Monday, December 22, 2014

2015 Sports Car Predictions

Our third of five predictions posts focuses on sports car racing. We will take a look at the height of sports car racing, the FIA World Endurance Championship; America's top division of sports car racing, IMSA's United SportsCar Championship; America's emerging GT3 series, Pirelli World Challenge and the world's premier GT3 series, the Blancpain Sprint and Endurance Series. We will start with the world championship.

1. FIA WEC: All Four LMP1 Manufactures Win in 2015
Toyota, Audi and Porsche all won in 2014 and I don't see a reason why to think any of the three won't win in 2015. In 2014, Toyota dominated, Audi won Le Mans again and Porsche's year of development paid off in the final round at Interlagos. Audi will experience a little shakeup with the retirement of Tom Kristensen but the trio of André Lotterer, Benoît Tréluyer and Marcel Fässler have proven they can take over the reigns as the leaders in the team and they have the talented Lucas di Grassi and Loïc Duval under contract. Toyota will return with world champions Anthony Davidson and Sébastien Buemi and it appears Alexander Wurz and Mike Conway will also be full-time drivers. Porsche will keep their 2014 driver lineup intact for 2015. Nissan returns to the top flight of sports car racing in 2015 and while they have yet to announce their drivers, you have to think they will be capable of competing with the other three manufactures by the end of the season.

2. Extreme Speed Motorsports is the LMP2 Favorites
The former IMSA team will take on the world in 2015 and they are doing so with two of the best driver line-ups LMP2 regulations will allow. Scott Sharp and Ryan Dalziel will be joined by arguably the best silver-rated driver, 2014 GTE-Am champion David Heinemeier Hansson while Johannes van Overbeek and Ed Brown will be joined by two-time Grand-Am Daytona Prototype champion Jon Fogarty. Comparing the ESM lineup to the 2014 FIA WEC LMP2 lineups from SMP Racing, G-Drive Racing and KCMG, those four teams appear as if they will have to step up their game in 2015. Add possible LMP2 editions of Morand Racing, Jota Sport and Signatech-Alpine from the European Le Mans Series, the Pro-Am prototype class might provide the best competition in the FIA WEC in 2015.

3. Ferrari and Gianmaria Bruni Do Not Win a Third Consecutive World Endurance Cup for GT Drivers and Manufactures
The Italian manufacture and driver has won back-to-back championships but Porsche and Aston Martin should be stepping up their game in 2015. Porsche's provisional 2015 drivers include Frédéric Makowiecki, Richard Lietz, Patrick Pilet and Michael Christensen. Makowiecki had a solid 2014 season but had had a rotating driver lineup as a distraction. He and Pilet won at Shanghai and finished second at Interlagos. Darren Turner and Stefan Mücke won two races for Aston Martin in 2014, a year after losing the 2013 title after retiring in the final round of that season as Bruni went on to win the race and the title. Ferrari has won every title in the FIA WEC-era but eventually that will come to an end and I expect someone new on top of the mountain at the end of 2015. 

4. IMSA: LMP2 Cars Go Winless
I was thinking this before ESM decided to go to the FIA WEC and before Michael Shank Racing announced they would field Ligier-Hondas and I am going to stick with it. Balance of performance is set up in favorite of the Daytona Prototypes and seeing as how there will be less LMP2 cars on the 2015 grid, it will all but be a given they will continue to dominate in 2015. Action Express Racing will return with two new Corvette C7-style DP bodywork as Christian Fittipaldi and João Barbosa look to defend their title. Ganassi returns as the de facto Ford factory operation and Joey Hand replaces Memo Rojas as co-driver to Scott Pruett in the #01. Wayne Taylor Racing should be strong with Jordan and Ricky Taylor in control of the #10. ESM will run the NAEC rounds but other than that, the only full-time LMP2 entries are Shank and the two Mazda SKYACTIV-Ds as OAK Racing will not return stateside in 2015. It just doesn't make sense to run an LMP2 car in the current climate of IMSA. Maybe in a few years but not now. If you own an LMP2 car it makes more sense to run FIA WEC like ESM or ELMS like Krohn Racing will be doing in 2015. 

5. Corvette Takes the GTLM Title
With no SRT Vipers to worry about, Corvette could cruise to the 2015 title. Porsche will be back with a factory support team but after starting 2014 on fire, winning at Daytona and Sebring, the factory 911 RSRs cooled off with only three podiums between the two cars for the remainder of the season. The Team Falken Tire Porsche however carried the weight, winning Petit Le Mans for a second consecutive year. The Rahal Letterman Lanigan BMWs went winless in 2014 but did have four runner-up finishes and six total podiums. BMW will have Lucas Luhr replace Andy Priaulx as the Brit becomes BMW's lead driver in their ELMS GTE program. Porsche will promote Porsche Supercup champion Earl Bamber to their IMSA factory effort as Jörg Bergmeister moves to the IMSA program from FIA WEC. Nick Tandy and Patrick Pilet will run the second factory Porsche. Corvette appears to be have the combinations of Antonio García and Jan Magnussen and Tommy Milner and Oliver Gavin return for 2015. García and Magnussen won four consecutive rounds before letting the title slip through their hands as the Viper team stepped up their game. I expect Corvette to have learned from the mistakes of 2014. 

6. The TRG-Aston Martin Wins a GTD Race
With James Davison and Christina Nielsen hired to drive TRG's Vantage GT3, I expect the duo to be able to get a victory while going against the difficult GTD line-up. Despite defending champions Turner Motorsport leaving the series to focus on Pirelli World Challenge, Alex Job Racing, Scuderia Corsa, Paul Miller Racing and Magnus Racing will all be their to provide stiff competition. Davison is one of he most under appreciated drivers in the United States and Nielsen had a decent 2014 season in Porsche GT3 Cup USA. These two winning may surprise a few but it certainly won't surprise me. 

7. PWC: Cadillac Does Not Win the Title
Johnny O'Connell won his third consecutive PWC championship in 2014 but all three of his victories came in the first six races. Andy Pilgrim went winless in 2014 and had four runner-up finishes as he finished fourth in the championship. The other manufactures have caught up to Cadillac and are ready to usurp them on top of the PWC landscape. Mike Skeen and CRP Racing Audi made a valiant challenge to O'Connell, forcing the championship to go to the final round at Miller. EFFORT Racing Porsche won three races between Nick Tandy and Ryan Dalziel and if they can hire a full-time driver of that quality, they could challenge for the title. Let's not forget the Dyson Racing Bentleys, which picked up their first victory at Miller with Guy Smith and Butch Leitzinger picked up two podiums and five top-fives despite the car starting mid-season. Cadillac has to step up their game in 2015 if they hope to win a fourth consecutive title.

8. At Least Seven Different Manufactures Get a Win in the GT Class
Eight manufactures (Lamborghini, Cadillac, Ferrari, Audi, Porsche, Dodge, Bentley and McLaren) all scored victories in the 2014 PWC season and I think seven is a realistic amount that could score victories in 2015. Let's mark down Cadillac, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari and Bentley as locks. Let's add BMW as Turner Motorsport, who move to PWC fresh off a IMSA GTD title. Robert Thorne of K-Pax Racing scored McLaren's first PWC victory in the final race of 2014 and will upgrade to the 650S GT3, which debuted at the Gulf 12 Hours last weekend in a partnership with Flying Lizard Motorsports. McLaren could be another manufacture to be on the top step of the podium. Speaking of upgrades, Reiter Engineering plan on bringing the Lamborghini Gallardo Extenso GT3 to PWC. Tomáš Enge won the 2014 season opener in Lamborghini but the Czech driver competed in only one round after St. Petersburg and Lamborghini had only two top ten finishes for the remainder of the season. Acura announced Ryan Eversely will be joining Peter Cunningham in a second RTR TLX-GT and there is the possibility of Andretti Autosport fielding Nissans but seeing as how the New Year is a matter of days away, I doubt we see the Andretti fielding cars in 2015. Despite that, there are plenty of manufactures that could win and we didn't even mention a possible Conquest Racing Mercedes SLS AMG GT3. If you want to see a diversity of manufactures winning, PWC is the series for you in the New Year.

9. There is a New GTS Champion
Lawson Aschenbach has won back-to-back PWC GTS titles but had to make a late season comeback and benefitted from the Kia teammates of Mark Wilkins and Nic Jönsson collapsing in the final few rounds of 2014 but don't expect that to happen again in 2015. Jack Baldwin ended up finishing second with three victories, one fewer than Aschenbach but had eight podiums, the same as the champion. The veteran Baldwin should provide Aschenbach a formidable challenge. Dean Martin won three races driving a Ford Mustang Boss 302 for Rehagen Racing but inconsistency kept him from challenging for the title. Add to the GTS mix a return of Bob Stallings Racing with Jon Fogarty driving a Hyundai Genesis Coup but what could cost Fogarty a shot at a title is FIA WEC duty as the Sonoma PWC round conflicts with FIA WEC at the Nürburgring. Third consecutive titles is not impossible as we have seen Johnny O'Connell do it in GT but I don't see Aschenbach duplicating the feat.

10. Blancpain GT: Bentley Wins a Blancpain Title
With defending Blancpain Sprint Series champions HTP Motorsport switching from Mercedes to Bentley, they provide the British manufactures best opportunity at silverware. The M-Sport Bentleys won two of five Blancpain Endurance Series rounds in 2014 but had poor runs in the Spa 24 Hours and Nürburgring kill their title hopes. The manufacture will not get a better opportunity to knockoff Audi than in 2015.

11. The Moscow Blancpain Sprint Series Race Does Not Happen
The same way in how I don't think the DTM will got run a race at the permanent Moscow Raceway outside the city, I don't see the BSS round on the streets of Russia's capital coming to fruition. Expect a replacement round at Zandvoort or Slovakiaring or somewhere else in Europe.

12. A non-German Manufacture Wins the Spa 24 Hours
German manufactures have won five consecutive Spa 24 Hours and occupied the top five in the 2014 edition. We covered Bentley as a potential championship contenders and winning the Spa 24 Hours would be a step in the right direction for a title in BES. McLaren provides the next best challenge to the like of Audi, Mercedes, Porsche and BMW as the 650S GT3 had a sensational debut at the Gulf 12 Hours. Ferrari hasn't won the Spa 24 Hours since 2004 and you can expect AF Corse to enter a car or two.

Three down, two to go. Both will come after Christmas, one of which will be a Boxing Day special. Over Christmas feel free to read the NASCAR and Et Cetera predictions. Stay tuned on Friday for the penultimate set of predictions.