For the first time since Pocono and Toronto, IndyCar runs back-to-back weeks with the series heading to the streets of Baltimore after a chaotic race at Sonoma. Will Power heads to Baltimore looking for his second win of the season and second on the streets of Baltimore. Ryan Hunter-Reay looks to go back-to-back at Baltimore and, just like last year, keep his championship hopes alive. After Sonoma, Helio Castroneves leads Scott Dixon by thirty-nine points with Hunter-Reay sixty-two back and Marco Andretti seventy back.
The Championship
After being penalized at Sonoma for contact with pit equipment, Scott Dixon saw a singe digit deficit more than quadruple as he went from the lead to fifteenth. Helio Castroneves held on for a top ten and only lost a handful of points to Ryan Hunter-Reay at Sonoma. The Brazilian is looking to win his first career championship. Scott Dixon meanwhile has to make up an average of 9.75 points to take the championship away for Castroneves and take it away from Penske Racing after being behind for the fifth consecutive year.
For the second consecutive year, Ryan Hunter-Reay sees himself trailing entering Baltimore. Last year, Hunter-Reay entered Baltimore thirty-six back of Will Power in what was the penultimate round of the championship. After qualifying in tenth, Hunter-Reay went on a charge to the front and with a key decision not to take wet weather tires when most the field did, Hunter-Reay stayed up front while Power had to fight from the back. A key pass for the lead on the the penultimate restart by Ryan Briscoe got the American ten more points and put him only seventeen back of Power heading into the season finale.
And then their is Marco Andretti. While Andretti has never been this high in the championship standings this late in the year, he has had a career year on road and street courses. In ten road and street course races to date, Andretti has nine top tens, five of which are top fives and two podiums. To add to Andretti chances for the championship, last year, Andretti won pole at Fontana and finished eighth after having to serve a drive through penalty while in the top five.
The Debutant and the Returnees, Week II
For the third consecutive week, IndyCar will see a new face on the grid with some familiar faces also returning. Stefan Wilson, younger brother of Justin Wilson, will make his debut as teammate to his older brother at Dale Coyne Racing driving the #18 Nirvana Tea Honda. The Englishman is a race winner in the Indy Lights series. He won two races in 2011 while driving for Andretti Autosport. In his only Lights start at Baltimore, Wilson finished fifth.
Luca Filippi and Oriol Servià return to the grid this weekend. Filippi made his first career start at Mid-Ohio a month ago and his back for what will be three consecutive races for the Italian as he will also drive for Barracuda Racing at Houston in a month. Servià returns for the first time since Mid-Ohio as well and he will run the remainder of the races for Panther Racing as Ryan Briscoe has a conflicting schedule for the rest of the season. Servià has a second and seventh in two starts at Baltimore.
Chasing a Record
While the Grand Prix of Baltimore should be Tony Kanaan's record breaking 212th consecutive start, the record for most different winners in an American open-wheel racing season could also be set in 2013 as well. With ten winners through fifteen races, the series is looking to break the record of eleven different winners set in the 2000 CART season and matched the following year by CART.
With four races to go, two winners will set the record and their are plenty of drivers capable of getting a win in 2013. Dario Franchitti is sixth in points, one behind Simon Pagenaud for fifth and has finished third in four of the last five races. The Scotsman has yet to win in 2013 and has won in every season since he returned to IndyCar in 2009. While Franchitti doesn't have a win a Baltimore, he did win the inaugural Grand Prix of Houston in 1998, won at Fontana in 2005 and finished second at Fontana last year after being passed by Ed Carpenter on the final lap. Speaking of Carpenter, while it would be a tremendous upset if he were to win at either Baltimore or Houston, he cannot be ruled out for the season finale at Fontana based off a track record two top fives, four top tens and a pole in the five oval races in 2013 and the fact he's the defending Fontana winner. Not to forget mentioning Carpenter has won the season finale the passed two season.
Justin Wilson is seventh in points and has three podiums this season, all on road and street courses including second at Sonoma last Sunday. He has three top tens on ovals including a fifth at Indianapolis and a seventh at Pocono. Wilson has an oval winner to his credit at Texas last year and the Englishman cannot be ruled out in any of the remaining four races this year. Marco Andretti has yet to win in 2013 and while most would pencil Fontana as his only real shot, Andretti's track record on road and street courses begs to differ. He has two podiums, four top fives and nine top tens in the ten road and street courses to date. Andretti's oval record is just as impressive, two top fives, four top tens and two poles in five oval races, making him just as likely a favorite to win in any of the four remaining race as Franchitti and Wilson are.
Other drivers capable of winning this year include Sébastien Bourdais. While he has never raced at Fontana, the Frenchman has started both Baltimore races and started fifth and third for each race respectively before having a mechanical failure end his day in each race. Bourdais has won his two and only starts at Houston in 2006 and 2007.
Other than the five drivers above, it's hard to see any other likely candidates to pick up a win. Graham Rahal has raced well at Baltimore and finished second in his only Houston start but has been inconsistent all year, although he has a podium in 2013 and last week at Sonoma was his best race weekend, from rolling off the truck Friday to the checkers Sunday, by far this season. The highest driver in the points without a win that has yet to be listed is EJ Viso who is twelfth in points. The Venezuelan's only podium came at Iowa in 2010 and while he has curbed his tendency to be an accident waiting to happen, he has yet to be fighting for wins. He does have two top fives and six top tens in 2013, both either most in a season or tying most in a season for Viso, but he has yet to put together a race weekend were he's a clear front runner. In two Baltimore starts, Viso has finished fifteenth and ninth, he has yet to start at Houston and last year at Fontana Viso finished twenty-fifth and was struggling to drive the car all weekend.
While Josef Newgarden nearly won São Paulo and has two top fives and top tens this season, the Tennessee native has fallen flat ever since Pocono, finishing twenty-third or worse in three of the last four races. Simona de Silvestro has five top tens in 2013 but other than St. Petersburg she hasn't been at the front of the pack for any other race. After her, Oriol Servià and James Jakes are the only other drivers with multiple top tens in 2013 but Servià is driving for Panther Racing, who has only one top ten since firing JR Hildebrand and that was Servià at Iowa and Panther Racing has not won since Texas in 2005 when Tomas Scheckter was their driver not to forget mentioning the team has never won a road or street course race in IndyCar. Jakes' two top tens both came at Belle Isle, a tenth in race one and a second in race two. Other than that flash in the pan, Jakes has yet to have another serious look at a win in 2013.
Tristan Vautier is highly unlikely seeing as the Frenchman has one top ten in 2013 and the last driver to win a race in their first season in American open-wheel racing was Robert Doornbos in 2007 driving for Minardi Team USA. Sebastián Saavedra only has one top ten in 2013, JR Hildebrand is a one off at Fontana and while he led the second most laps in that race last year, I wouldn't put him as a favorite. Pippa Mann has yet to get a top ten in her IndyCar career. I wouldn't call her a favorite for Fontana either. Luca Filippi is making his second career start this weekend and if he shows the speed he had at Mid-Ohio in the next three races, who knows? He could sneak out a win. AJ Allmendinger is set to return for Fontana and while he did have a great Indianapolis 500 and could have been only a loose seatbelt away from winning, his next best finish in 2013 was nineteenth at Barber.
Baltimore Track Record
Last year, Will Power set the track record, setting a lap of 1:17.5921 seconds.
Will Power and Ryan Hunter-Reay have won the two previous Grand Prix of Baltimore. They started on pole and tenth respectively. Power finished sixth in 2012 while Hunter-Reay finished eighth in 2011. Helio Castroneves' two finishes at Baltimore have been seventeenth and tenth. Scott Dixon has finished fifth and fourth at Baltimore while Marco Andretti has finished twenty-fifth and fourteenth. Of the six podium finishers in the two Baltimore races, only one started in the top five, that was Power winning in 2011 and three have started outside the top ten.
This year is the first time there will be a race on September 1st since 1996 when Michael Andretti won at Vancouver. Michael Andretti also won on September 1st at Vancouver in 1991.
Simona de Silvestro looks to become the tenth driver and first woman to win an American open-wheel race on their birthday. She would join the following drivers to accomplish such a feat:
Dario Resta: August 19, 1916. Turned thirty-four years old and won at Chicago's Speedway Park.
Joe Boyer: May 30, 1924. Turned thirty-five years old and won the Indianapolis 500, splitting the ride with L.L. Corum.
Lou Moore: September 12, 1931. Turned twenty-seven and won at Syracuse.
Tony Bettenhausen: September 12, 1953. Turned thirty-seven years old and won at Syracuse.
Al Unser: May 29, 1971. Turned thirty-two years old and won the Indianapolis 500.
Nigel Mansell: August 8, 1993. Turned forty years old and won at New Hampshire.
Sam Hornish, Jr.: July 2, 2006. Turned twenty-seven years old and won at Kansas Speedway.
Scott Dixon: July 22, 2007. Turned twenty-seven years old and won at Mid-Ohio.
Dan Wheldon: June 22, 2008. Turned thirty years old and won at Iowa.
Indy Lights
Indy Lights returns to the track after a month off. Carlos Muñoz leads fellow Colombian Gabby Chaves by fifteen points and his Andretti Autosport teammate Sage Karam by sixteen points. Forty points back of Muñoz is Jack Hawksworth with Peter Dempsey fifth, forty-three points back.
Eleven cars will be on the grid this weekend. Venezuelan Giancarlo Serenelli and Canadian Matthew Di Leo return while Canadian Dalton Kellett will make his Indy Lights debut. Kellett has been competing in U.S. F2000 the past two seasons and he made his Pro Mazda debut earlier this year at Mosport. Kellett is currently fifteenth in U.S. F2000 points with his best finish being a sixth at Mid-Ohio.
Prediction
With this being the third Grand Prix of Baltimore, it is still wide open as to who could pick up the victory. While Penske Racing is coming off a win and Ganassi Racing has been on a tear since Pocono, it would be easy to pick the winner to come from either those teams and the winner very well could. Andretti Autosport has been fast every race weekend but now have to turn that speed into results. The last two races at Mid-Ohio Sonoma, Ryan Hunter-Reay and his team made a poor decision to go off pit strategy and had to fight from behind in each only to finish fifth and sixth. If he wants to win a second consecutive championship not only does he have to prevent this from happening up he has to win and make up handfuls of points at each race.
I feel this is Marco Andretti's weekend. But I have picked him four times in 2013 and have come up with naught each time. Give me Ryan Hunter-Reay this weekend. Scott Dixon will find a way onto the podium and Tony Kanaan will be on that third step. Dario Franchitti and Luca Filippi will be up front. Helio Castroneves hasn't put a wheel wrong all season, why would you expect him to put one wrong now? But Will Power will finish ahead of his teammate. Takuma Sato will continue to struggle and Stefan Wilson will get a top fifteen on debut but won't finish ahead of his older brother. Sleepers: Luca Filippi and Oriol Servià.
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