Our final look back at predictions made nearly a year ago takes us to the mix bag of motorsports. From MotoGP to DTM, Indy Lights to World Rally, Formula E to V8 Supercars, a prediction or two were made for each series and now is the moment of truth to see what I got right and what I got wrong.
1. Valentino Rossi Retires
Got this one wrong and it appears The Doctor isn't going anywhere as Rossi signed with Yamaha through 2016 and believes he could fight for the title next year. He might be right. He ended 2014 second in the championship, picked up a victories at Misano and Phillip Island and finished ahead of his teammate Jorge Lorenzo in ten of 18 races. You can't count on Marc Márquez coming out and dominating in 2015 like he did in 2014. Rossi could go toe-to-toe with Márquez in 2015 for 18 rounds and leave us with a championship fight we will be talking about for decades to come.
2. The Spanish Renaissance Will Continue
Spaniards won 16 of 18 in MotoGP (13 at the hands of Marc Márquez), 11 of 18 in Moto2 and 7 of 18 in Moto3. They won all three titles with Esteve Rabat taking the Moto2 crown and Álex Márquez, younger brother of Marc, winning in Moto3. Marc Márquez had an forgettable season in MotoGP and you just have to wonder how it can get any better for Spain?
Besides Marc Márquez, they had Lorenzo win twice and Dani Pedrosa get a victory. The Espargaró of Pol and Aleix finished sixth and seventh in MotoGP with Aleix scoring his first career premier class podium at Aragón. Maverick Viñales finished third in Moto2 and is moving up to Suzuki's factory effort as they return to full-time MotoGP competition in 2015 and Aleix will join Viñales at Suzuki. Álex Rins and Efrén Vázquez finished third and fourth in Moto3.
Spaniards have eight of 25 spots on the tentative 2015 MotoGP grid. The next closest country in terms of representation is Italy with five and the United Kingdom with have three riders. While Spain has strength in numbers, promising talent from other parts of the globe are starting to bud and are ready to take on the armada. Jack Miller fell two points shy of taking the Moto3 title from Álex Márquez and the Australian will jump to MotoGP in 2015 on an "Open" class LCR Honda. Valentino Rossi is developing Romano Fenati in Moto3 and the young Italian won four races last year but didn't have the same kind of consistency as the title contenders. Expect that to change in 2015. Then there are the two young Brits currently on the MotoGP grid, Bradley Smith and Scott Redding. Smith was able to score a podium in 2014 and finished eighth in the championship on the Tech3 Yamaha which always seems to be in the mixer at the front. Redding finished 12th in his rookie season on an "Open" class Gresini Honda and finished in the points in 16 of 18 races, only Marc Márquez, Valentino Rossi, Andrea Dovizioso and Hiroshi Aoyama (surprise!) had more.
The armada is strong but it won't last forever.
3. Open Class Bikes Won't Be Threatening But Will Find Success
Mother nature helped Aleix Espargaró score the first podium for an "Open" class bike but the Spaniard was constantly in the points and ended up finishing seventh in the championship. We touched on Scott Redding but he finished 16 of 18 races in the points as a rookie, not bad considering he was on a "Open" class bike. To do Redding one better, Hiroshi Aoyama finished in the points in all but one race.
Aleix Espargaró carried the "Open" class flag in 2014 and with the additions of factory efforts from Suzuki and Aprillia, it will be much tougher for the "Open" class to try to make their way to the front but the class is filling out the grid and I am sure there will be a few instances where an "Open" class bike makes some waves in 2015.
4. On to DTM: The Favorites Are BMW
Marco Wittmann took the title in his sophomore season after winning four of ten races but Audi took the manufactures' title despite only winning the final two races of the season. The only BMW victory not to come at the hands of Wittmann was rookie Maxime Martin at Moscow.
Audi did put the most drivers in the top ten with five (Mattias Ekström, Mike Rockenfeller, Edoardo Mortara, Timo Scheider and Jaime Green) compared to BMW's three (Wittmann, Martin Tomczyk and Martin) and Mercedes-Benz's two (Christian Vietoris and Pascal Wehrlein). Mercedes might have won three races but those all fell into their lap. They had four podiums from a possible thirty, compared to Audi's 15 and BMW's 11.
Wittmann might have taken the title in 2014 but look for Audi to take control in 2015.
5. Paul di Resta Returns With Mercedes
He did return with Mercedes but with a less than ideal car, he couldn't return to his championship form that he left on in 2010. The Scotsman finished fourth on three occasions (Oschersleben, Nürburgring and Hockenheim 2) and those were his only finishes in the points in 2014. It was a trying time in 2014 for di Resta, who can only hope 2015 goes much better for the talented driver.
6. World Rally Championship: Volkswagen Dominance Continues
Volkswagen won 12 of 13 races and went 1-2-3 in the drivers' championship with Sébastien Ogier taking his second consecutive title ahead of Jari-Matti Latvala and Andreas Mikkelsen. The German manufacture scored 23 podiums but amazingly had only one 1-2-3 finish in 2014. That came at Rally Australia. The true power of the Polo R WRC dominance showed with 447 points in the manufactures' championship, 237 points clear of Citroën.
The lone round VW lost was Germany, the only round Ogier and Latvala retired from. Hyundai and Thierry Neuville was able to break through, each getting their first victories but outside of that one freak occurrence, everyone was trailing VW by a country mile.
Sébastien Loeb will make a WRC return at Monte-Carlo and it will be interesting to see if the greatest rally driver can beat the near unbeatable German manufacture. Either way, it looks as if the question isn't whether VW will win a third consecutive title in 2015, rather how much will they win their third title by?
7. Indy Lights: There Will Be More Than Ten Full-Time Entries
Grid sizes were nothing to brag about in Indy Lights in 2014 but the average grid size this past season was 10.928 cars. It was barely in double figures but only two of 14 races featured a single-digit grid. With the introduction of the IL-15 chassis, 2015 should have no problem drawing double figures, in fact, the first test for the new car had to be postponed due to the amount of interest.
The big addition in 2015 is Carlin Motorsport, the team with championship success in Formula Three, GP2, GP3 and Formula Renault 3.5. Andretti Autorsport and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports return with 8Star Motorsports and Conquest Racing also interested in entering the series in 2015. The once dying leg of the Road to Indy system is on the verge of experiencing a Renaissance.
8. V8 Supercars: Jamie Whincup Wins His Record-Setting Sixth Title
Nailed this one. Where does Whincup rank amongst the greatest Australian drivers of all-time? Of course Jack Brabham is at the top and you can't ignore Alan Jones, Mark Webber, Geoff Brabham and even Vern Schuppan. Will Power just won the IndyCar title while Daniel Ricciardo finished third in the Formula One World Championship.
I think you can argue that Whincup is one of the top ten Australians and possibly the best Australian that raced majority of their career domestically. Six title is a record and he has won the Bathurst 1000 four times, five off the all-time record set by Peter Brock and only five drivers have won The Great Race more than Whincup. The only active driver of the five with more Bathurst victories is Whincup's teammate Craig Lowndes.
At 31, Whincup has plenty of time to keep rewriting the record books but he also has plenty of time to go and chase glory elsewhere, whether it be attempting Le Mans or coming to America like Marcos Ambrose. I don't think Whincup is leaving V8SC anytime soon though. I think what ever he does internationally will be one-offs. Either way, Whincup is putting himself in the discussion of all-time great Australian drivers.
9. Formula E: Expect A Roller Coaster Ride
Through two races, all things have gone well. The only thing that has bitten Formula E is the fact they couldn't get a tenth race on the schedule in the middle of February.
Sure the TV broadcasts need some work. The announcers aren't loud enough. They are trying to overcompensate by turning up the microphones around the track to make the cars sound louder and the series is trying to be revolutionary by having a steady dance club beat play through out the broadcast but the on-track action hasn't been dreadful.
The racing improved from Beijing to Putrajaya and we will have to see how the race from Punta del Este goes this Saturday. The car swap on the pit stops needs some work but it has been interesting to see who has been able to drive these cars to perfection and be able to stretch an electrical charge longer than anyone else and who hasn't.
It's different and some motorsports fans won't like it just because it is different but just because it is different, doesn't mean it's bad.
10. World Touring Car Championship: Citroën Will Lead The Way
Got this one right as the French manufacture won 17 of 23 races. José María López stunned a few people as he took the title over his much more experienced WTCC teammate Yvan Muller and Sébastien Loeb. The Argentine won ten races on his way to the title as he defeated Muller by 126 points and Loeb by 167 points. I expect the French duo to close in on López but don't think for a second that López is a one trick pony. He won multiple championship in the TC 2000 Championship in his native Argentina and I expect him to be at the front of WTCC for years to come.
11. One Miscellaneous Prediction: Dario Franchitti Is Not Done Racing
He didn't race in 2014 but this prediction is for way down the road. It might be another three or four years but I still think Dario Franchitti will get back behind the wheel. It won't be in an IndyCar but I can envision him, Allan McNish and his brother Marino entering the Spa 24 Hours or the 24 Hours of Daytona when GTD adopts GT3 specifications. Franchitti seems like one of those who won't allow his final appearance in a race car be an accident that ended his career.
Le Mans winner and Indianapolis 500 runner-up Davy Jones suffered an injury in IndyCar testing and it appeared his career way over but he eventually got back behind the wheel of the car in Grand-Am competition.
Cristiano da Matta hit a deer and was in an induced coma but returned to race in Grand-AM and ALMS.
Then there is Alex Zanardi who ran the Blancpain Sprint Series this year and has raced in WTCC and even tested a Formula One car since the accident at Lausitzring that cost the Italian his legs.
There is no way Franchitti sees what Zanardi is doing and is going to let a concussion keep him from getting behind the wheel of a car again. Yes, concussions are serious and once you get one, you are more prone to another but I think Franchitti will take all the precautions into account and make a return the correct way and end his career on his terms.
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