Tuesday, November 25, 2014

2014 Formula One Predictions: Revisited... Again

Last December, I made predictions for the 2014 Formula One season and in March, after it appeared the entire season would be a complete different animal from any when had seen in recent memory, I revisited those and add a few predictions. Those we see how I did.

1. Sebastian Vettel's Winning Streak Ends at Nine
I got that one right but I didn't think Vettel would have gone winless in 2014, the first time that has happened to Vettel when running a full Formula One season. 

2. Vettel Is Still The Championship Favorite
He stopped being the championship favorite once we got to Australia. Any shot at retaining the world title would have only came if Mercedes stubbed their toe and had a massive set back.

3. Romain Grosjean Will Win A Race
In March I added a qualifier saying only he'd only win if he switched team, Lotus had a miracle or a monsoon took out the entire of the field except for Grosjean. I really felt bad for Grosjean, especially after how he finished in 2013. It was impressive that he finished in the points at all this season with how poorly the Lotus ran. Hopefully the switch to Mercedes engines will give the team a boost but even then the team will have to produce a better car seeing as how Williams and Force India both had really good seasons.

4. Pastor Maldonado Will Cement His Role as Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in Formula One
After four seasons in Formula One, his point totals in each season are 1, 46, 1 and 2. The entire 2012 season and his victory at Barcelona are appearing more and more to be an anomaly. It's disappointing that his Venezuelan petrol dollars are keeping him on the grid and keeping a promising talent such as Jolyon Palmer, Stoffel Vandoorne, Sam Bird, James Calado, Davide Valsecchi and Fabio Leimer.

5. Nico Hülkenberg Will Score a Podium
No but his teammate Sergio Pérez did at Bahrain. Hülkenberg finished in the points 15 times in 2014 and finished 37 points clear of Pérez. Hülkenberg has to be one of the most under appreciated drivers on the grid. What else does he have to do to get picked up by a big team? Let me remind you he was the driver Pastor Maldonado replaced at Williams in 2011. If Maldonado could score a victory and 46 points with Williams in 2012, imagine what Hülkenberg could have done. 

6. Caterham or Marussia Will Score a Point in Formula One
Jules Bianchi got Marussia their first and only points at Monaco with a ninth place finish. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to keep Marussia on the grid in 2015.

7. Pirelli Will Continue to Struggle To Provide A Reasonable Tire But Expect Them To Stay For 2015
Pirelli actually had a much better 2014 season and the are going to return in 2015. It seems they are getting a hang on providing the teams with the compounds they want at each race weekend.

8. The Grand Prix of America in New Jersey Will Happen For 2015
Not going to happen in 2015 but I still have hope for 2016. If it doesn't happen in 2016 then I will give up.

9. India, Korea and Mexico Do Not Return For 2015
The former two won't but Mexico is on the 2015 schedule. Will we have to see how construction goes but it will likely happen barring any major set backs.

10. Daniel Ricciardo Will Have Success But Won't Win
Wrong. Who would have thought that not only Daniel Ricciardo would finish ahead of Sebastian Vettel in the championship but the Australian would get three victories and Vettel would end 2014 with a bagel? This was a great coming out party for Ricciardo. If Red Bull gets a better start in 2015 than they did this year, I would not be surprised to see Ricciardo competing for the world championship.

11. McLaren Will Score a Podium and May Even Get A Win
They finished second and third with Kevin Magnussen and Jenson Button in the opening race but after that, the team fell flat and it was disappointing to watch. You expected more out of the famed team from Woking. After twenty seasons with Mercedes power, McLaren returns to Honda, their partner through some of their greatest achievements. Hard to believe that in over two decades with Mercedes, McLaren won only one constructors' championship that coming in 1998. You will probably be quick to bring up 2007 when the team was excluded from the constructors' championship but even then they wouldn't have won the title after they were excluded from scoring points at Hungary after the Fernando Alonso pit fiasco in qualifying. 

Speaking of Fernando Alonso, he appears to be making the comeback everyone thought was the less likely of them all and return to McLaren. After their falling out in 2007, I thought Alonso would never step foot in Woking again. That appears not to be the case. It's only a matter of who is Alonso's teammate? Button is the most experienced driver on the grid but Magnussen had a really good rookie season. Who will they pick? Could they both return if Formula One allows three car teams? With Honda returning and loads of development to be done, I would take an Alonso-Button pairing with Magnussen going on loan for a year (maybe IndyCar at this point because other than McLaren the only other open spot on the 2015 Formula One grid is the second Toro Rosso seat and I bet they will select one of their two dozen development drivers to fill the seat).

12. A Team Other Than Red Bull and Mercedes Will Win A Pole
And Felipe Massa did that at Austria scoring pole position for Williams.

13. Williams Will Score More Than Five Points By the Start of the European Season
Bottas scored ten at Australia alone. They had 36 points by the time they reached Spain.

14. Abu Dhabi Will Not Be Double Points
It was but it didn't really play a role in deciding the world championship. It appears the double points season finale will only be a one and done in 2014 and that is a good thing. 

All of the following were added in March.

15. Felipe Massa Wins a Race
He did not win a race but came close at Abu Dhabi. Perhaps he gets lucky in 2015.

16. Mercedes Has The Upper Hand
That was an understatement.

17. We Will Not See A Team Added For 2015
I am starting to think we might not even see ten teams on the grid at Melbourne with Caterham being in administration and Marussia folding after trying to make an eleventh hour revival to be on the grid at Abu Dhabi. Maybe someone buys Caterham but who would want to enter Formula One at this team? Gene Haas' team is schedule to appear in 2016 but I will only believe it when I see it

18. Ferrari Will Find Their Groove By Monaco
They never really found their groove. Fernando Alonso carried the weight all season long with Kimi Räikkönen's lone impressive race being at Spa.

19. The Russian Grand Prix Will Happen
It did happen but it was probably the worst race of the season.

20. Honda Will Have Kimiya Sato (no relation to Takuma) Number by the End of the Year
I doubt Honda is looking to hire Kimiya Sato as he wasn't that impressive in his rookie season of GP2 scoring only two points all season. However, Sato did win the Auto GP championship despite missing two rounds.

21. No One Has A Clue What is Going to Happen. Not Even Me
I think it became clear quickly that Mercedes were going to dominate and it was going to be tough for anyone else to compete. To be honest, it appears 2015 might not be much different.