Friday, December 19, 2014

2015 Et Cetera Predictions

After posting NASCAR predictions two days ago, it is now time to look into the mixed bag of motorsports. Twelve series will be featured with one prediction for each series, from two-wheels to four, world championships to regional series.

1. MotoGP: The Title Will Come Down To The Final Race
After Marc Márquez dominated 2014, setting a record for most victories in a single season with thirteen and winning the first ten races, look for the Catalan rider to experience a much more difficult title fight in 2015. Yamaha came on strong in the second half of the season with Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo each winning two of the final six rounds. Rossi seems rejuvenated after finishing second in the world championship and is signed on through 2016 as is Lorenzo. I expect Márquez to receive quite a challenge from those two and he won't be rewriting records unless he comes out with his third consecutive title.

2. V8 Supercars: Marcos Ambrose Does Not Finish in the Top Ten of the Championship
Don't expect the two-time champion to return to his winning ways right off the bat. After nine years in NASCAR, Ambrose returns to a V8 Supercars series going through a bit of an identity crisis. Ford is on their way out, the series is opening the door to four or six-cylinder turbocharged engines and Holden is clear top dog. Add to it that Dick Johnson Racing, the team Ambrose is going to race for in a partnership with Team Penske hasn't been the same since James Courtney left after winning the 2010 title. In the four seasons since DJR has won one race and hasn't had a driver finish in the top ten of the championship. I don't expect that to change in 2015. Sure, Ambrose will have a few good runs but don't expect him to be at the front going toe-to-toe with Jamie Whincup, Craig Lowndes, Mark Winterbottom, Scott McLaughlin and Shane Van Gisbergen every race weekend.

3. Indy Lights: Grids Average Over 13 Entries
The series is on the verge of a Renaissance with the introduction of the IL-15 chassis. After struggle the last four seasons to get respectable grids, it appears that won't be a problem in 2015. So many are interested in the series that they had to push the first initial test back a month to give engine manufacture AER more time to meet the demand. Old stalwarts, Schmidt Peterson, Andretti Autosport, Belardi Auto Racing and Team Moore are slated to return with Carlin Motorsport, 8Star Motorsports, Juncos Racing and Conquest Racing just some of the names that will likely join the grid. After being on the verge of extinction, Indy Lights has found new life. Having followed the series for many years and seeing where it was not too long ago, I cannot wait for the start of the 2015 season.

4. DTM: The Russian Round Doesn't Happen
The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters series always has a round on the initial schedule that falls through. Normally it is in China but who knows what it is going to happen over the next few months with Russia. Last year, DTM went to Moscow Raceway despite the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine while the World Superbike Championship decided not to visit the country. Russia is on the 2015 WSBK schedule but I just have a strange feeling that between now and those scheduled rounds, something happens and the DTM does not head to Russia. What track would replace the Russian round? It would be nice to see a return to Brands Hatch (that won't happen) or Spa (who is against more races at Spa?). Imola would be an interesting place for a DTM race. Maybe they should come stateside. Who wouldn't want to see DTM cars going through the corkscrew at Laguna Seca?

5. Super GT: Lexus Retakes GT500 Title
Despite winning half the races in 2014, Lexus lost both the drivers' and teams' championships to NISMO but I expect Lexus to retain the title in 2015. If Team Petronas TOM's keeps the combination of Kazuki Nakajima and James Rossiter, I would pencil them in as championship favorites as they have won four rounds over the last two season including the 2014 Suzuka 1000km. Let's not forget the second Team Petronas TOM's entry of Andrea Caldarelli and Daisuke Ito who finished runner-up in 2014. Another thing that might cause NISMO to take a step back is Nissan's expansion in the LMP1 of the FIA World Endurance Championship. Next season is the perfect time for Lexus to take advantage and retake the title.

6. World Superbike/World SuperSport: P.J. Jacobsen Takes His Game to the Next Level
The American impressed in his first year in World SuperSport, finishing sixth in the championship, scoring 99 points with two podiums and a fastest lap. I think 2015 will be a big year for the New York-native. Hopefully, he breaks through for his first victory in WSS, a series an American has never won in. After all, Jacobsen is the United States only hope when it comes to international motorcycle racing as Nicky Hayden is aging and Colin Edwards has joined Ben Spies in retirement.

7. World Rally: Sébastien Loeb Wins a Rally
He has only committed to the Rallye Monte-Carlo as of now but maybe Citroën can convince him to run a few more rounds after Volkswagen used the French manufacture to mop the floor. We know Loeb is an incredible talent and he might be Citroën's only hope to beat VW heads up (sorry Kris Meeke and Mads Østberg).

8. World Touring Car Championship: Citroën Wins Less Than Seventeen Races
The French manufacture won 17 of 23 races in 2014 but I expect Honda and Lada to provide more of a challenge in 2015. They were coming on strong at the end of 2014, as Citroën won only three of the final eight races after winning 14 of the first 15. Citroën is increasing their numbers, adding two with the addition of Sébastien Loeb Racing to their factory team of José María López, Yvan Muller and Loeb. I think Citroën will still come out on top but it won't be as much of a walk of a park as 2014.

9. Formula E: At Least Five New Drivers Make a Start
Teams are changing drivers like they are underwear. Andretti Autosport has had a different driver line-up for each round of the 2014-15 FIA Formula E Championship. Aguri has used four different drivers in three rounds. China Racing has already had to use a substitute because of a scheduling conflict. As the season enters the 2015 portion of the schedule, a few conflict are on the horizon. Argentina is the same weekend as the Dubai 24 Hour. I don't expect many, if any conflicts but it's alway possible. The Miami round is the same weekend Formula One is in Australia while Long Beach is the same weekend as Bahrain. The Monaco round is the same weekend of the Spanish Grand Prix and IndyCar's Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The Berlin round is the day before the Le Mans test day and the same weekend as the Belle Isle IndyCar weekend and DTM weekend at Lausitzring. António Félix da Costa could do both. There aren't many tracks closer to Berlin than Lausitz. The final round of the Formula E season in London is the same weekend as DTM at the Norisring, IMSA at Watkins Glen and IndyCar at Fontana. Let's see what happens but expect a few new faces in 2015.

10. Super Formula: There Will Be At Least One First Time Winner
If the drivers from testing are any sign of who could be joining the grid in 2015, Super Formula might be the series I most want to watch in the new year. Possibly joining a grid that already includes Le Mans winners André Lotterer and Loïc Duval, former Formula One drivers Kazuki Nakajima, Narain Karthikeyan and Vitantonio Liuzzi are former Caterham punching bag Kamui Kobayashi, former GP2 champion Fabio Leimer, former Formula Renault 3.5 champion, FIA WEC LMP2 World Champion, Le Mans class winner and IndyCar driver Bertrand Baguette and Nissan-supported Jann Mardenborough all took part in testing from Okayama. Anyone of those four could get a win in 2015.

11. European Le Mans Series: Porsche Wins a Race in a GT Category
The European Le Mans Series GT classes were dominated by Ferrari in 2014 with the Italian manufacture sweeping all five LMGTE victories and taking four of five GTC victories with the Marc VDS Racing BMW winning the final round of the GTC season at Estoril. I don't expect Porsche to be completely shut out again. They will get a victory somewhere in one of the two classes.

12. Asian Le Mans Series: Grid Size Grows Under ACO Control
After struggling to get double-digit figures for it's first two seasons, the Asian Le Mans Series has been taken over by the Automobile Club de l'Ouest and hopefully that gives that series a swift kick in the ass. Hopefully no more stupid scheduling blunders with the series going to Shanghai the same weekend the FIA WEC is at Fuji or a Super GT round, preventing GT3 teams from running. The ACO is going to get this series pointing in the right direction.

Two down, three to go on the predictions. Next set of predictions will come on Monday morning. Have a good weekend.