Thursday, August 15, 2019

Track Walk: Pocono 2019

IndyCar is back from its second summer break and it returns with a trip to Pocono
The 14th race of the 2019 NTT IndyCar Series takes place at Pocono Raceway for the ABC Supply 500. IndyCar is coming off a two-week break and this is the start of the final of three periods where IndyCar has races over three consecutive weekends. The other occasions were from Indianapolis to Belle Isle to Texas in spring and last month with Toronto, Iowa and Mid-Ohio. This is the fourth of five oval races this season with the final oval race of the season coming up next weekend at Gateway Motorsports Park. Through the first 13 races, no winner has started outside of the top ten with four winners having started on pole position this season and four winners having started outside the top five. The only starting position within the first four rows of the grid not to produce a race winner this season is fifth.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday August 18th with green flag scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Jon Beekhuis, Dillon Welch and Robin Miller will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Saturday:
First Practice: 9:30 a.m. ET (60 minutes)*
Qualifying: 12:30 p.m. ET (Taped-delay coverage on NBCSN at 2:30 p.m. ET)*
Second Practice: 4:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)*
Sunday:
Race: 2:30 p.m. ET (200 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.

Championship Picture
Entering the final quarter of the season there are 266 points left on the table between the next three races and the double points finale at Laguna Seca, meaning 14 drivers will head to Pocono mathematically alive for the Astor Cup.

Team Penske's Josef Newgarden enters at the championship leader with 504 points, 16 points ahead of Andretti Autosport's Alexander Rossi. Newgarden suffered his second retirement of the season after he spun off on the final lap at Mid-Ohio while battling for third with Ryan Hunter-Reay and his race ended in the gravel trap. Newgarden has failed to finish in the top ten in three races this season and in the other ten races he has finished in the top five. Rossi has finished in the top five in seven of the last eight races and his worst finish in the last eight races is sixth. Rossi has finished on the podium of all three oval races this season. Rossi's only finish outside the top ten this season was 22nd in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis after he was hit from behind before taking the green flag.

Simon Pagenaud is third in the championship, 47 points behind his Team Penske teammate Newgarden. Pagenaud has finished ahead of Newgarden in five of 13 races this season with three of those being Pagenaud's victories and the other two being the races where Newgarden did not take the checkered flag. Scott Dixon's victory at Mid-Ohio, combined with Newgarden's misfortune, has Dixon 62 points off the championship lead. Dixon has three consecutive podium finishes and four consecutive top five finishes. Dixon has won at Pocono but the only 500-mile race he has won in his career was the 2008 Indianapolis 500. Dixon's victory in Pocono's return to the IndyCar schedule in 2013 was only a 400-mile race.

Will Power makes it three Team Penske drivers in the top six but Power is 148 points behind Newgarden and he has finished outside the top ten in five of 13 races this season. Ryan Hunter-Reay picked up his second podium finish of the season at Mid-Ohio and he is 171 points off Newgarden. Takuma Sato has fallen into a deep rut with his best finish in the last six races being tenth with an average finish over that span being 16.5. Graham Rahal has himself on 312 points, ten points behind Sato with Rahal entering Pocono with seven consecutive top ten finishes on the trot.

Felix Rosenqvist picked up his first podium finish at Mid-Ohio, finishing less than a tenth of a second behind his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon in the third closest finish in a IndyCar road/street course race. Rosenqvist has three top ten finishes over the last four races. James Hinchcliffe rounds out the top ten on 287 points, nine points behind Rosenqvist. Hinchcliffe was 22nd at Mid-Ohio one race altering finishing third at Iowa.

Sébastien Bourdais dropped outside of the top ten after Mid-Ohio and he is 13 points behind Hinchcliffe. Bourdais has not had a top five finish since he finished third at Barber in the third race of the season. Spencer Pigot has climbed up to 12th in the championship after finishes of fifth and seventh in the last two races and he sits nine points behind Bourdais. Santino Ferrucci has not finished in the top ten in the last four races and he has dropped to 13th in the championship on 259 points. After not having a top ten finish in seven consecutive races, Colton Herta has three top ten results in the last four races and he is the last driver mathematically alive for the championship on 245 points, 259 points behind Newgarden.

Winless Drivers
The final quarter of the season is an anxious time for drivers without a victory. Only four races remain and five of the top ten drivers have not taken to the top step of the podium this season. Six of the top ten active drivers with the most victories have not won yet in 2019.

Leading the pack of hungry drivers is Power. Power enters 2019 with 12 consecutive seasons with a victory, the second longest streak in IndyCar history behind Dixon's 15 season streak that he extended last month at Mid-Ohio. This is not the latest Power has gone without having won a race. In 2013, Power's first victory of the season came on August 25th in the 15th race of the season at Sonoma. Power won that race after finishing fourth at Mid-Ohio. Power heads to Pocono off a fourth place finish at Mid-Ohio.

Hunter-Reay won last year's season finale at Sonoma and he is still looking for his first triumph of 2019. Unlike Power, this would be the latest Hunter-Reay's first victory of a season has come. In 2011, he won at Loudon on August 11th, the 13th race of the season and in 2015, he won at Iowa on July 18th in the 13th race of the season. Hunter-Reay has not won on an oval since his Pocono victory in 2015. Hunter-Reay has not finished on the podium at an oval since he was third at Iowa in 2017.

Rahal heads to Pocono off the back of tremendous results and a top ten finish at Pocono would match his personal best streak of consecutive top ten finishes at eight races. However, Pocono has not been kind to Rahal. In six starts at the track, Rahal's best finish is ninth and his average finish is 15.1667. He has completed all 500 miles at Pocono on two of six occasions.

Bourdais has won a race each of the last five seasons but he has never won a 500-mile race and he has not won an oval larger than a mile since the 2005 Champ Car race at Las Vegas. The good news for Bourdais is his Pocono results in recent years have been promising. Last year, he finished fourth after a hard battle with Dixon and prior to that he had a fifth place at Pocono in 2016 driving for KV Racing.

Tony Kanaan heads to Pocono eliminated from the championship battle and he has only scored 199 points from 13 races, leaving him 18th in the championship. Kanaan has not won since Fontana in 2014 but his last two victories have come in 500-mile races. Prior to his Fontana victory Kanaan won the 2013 Indianapolis 500. Kanaan has won 500-mile races at three different tracks. His first career victory in 1999 came at Michigan in a 500-mile race. Kanaan could become the first driver in IndyCar history to win 500-mile races at four different tracks. His last top five finish was a fifth at Pocono in 2017.

IndyCar has not had a new winner since Dixon won his first race of 2019 in the second Belle Isle race.

Penske's Oval Record
There might be a few things in Will Power's favor this weekend and that is Team Penske has been mighty on ovals since 2017. Entering Pocono this weekend, Team Penske has won all three oval races in 2019, four consecutive oval races dating back to last season and 11 of 15 oval races since Newgarden joined the team in 2017.

Newgarden is responsible for Team Penske's last two oval victories but all three Penske drivers have won in the last four oval races. Newgarden and Power have each won four oval races since 2017. Pagenaud's Indianapolis 500 victory in May was the second oval victory of his career with the other being Phoenix in 2017 and Hélio Castroneves won the 2017 Iowa race.

In the last 15 oval races, Team Penske has won eight pole positions, led 2,085 of 3,640 laps or 57.28% of all oval laps run since 2017 and Team Penske has had multiple drivers lead a lap in 12 of the last 15 oval races. In the three oval races in 2019, Team Penske has led 494 of 748 laps or 66.042% of the oval laps contested in 2019.

In those 15 oval races, Team Penske has combined to lead more than 50% of the laps on seven occasions, including combining to lead all 250 laps at Phoenix in 250, 243 of 300 laps at Iowa in 2017, 240 of 248 laps at Gateawy in 2017, 252 of 300 laps at Iowa in 2018, 144 of 200 laps at Indianapolis this year and 296 of 300 laps at Iowa this year. Penske has won six of the seven oval races where it has led 50% of the laps or more with the exception being Iowa last year.

In the four oval races Team Penske has not won since 2017, a Penske car has finished runner-up in three of those and in last year's Iowa race, Josef Newgarden was the top Penske car in fourth. Team Penske has had at least one top five finisher in 18 consecutive oval races with the last oval race not to have a Penske entry in the top five being the 100th Indianapolis 500 in 2016. Power was the top Team Penske finisher that day and he finished tenth.

Through three oval races in 2019, Pagenaud leads the unofficial oval championship with 174 points and he is only three points clear of Newgarden. Rossi is third on 151 points with Power and Ferrucci tied for fourth on 103 points with the tiebreaker going to Ferrucci. A Penske driver has scored the most points on an oval in five of the last six seasons. However, the last time the driver to score the most oval points in a season won the overall championship was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012.

Penske has won three of the last five Pocono races and it has won ten times at Pocono Raceway, the all-time track record, but its toughest competition this weekend is going to be Andretti Autosport. The two teams have combined to win 11 of the last 13 500-mile races in IndyCar and the two teams have combined to win eight consecutive 500-mile races dating back to Pocono 2015.

500-Mile Race Record
This weekend's Pocono race will be the 174th 500-mile race in IndyCar history and this will be the 25th 500-mile race to take place at Pocono Raceway. The only track to host more 500-mile races is Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Simon Pagenaud became the 97th different driver to win a 500-mile race with his Indianapolis 500 victory in May and he became the fourth Frenchman to win a 500-mile race joining Jules Goux, René Thomas and Gaston Chevrolet. He became the first European driver to win a 500-mile race since Dario Franchitti in the 2012 Indianapolis 500. Pagenaud could become the first driver to win multiple 500-mile races in a single year since Juan Pablo Montoya won at Indianapolis and Michigan in 2000.

Pagenaud could become the eighth driver to win multiple 500-mile races in a year and only the third to be perfect on 500-mile races. Al Unser completed the Triple Crown in 1978 with victories at Indianapolis, Ontario and Pocono and Rick Mears won at Indianapolis and Michigan in 1991.

While Tony Kanaan could make history as the only driver with 500-mile victories at four different circuits, Will Power could join A.J. Foyt, Al Unser, Rick Mears, Bobby Unser and Johnny Rutherford as drivers with five 500-mile race victories. Power is also attempting to win a 500-mile race in his fourth consecutive season. The only other drivers to win a 500-mile race in three consecutive seasons are Bobby Unser, who did it from 1974-76 and 1979-81, and Al Unser, who did it from 1976-78.

Last year, Alexander Rossi led 180 of 200 laps, 450 of 500 miles and he became the ninth driver in IndyCar history to lead at least 450 miles in a race. Rossi was the first driver to lead at least 450 miles in a race since Bobby Unser won the 1980 California 500 at Ontario Motor Speedway. It was the first time a driver has led at least 450 miles in a Pocono race. Rossi could become the first driver in IndyCar history to lead 450 miles multiple times in a career.

Chevrolet has won 11 of 17 500-mile races since it returned to IndyCar competition in 2012. Each manufacture has won at least one 500-mile race a season since 2014.

Fast Facts
This will be the 12th IndyCar race to take place on August 18th and first since Cristiano da Matta won at Road America in 2002.

Mario Andretti won at Springfield on August 18, 1969 and Michael Andretti won on August 18, 1996 at Road America.

Seventeen different drivers have won at Pocono including five different drivers in the last six years. Thirteen of those 17 drivers are Americans.

The only European driver to win at Pocono is Teo Fabi, who won the 1983 race.

The most recent IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio was the 18th time since reunification where none of the podium finishers started in the top five. Dixon started eighth with Rosenqvist in sixth and Hunter-Reay in tenth. It was the third time none of the podium finishers started in the top five this season but the 2015 season had it occur four times.

The 2013 Pocono race had all three podium finishers start outside the top ten with Dixon winning from 17th, Charlie Kimball finishing second from 12th and Dario Franchitti rounding out the all-Ganassi podium from 20th.

Honda and Chevrolet have split the previous six Pocono races with three victories apiece.

Only twice has the Pocono winner started fifth and those were with Johnny Rutherford in 1974 and Will Power in 2017.

Last year's Pocono race was the fourth fastest 500-mile race in IndyCar history with an average speed of 191.304 MPH. It was the 12th 500-mile race to be completed at an average speed above 180 MPH.

Of those dozen 500-mile races, ten different drivers have claimed victory. The only driver with multiple 500-mile race victories with an average speed above 180 MPH is Tony Kanaan. All three of Kanaan's 500-mile race victories came at average speeds above 180 MPH.

The average starting position for a Pocono winner is 5.24 with a median of three.

The average starting position for a Pocono winner since 2013 is seven with a median of 6.5.

The average number of lead changes in a Pocono race is 19.192 with a median of 16.5.

Last year's race had 11 lead changes and it was the eighth time a Pocono race has had 15 lead changes or fewer.

The average number of cautions in a Pocono race is 6.625 with a median of seven. The average number of caution laps is 37.416 with a median of 34.5.

The average number of cautions in a Pocono race since 2013 is four with a median of 3.5. The average number of caution laps is 23.1667 with a median of 14.5.

If you remove the 2015 Pocono race, which had 12 cautions for 74 laps, the average number of cautions since 2013 is 2.4 with a median of three and an average number of caution laps of 13 with a median of 12 laps.

Possible Milestones:
Will Power is one top five finish away from 100 top five finishes.

Ryan Hunter-Reay is one top ten finish away from 125 top ten finishes.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead 61 laps to reach 500 laps led this season and he would become the ninth driver to lead 500 laps in a season since reunification joining Scott Dixon and Hélio Castroneves in 2008, Dixon and Ryan Briscoe in 2009, Dario Franchitti in 2010, Franchitti and Will Power in 2011 and Power in 2014.

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 48 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead 17 laps to reach the 2,000 laps led milestone.

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 44 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Takuma Sato needs to lead 53 laps to reach the 700 laps led milestone.

Graham Rahal needs to lead 12 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.

Predictions
Honda dominates per se and Alexander Rossi gets another 500-mile race victory, Colton Herta gets a top five finish and at least one Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing car gets a top five finish. A Team Penske car will finish on the podium. There will be at least double the number of lap leaders in this year's race compared to last year's race. Tony Kanaan gets his best starting position of the season and his best finish of the season. Charlie Kimball finishes this race. At least ten cars finish on the lead lap. Sleeper: Spencer Pigot.



Monday, August 12, 2019

Musings From the Weekend: We Should Talk About the W Series

A.J. Allmendinger was not disqualified this weekend. There were a slew of drivers picking up their second victories of 2019 this weekend. MotoGP had another thriller in Austria and once again it came down to the final corner. NASCAR raced in two different states. McLaren is getting in bed with Schmidt Petersen Motorsports and people are still trying to put the pieces together. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters made a trip to Brands Hatch and that is where we start but the main event is not what is getting the attention. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

We Should Talk About the W Series
A champion was crowned this weekend in the inaugural W Series season and it was Jamie Chadwick who took the title with a fourth place finish at Brands Hatch. Alice Powell won the season finale.

Regardless of whether or not you kept an eye on it, the W Series is a series with developing drivers and this series could lead to future opportunities for many down the road and we need to talk about it. It is a series that is no different then U.S. F2000, Indy Pro 2000, Formula Three, any of the numerous Formula 4 series around the world and more. It is a stepping-stone for drivers hoping for more.

I am going to come out at the start and say this might seem choppy and this is one person working through some thoughts in the moment. I am going to try and be nuanced as much as I can be.

The W Series was met with a fair amount of criticism when it was first announced and during its development and during the driver selection period. There was a split in the reception of the series. There were prominent people for it and prominent people who had reservations about the series, including Pippa Mann, who saw the series as segregation.

Looking at the W Series grid when it was first announced, seven names I had knowledge of: Jamie Chadwick, Beitske Visser, Alice Powell, Vicky Piria, Caitlin Wood, Sabré Cook and Shea Holbrook. A few names that stood out from the 2019 season were Marta García, who was a front-runner on a regular basis, Emma Kimiläinen won at Assen and unfortunately missed two races due to injury and Fabienne Wohlwend won a pole position, finished on the podium and scored points on a regular basis.

Chadwick, Visser and Powell all had respectable results in single-seater racing prior to W Series. Chadwick was a British GT champion before her success in British Formula Three and her MRF Challenge Formula 2000 championship. Visser was apart of the Red Bull development program and competed in the Formula Renault 3.5 Series and had a few GP3 Series starts before shifting to sports cars in 2017 and 2018. Powell won the 2010 Formula Renault BARC championship and made it to GP3 in 2012 but her career had taken a pause for the three years prior to the W Series opportunity.

It was not really a surprise to see Chadwick, Visser and Powell excel in the inaugural W Series season but the results of García, Wohlwend and Kimiläinen suggest that some talent had been overlooked. Wohlwend had not been in single-seaters since 2016 when she ran Italian Formula 4 and since she had been driving in Ferrari Challenge. Kimiläinen had not run single-seaters since Formula Palmer Audi in 2009 and she was out of racing from 2010 to 2013 before returning to competition in Scandinavian Touring Car Championship, where she raced from 2014 to 2016. García had run mostly in Spanish Formula Four prior to W Series and even took a step back to karting for the entirety of 2018.

W Series is a great thing in that it gave women an opportunity to compete. When you look at the Road to Indy, Formula Three and Formula Two and you see between five series a grand total of two women competing that number is disappointingly low especially when we are off the heels of a decade that saw the rise of Danica Patrick, Simona de Silvestro, Sarah Fisher, Christina Nielsen, Katherine Legge and Mann all be competitive drivers in top series while winning races and championships. The W Series gave 20 drivers jobs and if you love motorsports you should want race car drivers to get the chance to be race car drivers regardless if they are a man or a woman.

On the other hand, I fear W Series will struggle to get past its greatest detractor, as Mann called it, segregation. By being an all-women series its adds to the sentiment of fans to single out that these are great women drivers, not great race car drivers because they are not competing against male counterparts. There are going to be people who look down on the W Series and all of its champions going forward because none of them are competing against men.

Separating the competition causes a riff when top W Series drivers are mentioned in consideration for greater opportunities. They will be compared with the likes fifth best driver in Formula Three or the ninth best driver in Formula Two and because it is another series where no men are competing in W Series driver will likely not be taken as seriously no matter how successful they are.

Let's put it in different terms for some of you to understand the problem with that: IndyCar fans don't want Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi, Josef Newgarden and the rest of the lot to be disrespected because they are successful in IndyCar and not Formula One and immediately dismissed as not being equals to Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, Valterri Bottas and Max Verstappen. If you don't want IndyCar's best to be immediately written off as not great drivers because their success is only in IndyCar and not in Formula One or even NASCAR then you should understand this hurdle facing W Series' future.

I am for giving more opportunities in motorsports and I applaud W Series for what it did in its inaugural season. Hopefully we see the likes of Chadwick, Visser, García and Powell get that next opportunity, whether it be on the road to Formula One or IndyCar or possibly the highest levels of sports car racing.

Looking at the Indy Lights grid and seeing only nine cars entered for each race and the series not meeting the minimum criteria for FIA Super License points I have to think the series would benefit from adopting something similar to W Series or possibly even partnering with W Series to get four or five women on the grid.

First off, it would benefit Indy Lights, as it would make it a series where the drivers would be able to score Super License points and secondly, it would give these drivers an opportunity to compete against a higher level of competition but also a chance to standout. Who is to say someone like Chadwick or Visser couldn't enter Indy Lights right now and be a regular competitor for podium finishes and race victories? The current Indy Lights grid is not that deep and I think the likes of Chadwick, Visser, García and Powell would make that field better.

We should want the W Series drivers to move up and we should want other series to embrace these drivers and see the benefits of having them on the grid. Indy Lights needs more drivers and the series should not care if those drivers are men or women. The W Series has great potential to be a springboard for women drivers unlike anything that has existed before.

It could be a place where young drivers get their start and know they will have an opportunity to compete the following year especially if they get results. The top 12 in the W Series will be reserved a spot on the grid for the following season if they choose to take it. No other series in the world can make that guarantee that results will mean your job is safe.

Job security is great but the top drivers each year from the W Series should branch out to the Road to Indy and into the Formula One ladder system and it should be a pipeline where six to eight women a year are moving on and another six to eight drivers come in and it provides a constant flow of opportunity.

The greatest success of the W Series will come down to whether or not we are vigilant that those competitors get opportunities outside of W Series. If in five years none of the champions and race winners have been given serious opportunities whether it be in IndyCar, the Road to Indy, Formula One and its ladder system or sports car series around the globe then not only has the series failed but the entire motorsports world has failed for not recognizing talented drivers that are already competing.

Only time will tell how W Series plants itself in the global motorsports infrastructure but it has the chance to be something wonderful for greater participation in series all around the world.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jamie Chadwick and Alice Powell but did you know...

Andrea Dovizioso won MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix after a final corner pass on Marc Márquez. It is Dovizioso's second victory of the season. Brad Binder won the Moto2 race with Álex Márquez finishing second. Romano Fenati won the Moto3 race, his first victory since Misano in 2017. Mike DiMeglio won the MotoE race.

Kevin Harvick won the NASCAR Cup race from Michigan, his second victory of the season. Austin Cindric won the Grand National Series race from Mid-Ohio, his second consecutive victory. Austin Hill won the Truck race from Michigan, his second victory of the season.

Martin Wittmann and René Rast split the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from Brand Hatch and each driver has four victories on the season.

David Gravel won the 59th Knoxville Nationals.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar has a 500-race at Pocono.
NASCAR has a night race at Bristol.
Super Formula has a day race at Twin Ring Motegi.


Friday, August 9, 2019

Let's Look at The League - August 2019

We are in the middle of IndyCar's final summer break and when the series is back in action we will be starting the final quarter of the season. Only five weeks cover the final four races of the season. It is going to flyby fast.

Before we get to the final quarter of the season and get into the serious nature of the championship battle, let's take another look at the fun and fictional sub-championship that could exist in the NTT IndyCar Series.

In March, we introduced the league concept to IndyCar and in June, we went over how the league looked at the halfway point of the season. This third look at the league is at what would be an important time because Pocono would be the final week of the regular season for the top division and the penultimate week for the second division.

We are going to look at this each conference at a time, go over the playoff picture and relegation picture for each, give the week-by-week results and then we will do the same for the second division.

Conference A
#2 Penske 10-3 - y
#9 Ganassi 9-4 - y
#28 Andretti 8-5 - x
#30 RLLR 7-6
#20 ECR 6-7
#18 Coyne 6-7 - e
#15 RLLR 5-8 - e
#26 Andretti 1-12 - r

x - Clinched. y - Clinched Seed. e - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. r - Relegated.

Final Week:
#9 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti
#2 Penske vs. #26 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #20 ECR
#15 RLLR vs. #30 RLLR

The battle will be for the final playoff spot but lets go over the other seeds first.

Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon split their head-to-head match ups, meaning if Dixon wins and Newgarden loses at Pocono, they would have the same record but after head-to-head, the second tiebreaker is overall race victory total and Newgarden has that advantage with four victories to Dixon's two.

Dixon won the first meeting against Ryan Hunter-Reay and they face off this weekend. If Hunter-Reay wins, both drivers are 9-5 but Dixon has two race victories, something Hunter-Reay cannot match, therefore, Dixon is the two-seed.

Hunter-Reay is not safe in the three-seed. He could be tied with Takuma Sato on 8-6 records. The drivers split their head-to-head meetings and Sato has won a race, meaning if Hunter-Reay wins Pocono they would each have a victory, both have finished third on two occasions and Hunter-Reay would get the third-seed with his next best finish being fourth to Sato's seventh.

Sato is not safe, especially if Ed Carpenter finishes ahead of Sébastien Bourdais at Pocono. Regardless of what Bourdais does at Pocono, Sato owns the tiebreaker. Sato and Bourdais split the head-to-head but even if Bourdais wins at Pocono, Sato has finished third on two occasions and Bourdais has only finished third on one occasion.

However, the #20 ECR entry is 2-0 against the #30 RLLR entry. Ed Jones bested Sato at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Carpenter bested Sato at Iowa, by one position 19th to 20th. If Sato loses to his teammate Graham Rahal and Carpenter bests Bourdais, the #20 ECR entry gets the fourth spot.

Sadly, the relegation battle was decided at Toronto. Zach Veach didn't get a head-to-head victory until Iowa and sadly, he is playing for bragging rights at Pocono.

Results:
Week 1:
#9 Ganassi vs. #26 Andretti (2 to 14)
#28 Andretti vs. #30 RLLR (23 to 19)
#2 Penske vs. #20 Carpenter (1 to 21)
#18 Coyne vs. #15 RLLR (12 to 24)


Week 2:
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (7 to 13)
#28 Andretti vs. #20 ECR (3 to 14)
#2 Penske vs. #15 Rahal (2 to 4)
#18 Coyne vs. #26 Andretti (5 to 22)

Week 3:
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (2 to 19)
#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR (8 to 23)
#2 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (4 to 3)
#30 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 12)

Week 4:
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (3 to 4)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (5 to 11)
#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 8)
#20 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (16 to 17)

Week 5:
#9 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (2 to 11)
#28 Andretti vs. #2 Penske (17 to 15)
#15 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (9 to 12)
#20 ECR vs. #30 RLLR (6 to 14)

Week 6:
#9 Ganassi vs. #2 Penske (17 to 4)
#28 Andretti vs. #26 Andretti (8 to 29)
#18 Coyne vs. #30 RLLR (30 to 3)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (27 to 6)

Week 7:
#9 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti (22 to 5)
#2 Penske vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 8)
#18 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (11 to 20)
#15 RLLR vs. #30 RLLR (7 to 3)

Week 8:
#9 Ganassi vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 8)
#28 Andretti vs. #30 RLLR (4 to 13)
#2 Penske vs. #20 ECR (19 to 14)
#18 Coyne vs. #15 RLLR (9 to 7)

Week 9:
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (17 to 15)
#28 Andretti vs. #20 ECR (5 to 13)
#2 Penske vs. #15 Rahal (1 to 3)
#18 Coyne vs. #26 Andretti (8 to 20)

Week 10:
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (5 to 22)
#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR (11 to 4)
#2 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (3 to 12)
#30 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (10 to 18)

Week 11:
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (2 to 9)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (16 to 8)
#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (4 to 22)
#20 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (12 to 13)

Week 12:
#9 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (2 to 9)
#28 Andretti vs. #2 Penske (17 to 1)
#15 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (8 to 7)
#20 ECR vs. #30 RLLR (19 to 20)

Week 13:
#9 Ganassi vs. #2 Penske (1 to 14)
#28 Andretti vs. #26 Andretti (3 to 21)
#18 Coyne vs. #30 RLLR (11 to 19)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (9 to 13)

Conference B
#27 Andretti 12-1 - y
#22 Penske 9-4 - x
#12 Penske 9-4 - x
#5 SPM 7-6 - y
#10 Ganassi 5-8 - e
#7 SPM 4-9 - e
#21 ECR 3-10 - z
#98 Andretti 3-10 - z

- Clinched. - Clinched Seed. e - Eliminated from Playoff contention, safe from relegation. z - Eliminated from Playoff contention, not safe from relegation.

Final Week:
Week 14
#27 Andretti vs. #12 Penske
#22 Penske vs. #21 ECR
#7 SPM vs. #5 SPM
#98 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi

This is sealed up but the relegation battle is intriguing. Rossi has locked up the top spot. His only loss was the Indianapolis 500, where he finished second overall to the guy who beat him head-to-head, Simon Pagenaud. 

Simon Pagenaud owns the tiebreaker 2-0 over Will Power with his Grand Prix of Indianapolis victory and he won the head-to-head match up at Iowa. All Pagenaud has to do is defeat Spencer Pigot and he will be the two-seed in conference B regardless of what Power does. If Pagenaud does not defeat Pigot and Power defeats Rossi then Power will be the two-seed and Pagenaud will drop to the third seed. 

James Hinchcliffe is the fourth seed. He can't move up to third, he can't get knocked down to fifth. Hinchcliffe will face Newgarden in the first round of the playoffs. 

All focus should be on the relegation battle. Marco Andretti won the first two weeks, he lost the next ten and he staved off relegation at Mid-Ohio when he defeated Hinchcliffe. The bad news is Pigot is 2-0 against Andretti head-to-head. Andretti has to defeat Felix Rosenqvist at Pocono and Andretti needs Simon Pagenaud defeat Spencer Pigot. That is the only way Andretti can stay up.

There is a chance Andretti could be 4-10, Pigot could be 4-10 and Marcus Ericsson could be 4-10. In that case, it would come down to a head-to-head amongst the three. Andretti split with Ericsson and lost both times to Pigot, so he would be 1-3, Pigot was 2-0 against Andretti and split with Ericsson so he would be 3-1 and Ericsson would be 1-1 against Andretti and 1-1 against Pigot so he would be 2-2 and Andretti would be relegated.

Results:
Week 1:
#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 11)
#12 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (3 to 4)
#22 Penske vs. #5 SPM (6 to 7)
#7 SPM vs. #98 Andretti (13 to 20)

Week 2:
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (9 to 23)
#12 Penske vs. #5 SPM (24 to 16)
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (19 to 6)
#7 SPM vs. #21 ECR (11 to 15)

Week 3:
#27 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (5 to 6)
#12 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (11 to 14)
#22 Penske vs. #7 SPM (9 to 7)
#10 Ganassi vs. #21 ECR (10 to 17)

Week 4:
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (1 to 13)
#12 Penske vs. #7 SPM (7 to 20)
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (6 to 10)
#5 SPM vs. #21 ECR (9 to 18)

Week 5:
#27 Andretti vs. #7 SPM (22 to 24)
#12 Penske vs. #22 Penske (7 to 1)
#98 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 13)
#5 SPM vs. #10 CGR (8 to 16)

Week 6:
#27 Andretti vs. #22 Penske (2 to 1)
#12 Penske vs. #21 ECR (5 to 14)
#7 SPM vs. #10 CGR (13 to 28)
#98 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (26 to 11)

Week 7:
#27 Andretti vs. #12 Penske (2 to 18)
#22 Penske vs. #21 ECR (6 to 10)
#7 SPM vs. #5 SPM (9 to 13)
#98 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (4 to 16)

Week 8:
#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 21)
#12 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (3 to 16)
#22 Penske vs. #5 SPM (17 to 18)
#7 SPM vs. #98 Andretti (2 to 6)

Week 9:
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (2 to 12)
#12 Penske vs. #5 SPM (9 to 19)
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (6 to 10)
#7 SPM vs. #21 ECR (7 to 14)

Week 10:
#27 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (1 to 7)
#12 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (2 to 23)
#22 Penske vs. #7 SPM (9 to 13)
#10 Ganassi vs. #21 ECR (6 to 14)

Week 11:
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (3 to 10)
#12 Penske vs. #7 SPM (18 to 20)
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (1 to 5)
#5 SPM vs. #21 ECR (6 to 15)

Week 12:
#27 Andretti vs. #7 SPM (6 to 11)
#12 Penske vs. #22 Penske (4 to 15)
#98 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 21)
#5 SPM vs. #10 CGR (3 to 14)

Week 13:
#27 Andretti vs. #22 Penske (5 to 6)
#12 Penske vs. #21 ECR (4 to 7)
#7 SPM vs. #10 CGR (23 to 2)
#98 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (15 to 22)

League Two
#19 Coyne 8-5
#88 HSR 8-5
#14 Foyt 7-6
#59 Carlin 7-6
#4 Foyt 5-8 - e
#23/#31 Carlin 4-9 - e

p - Promoted. e - Eliminated from Promotion

Week 14:
#14 Foyt vs. #23 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin

Week 15
#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt
#23 Carlin vs. #59 Carlin
#88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne

League Two does not have a playoff and the best two after a 15-week round robin will move up.

It is a four-horse race and it is up for any of those four. Colton Herta faces two entries still battling for the two promotion spots in the final two weeks, the unknown #59 Carlin at Pocono and Santino Ferrucci at Gateway. Both Ferrucci and Herta could be safe after Pocono. If both drivers win and Tony Kanaan does not beat Charlie Kimball at Pocono then it is over and the final week will be for pride. Ferrucci has Matheus Leist at Pocono.

Foyt is fortunate because it has Kanaan against Leist in the final week and if this league existed and if it mattered, hello manipulation. The team could make sure Kanaan gets promoted. Can you say start-and-park for Leist? The same is true for the two Carlin entries. That would be fun to watch.

What is the root for chaos scenario?

Here are the head-to-head records and these will be important:
#19 Coyne vs. #88 HSR (1-1, meet week 15)
#19 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt (3-0 #14 Foyt)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (3-0 #19 Coyne)
#88 HSR vs. #14 Foyt (2-1 HSR)
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin (2-0 #59 Carlin, meet week 14)
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (3-0 #14 Foyt)

Ferrucci wins at Pocono, Herta loses at Pocono, Kanaan and the #59 Carlin win at Pocono.

Ferrucci enters at 9-5, Herta at 8-6, Kanaan at 8-6 and the #59 Carlin at 8-6.

Herta defeats Ferrucci at Gateway, Kanaan wins at Gateway and the #59 Carlin wins at Gateway and all four drivers would be 9-6.

What would happen? The results against the #4 Foyt entry and the #23/#31 Carlin entry would be dropped and it would come down to a four-team table.

#14 Foyt 7-2
#88 HSR 4-5
#19 Coyne 4-5
#59 Carlin 3-6

The #14 Foyt would be promoted and then the #88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne tiebreaker would go to head-to-head, which would be in favor of the #88 HSR entry.

What about just a three-way tiebreaker?

Herta and Ferrucci both lose at Pocono and Kanaan and the #59 Carlin entry both win. All four entries would be 8-6 entering the final week.

Week 15 could be go-or-go-home for Ferrucci and Herta. Regardless, one of those two will be 9-6 if there is a four-way tie. If both the #14 Foyt and #59 Carlin win and make it a three-way tie at 9-6, the #14 Foyt would advance and the #19 Coyne would advance.

If Herta is the 9-6 driver in a three-way tie, the #14 Foyt advance with a record of 4-2 head-to-head and it would come down to what happens at Pocono. If the #59 Carlin wins at Pocono and the #59 Carlin entry is in a three-way tie with the #88 HSR entry and the #14 Foyt entry, the #59 Carlin would get the second promotion spot with a record of 3-3 head-to-head to the #88 HSR's head-to-head record of 2-4.

A lot of hypotheticals have been laid out and there are more but we do not have the time to explore. Let's just wait and see how it actually plays out.

Results:
Week 1:
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (15 to 16)
#23 Carlin vs. #19 Coyne (9 to 17)
#4 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (22 to 8)

Week 2:
#14 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (12 to 20)
#23 Carlin vs. #88 HSR (8 to 1)
#4 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (17 to 21)

Week 3:
#14 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (18 to 24)
#23 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (16 to 20)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (15 to 22)

Week 4:
#14 Foyt vs. #23 Carlin (19 to 12)
#4 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (15 to 21)
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin (14 to 23)

Week 5:
#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 20)
#23 Carlin vs. #59 Carlin (19 to 18)
#88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne (23 to 10)

Week 6:
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (9 to DNQ)
#23 Carlin vs. #19 Coyne (7 to 25)
#4 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (15 to 33)

Week 7:
#14 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (15 to 19)
#23 Carlin vs. #88 HSR (14 to 12)
#4 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (21 to 17)

Week 8:
#14 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (22 to 12)
#23 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (11 to 20)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (10 to 15)

Week 9:
#14 Foyt vs. #23 Carlin (16 to 21)
#4 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (22 to 4)
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin (18 to 11)

Week 10:
#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt (21 to 20)
#23 Carlin vs. #59 Carlin (17 to 16)
#88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne (8 to 19)

Week 11:
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (17 to 14)
#23 Carlin vs. #19 Coyne (21 to 11)
#4 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (19 to 7)

Week 12:
#14 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (10 to 12)
#23 Carlin vs. #88 HSR (22 to 18)
#4 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (16 to 13)

Week 13:
#14 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (8 to 20) 
#23 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (17 to 18)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (12 to 16)




Wednesday, August 7, 2019

2019 MotoGP Midseason Report

Last week, MotoGP returned from its summer break and it surpassed the halfway point of its 2019 season. Ten races have been completed and nine remain, including a race this weekend from Austria. With that in mind it is time to look back and see how the season is progressing with around three months to go until the finale.

Where Are We Now?
Marc Márquez won his sixth race of the season last week at Brno and with his other results being three runner-up finishes and a retirement, Márquez leads the championship with 210 points, 63 points clear of Ducati rider Andrea Dovizioso, who has not won since the season opener at Losail. Danilo Petrucci is third in the championship on 129 points but his only victory this season was at Mugello. Álex Rins won at Austin, giving Suzuki its first victory since 2016 but Rins is fourth on 114 points and Dutch TT winner Maverick Viñales rounds out the top five on 91 points.

It's Márquez's to Lose?
Absolutely.

There are nine races to go, Márquez's championship lead is 63 points over Dovizioso. If Dovizioso wins the final nine races and Márquez finishes second in all nine races, Márquez wins the title with 390 points to 372 points. Dovizioso isn't going to win every race but Márquez very well could finish first or second in the nine remaining races.

What has made this Márquez's season is that no one has stepped up and made it a two-horse race. Márquez is the only repeat winner through ten races. Dovizioso has had a respectable season. He has only one victory but he has five podium finishes and he has finished in the top five in every race but Barcelona, where he was taken out. Most seasons that would have him second in the championship but within shouting distance for the championship lead. His first half would have set him up for a championship push in the second half but with Márquez being the only dominant force, Dovizioso is going to need Márquez to miss multiple races to have a shot at the title.

What About the Other Race Winners?
This has kind of been the Márquez/Dovizioso show with a rotating guest on the podium each week.

Outside of those two, no other rider has more than three podium finishes this season. Valentino Rossi had a pair of runner-up finishes in the first three races. Rins had a pair of podium finishes, Petrucci had three consecutive podium finishes, Viñales and Fabio Quartararo each had a pair of podium finishes, Jack Miller has two podium finishes and Cal Crutchlow's podium finishes have come spread out over the course of the season.

There is nothing that points to Petrucci, Rins or Viñales being set up for a championship push.

Who Has Been the Breakout Rider?
Fabio Quartararo.

While no other rider but Márquez has multiple victories, Quartararo has three pole positions this season and two of those have let to podium finishes and on top of that he has two fastest laps. He is the top rookie on 76 points and he is ninth in the championship.

I think Jack Miller deserves a mention considering he is seventh in the championship with two podium finishes. It has been three years since Miller won the Dutch TT in sloppy wet conditions, this is his fifth year on the MotoGP grid and he is sitting in prime position for his best championship finish.

Where is Valentino Rossi?
Sixth in the championship, one point behind his teammate Viñales but without a victory.

We are two years removed from Rossi's most recent victory at the Dutch TT and in this era of Márquez dominance it is hard to look at two runner-up finishes and say this is a good season for Rossi. Rossi was third in the championship last year but he did not win a race and he did not finish on the podium in the final nine races.

Yamaha's bike has been spotty. There have been times when the Yamahas have struggled for pace, there have been times when Quartararo is the best of the lot and there have been races where the Yamahas have gone to the front despite starting at the back.

Rossi has started in the top five on four occasions and he has started outside the top ten on five occasions. Despite all this, he is only one point off Viñales. I am not sure Rossi will win a race but if it is a case where either Márquez wins or someone new comes out on top then maybe Rossi wins at Austria this weekend or Silverstone or Misano. I am not going to be expecting it but I will not rule it out.

Where is Jorge Lorenzo?
Injured with a broken vertebra that occurred at practice Assen and Lorenzo will miss Austria this weekend, his fourth consecutive race missed.

Even before the injured, the results were not encouraging for Lorenzo. In his first seven starts, his best finish was 11th. He has scored 19 points this season. He has started in the top ten only twice this season and in the one race where it seemed like things were starting to turn around he took himself, Viñales, Rossi and Dovizioso all out on lap two at Barcelona while all four were fighting in the top five.

The last three years have been head scratching for Lorenzo.

Is the Honda Bike Not as Good as Márquez is Making It?
This first came to mind after Brno and looking at the championship, Márquez is dominating but the next Honda rider is Cal Crutchlow in eighth. There are three Ducatis, two Yamahas and a Suzuki between Márquez and Crutchlow and Crutchlow is only two points ahead of Quartararo, who rides a Yamaha. Crutchlow very well could be ninth in the championship.

Lorenzo had not finished in the top ten this season and had not started in the top five. Stefan Bradl has replaced Lorenzo the last two races and he will be back for Austria and Bradl's finishes have been tenth in Germany and 15th at Brno. Takaaki Nakagami is 11th in the championship on 57 points, four behind KTM factory ride Pol Espargaró, with Nakagami's best finish being fifth at Mugello and his only finishes outside the top ten being 14th at Germany and retirements at France and Netherlands.

Crutchlow does have two podium finishes this season and he has been in the second round of qualifying in nine of ten races. He has held his own while not coming close to Márquez's level of success.

Crutchlow's success seems to cancel out any thoughts that Márquez's dominance is coming solely because of Márquez's ability. Think about it this way: remove Márquez and Honda, in theory, is the third best bike and Márquez is the lone reason Honda is on top. I don't buy that. I think it is just a case of Lorenzo didn't meshed with the bike in the partial season he has had, Márquez has been on another level and Crutchlow's results on a privateer bike have been sufficient.

What About the Rest of the Field?
Umm... KTM seems to be finding something. It is encouraging that Pol Espargaró is tenth in the championship and he has five top ten finishes and KTM had five top ten finishes all of 2018. Johann Zarco hasn't been close to Espargaró but Zarco has had encouraging signs, such as starting third at Brno. Things are looking up for KTM.

Quartararo has been out performing his Petronas Yamaha SRT teammate Franco Morbidelli and that is a slight surprise. Morbidelli's results are better than last year but coming into 2019 because Morbidelli won the Moto2 championship and Quartararo's best championship finish in Moto2 and Moto3 was tenth, I am not sure we would have been comfortable saying Quartararo would have a comfortable margin over this teammate in the championship. If you had said in March Quartararo would be in the top ten of the championship after ten races I would have guessed Morbidelli would be in the top ten as well.

Aprilla had 64 points all of last year and through ten races the team has 52 points with Aleix Espargaró leading Andrea Iannone but surprisingly it is Espargaró who has three retirements while Iannone has retired only once.

Joan Mír is a distant second to Quartararo among the rookies and Miguel Oliveira and Francesco Bagnaia are both struggling to get results.

What Has It Been Like Being a MotoGP Fan in the United States in 2019?
Terrible.

We are pushing a year since I have been able to see MotoGP on television. Around this time last year, beIN Sports had a massive carrier fee disagreement with Comcast, Verizon and AT&T. At the end of August 2018, beIN Sports was dropped from Comcast, Verizon Fios and Directv and I don't know who has the channel now. None of these cable properties have seemed to budged and worked out an agreement with beIN Sports, meaning MotoGP is basically myth to me.

The best I can do is following races along on Motorsports.com's live text feed and that feels like something I would do 15 years ago when that was the best you could do with dialup internet.

MotoGP doesn't help because it makes it really difficult to even see highlights. It would be nice if MotoGP had official highlights and not snippets of action with SLOMO shots over dramatic music. A ten-minute cutdown of the race would be nice, unfortunately all of that seems to be behind a paywall.

Granted, MotoGP is available if I wanted to pay for the streaming service and it is arguably a great deal but things start to add up. I forgot what it was at the start of the season but if it was $120 for the entire, add to it $50 for IndyCar's NBC Gold pass and then a cable subscription it adds up and there are other expenses more pertinent. You can't have everything and as much as I would love to watch MotoGP, dropping an extra $120 even for the entire year is tough to justify. I am sure it would give me everything I wanted but at some point you have to say no.

Before last year, beIN Sports was doing a great job with MotoGP. BeIN Sports' biggest issue is it was always on a higher tier and few people could see it but in terms of what it put out, it was pretty much an uninterrupted five hours of motorcycle racing from 4:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. ET. You got Moto3, Moto2 and MotoGP live and that was most race weekends. There were the times when some races were missed because of soccer commitments because beIN Sports also has the rights to La Liga and Ligue 1 in the United States but at least the MotoGP race would be live unless Real Madrid, Barcelona or Paris Saint-Germain were playing.

Honestly, I am wishing MotoGP were something ESPN+ scooped up because I think that would push me over the line to get ESPN+. ESPN+ is already showing Formula Three and Porsche Supercup, there is a ton of soccer on ESPN+, during hockey season there is always a game or two a night available nationally, if it added MotoGP then I think that would be do it and I would have to get it.

The problem is MotoGP is not Formula One. The American audience is not the size of Formula One or IndyCar or IMSA. It cannot demand that much, meaning if a beIN Sports wants to pay an outrageous fee then it will go to beIN Sports, even if only 10,000 people are watching. If ESPN were to pick it up, most races would only be available on ESPN+. Maybe the Austin race would be broadcasted on ESPNNEWS but it would not be like Formula One where everything is spread over ESPN2 and ESPNU and the occasional race is on ESPN and maybe even ABC. MotoGP would not get on ABC and it might get a race on ESPN but of 19 races, I would guess at most five would make it on a cable network and the rest would only be available via streaming.

As for other American sports entities, I don't think NBC Sports is interested because MotoGP already has a streaming service and NBC Sports has really been pushing things to its NBC Sports Gold streaming service. Premier League takes up most of NBCSN's weekend mornings, meaning MotoGP would only be available via streaming or tape-delay.

MotoGP was once on Fox but Fox has moved away from motorsports other than NASCAR. Its Formula E coverage was poor. There were some races that could not be seen until they aired tape-delayed the following day. Say what you want about NBC Sports but the IMSA races are at least streamed live if they cannot be aired live on NBC Sports, such as Road America last week and Watkins Glen earlier in the summer.

CBS Sports Network is out there and has motorsports properties such as DTM, Supercars and FIM Motocross but nothing is shown live and that is a shame because nothing is on live at 8:00 a.m. ET on Sundays but CBS Sports will still show cheerleading for two years ago tape-delayed. On top of that, it does not have a great streaming service even if you are already a subscriber.

Outside of those options, no one off the wall is going to get MotoGP. Maybe Motor Trend, the artist formerly known as Velocity, but Motor Trend has to do a better job. It only showed the first hour and the last hour live of every FIA World Endurance Championship race outside of Le Mans and I think Sebring. That is nice but why so little live coverage? Why are you treating it like a race from the 1970s and you can't give flag-to-flag live coverage? Why does it feel like I am watching it on Wide World of Sports except instead of getting weightlifting, curling, beach volleyball and badminton in-between the race action we are getting a bunch of car shows that all start to look the same after a while?

No offense, but when your weekend content is mostly re-runs there is no reason to have a three-year-old episode of Classic Car Garage or Flatbed Monthly or whatever it airs taking priority during the middle of a race. Motor Trend mind as well do what beIN Sports did and just show everything live from 4:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. ET. There is nothing on Motor Trend that would get noticeably better ratings at that time on a Sunday than live racing.

I got to remain optimistic but MotoGP's deal with beIN Sports cannot end soon enough. Same with World Superbike but right now we are focused on MotoGP.

What Should We Look For in the Second Half?
More Márquez dominance. This is going to be the first time MotoGP has contested a 19-race season, barring no races are cancelled again (looking at you Silverstone) and Márquez's best points per race was 20.111 in 2014, the year he won the first ten races and 13 of 18 races. He is currently averaging 21 points per race with nine to go. I kind of want to see if he beats that 2014 record.

Meanwhile, his brother Álex Márquez is having a breakout Moto2 season, having won five of the last six races and holding the championship lead with 161 points, 34 points ahead of former MotoGP rider Thomas Lüthi. Through ten race weekends only Qatar, the United States and the Dutch TT did not have a Márquez brother win a race. Álex's streak has Petronas Yamaha SRT interested in signing him for Moto2 in 2020 with a shot at MotoGP in the future.

Unlike MotoGP, where Marc Márquez is the only rider with multiple victories, Lorenzo Baldassarri won three of the first four Moto2 races but he has not been on the podium since that third victory of the season and that has him sixth in the championship. This Moto2 season is heavily in Márquez's favor.

Can anyone make it interesting for either of the Márquez brothers over the final nine races? I have no doubts Marc Márquez is going to win his eighth world championship, his fourth consecutive MotoGP title and his sixth MotoGP title in seven seasons if he stays healthy but even if health is in Álex Márquez's favor, I still find myself hesitant to crown him Moto2 champion in August. It will be up to someone to chase him down but it will also be up to Álex not to unravel.



Monday, August 5, 2019

Musings From the Weekend: We Need Rules

Max Verstappen became the 100th driver to win a pole position in Formula One history but Lewis Hamilton picked up his 81st career victory in the Hungarian Grand Prixafter chasing down Verstappen on fresher tires after an audible to a two-stop strategy and taking the lead with four laps to go. A.J. Allmendinger was disqualified for the second time in as many starts this season in NASCAR's second division. There was a hat-trick completed in IMSA. Fuji has had nothing but wet races this year and the rain caused a red flag this weekend. A famous last name picked up a popular victory, actually, a few popular names were victorious this weekend. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

We Need Rules
Rules have been a key topic of 2019. A lot of the standout moments of this year around the motorsports world have come down to rules and there has been some pushback when rules have been enforced and how they are enforced in some circumstances.

We need rules. A race cannot take place without rules and I am not only talking about inspections, pit lane speed limits, additives in the fuel, drug test, and so on but I am talking about what happens on the racetrack as well and that is where it seems like some people have become perturbed.

The most notable situation this year was the Canadian Grand Prix when Sebastian Vettel was leading the race. It seemed like the German had the race in the bag and on lap 48, Vettel went off in turn three, he rejoined the circuit in front of second place Lewis Hamilton and Vettel continued in the lead.

Vettel was handed a five-second penalty for unsafely rejoining the circuit, Hamilton finished within five seconds of Vettel on the road, Vettel was relegated to second, Hamilton claimed the victory, it allowed for great scenes with Vettel stomping off to the Ferrari hospitality before heading to the podium and removing the #1 markers from in front of Hamilton's car. Many were angry with the decision.

For starters, there was the camp that felt the race was being over-regulated and that drivers were not allowed to be drivers. The feeling was a race was not being allowed to take place. Many felt a battle was taken away from them because there was no incentive for Hamilton to pass Vettel once the penalty had become public. All Hamilton had to do was stay within five seconds. On the reverse, many felt the race was stolen from Vettel and there was nothing he could do once given the penalty, except you know, increase his lead to greater than five seconds, easier said than done but still an option.

Vettel didn't get a penalty for nothing. Vettel did go off track and he did rejoin the circuit at a slower rate of speed ahead of Hamilton. Mistakes happen but that doesn't mean mistakes are immune from penalties. In soccer, if a player jumps to head the ball and inadvertently an elbow of the jumping player catches an opponent in the face the jumping player is going to get a card, at least yellow if not red and there would be a convincing argument that it would be a red. It might not have occurred on purpose but it still happened, the rules have to be enforced and the punishment might be harsh even if there was no intended malice.

Montreal is a tight circuit and the turn three and turn four section has no run-off on the exit of turn four. Vettel returned to the racetrack and immediately rejoined the racing line. Hamilton could not have gone wide because of the barrier on the outside of turn four and he could not cut back to his left or he would have made contact with Vettel.

It cannot be a free-for-all on the racetrack. There has to be some policing of what occurs. Drivers cannot leave the racing surface and return without someone taking notice, otherwise, why not allow drivers to cut every chicane and corner out there? If Vettel had missed the final chicane, cut through and done the same thing to Hamilton, it would have unquestionably been a penalty, mostly because the stewards force drivers to go around a bollard if that right-hander is missed but because the course was cut.

Speaking of what happens on the racetrack, one week later in Iowa, there was another on-track innocent but unlike Vettel and Hamilton, this occurred under caution conditions. In the NASCAR Truck race, Austin Hill spun Johnny Sauter. Sauter rushed down Hill and hit him under caution. Sauter's race was over and Sauter would be suspended for the next race.

Many were upset Sauter was suspended. It is more a NASCAR thing. There is definitely a feeling that anything that happens on the racetrack should be off limits to punishment in the NASCAR world, even if it under yellow. It is the "boys have it" state of mind.

However, you cannot have drivers disobeying caution speed and spinning other drivers under yellow. In layman's terms, using an automobile as a weapon.

There are too many things that can go wrong. You have safety trucks on the track and possibly track workers out there. If someone cannot control himself and maintain a level head he could put innocent people in danger when they otherwise should not be.

It is no different in other sports when a whistle is blown. You cannot blindside a quarterback after the whistle, in hockey, only so much is allowed after the whistle and same is true in basketball, soccer and any other sport. At some point a higher authority has to step in and motorsports, NASCAR, Formula One, IndyCar and the lot is no different. If a competitor gets out of line, the officials have to discipline him or her.

We need rules. People cannot tune into a race and see nothing but chaos. If people don't understand what is going on or do not see any level of fairness they are not going to continue to watch. In any competition, people want to see the best go at but it within limits. Nobody wants to see someone come out on top because someone overstepped the boundary.

NASCAR has come around to disqualifying drivers when a car fails post-race inspection and that has not been a drastic shock to the system. Ross Chastain lost a victory after that Iowa Truck race in June.  Christopher Bell lost a top five finish. A.J. Allmendinger has been disqualified twice in two starts! There hasn't been mass outrage over disqualifications... yet... but it is the rules being enforced. If NASCAR had found any of those drivers to have failed technical inspection but allowed those drivers to keep the results or keep the results and lose only 25 points or just be fined $100,000 people would be upset about that. Why? Because the rules were not enforced.

It is not just needing rules but making sure the rules are correctly enforced and consistently being enforced. Rules are necessary and must be used, not ignored.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Lewis Hamilton but did you know...

Marc Márquez won the Czech motorcycle Grand Prix, his second consecutive victory, his sixth victory of the season, his 50th premier class victory and his 76th grand prix victory, putting him in a tie for fourth all-time with Mike Hailwood. Álex Márquez won the Moto2 race, his second consecutive victory and his fifth of the season and all five victories have come in the last six races. Arón Canet won the Moto3 race, his second victory of the season and it give Canet the Moto3 championship lead.

Nicholas Latifi won the Formula Two feature race from Hungaroring and Mick Schumacher picked up his first Formula Two victory in the sprint race. Christian Lundgaard and Marcus Armstrong split the Formula Three races.

Chase Elliott won the NASCAR Cup race from Watkins Glen, his second victory of the season and his second consecutive Watkins Glen victory. Austin Cindric won the Grand National Series race, his first career Grand National Series victory. Stewart Freisen won the Truck race from Eldora, his first career Truck Series victory.

The #55 Mazda Team Joest Mazda of Harry Tincknell and Jonathan Bomarito won the IMSA race from Road America. The #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson of Matt McMurry and Patrick Kelly won in the LMP2 class, McMurry and PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports' fourth consecutive victory. The #67 Ford GT of Richard Westbrook and Ryan Briscoe won in the GTLM class, their second consecutive victory. The #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche of Matt Campbell and Zacharie Robichon won in the GTD class, Pfaff's and Robichon's second consecutive victories and Campbell's first IMSA victory in his third career start.

The #39 Lexus Team LeMans Wako's Lexus of Kazuya Oshima and Kenta Yamashita won the Super GT race from Fuji. The #87 JLOC Lamborghini of Tsubasa Takahashi, André Couto and Kyoto Fujinami won in GT300.

Ott Tänak won Rally Finland, his fourth victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR returns to Michigan.
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters gives Aston Martin its first home race at Brands Hatch and the inaugural W Series season concludes.
MotoGP will be in Austria at Red Bull Ring.


Friday, August 2, 2019

2019 Formula One Midseason Report

Formula One's summer break begins once the checkered flag falls on the Hungarian Grand Prix this Sunday but we have completed 11 of 21 races and with half the season in the bag it is time to look at the first half of the season and see how things play out and how things stack up before the final ten races of the 2019 season.

Where Are We Now?
Through 11 of 21 races, Lewis Hamilton leads the championship with 225 points after winning seven races, nine podium finishes and scoring in all 11 races. Second in the championship, 46 points behind Hamilton is his Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas, who won two of the first four races and has nine podium finishes. The only other driver to win a race this season is third in the championship and that is Max Verstappen of Red Bull Racing, who has won two of the last three races but Verstappen has only four podium finishes this season despite finishing in the top five of all 11 races this season.

Is It Lewis Hamilton's to Lose?
Yes.

Hamilton has won seven races already. He has averaged 10.2 victories a season since 2014. He has a 46-point championship lead, nearly two races clear of the next driver. In the previous five seasons with ten races to go, Hamilton was four points behind Nico Rosberg in 2014, 17 points ahead of Rosberg in 2015, six points ahead of Rosberg in 2016, one point behind Sebastian Vettel in 2017 and 17 points ahead of Vettel last year.

Hamilton has his largest lead with ten races to go in the turbo-hybrid-era. He is on pace for his most victories in a season, very well could match or break Michael Schumacher and Vettel's record of most victories in a season at 13 and if he does break that record, he could break Alberto Ascari's record for highest winning percentage in a Formula One season.

Hamilton is chasing a lot more than the title this season.

Speaking of Records, How is Hamilton Looking in Terms of All-Time Victories?
The good news for Michael Schumacher is he will remain the driver with the most grand prix victories into 2020 as there are only ten races left and Hamilton sits on 80 grand prix victories, 11 behind Schumacher's record of 91 victories.

Since 2014, Hamilton has won at least five of the final ten races each year with his most victories in the final ten races being seven, which occurred last year. I think five victories seem to be the minimum. He is coming off a disaster in the German Grand Prix and the one thing we have seen is when Mercedes has a horrendous weekend it responds in the next race. This team does not stay down long.

If Hamilton wins five more races he will be six victories away entering 2020 and he improve on his average of 10.2 victories a season since 2014. At that point it will be just a matter of when he matches and breaks the record in a season where he will likely be trying to match Schumacher's record of seven World Drivers' Championships.

Outside of Hamilton, Who Are the Bright Spots?
Verstappen has taken on the role of number one driver with ease and we have seen the 21-year-old driver mature over the first 11 races of 2019.

There really has not been a bad situation for Verstappen this year but we haven't seen a meltdown, we haven't seen him unnecessarily curse out the crew and he has sealed the deal in both his victories this season.

In Austria, Verstappen found himself in a toe-to-toe battle with Charles Leclerc. Previous seasons may have been Verstappen overstep the boundary and do something foolish that would have either left him with a broken car, a reprimand or both. Instead, Verstappen found a way through on Leclerc and took a home victory for Red Bull.

In Germany, Verstappen found himself fortunate from the off-road excursions from the likes of Hamilton and Leclerc while his spin proved to be a much more innocent mistake in the varying conditions. With Hamilton out of the way, Bottas out of the way, Leclerc out of the way and Vettel fighting from behind, he cruised to his second victory of the season.

If we are praising Verstappen, we have to praise Honda, who has put together a reliable engine after struggling for majority of its tenure in the turbo-hybrid-era.

Charles Leclerc's move to Ferrari has not stunted the Monegasque driver's growth and the sophomore slump has not bitten the lad. Leclerc could have two grand prix victories to his name had it not been for a failing car in Bahrain and an aggressive Verstappen in Austria. Leclerc has not been intimidated in the Maranello outfit or in the shadow of four-time champion Sebastian Vettel.

We have to mention Valtteri Bottas because for a driver on the hot seat Bottas has been able to achieve great results. He is never going to beat Hamilton straight up on ability in majority of the races but he has two victories this season. He has been on the podium the same number of times as Hamilton. They both had a terrible day at Hockenheim and it is a cruel bit of fate that the two drivers both spin in turn one only for Hamilton to avoid hitting the barrier or beaching the car while Bottas clattered the barrier while contending for a podium spot. On top of that, Bottas' future will likely be decided before the summer break. The 2019 Hungarian Grand Prix might be the most important of the Finn's career.

How Should McLaren Feel?
Sour.

Honda has two victories this season and Red Bull has scored 147 more points than McLaren this season. Red Bull has scored more points through 11 races than McLaren scored in the previous four seasons combined.

The good news for McLaren is both Carlos Sainz, Jr. and Lando Norris have been able to get the car back into the top six on a regular basis with one car in the top six in six of the first 11 races. The team is still a distance off the podium though we see it has gotten back into a position to be in a position to capitalize on a rainy day. That is progress.

What is Going on at Ferrari?
Ferrari is a team more focused on beating itself than beating Mercedes.

The last year has been a complete unraveling of the wonderful start to the first half of 2018 where it appeared Ferrari was going to be a championship contender.

We touched upon Leclerc above but Sebastian Vettel leads the way in the team and Vettel has made many mistakes. He spun on his own in Bahrain. While many might disagree with the five-second penalty that took away a victory from Vettel in Montreal for not re-joining the racetrack in a safe manner it was still a case in a race where Vettel was facing very little pressure he could not keep the car on the road.

Once the mistake had been made and the penalty had been handed down, instead of driving to cover the five-second gap, Vettel let Hamilton close and almost had Leclerc get within the five-second delta, which would have dropped Vettel to third.

Ferrari is a mess of sorts. It needs a better vision. Right now it is a group focused on being Ferrari, living up to the previous 90 years but not taking into consideration what has to be done to win in 2019.

The good news is I somehow feel Ferrari and Vettel hit rock-bottom in Germany this past weekend, not last year when Vettel tossed away a victory after going off course in a drizzle, but last week when he had to start 20th. It appeared it couldn't get any worse for Ferrari. Vettel's car failed, Leclerc's car failed in the final round of qualifying and we saw a revival for Vettel, on home soil nonetheless. In a race where he probably would have been happy to get to sixth, Vettel benefitted from the mistakes ahead of him but he also able to harness his aggression and turn last on the grid to a runner-up finish when a spot of the podium appeared to be out of reach at the start of the day.

Who Else Deserves Praise?
I guess Daniil Kvyat and Scuderia Toro Rosso.

Kvyat was third in Germany and while this might seem knee-jerk, Toro Rossos has 42 points, nine more than the team scored last year. The team is one pace for its best season in its history. Kvyat has scored in six of 11 races. He is eighth in the championship, ahead of Kimi Räikkönen, Lando Norris, Daniel Ricciardo, Lance Stroll, Kevin Magnussen, Daniel Ricciardo, Sergio Pérez and Romain Grosjean.

Not bad of a comeback, now is it?

Alexander Albon is coming off his best finish of the season, sixth in Germany, and he has been good. He is second of the four rookies and he hasn't done anything boneheaded.

Who Needs to Turn it Around?
Renault as a whole.

Ricciardo has 22 points. Hülkenberg has 17 points. Both drivers are outside the top ten in the championship. The team has one finish in the top six. Renault has had five retirements this season and neither car made finish in Bahrain with both breaking down after completing 53 of 57 laps.

I don't think Ricciardo thought this season would be a magnificent run where he would be competing for race victories and showing Red Bull he wasn't wrong for leaving but I cannot imagine he thought it would be this rough.

Hülkenberg is a puzzle. For years he was the driver who just needed a break and yet in eight and a half years in Formula One he hasn't even had a day where he snuck on the podium à la Sergio Pérez, who seems to do it once a season, Lance Stroll or Daniil Kvyat. He holds the dubious record of most starts without a podium finish and that record is only growing having now reached 167 starts. The previous record was 128 starts. We have reached "if it hasn't happened now" territory with Hülkenberg. And he is a Le Mans winner! Some things cannot be explained.

What is the Biggest Mess?
Haas!

As an American, I don't want a Formula One team if it is going to be this dysfunctional. This is a chaotic clusterfuck of an organization and it is an embarrassment. Romain Grosjean was once the heralded driver that carried the young team to the front immediately. Now, Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen cannot go a weekend without getting into each other's way.

Add to it Guenther Steiner, the most talkative man in Formula One, and he cannot get his house in order.

And we haven't even mentioned the Rich Energy debacle, which has made the team a laughingstock of the entire motorsports world, not just Formula One.

From the start, Gene Haas has been talking about pulling out of Formula One because of the money he is losing and honestly, just shoot the horse and move on.

I don't care anymore. America never cared. Qualifying fifth in Austria only makes it worse because it shows this team could actually be competitive and yet it sits on 26 points, level with Alfa Romeo.

This was the project of a rich man with money to burn and I am ready for him to move on to some other hobby. Either find an American who is capable of running a race team or sell it to some Nigerian billionaire or maybe Honda can buy it and turn it into a factory operation.

What About Williams?
One team has not had a retirement this season and that is Williams. Williams has one point this season and it came in Germany with Robert Kubica.

It is still depressing to watch because Williams has the third most victories all-time amongst Formula One constructors and it cannot only scrape one point from 11 races despite having a reliable race car and that one point coming after two cars had 30-second penalties added to their race.

I am not sure if I should be happy for George Russell. I feel like the 21-year-old could be doing more with his career. I am happy for Robert Kubica because he got a point nearly eight and a half years after his most recent point. This was a driver who a decade ago could have been a regular race winner and maybe someone who could have challenged for the world championship. Just to see he was able to get a point out of what will largely be remembered as a trying season is something to be happy about.

Who Haven't We Mentioned?
Racing Point because who cares?

Antonio Giovinazzi because he has been disappointing.

Kimi Räikkönen because he is just there.

Pierre Gasly because he is the fourth best of the Red Bull drivers and none of the Red Bull drivers not named Max Verstappen should be in the second Red Bull seat. Honestly, it would be better for Red Bull to bring in Sébastien Buemi, Jean-Éric Vergne, Naoki Yamamoto or Alexander Rossi.

What is Next?
Hungary, which will like be a Mercedes romp because it is what Mercedes does after it gets egg on its face.

For example, last Sunday's German Grand Prix was only the seventh race since 2014 where Mercedes did not put a car on the podium. In the previous six instances, Mercedes won the following race five times, all five victories coming at the hands of Lewis Hamilton and the one time Mercedes didn't win, Hamilton finished second in the British Grand Prix last year after starting on pole position.

After Hungary is the summer break, a good chance for teams to relax and reset before the final portion of the season that features three back-to-backs.

Mercedes is four victories away from 100 grand prix victories and it would join Ferrari, McLaren and Williams as the only manufactures to hit the century mark. That is not a matter of if it happens in 2019 but when it happens. The earliest it could occur is under the lights of Singapore.

I think we are wondering if Ferrari can put together one race and get a victory and after Vettel's drive at Germany last Sunday, after the hellish year Ferrari has endured, I think we will see everything put right. I still think Ferrari is going to show signs of weakness and make mistakes and there will still be the tussle between Vettel and Leclerc for top billing in the organization. Even when it goes right it is still set up to go wrong.

The one depressing thing about this season is how top heavy it has been. The top five drivers have all scored over 100 points. The bottom 15 drivers have scored a combined 290 points. The top five have scored 832 points, 74.15 % of the points. To be fair, I don't know how this compares to previous seasons but when Gasly in sixth has less than half the points of Leclerc in fifth and you have nine drivers between 13-27 points scored through 11 races it shows a great disparity in the grid and that isn't going to change overnight.

McLaren is the best of the rest and even they are a great distance from getting a podium finish on pace. It is making for and interesting Constructors' Championship with McLaren set in fourth on 40 points but 16 points cover Scuderia Toro Rosso in fifth and Haas and Alfa Romeo, which are tied for eighth with Haas owning the tiebreaker. We talk about how important the Constructors' Championship in terms of paying the teams and Haas is toward the bottom but if it can string together some results it could find itself in the top five. Racing Point needs a good payday. Though these teams are not in the realm of competing for the podium they have a lot to play for in the middle of the field.

The other thing to keep an eye is the future of Valtteri Bottas. We all know Esteban Ocon is the man waiting in the wings. Ocon has been rumored to be heading to Haas or Williams but if Bottas is on the way out, Ocon is filling the second seat at Silver Arrows.

What is next for Bottas? Does Mercedes slot him back at Williams? Would he go to Haas? Haas has to shake up the driver line-up and I think both Grosjean and Magnussen are on the chopping block. Bottas would bring a level of success to the team that Haas has never seen before.

Outside of the second Mercedes seat and Haas, there doesn't seem to be a big shakeup on the horizon. Hamilton is safe. I don't think Ferrari is going to can either of its drivers. Ricciardo isn't leaving Renault. Verstappen isn't leaving Red Bull. I think we are more likely to see one Toro Rosso driver swap with Gasly.

There is no one big coming out. Nyck de Vries has been excellent in Formula Two this season but the former McLaren development driver doesn't seem to be on any team's radar. Nicholas Latifi and Luca Ghiotto have both been respectable in Formula Two. Latifi has run a few Friday practices for Williams. Ghiotto is unattached and looking to sports cars.

Outside of the European pipeline, the one name floating around is Super Formula and Super GT champion Naoki Yamamoto, who Honda loves, and he will get a few Friday practice outings with either Red Bull or Toro Rosso later this season. If Honda wants a Japanese driver on the grid, Yamamoto is the guy and Honda may be in a position of power if Red Bull feels no great tie to its three drivers not named Max Verstappen.

The final things to keep an eye for the rest of 2019 are the 2021 regulations, which will likely be brought up regularly between now and when they are finally released and the 2020 calendar because, while the Dutch Grand Prix is returning and the Vietnam Grand Prix is being introduced, we could see Mexican Grand Prix, German Grand Prix and Spanish Grand Prix disappear, although there have been a few reports Spain could remain on the schedule. We have 20 grand prix confirmed for 2020 and there were 21 races this year. There is room for one of the three to return but probably not two and definitely not all three.