1. Penske Drivers Combine to Win Six Races or Fewer Amongst Three Drivers
Coming off a championship with Will Power in 2014 and signing Simon Pagenaud in the offseason, I think Team Penske's dominance can only go so far. Last season, Power won three times while Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves each won once and Pagenaud won twice for Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports. In theory, you would expect each of those drivers to match their win totals from 2014 and Penske will score seven victories in 2015 but it isn't that simple. With the addition of Pagenaud someone is going to get less attention than in 2014. Castroneves has been struggling to win races the last few seasons but finds himself in championship contention though consistency. He could be held winless in 2015. Montoya's best races were oval races in 2015 but with only six ovals, the Colombian has to improve on road and street courses to increase the likelihood of him picking up a victory and a second championship. Then there is Pagenaud. While we all think victories will come easy to him now that he is with Penske, that isn't a guarantee. It took Tony Kanaan until the final race of his first season with Ganassi to get a victory. Power is the only one you should feel confident about as the defending champion has won at least three races every season since becoming a full-time Penske driver in 2010. As for the other three, I just can't see all them getting a win in 2015.
2. No More Than Three Honda Drivers Win a Race
Honda is in trouble. The confirmed Chevrolet drivers for 2015 combine for 157 victories with the top-five active drivers in victories being employed by Chevrolet teams. Confirmed Honda drivers for 2015 combine for 21 victories with Ryan Hunter-Reay responsible for 14 of those 21 victories. To make matters worse, Justin Wilson could be heading to KV Racing, potentially adding another seven victories to Chevrolet's total. Other than Hunter-Reay, I can't see where Honda is going to get victories. James Hinchcliffe replaces Simon Pagenaud at Schmidt Peterson but the Canadian is coming off a winless 2014 season and Pagenaud is the only driver to win in SPM's history. Marco Andretti's best chances at victories are on ovals but he has not won since Iowa 2011. Graham Rahal is rarely a threat for victory having scored three podiums in the last three seasons. Takuma Sato is... well Takuma Sato. Honda's young guns of Carlos Muñoz and Jack Hawksworth might breakthrough and get to the top step of the podium. Dale Coyne Racing has won a race each season of the DW12-era with three different drivers and it looks as if DCR will have two new drivers in 2015, one could be former Caterham and Marussia reserve driver Alexander Rossi. Unless Honda makes a splash signing, I think Chevrolet will wipe the floor with them in 2015.
3. Josef Newgarden Wins a Race
The Tennessean has to if he wants to solidify himself as a top notch IndyCar driver. He has yet to taste victory after 51 starts. Only 25 drivers have taken longer to get their first career victory. The clock is ticking on Newgarden and the merger of Ed Carpenter Racing and Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing provides plenty support behind him that he didn't have in his years as a driver for a single-car team. Ed Carpenter will provide Newgarden with the assistants needed to become more of a contender on ovals. The loss of Mike Conway won't help Newgarden but the possible replacement of JR Hildebrand as the road/street course driver of the #20 Chevrolet could be a good alternative to bounce step up information and data off of. If I had to guess, Newgarden would win on an oval in 2015.
4. A Rookie Scores a Top Five Finish Prior to the Indianapolis 500
We don't even have a rookie announced for the 2015 season but I already have faith that one of the rookies will score a top five in the first six races. The rumored rookies are enticing of what could be one of the most talented rookie classes in recent IndyCar history. Forget Road to Indy developed Sage Karam and Gabby Chaves for a second and imagine Jean-Éric Vergne, Davide Valsecchi, Conor Daly, Alexander Rossi, Daniel Abt, Dean Stoneman, Charles Pic and/or Stefano Coletti on the 2015 IndyCar grid. Vergne appears as he will focus on remaining in Formula One as he was hired to be a Ferrari reserve driver but the rest of them could come stateside. Valsecchi is a GP2 champion. Daly won the Star Mazda title and has had success in GP3 and GP2. Stoneman finished runner-up in the 2014 GP3 championship. Abt finished runner-up in the 2012 GP3 championship. Pic is a race winner in Formula Renault 3.5 and GP2 as is Rossi and Coletti has won over a half dozen GP2 races. Karam is likely to land at Ganassi and he would be the favorite to be the first rookie to score a top five in 2015 but you couldn't rule out any of the drivers listed above. The IndyCar field is deep and any team can win on any given weekend.
5. There Will Be at Least Three Frenchmen on the Grid
With Sébastien Bourdais and Simon Pagenaud returning to IndyCar in 2015, France could see a third representative on the grid with all the talks of Vergne and Pic joining the series. Yes, I know I just said I don't think Vergne will come to IndyCar but who knows? He just had a great weekend in Formula E with Andretti Autosport and I think he could be a championship contender out of the gates if he signed with Andretti. Mario might be able to talk to the folks in Maranello to allow him to run both IndyCar and be a reserve driver for the Scuderia. Pic also drove for Andretti in Formula E and had a successful weekend at Beijing. Andretti would be smart to hire either driver or Ed Carpenter would be smart to hire either driver as his co-driver. At least one other Frenchman is on the IndyCar grid for most of 2015.
6. At Least One Driver Attempts "The Double"
Whether it's Kurt Busch, Juan Pablo Montoya, A.J. Allmendinger, Sam Hornish, Jr., heck even Robby Gordon or Tony Stewart, someone will attempt to complete 1100 miles on May 24th. I think Busch and Montoya are the only two with the remote possibility of attempting it but why rule out the others? Maybe Allmendinger pulls a deal together or maybe Richard Petty forms a partnership with an IndyCar team like he did for a few years and brings Hornish back to the 500. Or maybe Gordon does it because he still can. Maybe Stewart wins the Daytona 500 this year and realizes he could join his idol A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti as the only drivers to win both Daytona and Indianapolis and just can't pass that up.
7. Average Grid Size is Up... Sightly
I am optimistic that there will be two dozen full-time entries in 2015. Four Penskes, four Ganassis, four Andrettis would be half the grid with A.J. Foyt Racing, KV, CFH Racing, SPM and Dale Coyne each running two cars and Rahal Letterman Lanigan and Bryan Herta Autosport each fielding single car teams. Herta is the one that concerns me the most as they struggle for sponsorship but at least have Jay Howard lined up for Indianapolis. If Herta can't make it to the grid it is possible that RLLR could scrape together a second car and there were rumors of a third KV but I don't think either are likely. In 2014, the average grid size was 23.111. I think that number will be up by a little bit in 2015.
8. There is At Least One Bump During the Month of May
Seeing as how I am optimistic that two dozen cars will be full-time, I think ten additional one-offs for the "500" is possible. We already know about Howard at BHA, Bryan Clauson will drive for Jonathan Byrd's Racing and Buddy Lazier should be back. That's 27. Townsend Bell will get a ride with somebody. Andretti can field a fifth. Coyne is making it a habit of field a third entry and usually for Pippa Mann. CFH Racing could run not just one but two Indianapolis one-offs as they have combined their operations. If CFH runs two, we would be at 32 entries. KV ran two one-offs in 2014, one was for Bell. RLLR ran two entries and if they don't run two full-time, I expect them to have at least one Indianapolis one-off. SPM ran Jacques Villeneuve in a third entry last year and Dreyer & Reinhold ran Sage Karam who was on lone from Ganassi. On paper, I have come up with 36 entries but I won't get greedy with my prediction knowing how hard it is to put together rides for the Month of May. Thirty-four is the number to look for come May.
9. At Least Nine Drivers Win a Race
In the DW12-era we have seen no fewer than eight different winners in a season with 11 different drivers winning in 2014, matching the record set in the 2000 season and duplicated in 2001. Let's say three Penske drivers win, two Ganassi and one Andretti. That's six winners and we haven't even touched on KV who could have both Bourdais and Wilson, CFH who will have both Carpenter and Newgarden, Coyne, one of four teams to win in each season of the DW12-era and SPM with newly signed James Hinchcliffe. It's hard to imagine less than a dozen winners but that's never been done before.
10. A Track on the 2015 Schedule Will Not Be on the 2016 Schedule
IndyCar has not had 100% retention rate of a schedule one year to the next since the 2007 season when all 14 tracks from 2006 carried over and three tracks (Iowa, Mid-Ohio and Belle Isle) were added. At least four tracks, all ovals, are on life support. Texas, Fontana, Milwaukee and Pocono could all be dropped after 2015. I could honestly see Texas, Fontana and Pocono all drop off but since IndyCar can't afford to lose half their ovals I think they would work out a deal with one if not two of the tracks. As for road/street courses, if the Brazilian checks stop going through, the Brasilia race will be a one and done. Maybe Toronto can't get back their traditional July date for some reason and that race ends after nearly three decades. If you live in driving distance to any of the sixteen rounds of the 2015 Verizon IndyCar Series Season, I suggest you try and make it out because it could be the last time the series heads your way for quite sometime.
11. An ESPN/ABC Announcer Says Something That Makes Us Put Our Heads In Our Hands
As long as Eddie Cheever and/or Scott Goodyear are in the booth, they will say something absolutely idiotic or state the obvious. If ESPN/ABC wants to improve their race coverage, first stop going split screen with cameras on significant others/car owners/anyone not in a car during the final laps of a race, especially the Indianapolis 500 and second get rid of Cheever and Goodyear. You have one of the best lead motorsports commentators in the United States with Allen Bestwick. Give him a color commentator or two up to his caliber and the broadcast will improve immensely.
12. A Third Manufacture Is AnnouncedThis is the most optimistic prediction of them all. I think IndyCar needs a third manufacture to relieve the load on Chevrolet's and Honda's backs. With the rumors of Andretti Autosport fielding Nissans in Pirelli World Challenge and with Nissan's LMP1 program being run out of Gerry Forsythe's shop in Indianapolis, I am really optimistic someone at IndyCar can entice them to return to the series. If not Nissan, than I am not sure who it would be. Ford isn't interested. Neither is Toyota. Dodge is gutting their GTLM program after winning a title, I doubt they are interested in IndyCar or has the means to join the series. As for European manufactures, I just don't see any spending the funds necessary for an IndyCar program. Nissan could be the only hope at a third manufacture possibly beginning in 2016.
Five sets of predictions (NASCAR, Et Cetera, sports cars and Formula One) are complete for the 2015 motorsports season. After a few weeks off to enjoy the holidays, the motorsport season begins almost immediately after the ball drops. The Supercross season begins January 3rd from Anaheim. The Dakar Rally begins January 4th and runs for two consecutive weeks. January 10th features the Dubai 24 Hour and Formula E from Buenos Aires. Two weeks after that is the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona and Rallye Monte-Carlo. February will then arrive and the Bathurst 12 Hour gives us another endurance race to fill a weekend before the NASCAR season gets underway. And two weeks after the Daytona 500, the IndyCar season will begin with Formula One starting the week after that. The motorsports season is getting closer and closer each day. It will be here sooner than we expect.
