1. We Will See a Major Rule Change in One or All Three Series
I am not quite sure what it might be but NASCAR will come up with something. Maybe it is rewarding drivers who win races during the Chase, giving them a slight bonus when they advance to the next round or maybe it's adopting a Chase format to the Grand National and Truck Series. NASCAR will do something. Maybe they will continue to tinker with qualifying. Who knows.
2. Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray Both Win a Cup Race
The Ganassi drivers looked better than most Chase drivers in the final ten races and Larson was inching ever closer to a victory in 2014. He didn't break through but the 2014 Rookie of the Year has a full year of experience under his belt and that come to his advantage. McMurray had 13 top tens in 2014, over half (seven) were top five finishes and the Missourian also scored two pole positions. He is always at the front of restrictor plate races (five of his seven victories are at Daytona or Talladega) and his other two victories came at Charlotte. So McMurray has six golden opportunities to get a victory in 2015.
3. Joe Gibbs Racing Wins Less Than Five Races
The Toyota team won two races all of 2014 and those were the only two victories for the Japanese manufacture in Cup last year. Matt Kenseth finished seventh in the 2014 championship but went winless after picking up six victories in 2013. The team has expanded to four cars with the addition of Carl Edwards but we have seen teams expand and then struggle (Richard Childress Racing I am looking at you). Chevrolet has power in numbers and Ford has Team Penske. Gibbs took a big step back in 2014 and were fortunate to have Denny Hamlin championship eligible entering the final race. I expect them to win more than two races but I don't think the team will as dominate as Penske was in 2014.
4. Darrell Wallace, Jr. Makes His Cup Series Debut
Speaking of Gibbs, let's go the driver they are letting walk away. Darrell Wallace, Jr. won four races in the 2014 Truck Series season and finished third in the championship however, sponsorship issues has forced him to leave the team and it appears he maybe moving to the Grand National Series to driver for Roush-Fenway. Wallace, Jr. is a very talented driver and we are approaching nine years since the last African-American qualified for a Cup race (Bill Lester at the June Michigan race in case you're wondering. Before that, NASCAR went two decade between African-American drivers making a start in the Cup Series). The time is right for Wallace, Jr. to get a Cup start or two while he continues to develop into a more rounded driver.
5. Tony Stewart Will Win a Cup Series Race
With a difficult 2014 behind him, Tony Stewart will find a way back into victory lane. I don't think he will be at the top of the championship and I don't think he will be a contender every week but I think the three-time champion will be able to have competitive race weekends where he is in contention and be able to pull out a victory. It could be a short track, it could be a road course, it just might be the Daytona 500. Imagine that? After the horrific year, Stewart returns to Daytona and finally breaks through for his first Daytona 500 victory, pretty much the final piece of the puzzle for an otherwise illustrious career.
6. Roush Fenway Racing Fail to Win a Cup Race
How the mighty have fallen. Remember when everyone panicked when Roush had five cars and the worry was the team expanding to taking up a quarter of the grid? NASCAR even implemented a rule preventing a team from have more than four full-time cars and Roush had one grandfathered in for a handful of seasons before they had to shut down the program. Those were the days. Now Roush can barely field three full-time cars. The glory days of Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards are gone. Now it's Biffle carrying the torch with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Trevor Bayne as his teammates, each with two left feet. Stenhouse has yet to translate his talent which won him two Grand National titles into Cup success and while Bayne won the 2011Daytona 500, his second Cup start, he has managed only two top tens in his subsequent 56 Cup starts driving for the Wood Brothers. Penske has supplanted Roush as the top Ford team and you could make an argument that Richard Petty Racing with Sam Hornish, Jr. and Aric Almirola are the second best Ford team. Don't hold your breathe on Roush winning in Cup next year.
7. Chase Elliott Does Not Repeat as Grand National Series Champion
After winning this year's title weeks before his 19th birthday, Chase Elliott will return for another year in NASCAR's second division and could join the likes of Sam Ard, Larry Pearson, Randy Lajoie, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Martin Truex, Jr. and Stenhouse, Jr. as back-to-back champions. However, I don't see that happening. One, because who knows what NASCAR might do with that championship format. Two, I think Elliott could face more of a challenge. Teammate Regan Smith finished third in the 2013 championship and second in 2014. If he continues improving at that rate, he will be lined up for a championship in 2015. While you shouldn't hold your breathe on Roush winning in Cup, they could win the Grand National title as they have added Elliott Sadler from Gibbs and Ryan Reed will compete full-time and the team could be adding Darrell Wallace, Jr. Brian Scott and Ty Dillon both look to return with Richard Childress Racing. Winning a title it tough, defending it is even tougher and I expect someone else to be hoisting the trophy on November 21, 2015.
8. NASCAR Continues to Ignore Cup Drivers Moonlighting in the Grand National and Truck Series.
And because NASCAR continues to ignore it, Kyle Busch will win over a half dozen Truck and Grand National races and Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski will combine to win a dozen Grand National races. No one is asking for NASCAR to ban all moonlighting, just limit it. I love to see Cup drivers moonlight occasionally but not Cup drivers running 75% of Grand National and Truck races. Limit drivers to seven races in each championship they are ineligible for and all will be well with the world. Allow the full-time drivers in those series to compete against each other for victories, not for fifth every week and they will become more household names. It is a win-win proposition.
And because NASCAR continues to ignore it, Kyle Busch will win over a half dozen Truck and Grand National races and Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski will combine to win a dozen Grand National races. No one is asking for NASCAR to ban all moonlighting, just limit it. I love to see Cup drivers moonlight occasionally but not Cup drivers running 75% of Grand National and Truck races. Limit drivers to seven races in each championship they are ineligible for and all will be well with the world. Allow the full-time drivers in those series to compete against each other for victories, not for fifth every week and they will become more household names. It is a win-win proposition.
9. The Truck Series Champion Wins More Than Three Races
Matt Crafton has won the last two Truck titles, combining for three victories the last two seasons. If Crafton wants to become the first driver to win three consecutive Truck titles, he is going to have to do more than he has done in the past two season. Darrell Wallace, Jr. won four races in 2014 and Erik Jones won three races and Jones is now eligible to run a full season. Crafton's teammate Johnny Sauter should challenge for the title. Tyler Reddick will run a full season for Brad Keselowski Racing and he finished 12th in the 2014 championship despite missing six races. Jeb Burton could also return to ThorSport alongside Crafton and Sauter. Kyle Busch will win at least six Truck races, but it's a matter of what happens in those other 17 that will decide who wins the title.
Matt Crafton has won the last two Truck titles, combining for three victories the last two seasons. If Crafton wants to become the first driver to win three consecutive Truck titles, he is going to have to do more than he has done in the past two season. Darrell Wallace, Jr. won four races in 2014 and Erik Jones won three races and Jones is now eligible to run a full season. Crafton's teammate Johnny Sauter should challenge for the title. Tyler Reddick will run a full season for Brad Keselowski Racing and he finished 12th in the 2014 championship despite missing six races. Jeb Burton could also return to ThorSport alongside Crafton and Sauter. Kyle Busch will win at least six Truck races, but it's a matter of what happens in those other 17 that will decide who wins the title.
10. Alex Tagliani Wins a NASCAR-sanctioned Race
This is very vague because I don't know where it is going to happen but it's going to happen. Whether it is with Penske at one of the three Grand National Series road course races, all of which take place in August (Watkins Glen, Mid-Ohio and Road America) or the Mosport Truck race (which is the day after the Road America race. Could be an interesting doubleheader for Tagliani to attempt) or a NASCAR Canadian Tire Series race, Tagliani will win a NASCAR-sanctioned race in 2015.
This is very vague because I don't know where it is going to happen but it's going to happen. Whether it is with Penske at one of the three Grand National Series road course races, all of which take place in August (Watkins Glen, Mid-Ohio and Road America) or the Mosport Truck race (which is the day after the Road America race. Could be an interesting doubleheader for Tagliani to attempt) or a NASCAR Canadian Tire Series race, Tagliani will win a NASCAR-sanctioned race in 2015.
11. Ratings Will Be Down Slightly on NBC, Mostly in the Grand National Series
I don't expect NASCAR to get better ratings on NBCSN compared to ESPN. Overall, NBC/NBCSN might score better than ESPN/ABC because NASCAR has more network races with NBC than they did with ABC but I think the cable races will see a slight decrease. NBCSN isn't as readily available or a mainstay as ESPN is and while NBCSN might see growth, comparing them to what NASCAR did on ESPN, I think the numbers will be down. Nothing drastic but definitely by a few decimal points.
I don't expect NASCAR to get better ratings on NBCSN compared to ESPN. Overall, NBC/NBCSN might score better than ESPN/ABC because NASCAR has more network races with NBC than they did with ABC but I think the cable races will see a slight decrease. NBCSN isn't as readily available or a mainstay as ESPN is and while NBCSN might see growth, comparing them to what NASCAR did on ESPN, I think the numbers will be down. Nothing drastic but definitely by a few decimal points.
12. There Will Not Be a Winless Driver Eligible for the Cup Title Entering the Final Race
NASCAR won't have to worry about a Ryan Newman-situation at Homestead in 2015. But that doesn't mean their Chase-format isn't contrived and something to be proud of.
One set of predictions down, four to go. Look for the next batch of predictions in two days.
NASCAR won't have to worry about a Ryan Newman-situation at Homestead in 2015. But that doesn't mean their Chase-format isn't contrived and something to be proud of.
One set of predictions down, four to go. Look for the next batch of predictions in two days.
