The penultimate set of predictions looks at the 2015 Formula One season. Lewis Hamilton is coming off his second world championship after winning 11 of 19 races and holding off Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg by 67 points. The German team dominated the season on their way to their first constructors' championship. With 2014 behind us, it is time to focus on 2015 and try to figure out what the worldwide tour of automobiles and luxury will produce.
1. Mercedes Stays in Control
Back-to-back constructors' championships. You heard it hear first. I think Mercedes will win majority of the races and keep the crown in Stuttgart. They still have Hamilton. They still have Rosberg. After the dogfight between the Brit and German in 2014, I don't think their rivalry will boil over and cause infighting. They want to beat each other but they respect one another and know that in the end they have to get the best result for the team as a whole and not be selfish. Mercedes will win less than 80% of the races but it will take an awful lot for someone to knock the Silver Arrows from the top of the mountain.
2. Daniel Ricciardo and Williams Give Mercedes a Little More Run For Their Money
The only non-Mercedes driver to win in 2014 was Daniel Ricciardo as the Australian won three grands prix on his way to finishing third in the world championship. Red Bull improved over the course of 2014 and the RB10 played into Ricciardo's driving style. Williams did not win in 2014 but scored nine podiums between Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa as the Finn finished fourth in the world championship ahead of former world champions Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso and the Brazilian finished eighth ahead of former Jenson Button. I think Ricciardo will stay in contention for the title deeper into 2015 than 2014 and I think Williams gets a victory but, as stated above, I think it will be difficult for anyone to overthrow the duo of Hamilton and Rosberg.
3. Fernando Alonso Finishes Ahead of Sebastian Vettel
Originally this prediction was going to be Alonso wins before Vettel does but I don't think either will win in 2015. The Honda engine is still developing and there are worries about if the car will be competitive when the season starts but compare the mindset at McLaren vs. Ferrari and you have to think McLaren will work through it. Ferrari lacks leadership at the present moment. Alonso left Ferrari looking for green pastures. He has a teammate in Jenson Button that he will be able to get more out of than Kimi Räikkönen. Ferrari is rolling the dice on signing the most successful driver on the grid and having him turn the ship around. I don't like that gamble. If Ferrari wants to get back on top, they are going to have to be united on all fronts.
4. There Will Not Be 20 Cars on the Grid in Australia
Caterham's future is up in the air. The team formerly known as Marussia, now technically Manor could try to stay in Formula One but I don't see them getting off the ground. Caterham is the most likely of the two to make it to Melbourne but even if they do, will they have a car capable of being within 107% of the fastest time from Q1? Whether only nine teams show up for the 2015 season opener or ten teams show and someone fails to qualify, less than 20 cars will roll off when the lights go out at Albert Park.
5. There Will Not Be 21 Races in 2015
I think we all know the Korean Grand Prix is a political tool on the schedule as teams try to negotiate for the engine limit to increase to five per entry for the season from the originally planned four. If Korea does somehow happen, what about the possibility Germany doesn't host a Formula One grand prix for the first time since 1960? Whether it be the Nürburgring or Hockenheimring, someone has always had a problem with the sanctioning fee and the local governments are against public funding going toward the race. The crowd at Hockenheim this past July was disappointing considering the defending world champion was German, Mercedes was leading the constructors' championship, Rosberg was leading the drivers' championship and the country was fresh off a World Cup title. France hasn't hosted a Formula One grand prix since 2008. Who is to say Germany couldn't lose their race? Then there is Mexico as Autódromo Hermanos Rodriguez is being renovated. Could construction be delayed and the race fall off the schedule? It is possible. We will see a record number or races run in 2014 but that record won't be set at 21.
6. Neither Toro Rosso Driver Scores More Than 22 Points
Twenty-two is the amount of points now-Ferrari test driver Jean-Éric Vergne scored in his final season with the team. Seventeen-year old Max Verstappen and 20-year old Carlos Sainz, Jr. combine for zero career Formula One starts as both get thrown into the deep end. Daniil Kyvat scored eight points with STR in his rookie season as a 20-year old fresh off a GP3 title. Verstappen finished third in FIA European Formula Three and Sainz, Jr. won the Formula Renault 3.5 title. Kevin Magnussen won the 2013 FR 3.5 and scored 55 points but there is a big difference between McLaren and STR. Since the adoption of the 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 system, the only time an STR driver has scored over 22 points was Jaime Alguersuari in 2011 when he scored 26 points. He was subsequently fired. It could be a long year for STR.
7. Sauber Scores at Least One Point
After being held to naught with Adrian Sutil and Esteban Gutiérrez, Sauber has hired sophomore Marcus Ericsson and rookie Felipe Nasr to compete in 2015. The Swiss team had a few opportunities late in the year for a crucial point but it ultimately proved to be elusive. I think Sauber will be a much better opportunity for Ericsson, who spent his rookie season at Caterham. He nearly finished in the points at Monaco and finished five consecutive races before the team let him go when they missed the rounds in Austin and São Paulo. Nasr spent 2014 as a Williams test driver and finished second in the 2014 GP2 championship to Jolyon Palmer. I think a tenth place finish will fall their way in 2014 and with the grid possibly featuring less than 20 full-time entries, over half the field could score points in each race. You'd have to think that one Sauber could finish in the top half of the field at least once in 2015.
8. At Least One Lotus Driver Finishes Ahead of a Force India Driver
This means Romain Grosjean or Pastor Maldonado will finish ahead of Nico Hülkenberg and/or Sergio Pérez. With Lotus switching to Mercedes power in 2015, I expect 2015 to be a complete 180º compared to their 2014 season. Hülkenberg is the best of the four drivers but I think Grosjean will be able to finish ahead of Pérez. The question is how will the wishy-washy Venezuelan finish? In his four seasons in Formula One, Maldonado's championship point totals have been 1, 45, 1 and 2. Twenty-five of his 49 career points came in one race, his 2012 Spanish Grand Prix victory. Maybe a switch in engine supplier will benefit Maldonado but don't hold your breath.
9. Virtual Safety Car is Used At Least Nine Times in 2015
In response to Jules Bianchi's accident at Suzuka, Formula One will adopt virtual safety car, which will enforce drivers to drop to a certain speed limit while entering a double waved yellow zone on the race track because a fellow competitor or track marshall may be in danger but the incident does not require the deployment of the safety car. The way I look at VSC is the stewards will now be enforcing local yellows rule after years of letting drivers police themselves and assuming they would voluntarily slow down. I think the stewards will use VSC as much as they possibly can to prevent any future accidents such as Bianchi's. Originally the prediction was going to be that VSC will be used at least six times but I think it will become all the rage with the stewards and it is something we will see a lot of in 2015.
10. A Team on the 2015 Grid Announces Their Intention to Leave F1 or is Sold Prior to the end of the Calendar Year
With all the financial difficulties teams are dealing with heading into 2015, I would not be surprised if we see teams going the way of Caterham and Marussia or executives looking to get out while they still can. While I think Sauber will get at least one point in 2015, one point isn't going save the team. Sauber is struggling and if things don't sufficiently turn around, they could be done. Formula One could price out Vijay Mallya and he may no longer desire to run a team if he doesn't feel it is worth it and Force India could be up for sale before we know it. What if things don't turn around for Lotus? Genii Capital could sell that team at the drop of a hat if the results aren't good enough. Formula One is at a shaky point where one misstep could cause a landslide that further damages the series and leaves it scrambling, trying to find a way to fill the grid.
11. A Team Principal and/or Technical Director is Fired During the Season
This very well could be at Ferrari considering the Scuderia went through three technical directors in 2014. I don't have high hopes that Ferrari will be at the standard that the top brass wants the team to be at and Maurizio Arrivabene seat will get hot very quickly if they are being beat consistently by Red Bull and Williams for another season and if McLaren catches lightning in a bottle with Honda and starts posting better results than Ferrari, Arrivabene will not be able to save his job. What if McLaren fall apart in their first year back with Honda? Éric Boullier could be sacked in a flash. What if Red Bull regresses even more? Christian Horner could be axed. Someone will not make it to the end of 2015.
12. We Hear Rumors of at Least Two Countries that Have Never Hosted F1 Before, Getting a Race in the Near Future
As long as Bernie Ecclestone is in charge, he will chase money regardless to where the check is coming from. Greece was reportedly interested. Thailand was on the radar for a while. If I had to make a guess on what country is the next to be rumored to host a Formula One race, I would say Kazakhstan and this isn't a Borat joke, I am dead serious. The country is trying to get the 2022 Winter Olympics bid and are competing against Beijing, China and I would not be surprised to hear they are interested in Formula One because it would be a big international event and it would show the IOC that the country can draw other forms of world sport, bettering their odds of winning the bid (but we all know the best way to win the 2022 bid is by lining the pockets of voters to the point they are sweating through the cash layer and their suits). Africa is an untapped source of possible cash for Ecclestone. Who is to say he wouldn't accept a check from an oil tycoon from Nigeria or Angola?MotoGP is rumored to be heading to Chile. I don't see why Formula One couldn't head there. Each year, we hear rumored races in parts of the globe that make you scratch your head. I expect 2015 to be no different.
One set of predictions remain. I am sure you can use process of elimination to figure out what predictions they will be. Feel free to check out the NASCAR, Et Cetera or sports car predictions if you have yet to do so or if you want to read them again. I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend. The final 2015 predictions will come Monday.
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