The motorcycle world always has something exciting it brings to the table, whether it be on pavement or on dirt, on famed circuits or in highly modern stadiums. More exciting things are to come in multiple championships across multiple disciplines. Champions are changing teams, some are changing while being title-holders. Thrilling rookies are going to step up to the highest levels and will be poised to make their first steps toward greatness. There is plenty to watch in 2024.
MotoGP
1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix
One of the most notable occurrences from the 2023 MotoGP season was the lack of a consecutive race winner. It was the first time no rider won consecutive races in the top class since the inaugural season of the world championship in 1949, which only had six races.
If it was the first time something has happened in 74 years, it likely will not happen a second consecutive year, but once is not going to be good enough to fulfill this prediction. We aren't going to have just one instance of a rider winning consecutive races. We are going to have at least three occasions when it happens. There are enough talented riders for it to happen. We could have it happen ten times in 2024 and no on would be surprised.
2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship
I know last year I said Márquez would finish in the top five of the championship, and we all know how that played out. But this year has to be different, right? Right?
Gone from Honda, onto Ducati, even if it is a year-old bike which just so happens to have just won the world championship, Márquez starts a pivotal second act in his career. The machine is no longer the question mark. It is down to Márquez. Does he still have it and can he keep himself from going over the edge? If he is seeing the checkered flag you must believe he will get results, but it will not be easy.
Francesco Bagnaia is not going anywhere. Jorge Martín put up a championship push and found success in the sprint races. Marco Bezzecchi looked ready for a title fight for the first half of the season. Fabio Di Giannantonio was coming on strong at the end of 2023. Ducati will have Enea Bastiannini looking for a mulligan after injuries last season, and Franco Morbidelli, another rider looking to revive his career.
Márquez could have a great season and still not be the best Ducati rider. In that case, he could still be in the top three or five of the championship. Moving to Ducati will to see a repeat of 2013 or 2019, but it should make Márquez a factor again.
3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified
It felt like the 2023 season saw many days of high attrition. Some (Fabio Quartararo) believed that was down to the sprint races and the increase in competition. Those beliefs might be true.
Last season, there were six grand prix where riders were unclassified in points-paying positions at the end of grand prix and earned no reward for their Sunday efforts. That was over a quarter of the races in 2023. The fewest classified runners was 13.
However, we will see a complete reverse in 2024. Twenty-two grand prix, 330 points-paying positions accounted for. Mark it here.
4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019
Acosta won the Moto3 championship as a rookie at 18 years old and he won the Moto2 championship in his second season in the competition at 20 years old. He turns 21 during the 2024 season, which will be his rookie MotoGP campaign riding for KTM for GasGas Tech3.
KTM had a good season in 2023. Brad Binder had great consistency while Jack Miller had flashes and accidents that canceled out his better performances. GasGas Tech3 was the worst team in the championship though Augusto Fernández did have a fourth at the French Grand Prix.
Tech3 hasn't finished better than 11th in the teams' championship the last three years, but it is bound to get off the mat, and Acosta will help. Not only do I think Acosta will help, but I think he will have some rather remarkable results. He isn't going to win the championship, even a grand prix victory feels like a stretch, but scoring points is something he should do.
In the previous four seasons, the best rookie finisher in those seasons have been 11th, ninth, 14th and 17th. For this prediction to be correct, Acosta would have to finish eighth. It is asking a lot, but don't be surprised if it happens.
5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season
This has been a low point for Honda and Yamaha in MotoGP. Honda lost arguably its greatest rider. Yamaha's current best rider is looking for a way out. The two manufacturers' combined for one victory in 2023. Yamaha was fourth and Honda was fifth in the manufacturers' championship. The best of their six full-time riders ended up tenth in the riders' championship.
It was dismal.
It must get better.
MotoGP cannot really afford for it to be much worse.
How does an optimist look at it?
In 2023, Honda and Yamaha combined for five podium finishes. Five podium finishes is nothing! In 2024, these two makes will have at least six podium finishes in the first 11 races. It will be a heartwarming story of the season.
6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second
While it feels like MotoGP and Moto3 (definitely Moto3), frequently have grandstand finishes and we need the cameras to determine the winners, Moto2 does not have as many of those finishes. Sometimes, Moto2 is a good reset between a Moto3 and a MotoGP event. It lowers the bar for MotoGP so the main event isn't following two hair-raisers. However, it does make Moto2 the literal middle child.
Last season, only four Moto2 races were decided by less than a second. Moto2 has not had a finish decided by less than a tenth of a second since the 2022 British Grand Prix, 29 races ago. That will change in 2024. At least one race goes to the wire that keeps everyone holding their breath through the checkered flag.
7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races
Leopard Racing has been one of the best teams in Moto3. It has won four of the last nine Moto3 championships and it has put a rider in the top five of the championship in eight of the last nine seasons. It is also known for winning races.
In six of the last nine seasons, Leopard Racing has won at least four races in a season. You might be thinking that this prediction is a slam dunk then. However, Leopard has an entirely new lineup. Jaume Masiá is moving to Moto2 after winning the 2023 Moto3 title. Tatsuki Suzuki suffered an injury and left the team midseason in 2023.
Entering the team will be Adrián Fernández, who did run six races in replacement for Suzuki, and Ángel Piqueras, who won the FIM JuniorGP World Championship and the Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup championship in 2023.
It is an unproven team, but there should be some encouragement and Leopard Racing finds it way on top.
8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium
Last year in MotoE, there were three races that had all-Italian podiums.
The first Mugello race (Andrea Mantovani, Matteo Ferrari and Mattia Casadei).
The second Austria race (Casadei, Ferrari and Kevin Zannoni).
The second Barcelona race (Casadei, Mantovani and Nicholas Spinelli).
Italy was the only country to have a podium sweep in 2023.
What happens in 2024?
Spain will have a podium sweep of its own.
At time of writing, 12 of 14 announced riders for the 2024 MotoE season are either Italian or Spanish, eight to four respectively.
Spain has never swept a MotoE podium. That will change in 2024.
World Superbike
9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.
Rea is changing outfits for 2024. Off is the Kawasaki green, on is the Yamaha blue as Rea will be riding something other than a Kawasaki for the first time since he competed with Honda in the 2014 season.
Rea and Kawasaki lost their stranglehold on World Superbike in the last few seasons, but they still remained a clear number three in the championship. He only won one race, but he was on the podium in 18 of 36 races this past season.
Yamaha won seven times in 2023, all with Toprak Razgatlioglu, who will leave Yamaha for BMW in 2024. Razgatlioglu had 20 runner-up finishes last year. Rea had five runner-up finishes. That means of Rea's 18 podium finishes, 12 were third-place finishes.
Álvaro Bautista will still be on a Ducati. Good luck to everyone. With Razgatlioglu moving away from Yamaha and Rea joining the team, it will not be as simple as Rea simply replicating Razgatlioglu's results, but Rea should have more races challenging Bautista or at least being the clear second-place rider.
A dozen times finishing in any one position is quite something. Rea will have his share of third-place finishes, but I don't think they will be greater than his number of victories or second-place finishes.
10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024
Here is the list of riders to win consecutive races in the 2023 World Superbike season:
Álvaro Bautista
Toprak Razgatlioglu
That's it. That is the list.
Bautista had four instances of winning consecutive races: The first four races of the season, ten races from the second Indonesia race through the first race at Donington Park, race two from Donington Park and the first Imola race, and Bautista won the final eight races to close out the season.
Razgatlioglu won the SuperPole race and race two from Imola, and he won race one and the SuperPole race from Many-Cours.
The obvious difference will be Jonathan Rea winning consecutive races at least once now that he is on a Yamaha. Where does the other rider come from?
Bautista cannot keep hogging all the victories for Ducati, and perhaps the 2023 World Supersport champion Nicolò Bulega can have a sensational weekend. Michael Ruben Rinaldi, the only other winner from 2023, is still on a Ducati.
Andrea Locatelli will be Rea's teammate at Yamaha. While Razgatlioglu's exit should open up chances for Rea, it will also create opportunities for Locatelli, who continues to search for his first career World Superbike victory.
If BMW hits on something, maybe Michael van der Mark also benefits and gets some victories for himself. It could be a surprise, like Andrea Iannone, who returns to competition after serving a four-year ban for doping on a customer Ducati.
Let's see how it plays out.
Supercross/Motocross
11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds
Lawrence's 2023 season will be remembered for a 250cc West Supercross championship, a perfect 450cc Motocross championship and winning the inaugural 450cc SuperMotocross championship. This has all the makings of the start of a promising career.
However, even the greatest careers see some rough patches, and for how easy Lawrence made it look in 2023, he is going to face stout competition and have some tussles on his hands this season.
There should be a healthy Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton has moved to KTM, Cooper Webb is back on a Yamaha, Ken Roczen is still around, Jason Anderson is still around, Justin Barcia is good for a victory a season, Malcolm Stewart is still looking for his first Supercross victory, oh, and Jett's brother Hunter Lawrence will be his teammate at Honda.
Jett Lawrence has not had a losing streak of five consecutive rounds since a six-race stretch during the 2021 250cc Motocross season. This prediction is counting all rounds across the Supercross, Motocross and SuperMotocross seasons, but if Lawrence is missing any extended period of time due to injuries I will not count those.
There is a good chance Lawrence is still going to have great seasons and win multiple championships, but competition is going to be high.
12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds
Speaking to the depth of Supercross, there are at least a dozen riders you can envision winning around this season. They aren't all going to win races, but it feels like at least six riders are going to win a race. When looking over recent Supercross seasons, the top three riders in the championship typically have the lion's share of the race victories.
That shouldn't be a surprise. If I went back through every Supercross season that would likely be the case, but something caught my eye.
The last time riders that finished outside the top three in the championship combined for at least four victories was 2015. Ken Roczen won two of the first three races and then was knocked out after nine races due to an ankle injury. Trey Canard won twice and then was knocked out after suffering a broken arm in the 12th round in Detroit. Chad Reed also won that year at Atlanta and finished fourth in the championship after being disqualified from the second Anaheim event and withdrawing from the Meadowlands round prior to the heat races.
Unfortunately, injury is one of the ways this prediction becomes true, but let's be optimistic and we see one of the most competitive Supercross seasons to date where seven riders win a race, three of which are surprises after running just outside the top five for much of the season and then fourth wins twice but somebody has to finish fourth and he just isn't good enough to crack the top three. That would be five victories right there.
It feels practical for 2024.
And then there was one set of predictions remaining. NASCAR, Formula One, sport cars and now motorcycles are complete. We end the year as we always do with IndyCar.
