The theme of the weekend is season finales and penultimate rounds across four different continents. Two-wheels and four are writing the final pages of the their 2014 seasons and while some story lines just need a few final touches, others have yet to reach their climax.
MotoGP Closes Out 2014 at Valencia
Marc Márquez locked up the 2014 world championship at Motegi last month but Márquez is chasing history. Victory in his homeland would give Márquez the record for most victories in a season, breaking the record of twelve that Mick Doohan set in 1997. Like Doohan, Márquez has a chance to get his 13th victory on home soil as the 1997 season finale was held at Phillip Island. However, Doohan retired from that race.
While Márquez is a country mile ahead of everybody, the Yamaha teammates will fight it out for runner-up. Valentino Rossi has a 12-point cushion to Jorge Lorenzo, however the Majorcan has finished on the podium in nine consecutive races. Two riders who know their final positions in the 2014 world championship are Dani Pedrosa and Andrea Dovizioso. They will finish fourth and fifth respectively in the world championship regardless if they win on Sunday or decide to skip the weekend and just head to the beach.
The back half of the top ten is still up in the air as five riders could finish sixth. Pol Espargaró is currently sixth with 126 points but seven points behind him is his Tech3 Yamaha teammate Bradley Smith and the Brit has finished better than Espargaró in the last two rounds. Pol's brother Aleix is nine points back after retiring from the last two races. Stefan Bradl is coming off his third, fourth-place finish and trails Pol by 17 points. Andrea Iannone currents sits in tenth and would need to win and have Pol fail to score to pass him in the championship. As unlikely as that seems, Iannone might not even race this weekend after injuring his left hip in Malaysia.
Iannone has a 13-point advantage over Álvaro Bautista for tenth in the championship. For the Spaniard to pass the Italian, Bautista needs at least a fourth place finish. His best finish in 2014 was third at Le Mans. Twelve points cover Scott Redding, Hiroshi Aoyama and Cal Crutchlow in the championship. Yonny Hernández rounds out the top fifteen and he is 11 points clear of Nicky Hayden in sixteenth.
Valencia will mark the return of Suzuki with Randy de Puniet as their driver. The manufacture will return to full-time competition in 2015 with Aleix Espargaró and Maverick Viñales as their riders. Suzuki's last MotoGP race was Valencia 2011 with Álvaro Bautista. The last points scored for Suzuki was Aragón 2011 when Bautista finished sixth. Suzuki's last podium was 2008 at Brno when Loris Capirossi finished third. Suzuki's last victory was the 2007 French Grand Prix when Chris Vermeulen won from 12th on the grid in a very wet race.
Pedrosa leads all riders with six victories at Circuit Ricardo Tormo, half coming in MotoGP. Márquez's lone Valencia victory was in Moto2 in 2012. His third place finish last year, locked up the 2013 world championship for Márquez. Rossi won back-to-back Valencia races in 2003 and 2004 but hasn't won since and hasn't finished on the Valencia podium since 2010. Lorenzo won at Valencia last year, his second victory at the track.
Moto3 Title Fight
While the MotoGP and Moto2 world championships have been decided, the Moto3 is still up for grabs between two riders. Álex Márquez, younger brother of Marc, leads the Moto3 championship by eleven points over Australian Jack Miller. Márquez has three wins and nine podiums this season while Miller has five victories and nine podiums. Márquez has finished outside the points only twice while Miller has failed to score in three rounds.
A victory for Miller would mean he would need Márquez to finish fourth or worst. In three of the five races Miller has won, Márquez has finished fourth or worse. The other two, Márquez finished second to Miller. Márquez's best finish in two Valencia starts is fourth. Miller has retired from all three of his previous Valencia starts.
Álex Rins is third in the championship, 14 points ahead of Efrén Vázquez. Both have won two races this season. Romano Fenati is fifth and has four victories but has finished outside the points on six occasions. Aleix Masbou won his first career race at Brno and is sixth in the championship. Enea Bastianini is the top rookie in seventh who has two runner-up finishes, including to Masbou at Brno. He is one point ahead of Isaac Viñales. Danny Kent won the 2012 Moto3 race from Valencia. Brits have won the last two Moto3 races held at Valencia in even years. Bradley Smith won in 2010. Kent is ninth in the championship, six back of Bastianini. Brad Binder and Miguel Oliveira are tied for tenth. Binder's best finish is second at Sachsenring. Oliveira's best finish is third at Assen.
Super Formula Ends With Two at Suzuka
Seven drivers could leave the Suzuka doubleheader as the 2014 Super Formula champion, four of which are former champions. Kazuki Nakajima enters with 33 points as the 2012 champion looks for his second title. He is four points clear of João Paulo de Oliveira. The Brazilian won the 2010 championship. Despite each missing a round, André Lotterer and Loïc Duval are each 6.5 points behind Nakajima. Lotterer won the 2011 championship while Duval won the title in 2009.
Hiroaki Ishiura is ten points back of Nakajima in fifth. Ishiura has never won a Super Formula race despite this being his fifth season and his first since 2011. His best finish this season was second at Motegi. James Rossiter is 12.5 points back of Nakajima. The journeyman Rossiter is in his first season of Super Formula and his best finish was second in the season opener at Suzuka back in April. Yuji Kunimoto is 16 points behind Nakajima. Kunimoto has never won in Super Formula but did finish second at Autopolis earlier this year.
No driver has more than two wins this season. de Oliveira and Lotterer each have two victories with the Brazilian winning at Fuji and Motegi and the German winning at Fuji and Autopolis. Duval won the season opener at Suzuka and Nakajima won at Fuji. The most recent winner was Tomoki Nojiri at Sportsland SUGO. It was the rookie's first win and first points in his Super Formula career. Nojiri's victory was Honda's first of the season. de Oliveira and Lotterer came together on lap one at SUGO, ending both their races.
Three of Nakajima's six career victories have come at Suzuka. de Oliveira's lone Suzuka victory came in his 2010 championship season. Since that victory, the Brazilian has two podiums in his last eight Suzuka starts. Lotterer is by far the most experience of the championship contenders at Suzuka. He has made 28 starts with 3 victories, 12 podiums and 18 top fives. Duval has made ten less starts than Lotterer at Suzuka but has 5 victories including this year's season opener, 7 podiums and 9 top fives.
Ishiura finished third in the season opener. In his previous eight starts at Suzuka, his best finish was fourth and he has finished in the points in half of his Suzuka appearances. As you know, Rossiter finished second in his lone Suzuka start earlier this year and Kunimoto has never finished in the points at Suzuka.
Brazilian Grand Prix
It is a two-horse race in Formula One and both horses belong to Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton extended his championship lead to 24 points after his fifth consecutive victory and tenth of the season last week at Austin. His teammate Nico Rosberg finished second for the third consecutive race and sixth time in the last seven races. No matter what happens in São Paulo, the championship will come down to the season finale at Abu Dhabi.
Daniel Ricciardo finished third at Austin and the Red Bull driver remains third in the championship. He is 58 points clear of Valtteri Bottas. Six points behind the Finn and tied for fifth is Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso. Jenson Button remained seventh in the championship after finishing outside the points at Austin. Felipe Massa closed the gap to the 2009 world champion to 11 points with a fourth place finish at Austin. Nico Hülkenberg is seven points behind Massa as Hülkenberg heads to the site of his first career pole position, which came four years ago.
Kevin Magnussen rounds out the top ten, six points ahead of Sergio Pérez and Kimi Räikkönen. Vergne is 13th in the championship with 22 points, Romain Grosjean and Daniil Kvyat each have eight points and Pastor Maldonado and Jules Bianchi each have two points. Sauber has yet to score this season with their best finish being 11th by Adrian Sutil at Melbourne and Budapest. This will be the second consecutive round with only 18 cars since Caterham and Marussia went into administration prior to the United States Grand Prix.
Red Bull has won four of the last five Brazilian Grands Prix (two for Vettel, two for Mark Webber). Jenson Button's 2012 Brazilian Grand Prix victory is the most recent for him and McLaren. Ferrari has not won at Interlagos since Felipe Massa won in 2008 when the Brazilian appeared to have won the world title only to have it be taken from him as Lewis Hamilton passed Timo Glock for fifth. To date, it is the most recent victory for Massa. Fernando Alonso has never won in Brazil. His best finish is second and the Spaniard has eight podiums in twelve starts at Interlagos. His other results are two, fourth place finishes and two retirements.
Mercedes has never finished on the podium at Interlagos and their drivers combine for one total podium. The lone podium was a third by Hamilton in 2009. Rosberg's best finish at Interlagos was fourth in 2007.
NASCAR in Phoenix
All four spots for the championship deciding race at Homestead are still up for grabs as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Phoenix for the penultimate round of the 2014 season.
Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin entered tied for the points lead with 4072 points, thirteen points ahead of fifth. Two points back of the former Gibbs teammates is Ryan Newman.
Fourth through eighth are covered by six points. Jeff Gordon is fourth, one point ahead of Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. Brad Keselowski is five points back of Gordon and Harvick is six points out.
Harvick enters with five victories, the most all-time at Phoenix. He has won three of the last four and the last two fall Phoenix races. Harvick has eight top fives and 12 top tens in 23 Phoenix starts. Gordon and Edwards each have two Phoenix victories with Gordon have 11 top fives and 21 top tens in 31 Phoenix starts. Both of Gordon's victories have come in the spring race. Edwards won the 2010 fall race and has seven top fives and 12 top tens in 20 starts. Newman, Kenseth and Hamlin each have a victory at Phoenix. Kenseth's lone Phoenix came back in 2002. Newman won the 2010 spring race and Hamlin won the 2012 spring race.
The Penske drivers, Logano and Keselowski are the only Chase drivers without victories. Keselowski's best career Phoenix finish came this spring when he finished third. Logano's best finish at the one mile track is also third, which came in the 2010 fall race. Team Penske's lone win at Phoenix came in 1998 with Rusty Wallace as their driver.
Chevrolet has won nine of the last eleven Phoenix fall races and since the introduction of the spring race, Chevrolet has won 16 of the last 21 Phoenix races.
Over/Unders
1. Over or Under: 184.5 points being Andrea Dovizioso's total for the 2014 season?
2. Over or Under: 4.5 riders within one second of the Moto3 race winner?
3. Over or Under: 1.5 retirements between the seven championship contenders in the final weekend at Suzuka?
4. Over or Under: 0.5 laps in wet conditions at Interlagos?
5. Over or Under: 1.5 cautions involving Chase drivers?
Last Week's Over/Unders
1. Over: Mercedes led all 56 laps.
2. Over: Four German cars (Three Audis, one Porsche) finished in the top five in the Baku championship race.
3. Under: Only a total of three podiums for British riders at Qatar.
4. Over: The Lotus CLM P1/01 ran 171 laps at Shanghai.
5. Over: 6 Chase drivers finished ahead of Matt Kenseth.
Predictions
1. Randy de Puniet finishes in the points.
2. Álex Márquez wins the Moto3 championship.
3. André Lotterer wins the Super Formula championship.
4. Mercedes gets their first podium at Interlagos.
5. A winless driver will advance to the championship race.
Last Week's Predictions
1. At least 17 cars will finish the United States Grand Prix (Wrong. Only 15 cars finished).
2. Maximilian Götz wins the Blancpain Sprint Series championship (Correct).
3. Sylvain Guintoli's consecutive podium streak ends at Qatar (Wrong. Guintoli swept the weekend and won the title).
4. Extreme Speed puts a car on the LMP2 podium (Correct. They finished second in class).
5. At least one Chase driver will finish outside the top twenty-five at Texas (Correct. Jeff Gordon finished 29th).
Overall: 3/5. Running Tally: 22.5/40
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