We are here for the final post of the year, and as has been the tradition, we end with IndyCar predictions. Coming off a championship that saw five drivers alive for the title in the final race of the season, and history made in multiple categories, IndyCar is set for more growth in 2023. The full-time grid will well exceed two-dozen cars and will be closer to 30 full-time entries than 20.
There is plenty to be excited about. Drivers are moving around. More records are on the verge of being broken and there is a healthy balance between veterans and young drivers carrying the series. But what will happen in 2023? Let's keep an eye on for the following.
1. Team Penske will lead fewer than 1,000 laps
The 2022 season was a dominant display from Team Penske, otherwise known as business as usual in IndyCar circles.
Will Power claimed his second championship off the back of one victory but nine podium finishes and 12 top five finishes.
Josef Newgarden led IndyCar with five victories and was second in the championship. Scott McLaughlin won three times with seven podium finishes and ended up fourth in the championship.
The Penske drivers went 1-2-3 in laps led. Newgarden led 527 laps, McLaughlin led 433 laps and Power led 335 times. No other driver led more than 200 laps.
Combined, Team Penske led 1,295 laps in 2022.
Why do I think Penske will led at least 296 fewer laps in 2023?
Arrow McLaren looks stronger. Chip Ganassi Racing had a good 2022 season, but it has room for growth. If Andretti Autosport can gets its head straight it could make a significant step forward.
We also have to realize there is a world where Newgarden, McLaughlin and Power all each 100 fewer laps than they did this year but would still be 1-2-3 in laps led and have only led a combined 995 laps. There is a world where Penske still dominates but doesn't hit 1,000 laps led.
2. At least five teams win a race
For a while, IndyCar had a period where it felt like every team was winning races. It wasn't uncommon for five or six teams to win in a single season. In 2018, every Honda team won a race plus Team Penske. In 2021, six teams won a race. Ten different drivers won in the 2017 season. The 2014 season had 11 different drivers win a race. Last year had only eight winners, not a low number, but not an overwhelming number. Only four teams won a race.
However, look at Team Penske's three drivers. Look at the three drivers McLaren has assembled. Ganassi has three proven winners. Andretti should stumble into a victory and it has at least two drivers who should be able to pull it out.
Outside of the four winning teams we saw in 2022, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is on the door step of a victory. Graham Rahal is regularly at the front but the pieces just don't fall his way. Christian Lundgaard looks poised for a breakout. If Jack Harvey can find his form, he could win a race. Ed Carpenter Racing won two years ago with Rinus VeeKay, and VeeKay shows flashes of speed. Not to mention ECR still looks competitive at Indianapolis.
David Malukas was maybe a lap or two away from pulling out a stunning victory at Gateway with Dale Coyne Racing. Meyer Shank Racing has two talented drivers in Hélio Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud.
Of the ten full-time teams, only A.J. Foyt Racing and Juncos Hollinger Racing appear unlikely to win a race, but now that Foyt has hired Santino Ferrucci, you cannot entirely rule out that group on an oval.
Somebody new will breakthrough. Five teams will claim a victory.
3. Colton Herta will end the 2023 season with less than 40 Super License points from IndyCar championship results
The saga of the 2022 season was Herta's pursuit of an FIA Super License, and ultimate failure of reaching the 40-point threshold.
Finishing tenth in the championship gave Herta one Super License point, but with the current provision in the regulation of Super License points coming from the best three of the last four seasons due to the pandemic, Herta's one point for 2022 is effectively dropped and he is stuck on 32 Super License points.
With the four points for his seventh in 2019 about to be dropped, Herta must finish third or better in the championship in 2023 to qualify for a Super License. Of course, Herta can also earn Super License points from participating in the first free practice. Completing over 100 kilometers with no infractions will earn him a point.
But when it comes to championship finishes, the only way Herta can reach 40 Super License points is finishing third or better in the championship. I don't see that happening. Herta is good but Andretti is in shambles compared to a few seasons ago. It is a team that cannot get out of its own way. It throws away too many races. Herta would need to be close to flawless to crack the top three. It isn't impossible, but it is unlikely.
4. Alexander Rossi will have his best average finish since the 2019 season
McLaren has stacked its IndyCar lineup for the 2023 season and adding Rossi at this time could be the final piece of the puzzle. Since purchasing its first piece in Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, McLaren has been aiming to become the exemplary example of IndyCar competition. It has made strides and became a threat to win races, but it hasn't quite become a championship team.
Rossi is motivated and stated one of the reasons for his move to McLaren from Andretti was to win the championship. I don't know if we will see it in year one, but I think we will see Rossi back to that high level we were accustomed to seeing at the start of the universal aero kit era.
In each of the last three seasons, Rossi's average finish has been worse than 12th. There is a lot of room for improvement and we will see it. In 2019, his average finish was 6.352. The season before that it was 5.705. He might not get to that level, but it should be better than 12th.
5. Patricio O'Ward does not win either race immediately preceding an IMS road course race
Here is a peculiar thing in recent seasons, Patricio O'Ward has won the race preceding three of the last four IMS road course races.
In 2021, he won the second Texas race, which was the race prior to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. In 2022, both his victories were the races before IMS road course races. First was Barber Motorsports Park and the other was the second Iowa race.
There are two IMS road course races again in 2023. Barber and Nashville are the races prior to those events. O'Ward will win neither.
6. Conor Daly does not finish ten positions or better than his starting position in the Indianapolis 500
Daly has benefitted from timely pit stops and cautions the last two years in the Indianapolis 500. In each of the last two editions, Daly has made an early pit stop just before a caution and each time it has seen Daly go from middle of the pack to the front.
In 2021, Daly went from a 21st starting position to inside the top three after Stefan Wilson's spin entering the pit lane on lap 33. Daly was leading by lap 50 of that race and then went on to lead a race-high 40 laps before he dropped to 13th.
This past Indianapolis 500 saw the same thing happen. Daly qualified 18th, was running in the middle of the field, but made his second pit stop just prior to Callum Ilott's accident. Up shot Daly to second and he was leading by lap 80. He only led seven laps this year but ended up finishing 6th.
That isn't going to happen again but this prediction cuts two ways. This isn't just predicting Daly will not go from middle of the field into the top ten because of a timely pit stop, but it also takes into consideration Daly might not be able to make up ten positions because he could start in the top ten. It could be the case Daly gets the Ed Carpenter Racing qualifying mojo and ends up starting in the top ten. Even if he were to go from eighth to first this prediction would be correct.
7. Kyle Kirkwood outscores Devlin DeFrancesco by at least 75 points
I am not sure anyone saw the 2022 IndyCar rookie class playing out the way it did.
Many expected Christian Lundgaard to be Rookie of the Year or at least close to it, but David Malukas was the one pushing the Dane. Callum Ilott was the next best rookie despite missing a race. Then it was DeFrancesco and Kirkwood. Expectations were low for DeFrancesco, but Kirkwood wasn't thought to be last of the full-time rookies. Kirkwood was driving for A.J. Foyt Racing, but there was hope he could get something respectable out of that car.
That didn't happen, and it wasn't all the team. Kirkwood made plenty of mistakes. He had eight finishes outside the top twenty. That killed his season and he ended up 23 points behind DeFrancesco in the championship after finishing 111 points ahead DeFrancesco in the 2021 Indy Lights championship while the two drivers were Andretti Autosport teammates.
They will be Andretti Autosport teammates again in 2023 but now in IndyCar. DeFrancesco had a good season, but he had only three results inside the top fifteen. Kirkwood's season was bad, but even he had three top fifteen finishes with his best result being tenth at Long Beach.
I don't think Kirkwood will be that bad again, not in an Andretti car. Andretti might be a borderline dysfunctional team, but Kirkwood will get a leg up in this outfit. The concern is his mistakes. He cannot overdrive the car like he did last year. He should get things under control and make a leap up the championship standings.
Seventy-five points more than DeFrancesco's total would net a driver 17th in the championship in 2022, not great, but the bare minimum of where Kirkwood should be in his sophomore season.
8. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has at least four podium finish
Arguably the best team not to win a race in 2022, RLLR had plenty of good days, but didn't put together many great days. Qualifying was another hinderance for the organization. Many times the team would be starting outside the top ten and then pull out a top ten result.
Graham Rahal had nine top ten finishes, but he started only twice inside the top ten. Christian Lundgaard was finding pace late in the season and had five top ten starts, three of which came in the final five races, including two top five starting positions, the only ones for the team all year. Jack Harvey had the season from hell and he started in the top ten three times, but he regularly went backward.
Rahal was close to a podium finish at Toronto. Lundgaard could have been on the podium at Portland. If this team finds qualifying pace, it will be set up for more podium finishes. I think RLLR will continue heading in the right direction. Rahal and Lundgaard should each get a few podium finishes. The question mark is Harvey. If Harvey is finishing on the podium that should be good news for the other two drivers and the entire organization.
9. The Detroit street race will have the fewest number of total passes among the five street races
IndyCar is moving from Belle Isle to a downtown Detroit street course, and after attending last year's Belle Isle race, I understand the move. Belle Isle is incredible. The park is a lovely setting and the track itself became the best street course in IndyCar.
But Detroit's downtown area is impressive and the location of the circuit is right next to the heart of the city. It will be more accessible to spectators and be a better experience. However, the course is a little uninspired. It is shorter and some of the roads, especially around where the finish line and pit lane will be located, are narrow.
Belle Isle had 280 total passes in 2022, the second most for a street race behind only Nashville's 334. The other street courses had 154 total passes (St. Petersburg), 152 (Long Beach), and 145 (Toronto). I think Detroit will fall down around the rest of the street courses and end up with the least. I think an adequate Detroit race would have about 130 total passes. I think there is a chance the race could be just above 100, but not much more than that.
10. A report will come out about the IndyCar video game being delayed, cancelled or that it is horrible
Full disclosure, I thought of this prediction sometime around late September when it occurred to me IndyCar had said it was working on a video game and yet we went through the entire 2022 season without hearing of any development of said game.
Flash-forward to the week prior to Christmas and IndyCar's video game world is firmly in the spotlight after it was announced IndyCar's licensing in iRacing was set to expire meaning officially sanction IndyCar races could no longer take place on the racing simulator. IndyCar has an exclusive agreement with Motorsport Games, which is responsible for the current NASCAR video game franchise, rFactor2, a competing simulator to iRacing, and Motorsport Games is also working on a FIA World Endurance Championship game.
The planned launch date for the IndyCar game was 2023. It will have 365 days to release the game, but considering we haven't heard anything, I am not sure we are going to see it, and if we do see it, will it be any good?
At the moment, even if the game is good, I don't think it will earn any praise due to the current controversy. However, the NASCAR games Motorsport Games produce aren't rated that highly. They are mostly rated between the high 50s and mid-60s. I would consider horrible anything below 60.
This isn't even mentioning Motorsport Games is losing money. If any game happens, even if it is crap, could be a minor miracle. I am leaning to the IndyCar game not happening in 2023, and possibly not happening at all, leaving IndyCar right where it has been for nearly two decades in the video game, floating in limbo.
11. At least two drivers that start the Indy Lights season with HMD Motorsports do not finish the season with HMD Motorsports
One Indy Lights prediction to mix it up.
HMD Motorsports is fielding eight cars next year with a ninth run in partnership with Force Indy for Ernie Francis, Jr. I have watched Indy Lights long enough to know if a season isn't going well for a driver, he will bail and save his pennies for another season or go elsewhere.
Eight drivers is a lot to keep happy, and not everyone at HMD is going to be successful. We will get to the halfway point at Road America and for a few drivers it will be clear 2023 is not their season to win the Indy Lights championship and earn the scholarship, though a decreased valued scholarship to IndyCar.
Somebody is going to decide that will be enough for them and then someone else will also call it a season before we get to Laguna Seca. It is bound to happen.
12. European drivers combine for at least three victories
It might be a North American championship, but IndyCar has a deep international influence. However, in 2022, European drivers combined for only two victories, Marcus Ericsson in the Indianapolis 500 and Álex Palou in the Laguna Seca season finale.
It isn't a case of European drivers being known for dominating the championship, but two victories is not very many, especially when you consider the drivers in the series. In 2021, European drivers combined for six victories. European drivers only won twice in 2020 and once in 2018, but they had three in 2019 (all at the hands of Simon Pagenaud), three in 2017 (two for Pagenaud and one for Sébastien Bourdais), six in 2016 (five for Pagenaud, one for Bourdais) and five in 2014 (two for Mike Conway and Pagenaud and one for Bourdais. Bourdais also won twice in 2015, and Pagenaud won twice in 2013).
Generally, European drivers get at least three victories in a season, even if it is only one driver responsible for those victories. There is too much talent there to think the likes of Palou, Ericsson, VeeKay, Pagenaud, Lundgaard, Felix Rosenqvist, Romain Grosjean and even Callum Ilott and Jack Harvey cannot combine to win at least three races. Five of these drivers have won in IndyCar before. A few will win again in 2023.
That is it! Predictions are done. NASCAR is done. Formula One is done. Sports car and motorcycles are done. Next up is 2023. The seasons will come quickly at us. Previews will be in full force shortly.
