It is time for motorcycles. We will not only be looking at paved circuit series this year, but we will dive into some dirt, especially as the off-road championships in the United States are seeing a shake up. There has been stagnation in some series over the last few years, but I think 2023 will be the year we see a few changes. It will not be more of the same.
MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez finishes in the top five of the championship
This is swinging big after three injury plagued seasons. Márquez did not win in 2022 and it looked like it was the first time he has struggled with the Honda bike, something every other Honda rider has been exhibiting for the last few seasons.
But even with all the injuries, Márquez still looked dangerous. Even if he wasn't 100%, he was fourth at Motegi, fifth at Buriram and second at Phillip Island after missing the middle portion of the season. Based on his 113 points scored, he was averaging 9.41667 points per start. Extrapolate that over a full 20-race season, he would be on pace for 188.333 points. Brad Binder had 188 points in sixth last year and Jack Miller was fifth on 189 points.
Márquez just has to stay healthy. That has to happen some season, right?
2. At no point will one manufacture have won five consecutive pole positions
Ducati won five consecutive pole positions from Austin to Mugello and then it won six consecutive pole positions from the Sachsenring to Aragón, and just to provide more information, Ducati ended the season with four consecutive pole positions.
The Italian manufacturer produced the most straight-line speed, and it got them the riders', constructors' and teams' championships last year. That speed will still be there but we will not see any manufacturer go on tears and win every pole position for two or three months. It will be more varied...
Also, I am not entirely sure what this prediction means now that every MotoGP race will have sprint races. I thought of this before MotoGP committed to such a decision. I am figuring this out in real time. I guess this refers to qualifying that sets the grid for the sprint race. MotoGP hasn't really clarified who it will considered pole-sitter for a race weekend. Will it be the fastest qualifier or will it be the sprint race winner, who will start first for the grand prix? I am saying now that I am referring to the qualifying sessions, not the sprint races.
3. The Ducati Desmosedici GP22 will have at least four podium finishes
It was the best bike in 2022, but it didn't start the season that way. Ducati won four of the first eight races of the season, but three of those races did not see the Desmosedici GP22 victorious. It was the Desmosedici GP21 that won with Enea Bastianini.
The newer Ducati improved and became the best bike, but the year-old model arguably was the second-best bike of the season.
It seems unlikely the GP23 will have as slow of a start, and Bastianini will now be on the factory bike from the start of the season, but I don't think the GP22 is going to fall off the face of the earth. Marco Bezzecchi was competing at the front on the 2021 bike at the end of last year with VR46 Racing Team. Gresini Racing is a question mark with Álex Márquez joining Fabio Di Giannantonio.
The 2021 bike had seven podium finishes alone in 2022. If the 2021 bike was that good, the 2022 bike should be at least half as good when a year old, regardless of who is riding it.
4. There will be at least seven occasions where the sprint race winner wins the grand prix
We don't know what will happen with sprint races. They are going to be excessive. Some races they are going to feel excessive. Some races they will likely not even match what happens in a full grand prix. If there is rain it could be a mess. We don't know.
But there are 21 grand prix weekends scheduled. I have a feeling that at least a third of the time the sprint race winner will win the big race on Sunday as well. Compared to qualifying, only three times in 20 races did the pole-sitter win in 2022. However, I think a race at half grand prix distance will be more reflective of what we will see in the grand prix than a qualifying session where everyone is trying to find one-lap speed.
I don't think it will become predictable where the sprint race winner is always winning the grand prix. I am not convinced it will happen half the time, but a third of the time is a good amount.
5. Pedro Acosta will be one of the top two Spaniards in the Moto2 championship
Acosta missed two races in the middle of the season and was still fifth in the Moto2 championship in 2022. Champion, and fellow Spaniard, Augusto Fernández has moved to MotoGP. Arón Canet was third. Canet had a good season, but after a year on the Moto2 bike, Acosta should jump Canet. If he jumps Canet, there is a good chance he can be champion.
Alonso López was eighth in the championship despite missing the first six race. He could push Acosta and Canet as well. After that there is a drop off to the other Spaniards. Albert Arenas was 12th in the championship. The only other Spaniard to finish on the podium besides Fernández, Canet, Acosta and López was Jorge Navarro.
Izan Guevara and Sergio García moved up to Moto2 after being the top two riders in Moto3. They should have a few good days, but Acosta will be no worse than the second best Spaniard in Moto2.
6. There will be South American winners in multiple classes
We don't see many South American riders in the grand prix championship series, but let's make an ambitious prediction.
Diogo Moreira was the surprise of the 2022 Moto3 season and the Brazilian was eighth in the championship. Moreira will be back in Moto3 next year. Moto3 will also have 2021 Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup champion, David Alonso of Colombia, compete full-time.
The one series we have seen South American winners is MotoE. Eric Granado has won ten times in MotoE since 2019, including five races last year on his way to finishing runner-up in that championship. Granado will be back in MotoE next year. This prediction is basically hoping we can see a surprise winner in Moto3 next year.
World Superbike/World Supersport
7. Dominique Aegerter will have at least one accident riding in a top three position where he takes down another rider with him
Aegerter has been an impressive rider the last few seasons, making championship pushes in World Supersport and MotoE simultaneously. In 2022, he won both championships after finishing second in MotoE in 2021 while winning the 2021 World Supersport title.
In 2023, Aegerter will compete for GRT Yamaha in World Superbike. It has been difficult for newcomers to succeed in World Superbike. Aegerter likely will not be champion. He might be fighting just to crack the top ten, but there will be a few races where he will stiffing the front positions.
While being a talented rider, Aegerter does have a habit of stepping over the line. In the 2021 MotoE finale, he made a lunge up the inside of Jordi Torres on the final lap at Misano that took Torres out and saw Aegerter take first on the road, but the move was clearly deliberate and resulted in a 38-second penalty that cost Aegerter the title. In 2022, he was excluded from the second race of the Most round after he attempted to fake an injury in the first race of the weekend to draw a red flag and force a restart.
Aegerter has questionable behavior at times. This is a stronger pool he is competing in. And I can see the pressure getting to him at one race when he is at the front, going over the line and taking someone down with him. It doesn't mean it was intentional. It just means it happens.
8. There will be a minimum of two first-time WSBK winners
World Superbike has been kind of stale. Whoever is winning early is winning late. There hasn't been a season in a while where there is an assortment of different winners spread over the rounds.
But the 2023 season will see a shock of talent entering. There is already Aegerter coming into the series, but his GRT Yamaha teammate will be Remy Gardner, the 2021 Moto2 champion, who was 23rd in MotoGP last year.
Eric Granado will also be full-time in World Superbike in 2023 riding for MIE Racing Honda. Danilo Petrucci is joining the series after running full-time in MotoAmerica in 2022 and finishing second in that championship.
Besides those new riders, there are plenty of WSBK experienced riders without a victory. Toprak Razgatliglu's Yamaha teammate Andrea Locatelli has yet to win in two seasons. If BMW finds something it has a winless riders in Garrett Gerloff. British Superbike champion Bradley Ray joins the series on a customer Yamaha. Lorenzo Baldassarri was second in World Supersport in 2022 and he joins World Superbike on a customer Yamaha.
It cannot be the same three winners every weekend. There have to be some new winners, and not just new winners, but first-time winners. We will have at least two.
9. There will be at least four races where two of Álvaro Bautista, Toprak Razgatlioglu and Jonathan Rea are not on the podium and at least one of those is a SuperPole race
In 2022, there were only three races all season where two of the top three riders in the championship were not on the podium.
The first was the second race from Assen. Baustista won, the other two retired. The second was the first race from Magny-Cours. Bautista won, Razgatlioglu was 11th and Rea was 24th. The final race was the second race from Magny-Cours. Razgatlioglu won, Rea was fifth and Bautista retired.
With the riders in this series in 2023, that will be many more podium combinations and there will be different SuperPole podium finishers. In 12 SuperPole races, these three riders took 33 of a possible 36 podium finishes. The other three SuperPole podium results went to Scott Redding (third at Donington Park), Alex Lowes (third at Barcelona) and Andrea Locatelli (third at Mandilika).
There will be different riders on the podium next year and at a greater rate.
10. There will be six weekend sweeps or fewer in World Supersport
There were seven weekend sweeps in World Supersport in 2022. Aegerter was responsible for six of them (Assen, Estoril, Misano, Donington Park, Barcelona and Argentina). The other was Lorenzo Baldassarri at Most.
With Aegerter and Baldassarri moving on, I don't think we will see the same level of dominance as we have in recent seasons. Jorge Navarro will be replacing Aegerter at Ten Kate Racing Yamaha. He should win a few races. I don't think he will see him win 16 races and sweep eight weekends.
There will likely be a few sweeps, but I just don't think they will happen in majority of the season.
Supercross/Motocross
11. The Supercross season opener winner will have multiple victories in 2023
In the last four Supercross seasons, the season opener winner didn't win again that season.
It is usually Justin Barcia who wins. Barcia won the season opener in three consecutive seasons from 2019 through 2021. In all three of those seasons, it was his only victory. In 2022, Ken Roczen won the season opener, and it felt like this trend would be broken, but Roczen was banged up early, and he didn't get another victory.
Marvin Musquin is the last season opener winner to win multiple times in a season, and that was in 2018.
It just has to change. Whoever wins the first Anaheim round will win again over the final 16 races of the 2023 season.
12. The SuperMotocross champion will have an average championship finish greater than 2.5 between Supercross and Motocross
This is a new-era for American off-road motorcycle racing. The SuperMotocross Championship is a combination of the Supercross and Motocross seasons. The top 20 riders from the combined championship will advance to the main events for the two SuperMotocross playoff rounds and the championship round. Riders 21st through through 30th in the combined championship standings will compete in last chance qualifiers in each of the three SuperMotocross rounds.
The individual championships will still exist. With individual championships, we could still see riders prioritize one season over the other. What this prediction is saying is whoever is the SuperMotocross champion has his average championship finish between the Supercross season and Motocross season be greater than 2.5.
Example: If the SuperMotocross champion was first in Supercross and third in Motocross, that average is two and this prediction would be incorrect. If the SuperMotocross champion was fourth in Supercross and second in Motocross, that average is three and this prediction would be correct.
Using 2022 results, Eli Tomac winning the SuperMotocross championship after sweep the Supercross and Motocross titles would mean this prediction is wrong. But if Chase Sexton, who was sixth in the Supercross championship and second in Motocross, won the SuperMotocross title, this prediction would be correct, as his average championship finish was four.
This sounds like a long shot, but I do not think it will be the case.
One prediction remains and it is IndyCar. If you haven't seen it yet, the 2023 NASCAR, Formula One and sports car predictions have already been made.
