2014 NASCAR Predictions: Revisited

We are going back nearly 11 months to my initial predictions on the 2014 NASCAR season before an engine had even fired. Let's see what I got right and what I got wrong.

1. This Is Going To Be Dale Earnhardt, Jr's Year
I won't say I got this one wrong. Earnhardt, Jr. did will his second Daytona 500, did win multiple races in a season for the first time since 2004 and he was solid all year. Sure he didn't win the championship and was eliminated after the second round of the Chase but this season was one of the top of his career. If it wasn't for the Chase, he would have been fourth in the Championship.

Earnhardt, Jr.'s season was much better than the final position in the championship shows. Will we remember 2014 for what Earnhardt, Jr. did? Probably not but he definitely showed he isn't going away any time soon.

2. Stewart-Haas Racing Will Be Average
Had Kevin Harvick not won the championship, I would probably be typing my argument as to how Stewart-Haas Racing was average in 2014 but when you win the championship, despite how contrived the system may be, it's been a good year.

You have to give Kevin Harvick his due. Five victories, lead the most laps in 2014 with 2,137 laps led, had the most poles with eight, 14 top fives and 20 top tens. You can't take that away from Harvick.

The other three Stewart-Haas drivers though is another story. They were all average, if not slightly below average. Sure, Kurt Busch won at Martinsville in March but he had a better season in IndyCar than he did in NASCAR. Six top fives and 11 top tens over 36 races and it will say he finished 12th in the 2014 championship but if you add up all the points he scored from 36 races, he would have been 20th.

Tony Stewart's season was difficult before the off-the-track problems came in August. Before missing three races, Stewart was sitting 19th in the championship and was going to have to win to make the Chase. He didn't win before the Chase and he didn't win during the Chase, ending a streak of 15 consecutive seasons with a victory. But all good things must come to an end. He ended 2014 with three top fives, only one of those coming after returning at Atlanta. He had seven top tens and one pole position. Both top five and top ten totals were career lows and he finished 25th in the championship.

Danica Patrick ended up 28th in the championship with three top tens, triple her total from her rookie season. She scored a career-best sixth place finish at Atlanta and tripled the amount of laps led in a season from her rookie season from five to 15. Her average starting position improved from 30.3 to 22.8 and her average finished jumped from 26.1 to 23.7. She was running at the finish of 32 races and her total amount of lead lap finishes skyrocketed from 12 to 19.

If Kevin Harvick was out of the equation, Stewart-Haas Racing would be lost in the wilderness. Harvick is the only thing that kept Stewart-Haas' season from being a disaster. I think things will improve in 2015 but how much will they improve and can they counter any decline Harvick may have off his championship?

3. Matt Kenseth Will Recover From Losing The Title
Kenseth was in contention for the title in the final race and after winning seven races in 2013, the Wisconsin came up with naught in 2014. However, despite not ending up in victory lane, he did score 13 top fives, one more than 2013 and 22 top tens, two more than 2013. He was also running at the finish of 34 races, one more than 2013 and finished 30 races on the lead lap.

This wasn't just a rough year for Kenseth, this was a rough year for Toyota as the manufacture won two of 36 races, the lowest for the manufacture since their first season in Cup seven years ago when they went winless. The bar has been set really low for Toyota heading into 2015. Joe Gibbs Racing will be expanding to four cars in 2015 as Carl Edwards moves to the team from Roush Fenway Racing. The question is how does this expansion affects the Gibbs organization. We have seen plenty of teams expand but not get the results. Of course, Stewart-Haas expanded in 2014 and they left with the championship but we've seen Childress expanded to four cars on multiple occasions and not get a title. We have seen Roush shrink from five cars and once threatening NASCAR's infrastructure to three cars and barely making any noise on the NASCAR radar.

4. There Will Be A First Time Winner But It Won't Be A Rookie
I got A.J. Allmendinger right. I didn't pick Aric Almirola but he did win a rain-shortened restrictor plate race, which is open to anybody. I am glad Almirola won because I think he has more talent than he gets credit for and if he wasn't royally screwed by Joe Gibbs Racing at Milwaukee in 2007, his career might look completely different. Would he have been in the final four at Homestead? Probably not but I think because Gibbs screwed him over, Almirola's development was stunted, he was rushed into Cup and it took him five years before he was able to make a full-time jump into Cup.

Allmendinger won at Watkins Glen after a fierce battle with Marcos Ambrose. He was in position to advance to the second round of the Chase before a poor result at Dover while Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne got their acts together. My question is was the making the Chase really worth it to Allmendinger and Almirola? Almirola was pretty much done once his engine failed at Chicago and Allmendinger had a slim ray of hope entering Dover but knew he was going to have not put a wheel wrong and hope the opposite for those trailing him.

Did making the Chase give Almirola and Allmendinger any benefit that the likes of Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray and Clint Bowyer didn't get? To me, no. For the first half of the Chase we heard every week how great Larson was running and it was justified since his worst finish was sixth in that time frame but once Almirola and Allmendinger were eliminated they faded into the middle of the pack just like they had been for the first 26 races other than the one Sunday they each got to stand in the spotlight.

5. The Rookie Class Won't Disappoint
Kyle Larson sure didn't disappoint. Eight top fives, 17 top tens, a pole and finished the best of the rest. Three runner-up finishes in his first season is pretty impressive for Larson considering his fellow class of 2014 member Austin Dillon was running in as with a Truck and Grand National championship to his name while resurrecting the number three with help from his grandfather. Larson smoked Dillon all season. Other than the Daytona 500 pole-position, Dillon season looked like a typical rookie season but it lacked any sparks unlike Larson's.

As for the rest of the rookie class. Justin Allgaier's best finish was 15th, Micahel Annett's best finish was 16th, Cole Whitt's best finish was 15th, Alex Bowman's best finish was 13th, Ryan Truex lost his ride in September and Parker Kligerman lost his ride before he even finished all the candy in his Easter basket. All these drivers have talent but their lack of results is from a mixture of average equipment and for mostly lack of experience. Allgaier and Annett both entered with a fair amount of Grand National experience. Whitt dove in with just over a season of Grand National experience and one season in Trucks. Bowman had one season of Grand National experience under his belt. The most starts Truex had made in a Grand National season was 17. One year of Nationwide experience is never going to be enough even if you throw a driver into a team such as Hendrick Motorsports.

The treatment Kligerman received is the biggest shame of them all. He had his ride pulled out from underneath before the month of May. His career has been snake-bitten with rides being taken from him no matter how well he is running. And to be honest, I think of all the class of 2014 members, Kligerman is second in talent behind  Larson. It was disappointing seeing the likes of Milka Duno and Timmy Hill getting rides in the Nationwide and Cup Series while Kligerman was on the sidelines, pitching in for NBCSN's NASCAR show. Hopefully someone smart will get him a ride for 2015. Twenty-four year olds should be in cars, not in front of TV cameras.

6. NASCAR Will Not Limited Cup Drivers Participation In The Nationwide Series
I got this one right and I am disappointed I am. NASCAR has to do something. What did we just talk about with Parker Kligerman? Talented driver with no ride while others with less potential are rounding out field. The #54 Gibbs Toyota and #22 Penske Ford would be excellent seats for the likes of Kligerman, Truex, Bowman and Kevin Swindell to get more seat time and show what they got in solid equipment. We don't need to see Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano passing around Grand National series victories like a bong in a college dormitory.

If they aren't going to adopt my idea to limit Cup drivers moonlighting in the lower two division, then please consider the following. Make Cup drivers who want to moonlight run for start-and-park teams. Instead of having a groomed Grand National car waiting for them, make them walk to the farthest garage and hop into Derrick Cope's car or Mike Harmon's car. Have a rule that Cup drivers can't run a Grand National car that is owned or affiliated with a Cup team. At this point, any decision they make that deters Cup drivers from moonlighting for majority of the schedule is a step in the right direction.

7. Iowa Speedway Will Get A Cup Race In 2015
Wrong! I think Iowa Speedway will get a Cup race someday. I think NASCAR could turn it into a triple header weekend with three races under the lights and eventually the fact Iowa can't hold 100,000 people won't bother NASCAR because we are seeing more and more tracks removing seats. They could probably get Iowa's capacity up to 45,000 through the help of temporary seats and NASCAR would be happy with that.

If I had to guess how Iowa gets on the schedule, Dover loses their Chase race, a road course is moved  into the Chase (whether it's Sonoma, Watkins Glen or Road America somehow gets on the schedule remains to be unseen) and Iowa slots in right after Charlotte as the first race in June.

8. Jimmie Johnson Will Be Knocking On The Door For A  Seventh Title
He made the Chase but was eliminated after the second round. For Jimmie Johnson, this was a down season with only four victories, 11 top fives, 19 top tens. He will be fine though. I am sure he will return in 2015 and make an even deeper run in this ridiculous Chase format.