Tuesday, December 2, 2014

2014 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

For the penultimate time we look back at predictions made last December and this time we look at sports car racing, from World Endurance Championship to IMSA and Pirelli World Challenge. I got a few big ones correct.

1. Porsche Wins Le Mans With Mark Webber
Unfortunately, it wasn't to be as Audi won the French classic for a fifth consecutive time and thirteenth time in the last fifteen years. Porsche and the #20 of Webber, Timo Bernhard and Brendon Hartley were close, taking the lead with just under three hours to go only to have mechanical issues not only end their chance at victory but forced the car to be unable to take the checkered flag. 

Porsche did end 2014 on a great note with the 919 Hybrid getting it's maiden victory at the hands of Marc Lieb, Neel Jani and Romain Dumas and the victory got the #14 into third in the championship. They really stepped up their game in the final half of the season with the #14 scoring a podium in each of the final three races and the #20 finishing on the podium in two of final four races. The two 919 Hybrids combined to take the final three pole positions.

While their German brethren took victory, Porsche's first outing at Circuit de la Sarthe with the 919 Hybrid was impressive and they should be a contender come 2015 as they look to dethrone Audi and hold off Toyota and the returning Nissan.  A victory would create some space in the all-time win category between Porsche and Audi as Porsche searches for their 17th win in the twice-around-the-clock classic.

2. Tom Kristensen Retires
Got that one right. Back it December, after McNish retire, it just felt Kristensen had nothing left to prove and 2014 was going to be it. He was going to give it one more go for a tenth Le Mans victory and one shot to defend his title. The season wasn't great for the Dane. Toyota came out of the gate firing on all cylinders. Audi's success was at the hands of the second wave, André Lotterer, Marcel Fässler and Benoît Tréluyer. Kristensen did end on the podium, just not the top step as he finished third in his final career race. 

Kristensen leaves Audi in good hands. Beside the three mentioned above, they have Lucas di Grassi and Loïc Duval to carry the torch and I expect someone from within be promoted to succeed Mr. Le Mans. My money would be on Filipe Albuquerque but who knows? Jenson Button might be a free agent and turns 35 years old in January. He very well could spend a decade at Audi, writing another chapter not only for the famed Four Rings but his stellar career.

3. Audi Promote Within to Replace Allan McNish
Got another one as di Grassi went from third car at Spa and Le Mans to full-time, championship driver. The Brazilian had a good first season but you expect he wants to improve in 2015. It's hard to believe di Grassi only had one season in Formula One and it was with Virgin Racing in their maiden season. Sports cars is littered with drivers who Formula One missed on and guys who could probably beat half the drivers who were on the grid at Abu Dhabi just over a week ago. 

From di Grassi to Lotterer, Buemi to Davidson, Jani to Hartley; each of the LMP1 manufactures have Formula One-caliber driver combinations and I expect Nissan to have the same when they join WEC in 2015. If people paid attention to the talented drivers filling WEC instead of the grotesque spending of Formula One, then the former might usurp the latter as most popular motorsports series in the world.

4. Bob Stallings Racing Wins 24 Hours of Daytona
Daytona couldn't have gotten much further than what I predicted for Bob Stallings Racing. We all know about the accident with the Risi Competizione Ferrari and we all know about the recovery Memo Gidley has been making this year. The team was cut down to just the North American Endurance Championship races (Daytona, Sebring, Watkins Glen, Petit Le Mans) at the beginning of 2014 and the accident was the final in the coffin for the "Red Dragon" that once was on top of the Daytona Prototype world. 

We lose teams every year but this one hurt. Bob Stallings Racing was a popular team, hired two talented junior Formula drivers that IndyCar passed on in Jon Fogarty and Alex Gurney and turned them into sports car superstars. If only those two were born twenty years earlier. Then they might have had a shot at IndyCar as well as decorated sports car careers but it wasn't meant to be. Hopefully we will see Fogarty and Gurney at Daytona and hopefully Gidley is back behind the wheel of a car racing in 2015.

5. TUSC Will Have A Few Events Where Class Limits Cause Headaches
It wasn't class limits that caused headaches, it was balance of performance. From prototypes to GTLM, BoP annoyed more than a few individuals through out the season. Aston Martin only ran Daytona and wasn't seen again. OAK Racing and Extreme Speed Motorsports each had victories slip through their hands as the Daytona Prototypes had a significant advantage on the straightaways at Sebring and Watkins Glen. Pickett Racing even shut down after two rounds but I have a feeling that had more to do with off-track activities than BoP. Let's hope these problem will be alleviated in 2015.

6. Nissan ZEOD RC Will Complete All 24 Hours at Le Mans
This was optimism at it's finest. I thought Nissan would have come out with a well tested machine and leave the LMP1 field shaking in their boots as they prepare to go full-time in the class come2015. Instead, they struggled to get to Le Mans and ultimately could only run five laps, the first car to retire from the 2014 edition of the French classic.

My question is what is the purpose of Garage 56 if the car is only going to compete in one round? The DeltaWing was fortunate to have Don Panoz jump behind it and run the car in ALMS and IMSA but the ZEOD RC appears as if it will never turn a wheel of competition again. It's one thing to be the first car to run Circuit de la Sarthe competely under electric power but if that's it's only claim to fame, was it really worth it? These Garage 56 entries need more than one race. They should get a position on the full-time WEC grid and use the eight rounds to develop the car and show what can be done with the current technology when given time to develop. Innovation does not succeed out of the box. It needs time to be nurtured into a successful product.

7. Mid-Ohio Will Receive A Sports Car Date For 2015
Mid-Ohio will not return but Lime Rock Park will as it replaces Indianapolis on the IMSA schedule. Pirelli World Challenge will go to Mid-Ohio but that is as a support race to IndyCar. I was talking about a sports car headliner. Maybe 2016.

8. Pirelli World Challenge Will Continue to Grow
They gained two full-time Bentley entries in 2014 and Guy Smith was able to get the Continental GT3 it's maiden victory at Miller Motorsports Park on his birthday nonetheless. Robert Thorne picked up the McLaren MP4-12C GT3's first victory in the second race from MMP. Each class, GT and GTS, consistently had over 20 cars showing up each weekend and the field will continue to grow in 2015 as the series has added the GT Cup class for Porsche 911 GT3s. Not to forget mentioning Andretti Autosport is looking to field Nissans in 2015. 

9. Ferrari Will Continue To Look Toward A Future in LMP1
It was all looking more and more likely that Ferrari was going to return to LMP1 in June when Fernando Alonso waved the Tricolour to start the 24 Hours of Le Mans and Luca di Montezemolo was on the grounds. Rumors were swirling that Ferrari was heading to the WEC but would first run Garage 56 as a precursor to a full-fledged effort. Nearly six months later, Ferrari is completely up in the air. Alonso is gone, di Montezemolo is gone. Ferrari's Formula One effort is scrambling after firing  team principal Marco Mattiacci, the man who replaced Stefano Domenicali seven months earlier.

Ferrari is trying to figure out how to get back on the top of Formula One. Unfortunately it appears we won't see them in LMP1 or Garage 56 in 2015 or for sometime to come.