated to the race victory. That was Paul di Resta with United Autosports.

It wasn't di Resta's only victory, as he won at Watkins Glen with United. However, those were the only victories this season for Formula One-experienced drivers won in LMP2.

Sébastien Bourdais came close to victory at Sebring as Tower Motorsports was second. Pietro Fittipaldi ran a full season with Pratt Miller Motorsports, but Fittipaldi's best finish in class was sixth. 

The only other past F1 driver to run in LMP2 in 2025 was Felipe Massa, who only ran at the 24 Hours of Daytona with Riley Motorsports. Massa was second.

7. The top three in the GTD Pro Endurance Cup championship will all be full-time entries
Correct!

The #48 Paul Miller Racing BMW won the Endurance Cup championship in GTD Pro with the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW finishing second in the Endurance Cup, and the #77 AO Racing Porsche was third. 

All three of those teams were full-time teams. The #48 BMW was fourth in the overall championship with the #77 Porsche in fifth while the #1 BMW finished seventh. All three cars won races in 2025. The #48 BMW won at Watkins Glen and Road Atlanta. AO Racing won Sebring and Laguna Seca. The #1 BMW won at Road America.

8. Renger van der Zande's winning streak ends at eight consecutive seasons
Incorrect!

Van der Zande and co-driver Nick Yelloly won at Detroit, from pole position as you may have heard, and van der Zande has now won an IMSA race in the premier class in nine consecutive seasons. 

Van der Zande has actually won a race in all 12 seasons since the Grand-Am/American Le Mans Series merger. In those first three seasons, van der Zande ran in the Prototype Challenge class, and he won a race in each of those years, including winning overall at Lime Rock Park in a Prototype Challenge/GT race in 2016. Van der Zande was the PC champion in 2016 with Alex Popow and Starworks Motorsport. 

The #93 Acura was fifth in the GTP championship with additional podium finishes at Sebring and Road America. Each of those were third-place finishes. The #93 Acura did win three consecutive pole positions over Detroit, Watkins Glen and Road America.

European Le Mans Series
9. At least two different Americans win a race
Correct... kind of

I don't like a class inside of a class. In ELMS, there is the LMP2 class, but there is also the LMP2 Pro-Am class. LMP2 entries with a bonze-rated driver are placed in the LMP2 Pro-Am class. It is essentially the same class, only one of the drivers is seen as more amateur than others in those entries. 

Based on the ELMS structure, three American drivers won in 2025. P.J. Hyett and Dane Cameron were co-drivers in the #99 AO by TF Oreca, and they won at Imola with Louis Delétraz. Boom! Prediction correct right there, but to add insurance, Rodrigo Sales won in LMP2 Pro-Am with TDS Racing.

In LMP2 Pro-Am, three American drivers won a race. In LMP2, LMP3 and LMGT3, there were no American winners.

10. LMGT3 will have different British drivers win in consecutive races
Incorrect!

There were no British winners in LMGT3 in 2025. Since 2021, only three times has a British driver to win in the GT class in ELMS. Duncan Cameron won at Monza in 2021 with Spirit of Race. Sam De Haan won at Imola in 2022 with Oman Racing with TF Sport. In 2024, Cameron won at Circuit Paul Ricard with Spirit of Race.

Other
11. The closest finish in an Intercontinental GT Challenge race will be greater than four seconds 
Incorrect!

This prediction was looking good. 

At the Bathurst 12 Hour, the #32 Team WRT BMW won over the #46 Team WRT BMW by 10.244 seconds. 

The Nürburgring 24 Hour is a bit of a mess because the #911 Manthey EMA Porsche was first on the road, but received a one-minute and 40-second penalty for causing a collision during the race. This elevated the #99 Rowe Racing BMW to first-place overall, and the listed margin of victory was 1:17.810. Even if we got based on the margin of victory on the road, the #911 Porsche was more than four seconds ahead of the #99 BMW.

Grasser Racing Team won the 24 Hours of Spa by 8.703 seconds over the Rutronik Racing Porsche. Team WRT won the Suzuka 1000 km by 13.647 seconds over Absolute Racing. 

What happened in the final IGTC race, the Indianapolis 8 Hour?

Team WRT won by 0.805 seconds over Mercedes-AMG Team GMR.

Yep. So close. At least Indianapolis was a good finish.

12. Ben Barnicoat will win a proper class on at least three different continents in at least two different championships
Incorrect!

This one hurts because Ben Barnicoat was hurt for most of 2025. After a mountain biking accident in the middle of March, Barnicoat was sidelined until June. 

Prior to that biking accident, Barnicoat had raced only once in IMSA and once in WEC. He had also raced in four Asian Le Mans Series races, and he won the first race from the Dubai Autodrome in the #96 2 Seas Motorsport Mercedes-AMG on February 8. 

That was Barnicoat's only victory of the season. In IMSA, he ran seven races but his best finish with Vasser Sullivan Racing was fifth at Indianapolis. In WEC, he ran four races, but his best finish was the first race of the season, fourth at Qatar. 

I don't know how much the cycling accident affected this prediction, but it certainly did not help. 

Five-for-12. 

It wasn't even a strong 5-for-12. One of those is correct on a technicality (Thanks LMP2 Pro-Am). There were a few close ones. It always feels like there are few close ones. I hate to think I have to take driver's training programs into consideration when making predictions, but it might be good to keep in mind moving forward. More drivers should be swimmers. 


Friday, August 29, 2025

Best of the Month: August 2025

I swear August was the fastest month yet. It could be down to the lack of racing. A few series were on holiday. They will be resuming shortly and we will get our busy period into autumn, but championships will soon be coming to an end. A notable one is ending this weekend. We are about to enter the final third of the year. Days are already getting shorter. It is a bittersweet time of the year.

Relief Drivers Should Get Credit
Parker Kligerman took the checkered flag last Friday night at Daytona International Speedway in NASCAR's second division. Kligerman took over the #88 Chevrolet from Connor Zilisch under the first caution as Zilisch is recovering from a fractured collarbone after he fell in victory lane a few weeks ago at Watkins Glen.   

In NASCAR national series history, it was the 20th time a winning entry featured a relief driver, but like the first 19 times, Kligerman's name will not show up in the record book. As has been the custom in NASCAR statistical gathering, all stats only count toward the starting driver. The starting driver could complete one lap, come in pit lane and have someone else relieve them for 199 laps. That relief driver could lead 195 laps, win the race, and the relief driver’s name will never be mentioned in the box score. The victory, the laps led, the glory go to the starting driver. 

It is time to reverse that practice and update the record book as so. 

Kligerman took to the track and faced the risks all drivers face on track. If he had been fatally injured in the race, people would say he was in the race, record book be damned. It would be disrespectful for the record books to omit such a thing. If you are racing, you should get credit, whether you started or not. 

Zilisch started and gets the points, but he didn't lead the final ten laps. He didn't make the passes and the blocks to win this race. He already didn't get the stage points and playoff points earned because Kligerman was in the car. They both can get credit for the victory, but Kligerman should get credit for what he did, and the same is true for every relief driver that came before him. 

Did you know Richard Petty twice drove winning entries as a relief driver and one of those was in place of David Pearson? Did you know Petty also had James Hylton drive in relief of him in an entry that won a race? Did you know A.J. Foyt finished first as a relief driver? Did you know there was a Cup race where the winning entry had not one but two relief drivers, and all three are among the most legendary names of NASCAR's two decades!? 

You probably didn't because the record book and box scores of the past do not acknowledge such things, and that is a shame. We are not getting a full representation of history. Did you know in Benny Parsons' 1973 championship season, the only race he won came with help from a relief driver? We are wrongly being denied the full story because of an archaic view of stats keeping. No one knows who John Utsman is, and his contributions very well won a driver his only championship. If it wasn't for Utsman's 170-plus laps of driving, Parsons might not have won at Bristol, and the championship very well could have gone to Cale Yarborough as only 67 points separated the two.

It might be retroactive, but it is right and it is best to give the full story of the races, and not neglect a part because it is easier to ignore it. 

Formula One acknowledges when multiple drivers won a race sharing an entry. IndyCar does, but not fully. IndyCar should do the same for the four Indianapolis 500s where the winning entry had a relief driver, but the relief driver did not finish the race. In the two occasions where the finishing driver was different from the starter, the record book acknowledges those. In 1924, L.L. Corum (starter) and Joe Boyer (finisher) are co-winners, and in 1941, Floyd Davis (starter) and Mauri Rose (finisher) are also co-winners. 

But the record book fails to accurately acknowledge Cyrus Patschke, who ran 32 laps in relief for Ray Harroun, but Harroun ran the final 98 laps in the inaugural Indianapolis 500 in 1911. The record book misses Don Herr running at least 37 laps in relief for eventual winner Joe Dawson the following year. 

Corum and Boyer should be sandwiched between two other sets of co-winners. In 1923, the 1919 Indianapolis 500 winner Howdy Wilcox ran 47 laps in relief for Tommy Milton. Milton returned to the car and ran the final 51 laps to the finish. Wilcox even led 41 laps in relief. In 1925, Peter DePaolo won the race, but Norman Batten ran 22 laps in the #12 Duesenberg. 

We are better served when we properly recognize all those who competed in the race. We can have starts and we can race participations in the record book. We acknowledge the winners and acknowledge who actually led the laps. 

It will change a few things. Would it feel odd that Richard Petty would have 202 NASCAR Cup Series victories instead of 200? Yeah. It makes the 1983 Miller High Life 500 from Charlotte Motor Speedway as his 200th win on paper, but we all remember what happened at the 1984 Firecracker 400. After all, Petty won that Charlotte race with an engine that exceeded the legal size. NASCAR let the win to stand. 

This doesn't have to change everything though. If you are giving relief drivers credit for the victories then what about points? Should those be split between the drivers? I think the status quo can remain, and the starting driver gets all the points. I don't think you need to split points. Drivers already compete in NASCAR events and are ineligible to score points based on what championship they declared. The rule can stay that the starting driver only receives points, but the relief driver gets credit for the laps led and the finishing position. 

We aren't changing history. We are properly acknowledging the history. It happened. People saw Richard Petty finish first. People saw Parker Kligerman win, and Denny Hamlin win after taking over from Aric Almirola at Milwaukee in 2007. It is wrong to tell people everything they saw never happened by ignoring it from the record books. 

A few numbers will change, but we will adjust. After all, NASCAR finally acknowledged a victory for Bobby Allison after over 53 years of saying it didn't count to the record book. If NASCAR can acknowledge that, it should be able to properly acknowledge relief drivers because they took to the racetrack and faced the risk just as every driver who started the race. 

We should celebrate that on August 2, 1959, Ned Jarrett started a race before having Junior Johnson stepped in for a relief spin and later Joe Weatherly got in the car. They should all have a victory count toward their names, not just Jarrett.

Along with Utsman, a driver who only started 14 Cup races, should get a victory for his contributions to Parsons' victory in July 1973, Friday Hassler should be acknowledged for helping Charlie Glotzbach win at Bristol in 1971, which was Glotzbach's final Cup Series victory. 

These tidbits should not be hidden on the surface only for a few minds to remember offhand. They should be explicit in the record book and easy for people to see and know. We should want everyone to know this stuff or at least easily find it. An accurate history only helps everyone tell the stories of the past and know what happened instead of letting things slip under the rug because for some reason we have decided it is easier to neglect what everyone saw. 

September Preview
As a child, one event of curiosity was the Suzuka 1000 km. If it wasn't for Gran Turismo, I wouldn't have known the race existed in all likelihood, but a video game gave it a stage, and it was understood as the biggest event in Super GT. The same way the United States has the Indianapolis 500 and Daytona 500 or France has the 24 Hours of Le Mans or Australia has the Bathurst 1000, this was seen as Japan's big race. 

Obviously, the distance of the Pacific Ocean and almost all of the continental United States put a lot of space between me and the event. The time zones didn't help. It wasn't broadcasted in the United States. It wasn't an option at a crazy hour of night, but you hear the stories and you appreciate what the race is. 

In 2017, the last Suzuka 1000 km was held as a part of the Super GT championship. Bertrand Baguette and Kosuke Matsuura won for Nakajima Racing. The race was replaced with a ten-hour event that counted toward the Intercontinental GT Challenge. It was different, and it took out the local flair of the event. It became another GT3 endurance race. It did well. Notable names entered, but when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the event was lost. For the last few years, things did not fall in place for Suzuka to return to the IGTC calendar. 

This year that has changed and the Suzuka 1000 km is back. A 173-lap race is scheduled for Sunday September 14. It will be the fourth round of the 2025 IGTC season. The Indianapolis 8 Hour closes out the five-round championship the following month. 

This return is bringing out a banner collection of drivers. 

Kamui Kobayashi will be in the #00 Merecdes-AMG GT3 with Super GT GT300 champions Tatsuya Kataoka and Nobuteru Taniguchi.

Johor Motorsports JMR will enter the #2 Corvette for Nicky Catsburg, Scott McLaughlin and Alexander Sims. 

Porsche has four cars in the Pro class. Among its drivers competing are Laurin Heinrich, Alessio Picariello, Kévin Estre, Patrick Pilet, Laurens Vanthoor, Klaus Bachler and Sven Müller. 

BMW has entered two cars with Team WRT that feature Augusto Farfus, Dan Harper, Max Hesse, Raffaele Marciello, Kelvin van der Linde and Charles Weerts. 

Honda's latest projected star, Kakunoshin Ohta, is ironically competing in a Mercedes-AMG with Team Craft-Bamboo Racing, but his co-drivers are Maximilian Götz and Ralf Aron. Maxine Martin, Luca Stolz and Mikaël Grenier are in the other Craft-Bamboo Pro entry. 

And that is just the Pro class.

Heart of Racing Team has Ian James, Alex Riberas and Zacharie Robichon in a Bronze class Mercedes-AMG. Richard Lietez will be in the Bronze class driving a Porsche. American Neil Verhagen is also competing in the Bronze class in a BMW.

Ben Barnicoat will lead Craft-Bamboo's Pro-Am Mercedes-AMG. Giancarlo Fisichella will also be in the Pro-Am class in the LM Corsa Ferrari.

It is a pretty impressive list of drivers for this race, and I think it is good that such an event is returning. It isn't the specialty of the Super GT calendar, but it is nice that marquee event is back. 

Other events of note in September
The NASCAR playoffs begin.
Formula One resumes. 
The FIA World Endurance Championship will hold two rounds as that season will end quickly. 
IMSA has its race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
MotoGP will head to Asia. 


Friday, December 27, 2024

2025 Sports Car Predictions

We will end this week looking into the sports car world as we have 2025 coming more into focus with each passing second. For the sports car world, competition comes quickly after the calendar flips. It does not take look for us to get into big endurance races from all across the globe. There always seems to be something new in sports car racing, and that will be the case again with the introduction of the Aston Martin Valkyrie program. Aston Martin aside, there are plenty of things to watch across a variety of categories.

FIA World Endurance Championships
1. The pole-sitter will be classified in at least seven of eight races
The fastest qualifier is usually a good car. It might not win all the time, but it is good. It is expected to be competitive. You are more likely to win from pole position than from last place, even in WEC's Hypercar class, which does not feature the greatest number of entries.

However, in 2024, the pole-sitter failed to finish in three of eight WEC races. Because WEC isn't the longest season, three retirements is quite a lot. I think there will be a correction in 2025. We are not going to see the pole-sitter fail to be running as often as we did this past season. 

I will leave the door open that in at least one race the pole-sitter falls out of a race, but not more than that.

2. At least two manufacturers that did not win in LMGT3 in 2024 do win in 2025
The first year with GT3 cars in WEC was rather successful. Four manufacturers were victorious. It should be noted that rather coincidentally that all four winners were past participants in WEC's GTE class. Not sure if there is any correlation but it is a note. 

While four manufacturers won, five did not. Lamborghini, McLaren, Chevrolet, Ford and Lexus all went winless. Lamborghini will not be back, but Mercedes-AMG enters the championship in its place. Those five other manufacturers combined for five podium finishes. Only one of those was a runner-up result. 

At least two new manufacturers win in 2025. TF Sport's Corvettes went second and third in the Bahrain finale. Mercedes-AMG has yet to find a GT3 series it does not win in. Lexus should be competitive. McLaren will have a good shot at a win. Things will change this season.

3. Each Cadillac entry will get a podium finish
In its final season with Chip Ganassi Racing running the program, Cadillac’s best finish was a fourth in Austin. With Team Jota taking over, Cadillac will have two entries in the world championship. The #12 Cadillac V-Series.R will have Sébastien Bourdais, Alex Lynn and Jenson Button behind the wheel. Earl Bamber, Norman Nato and Will Stevens will drive the #38 Cadillac.

Team Jota won at Spa-Francorchamps with the Porsche 963, and the #12 entry was the sixth-best in the championship. 

Cadillac had a good 2023 season in WEC. Its one entry was fifth in the championship. Last year, Cadillac scored 42 points over the eight races, though it won pole position in Fuji. In IMSA, Cadillac has been able to win endurance races and a championship. That success has not translated to WEC yet.

It might not be a championship, but Cadillac should be a little more competitive and it will have two capable entries to get results. Both will shine at times in 2025.

4. There will be at least two overall winners with a driver winning in his home country
Last year, no WEC race featured a victorious native-son overall. The previous two seasons had seen home country winners. Both of those were at Fuji with Ryō Hirakawa in 2022 and Kamui Kobayashi in 2023. Fun fact, the last three home country winners have not been European. Gustavo Menezes won with Rebellion Racing at Austin in 2020. The last European driver to win a race at home was Mike Conway with Toyota in the season opener for the 2019-20 super season at Silverstone. 

While there are eight races on the 2025 WEC calendar, only four will likely feature a natives in the Hypercar class. We are not going to see a Qatari nor a Bahraini. There is a good chance there will not be an American nor a Brazilian either. I like the chances at the other four races.

One, Toyota is going to be competitive at Fuji. Ferrari is a good option to win at Imola. Porsche has two French drivers, one in each of its entries and Porsche has this things with winning at Le Mans. That is also without taking into consideration the two French drivers at Cadillac, four French drivers at Alpine and at least one with possibly more French drivers at Peugeot. Of the 18 full-time Hypercar entries, at least seven will have a French driver. The Vanthoor brothers represent Belgium in the top class and it just so happens there is a race at Spa-Francorchamps.

We had no home winners in 2024. We will see at least two in 2025.

IMSA
5. The overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races at some point
Entering 2025, IMSA has not had a winner from pole position in GTP in 12 consecutive races. The most recent victory was with Meyer Shank Racing at Mosport in 2023. Earlier in 2023 was the most recent time IMSA saw consecutive races won from pole position. That was with Meyer Shank Racing with its illegal tire pressures at Daytona and then with Whelen Racing at Sebring. 

A year after no winners from pole position, IMSA will have one occasions where the overall pole-sitter will win consecutive races.

6. At least three LMP2 races feature a class winner with a Formula One-experienced driver
The LMP2 class will feature a stout collection of drivers in 2025. With a few driver changes and manufacturer alliances changing in the GTP class, LMP2 is much stronger on the professional front, especially with drivers with Formula One experience.

Sébastien Bourdais moves to LMP2 with the Cadillac program leaving Chip Ganassi Racing for Wayne Taylor Racing. Bourdais will be with Tower Motorsports. Pietro Fittipaldi is driving for Pratt Miller Motorsports as the PMM joins LMP2. Fittipaldi made two Formula One starts in 2020. Paul di Resta will be back with United Autosports. Felipe Massa will be back for the 24 Hours of Daytona with Riley Motorsports.

LMP2 will be a sneaky good class and we will see top drivers lead teams to victories. There will be a spell where we see those with history on the grand prix grid.

7. The top three in the GTD Pro Endurance Cup championship will all be full-time entries
In 2024, the top three entries in GTD Pro in the Endurance Cup were the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW (43 points), the #62 Risi Competizione Ferrari (41 points) and the #19 Iron Lynx Lamborghini (39 points). Risi and Iron Lynx were Endurance Cup-only teams. Risi won the 24 Hours of Daytona and Iron Lynx won at Petit Le Mans.

In 2025, GTD Pro will see the top three in the Endurance Cup all be full-time entries, not a complete reverse from this past season, but a big change nonetheless. There are plenty of capable full-time teams in GTD Pro. They will be tough to beat in the endurance races. The endurance-only teams will hold their own, but they will not be as strong as they were in 2024.

8. Renger van der Zande's winning streak ends at eight consecutive seasons
Perhaps this should not be as big of a surprise, but van der Zande has won an IMSA race overall in eight consecutive seasons. He has also won in 11 consecutive seasons after winning in the Prototype Challenge for three consecutive years. 

As harsh as its sounds, I think van der Zande comes up short in 2025. After seven seasons with Cadillac, van der Zande moves to Acura with Meyer Shank Racing. We know MSR is a capable team and it knows the Acura ARX-06, but this is MSR returning after a year away and it is now a two-car team. The #93 Acura, van der Zande's car, is effectively the new team. Nick Yelloly joins from BMW to round out the program.

This does not feel as strong of an entry as we have seen van der Zande in over the last few seasons. It will be tough for it to be the top Acura let alone the best GTP car period. GTP is a tough class, and we just saw the #31 Whelen Racing Cadillac go winless in 2024 with Pipo Derani and Jack Aitken. If Derani can go winless in a season, van der Zande can go winless in a season. 

All good things must come to an end, and I think we will see something not seen since 2016.

European Le Mans Series
9. At least two different Americans win a race
American drivers combined to win zero races in ELMS last season. For 2025, there are already six Americans confirmed for ELMS participation. 

In LMP2, Logan Sargeant will be with IDEC Sport. Rodrigo Sales and P.J. Hyett will each be in pro-am LMP2 entries with TDS Racing and AO by TF respectively. Wyatt Brichacek is going to be in LMP3 with DKR Engineering. Gustavo Menezes will return to full-time competition with an Iron Lynx Mercedes-AMG in LMGT3. Scott Noble will drive a Ferrari for JMW Motorsport. 

The numbers are there. Sargeant is the favorite. It will be tough for Sales and Hyett to win overall as a pro-am in LMP2, but it is not out of the question. Menezes is making a change to GT racing after years in prototypes. However, I think we will see more American winners.

10. LMGT3 will have different British drivers win in consecutive races
Duncan Cameron won at Circuit Paul Ricard with Spirit of Race Ferrari in the LMGT3 class. It was the only victory for a British driver in the LMGT3 class. 

ELMS has not had British winners in consecutive races in the GT class since the first two races of the 2018 season. Liam Griffin and Alex MacDowall won at Circuit Paul Ricard. Cameron then won at Monza.

Cameron will be back in LMGT3 in 2025, but ELMS' GT class, but there will be a few other Brits in the class. Ben Tuck and Andrew Gilbert will each be in a Kessel Racing entry. Michael Wainwright is set for a  ride with GR Racing. There are also a number of open seats that could be occupied by British drivers. If Cameron wins in 2025, he will not be the only one and there will be another Brit not too far behind.

Other
11. The closest finish in an Intercontinental GT Challenge race will be greater than four seconds 
IGTC does have a knack for close races. 

The Nürburgring 24 Hour was decided by 0.603 seconds, and that wasn't even the closest race in the 2024 IGTC season! The Indianapolis 8 Hours saw Team WRT BMW win by 0.260 seconds over the Wright Motorsports Porsche. Even the Bathurst 12 Hour was decided by just over 2.6 seconds. 

After a year of close finishes, we are going to see a year for fewer close finishes. Four seconds is close, but that will be the closest it gets in 2025. 

The upcoming IGTC season will see the return of the Suzuka 1000km. There will be one more chance for a close finish, but I don't think they will be as close as we saw in 2024.

12. Ben Barnicoat will win a proper class on at least three different continents in at least two different championships
Barnicoat is a bit of an under-appreciated driver, but he has been rather successful with the Lexus program  in IMSA. For 2025, we will see Barnicoat move to Lexus' WEC program with Akkodis ASP Team.

It is not clear how much Barnicoat will run in IMSA, but he has won seven races in three full seasons in IMSA. He could lead Lexus to WEC glory to the surprise of no one. Whether or not Barnicoat is full-time in both championships or an endurance driver in IMSA, he is going to be competing in multiple series, and I believe he will be winning in multiple series as well in multiple corners of the globe.

We are beyond halfway in our 2025 predictions. With Formula One and NASCAR also in the bag, we will have some two-wheel predictions come Monday.