And Then There Were Four...
Four drivers remain eligible for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship as the series heads to it's season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Each driver has a narrative and each driver has a connection to one of their championship rivals heading into the final race.
Kevin Harvick enters coming off a win at Phoenix last week, his fourth victory of the season. Had he not won in the desert, he would not be in South Florida with a shot at silverware. Three of Harvick's four victories came at tracks shorter than a mile and a half with the lone exception being Harvick's victory at Charlotte last month. He has led 2083 laps this season, more than 500 laps than the next driver. He has been running at the finish of 33 of 35 races and 26 of those finishes has been on the lead lap. Harvick leads all drivers with eight pole positions in 2014.
Joey Logano has the most victories amongst the four remaining drivers with five wins and could tie his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski at Homestead. Two of Logano's five victories came on mile and a half tracks. He has lead 993 laps this season and has the most top five and top ten finishes amongst the remaining drivers with sixteen and twenty-two respectively. Logano's lone pole position this season came at Las Vegas, a mile and a half track.
Denny Hamlin could become the first Cup champion to miss a race in the modern-era (since 1972). He missed Fontana after an eye injury. Hamlin's lone victory came at Talladega in May and the Virginian has led 313 laps in 2014. He has seven top fives and seventeen top tens along with three pole positions, none of which came on a mile and a half track (Bristol, Pocono, Phoenix). Hamlin has the worst average starting position and finishing position of the final four drivers at 14.7 and 14.5 respectively.
Ryan Newman has completed the most laps of the remaining drivers, having run 10,212 laps but has only led 41 laps through the first 35 races. Newman has no wins, four top fives and fifteenth top tens with no pole positions, despite being second amongst active drivers in pole positions with 51 to his name. Newman leads the final four drivers in races running at the finish and lead lap finishes having taken the checkered flag on 34 occasions, 30 of which were on the lead lap.
Newman could become the first winless driver to win the NASCAR Cup championship the year after he left Stewart-Haas Racing for Richard Childress Racing. Harvick could win his first championship the year after leaving Childress for Stewart-Haas. Hamlin and Logano were once teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing and they are remembered for getting together at Fontana last season where Hamlin hit the wall and ended up with a compression fracture in his back which caused him to miss four races.
Penske could lock up both IndyCar and NASCAR Cup titles in the same season. Penske's lone Cup championship came in 2012 with Keselowski. Stewart-Haas won the 2011 title with owner-driver Tony Stewart winning five Chase races including the season finale at Homestead. Gibbs Racing's last title came in 2005 with Tony Stewart as there driver and Gibbs could become the first Toyota team to win the championship. Childress Racing is looking for his seventh title but first since 1994, the final title of Dale Earnhardt's illustrious career.
Hamlin is the only one of the four drivers with Cup victories at Homestead. He won at the track in 2009 and 2013. Hamlin has not had back-to-back top ten finishes at Homestead since finishing 3rd back-to-back years in 2006 and 2007. Hamlin has started in the top ten only twice at Homestead, fifth last year and tenth in 2011. His next best start at the track is 25th.
Logano has one top ten in five Homestead starts. He finished eight last year. His other four finishes are 24th, 39th, 19th and 14th. He started on pole position in the 2012 Homestead race. Despite start on pole two years ago, Logano has never led a lap at Homestead but he has finished on the lead lap in four of his five start.
Newman has one top five and four top tens in 12 starts. His best finish was third in 2012. His best start at the track is second on top occasions (2005 and 2007). He has started in the top five four times. Newman did win the 2005 then-Busch Series race at Homestead. He started from pole position and led 67 laps that day, holding off Greg Biffle and Mark Martin for victory.
Harvick has 11 top tens in 13 Homestead starts. He has the best average finish at the track is 8.1, second best with only Carl Edwards having a better average finish (6.6). Harvick has run all but one lap in those 13 Homestead starts. He has finished second twice at Homestead (2003 and 2008). Harvick won the 2004 then-Busch Series race at Homestead. He started 12th but lead a race-high 108 laps.
Ford has won seven of fifteen Homestead races but has not won since 2010. Chevrolet has three Homestead victories, two have come in the past three years. All of Toyota's wins at Homestead have come at the hands of Denny Hamlin. The pole-sitter has won at Homestead twice but the pole-sitter has not won since the track was reconfigured in 2003. Bill Elliott and Kurt Busch won from pole position in 2001 and 2002 respectively.
Regardless who wins, NASCAR will have a first-time Cup champion.
And Then There Were Two...
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series also ends their season at Homestead-Miami Speedway but have half as many drivers eligible for the title as the Cup series. Matt Crafton leads Ryan Blaney by 25 points.
Crafton has two victories this season, double his total from last season. He has thirteen top fives and sixteen top tens through 21 races. He has been running at the end of 19 races and all 19 of those races he finished on the lead lap. He has made thirteen starts at Homestead. He finished second in 2009, his best finish at the track. He has finished outside the top ten in the last three Homestead races.
Blaney has one victory this season with eleven top fives and sixteen tops tens. He has been running at the finish of 19 races, 17 on the lead lap. Unlike Crafton, Blaney has won two pole positions in 2014, one of which came at Las Vegas, a mile and a half track. He has only two starts at Homestead. He started on pole position last year and finished second to Kyle Busch after leading a race-high 67 laps. Blaney retired after an accident in his first Homestead in 2012 and ended up 28th.
Crafton could become the first back-to-back champion in the history of the Truck series. A second title would put Crafton in company with Ron Hornaday, Jr., Jeff Sprague and Todd Bodine as drivers with multiple Truck series titles. Should Blaney comeback and win the title, he would become the youngest champion in the history of the Truck series.
Crafton can clinch the title with a 21st place finish, 22nd if he leads a lap and 23rd if he leads the most laps.
Five Battle in GT500 while Three go at it in GT300
The 2014 Super GT season ends at Motegi with a 250km race. Five driver combinations are eligible for the GT500 title. James Rossiter leads the GT500 championship with 67 points after winning the last two races with Kazuki Nakajima in the #36 Petronas Team TOM's Lexus RC F. Nakajima missed two rounds due to FIA WEC commitments earlier in the year and is not in the running for the title.
Rossiter holds a three points advantage over his teammates Andrea Caldarelli and Daisuke Ito. Six points back is the #23 NISMO Nissan GT-R of Tsugio Matsuda and Ronnie Quintarelli. In fourth is the #12 Calsonic Team Impul Nissan GT-R of João Paulo de Oliveira and Hironobu Yasuda. Naomi Yamamoto is 14 points back of Rossiter. He will be joined by current GP2 driver Takuya Izawa in #18 Dome Racing Honda NSX-GT at Motegi.
Only three teams are fighting for the GT300 with the current leaders having a much more breathing room than those in the GT500 battle. Tatsuya Kataoka and Nobuteru Taniguchi lead in the #4 GSR & Team Ukyo BMW Z4 GT3 with 67 points. They won the first two rounds of the season and are coming off a third place finish in the last race in Thailand. Nine points back are the #11 Gainer Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG GT3 of Katsuyuki Hiranaka and Björn Wirdheim and the #7 Team Studie BMW of Seiji Ara and Jörg Müller. Neither of the teams tied for second have won in 2014 but each have two runner-up finishes. The #11 Gainer Mercedes owns the tiebreaker with two, third-place finishes to the #7 BMW's one third-place finish.
The #11 Gainer Mercedes won last year at Motegi while the #4 GSR & Team Uyko finished fourth. Should those results repeat themselves, Gainer will leave with the championship.
Rossiter holds a three points advantage over his teammates Andrea Caldarelli and Daisuke Ito. Six points back is the #23 NISMO Nissan GT-R of Tsugio Matsuda and Ronnie Quintarelli. In fourth is the #12 Calsonic Team Impul Nissan GT-R of João Paulo de Oliveira and Hironobu Yasuda. Naomi Yamamoto is 14 points back of Rossiter. He will be joined by current GP2 driver Takuya Izawa in #18 Dome Racing Honda NSX-GT at Motegi.
Only three teams are fighting for the GT300 with the current leaders having a much more breathing room than those in the GT500 battle. Tatsuya Kataoka and Nobuteru Taniguchi lead in the #4 GSR & Team Ukyo BMW Z4 GT3 with 67 points. They won the first two rounds of the season and are coming off a third place finish in the last race in Thailand. Nine points back are the #11 Gainer Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG GT3 of Katsuyuki Hiranaka and Björn Wirdheim and the #7 Team Studie BMW of Seiji Ara and Jörg Müller. Neither of the teams tied for second have won in 2014 but each have two runner-up finishes. The #11 Gainer Mercedes owns the tiebreaker with two, third-place finishes to the #7 BMW's one third-place finish.
The #11 Gainer Mercedes won last year at Motegi while the #4 GSR & Team Uyko finished fourth. Should those results repeat themselves, Gainer will leave with the championship.
The Return to Macau
José María López enters Macau having already clinched the 2014 World Touring Car Championship as the series heads to the streets of Macau for the season finale. López's Citroën teammates Yvan Muller and Sébastien Loeb are second and third in the championship. Factory Honda driver Tiago Monteiro and customer Honda driver Norbert Michelisz round out the top five in the championship.
Gabriele Tarquini is sixth after winning the second race at the most recent round at Suzuka. He is two points behind Michelisz and seven points behind his teammate Monteiro. Tom Coronel is seventh with 148 points, four ahead of Beijing race one winner and his ROAL Motorsport teammate Tom Chilton. Münnich Motorsport's Gabriele Morbidelli is ninth in the championship with Proteam Racing's Mehdi Bennani rounding out the top ten. Each driver has a victory in 2014 with Morbidelli winning race two from Hungary and Bennani winning race two from Shanghai.
Yvan Muller and Robert Huff have combined to win eight of the last twelve races from Macau. Huff is responsible for six of those victories and has won at least one race from Macau in five of the last six years. Huff scored Lada their maiden victory at Beijing nearly six weeks ago. López and Loeb will each be making their Macau debuts this weekend.
Gabriele Tarquini is sixth after winning the second race at the most recent round at Suzuka. He is two points behind Michelisz and seven points behind his teammate Monteiro. Tom Coronel is seventh with 148 points, four ahead of Beijing race one winner and his ROAL Motorsport teammate Tom Chilton. Münnich Motorsport's Gabriele Morbidelli is ninth in the championship with Proteam Racing's Mehdi Bennani rounding out the top ten. Each driver has a victory in 2014 with Morbidelli winning race two from Hungary and Bennani winning race two from Shanghai.
Yvan Muller and Robert Huff have combined to win eight of the last twelve races from Macau. Huff is responsible for six of those victories and has won at least one race from Macau in five of the last six years. Huff scored Lada their maiden victory at Beijing nearly six weeks ago. López and Loeb will each be making their Macau debuts this weekend.
To End in Wales
Another championship that is wrapped up but has a round remaining is the World Rally Championship. Sébastien Ogier locked up his second consecutive championship with victory in Spain three weeks ago. Volkswagen drivers will finish 1-2-3 in the championship as Jari-Matti Latvala and Andreas Mikkelsen are locked in their positions.
Mikko Hirvonen is fourth driving for M-Sport Ford. He finished third in Spain, his second podium of the season. Wales Rally GB will mark the final event of Hirvonen's WRC career. The Finn will be making his 162nd rally. He has 15 wins, 68 podiums and 259 stage victories. He drove for factory efforts from Ford, Subaru and Citroën over his twelve-year career. His first victory was the 2006 Rally Australia. He finished runner-up in the championship on four occasions. He lost the 2009 title by one point to Sébastien Loeb and lost the 2011 title to Loeb by eight points.
Rounding out the top five, sixteen points behind Hirvonen is Citroën driver Mads Østberg. Rallye Deutschland winner Thierry Neuville is a point behind Østberg with the Norwegian's teammate Kris Meeke seven points behind Neuville. Welsh driver Elfyn Evans is eighth with his best finish being fourth on two occasions.
This year marks the 70th running of Wales Rally GB. Ogier won the rally last year. Latvala had won the previous two rallies before Ogier snapped his streak. Hirvonen won the 2007 Wales Rally GB never relinquishing the rally lead once he won the first stage. The last British driver to win the event was Richard Burns in 2000.
Mikko Hirvonen is fourth driving for M-Sport Ford. He finished third in Spain, his second podium of the season. Wales Rally GB will mark the final event of Hirvonen's WRC career. The Finn will be making his 162nd rally. He has 15 wins, 68 podiums and 259 stage victories. He drove for factory efforts from Ford, Subaru and Citroën over his twelve-year career. His first victory was the 2006 Rally Australia. He finished runner-up in the championship on four occasions. He lost the 2009 title by one point to Sébastien Loeb and lost the 2011 title to Loeb by eight points.
Rounding out the top five, sixteen points behind Hirvonen is Citroën driver Mads Østberg. Rallye Deutschland winner Thierry Neuville is a point behind Østberg with the Norwegian's teammate Kris Meeke seven points behind Neuville. Welsh driver Elfyn Evans is eighth with his best finish being fourth on two occasions.
This year marks the 70th running of Wales Rally GB. Ogier won the rally last year. Latvala had won the previous two rallies before Ogier snapped his streak. Hirvonen won the 2007 Wales Rally GB never relinquishing the rally lead once he won the first stage. The last British driver to win the event was Richard Burns in 2000.
Over/Unders
1. Over or Under: 0.5 cautions involving Chase drivers?
2. Over or Under: 0.5 attempts at a green-white-checkers in the Truck race? Five of the last seven Homestead races have gone over the scheduled distances with one being shortened by rain.
3. Over or Under: 2.5 Lexus RC Fs in the top five of the GT500 race?
4. Over or Under: 0.5 red flags between the two WTCC races from Macau?
5. Over or Under: 3.5 Fords in the points in Wales Rally GB?
Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Over: Dovizioso finished with 187 points.
2. Under: Only two riders were within a second of the Moto3 winner.
3. Under: The only retirement was Yuji Kunimoto in race two from Suzuka.
4. Under: There was no laps rain in wet conditions at Interlagos.
5. Under: Zero cautions involved Chase drivers at Phoenix.
Predictions
1. Ryan Newman wins the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.
2. Matt Crafton wins the Truck series title.
3. James Rossiter holds on to take the GT500 title.
4. Sébastien Loeb gets at least one podium at Macau.
5. Andreas Mikkelsen will finish ahead of one of his Volkswagen teammates in Wales Rally GB.
Last Week's Predictions
1. Randy de Puniet finishes in the points (Wrong. de Puniet retired from Valencia).
2. Álex Márquez wins the Moto3 championship (Correct).
3. André Lotterer wins the Super Formula championship (Wrong. Kazuki Nakajima won the title).
4. Mercedes gets their first podium at Interlagos (Correct).
5. A winless driver will advance to the championship race (Correct).
Overall: 3/5. Running Tally: 25.5/45
Don't forget to keep up on FIA World Endurance Championship, V8 Supercars and Stock Car Brasil action this weekend.
2. Álex Márquez wins the Moto3 championship (Correct).
3. André Lotterer wins the Super Formula championship (Wrong. Kazuki Nakajima won the title).
4. Mercedes gets their first podium at Interlagos (Correct).
5. A winless driver will advance to the championship race (Correct).
Overall: 3/5. Running Tally: 25.5/45
Don't forget to keep up on FIA World Endurance Championship, V8 Supercars and Stock Car Brasil action this weekend.
