Musings From the Weekend: Ten Years Late

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Dakar Rally began, and a few notable names are already out. Formula E has confirmed it will not be returning to Hyderabad in 2024 as it is less than a week from the season opener. Formula One teams are announcing dates for announcements. Williams will be in New York. It has been a rather quiet opening week of the year in the motorsports world. Jett Lawrence made some noise, winning the Supercross season opener on debut from Anaheim, and Supercross is where we will continue...

Ten Years Late

If you were enjoying the Supercross season opener this weekend from Anaheim, you may have notice something different. You may have felt it Sunday morning. There might have been a little more spring in your step, less weight on your shoulders and in your face. A more relaxed feeling. 

It is probably because you were not up until the early hours of Sunday morning for the 450cc main event. Instead of reading 1:00 am as you dropped into bed, it was 11:00 pm, a little late but not terribly late for a Saturday night, and you could easily slide under the sheets and into a slumber. 

Though the race was in Anaheim, it began at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, 5:00 p.m. local. This is the new normal for Supercross in 2024 as the latest start time will be 8:30 p.m. Eastern. My only question is what took so long? 

Over a decade ago, before Formula One was booming in the United States, NASCAR was starting to slip, American sports car racing was still split and IndyCar was still desperate for anything good, everyone looked at Supercross and Rallycross as future series to boom. The reasons? The races were short, accommodating to shortening attention spans, and they could be held in urban surroundings, easily fitting into a football or baseball stadium, places people regularly visit and can contain 40,000 to 70,000 people. Supercross and Rallycross were sold as geared to Millennials, a group that was in its teen years and the eldest were in their 20s

Last decade, Supercross was praised for its potential, and rightfully so. Supercross was having no issues filling venues while NASCAR and IndyCar notably saw fewer spectators coming through their turnstiles and many tracks removed seats. A race window wasn't a three-hour marathon, but a segmented experience building to a finale. There were consequences with the heat races and last chance qualifiers, and only 22 riders, a fraction that started the night, would compete for the victory. Not to mention, there was variety between the 250cc and 450cc classes. It was two for the price of one. 

Supercross has made minor adjustments to how it does things but it has not shedded its identity. The races might now go to a time limit and semifinal races might be gone from a evening's program, but Supercross is the same. It has not increased gimmicks or tweaked the championship in hopes of increasing attention. Creating a championship that combines Supercross and Motocross seasons actually feels like something that should have been done a long time ago, the same with shifting start times.

The earlier start didn't seem to keep people away at the gate. Anaheim was full as it normally is, and I have a feeling other West Coast venues form San Francisco to San Diego, Seattle to Glendale, Arizona will not see a drop in attendance. 

It does feel like this move came ten years late. 

Over the last decade, I wondered why Supercross kept starting at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, especially when races were on Saturdays. These weren't Tuesday races like a Los Angeles Lakers game meant for the locals. This is a national series looking for a national audience and a fair number of its races were buried late at night. And Supercross consistently started at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. Even the season finales, whether it be from Las Vegas or Salt Lake City started that late. The championship was decided at 1:00 a.m. Eastern on a Sunday morning, lost to the night, and easily forgotten.

This is a prime time of the year for Supercross. It is the only motorsports in town in the United States, and it has two months to get everyone's attention. There is the 24 Hours of Daytona at the end of the month and the Daytona 500 isn't until the middle of February. Supercross has owned this window for decades, and it has always had the television coverage, whether it be on ESPN2, Speed, FS1, NBCSN, USA or Peacock. It does a good job, but it has left something on the table. 

It should be bigger, not overwhelmingly bigger, but bigger. For as much as we talk about Supercross and praise it, it doesn't even have the attention of the motorsports crowd. Look at how rare it is to see Supercross on Racer Magazine's website. It has no presence on Motorsport.com. For a brief moment, The Athletic's Jeff Gluck was giving it serious attention, but that has since subsided. 

The lack of attention isn't because of lack of action or lack of fans. It is just somehow forgotten though acknowledged for everything Supercross does right and as the only thing around in the early days of winter. 

Though Supercross hasn't made this move until now, the series is doing fine. This hasn't been a bad decision that has put the series in a dire position. It has a following. It fills stadiums. The racing is good. Sponsorship is not lacking, but it could be better.

In 2024, Supercross has finally made the move to maximize viewership across the United States. It is a different time. The series is now mainly on a streaming service, Peacock to be specific, and while streaming is the future, there is still a more reliably audience on network television and cable. The prime position was a decade ago when it was on a cable sports network every Saturday night and could have become a destination. Competition has only increased. Supercross is still going up against the NFL playoffs, and we will see more basketball, NBA and college, over the airwaves as we wait for spring to arrive.

This move should have been done a long time ago, but hopefully this takes Supercross up a level. Those Millennials are getting older. The 15-year olds are now 25, hopefully out of college and making a living with some change to spend on live events. The 30-year olds are now 40, and might have a few kids of their own, developing their own interests and passions. Favorable start times is one less hurdle in the way for viewership. After many years of waiting, Supercross could finally be positioned for an upward bump.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Jett Lawrence, but did you know...

RJ Hampshire won the 250cc season opener from Anaheim.

Dakar Rally Stage Winners: 

Cars

Prologue: Mattias Ekström

Stage 1: Guillaume De Mévius

Stage 2: Stéphane Peterhansel

Bikes

Prologue: Tosha Schareina

Stage 1: Ross Branch

Stage 2: José Ignacio Cornejo

UTV

Prologue: Xavier De Soultrait

Stage 1: Rodrigo Varela

Stage 2: Gerard Farrés

Light Proto

Prologue: Eryk Goczał

Stage 1: Eryk Goczał

Stage 2: Eryk Goczał

Quad

Prologue: Francisco Moreno Flores

Stage 1: Marcelo Medeiros

Stage 2: Marcelo Medeiros

Truck

Prologue: Janus van Kasteren

Stage 1: Janus van Kasteren

Stage 2: Janus van Kasteren

Coming Up This Weekend

The Dakar Rally continues.

Supercross heads north to San Francisco.

Formula E starts its new season in 2024.

The Chili Bowl.

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Juncos Hollinger Racing

We might be only days into 2024, and the first race of the IndyCar season still might be over two months away, but the time has come to look ahead to the 2024 season. All of autumn is behind us and winter is the countdown to the new season. Most seats are accounted for and we have reached the part of the offseason where all it feels like the only thing remaining is the waiting.

There will be some changes to driver lineups when we reach St. Petersburg in 65 days time. Juncos Hollinger Racing has shaken up half of its drivers. In its first year as a full-time two-car effort the results were good, but JHR failed to show some of its bursts of speed from 2022. Speed is not the main cause for the dismissal of Callum Ilott, but the team is hoping a little more experience will take it further up the grid in 2024.

At First Glance... Is there any reason we should believe Juncos Hollinger Racing can win a race?

Seriously? Why should we think Juncos Hollinger Racing will be in contention to win races just because it added Romain Grosjean? 

The team has never finished on the podium. Last year, it had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes. As an organization it had an average finish of 17.5, had one top ten starting position and the team's average starting position was 20.617. 

And adding a driver with a career average finish of 14th, who is coming off his worst season based on average finish, and has never won an IndyCar race, is all of a sudden going to lift IndyCar's smallest team to the top of the pile? 

Call me a skeptic, but I don't think Grosjean alone will be enough. This team is more than just one piece away. 

Also consider how few teams win in IndyCar. It is a series where any team can win, but it can be a rare occurrence. It has been over a decade since A.J. Foyt Racing has won, and it had two fully funded cars for most of that time. Dale Coyne Racing is over five years removed from its most recent victory. Meyer Shank Racing's lone victory, the 2021 Indianapolis 500, is looking more like beginner's luck with each passing day. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has one victory in the last three seasons. Ed Carpenter Racing has one victory in the last seven seasons. Even the mighty and mouthy Arrow McLaren didn't win in 2023. 

Why should we believe JHR will do it considering all we know?

There just needs to be one day, and Grosjean came close to that day with Dale Coyne Racing. He arguably should have won once with DCR. Grosjean came close to that day with Andretti Autosport. He arguably should have won at least once, if not twice, with Andretti. JHR showed bursts of qualifying speed in 2022. Those were almost nonexistent in 2023. Considering the temperament of Grosjean combined with where JHR was last year, this does not look a great match on paper.

Grosjean will not have a senior teammate besides him. As much praise Agustín Canapino earned in his rookie season for his results, his average finish was still 19.706, equal with Devlin DeFrancesco, behind Jack Harvey, who was fired three races early, and also behind Santino Ferrucci and Hélio Castroneves. Even with some development, Canapino is a long way away from being a contender. 

The hope might be for something grand, but JHR needs something a little greater than hope. 

2023 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 5th (St. Petersburg and Laguna Seca)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 8th (Portland)

Championship Finishes: 16th (Callum Ilott), 21st (Agustín Canapino)

Romain Grosjean - #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

13.9722: Average points per race for Callum Ilott in 36 races with Juncos Hollinger Racing.

19.0638: Average points per race for Grosjean in 47 career starts

23: Lead lap finishes in his IndyCar career.

28: Drivers who had their first career victory came in their 50th career start or later.

What does a championship season look like for him?

It starts with some impressive drives from the back to front, taking a 17th starting position and turning it into a sixth or a 15th and putting it on the podium. After a string of top ten finishes, Grosjean has his best Indianapolis 500, completes all 200 laps and takes home a respectable top ten result. 

From the opening stanza of the season, JHR is able to build off the results and the qualifying pace improves, putting Grosjean into the second round of qualifying regularly and sneaking him into the Fast Six on occasion. It is in the middle third of the season where Grosjean gets his first victory of the season and it feels like a championship is practical. 

Damage is limited at Iowa, but it requires another victory or two mixed in with the oval races dotting the final third of the season. Consistent top ten results turned into top five results on road and street courses gets him to Nashville with a puncher's chance at the title and JHR and Grosjean pull off the improbable with a victory in the finale to take home the Astor Cup.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Not much different from what we saw from Grosjean's first three seasons in IndyCar except fewer trips to the podium. The note about Callum Illot's top five finishes are they came on days of survival. St. Petersburg had a number of accidents, as did Laguna Seca and both were disjointed affairs. Ilott could keep his nose out of trouble and get a result. Grosjean is more known for getting his nose into trouble than avoiding it. 

There will be a promising day or two where Grosjean is mixing it up with a notable name, Will Power, Alexander Rossi, Colton Herta, and Grosjean is in fifth, sixth or seventh and it feels like JHR is trending in the right direction, but there will be rough patches, and some of those will be due to Grosjean's only failings; clipping a barrier, botching a restart, etc. There will also be weekends where the team is off and everyone is frustrated. 

Grosjean could increase his top ten finish total from last year and still lose positions in the championship. A year where he has four to six top ten finishes but ends up 14th to 18th in the championship is conceivable.

Agustín Canapino - #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

3: Times Canapino was the top JHR finisher in 2023.

0: Times Canapino was the top JHR finisher when Callum Illot did not retire from the race. 

12: Starts outside the top twenty in 2023

18: Best starting position in the 2023 season

What does a championship season look like for him?

Something similar to Scott McLaughlin's sophomore season, only better. Victory and podium finishes early, but instead of having a slump in the spring and early summer, his results remain in the top ten, with a strong day at Indianapolis with perhaps some qualifying points to help pad his total. 

Once we get into summer, Canapino is constantly in the top five and wins a few times. These results might have to come after some tough qualifying performances, but, like in Grosjean's best case scenario, the team is improving throughout the season.

Any championship for Canapino will come down to the final race and a tough battle with a few notable drivers. It will be a true David vs. Goliath, Cinderella story. It will likely come down to Canapino overcoming a deficit in the final race, having a few fortunate circumstances go in his favor and Canapino having one of his best days to take an unthinkable title.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

About as good as how he did last season.

Canapino could be worse in 2024, but not noticeably worse. As celebrated as Canapino's rookie season was, it was still not a very good season. For most other rookies, those results would not be something to hang your hat on. The hope would be for a giant leap forward in year two. That feels like asking a lot.

In eight of 17 races last year, he started and finished outside the top twenty. He started outside the top twenty in eight of 12 road/street course races. He had five lead lap finishes, three of which were street courses and two of those races had five cautions or more, races where he was kept in the pack. 

Canapino could improve in all of those areas but gain almost no ground from where he was in the championship last season.

The one thing in Canapino's favor is he didn't get into many accidents. The only one that was because Canapino went over the edge was Indianapolis. His other retirements were Nashville, where it was a mechanical issue, and Portland, which was another mechanical failure. Canapino wasn't tearing corners off race cars on a regular basis. If you avoid doing that, you will always do slightly better than your pace. Any increase in accidents and the results will look much worse. 

Looking at the 2023 results, it is difficult to imagine how Canapino is going to get four or five top ten finishes in 2024. One or two could fall his way with high attrition rates or playing the right strategy, but that is the best case scenario at the moment. Breaking the top twenty in the championship would be a good year for the Argentine in year two.

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.

2024 Supercross Season Preview

It does not take long for the first motorsports season of the New Year to come along, as the Supercross season is ready to get underway less than a week into 2024. This marks the second season of the SuperMotocross Championship, a combination of the 17-round Supercross season and the 11-round Motocross season, culminating in a three-race playoff to determine the SuperMotocross champion.

The Supercross season brings an immense amount of excitement. New riders are only making the series stronger as a number of other riders are returning from injuries. Riders have changed teams, including the defending champion.

Schedule

The 17-round season begins with a four-week California residency, starting in Anaheim for the traditional season opener on January 6. A week later, the series heads up to San Francisco for the first trip to the Golden Gate City since 2010. On January 20, Supercross heads down to San Diego before closing January with the second Anaheim date, the first Triple Crown event of the season.

February begins indoors with a trip to Detroit on February 3. Supercross heads back west, this time to Glendale, Arizona on February 10, the final round before an off-week. 

The lone Texas round this season will be in Arlington on February 24, one week prior to Daytona Bike Week. The midpoint of the season will be a new venue and city for Supercross. On March 9, Supercross visits Birmingham, Alabama for the first time. It is the first Supercross event in Alabama since a round was held at Talladega Superspeedway in 1984. 

The second Triple Crown race will be in Indianapolis on March 16 before heading to Seattle the following week. After one year away, St. Louis returns and hosts a round on March 30, the final Triple Crown event. 

There will be a one-week break before Foxborough on April 13 with Nashville following on April 20. For the first time since 1980, Philadelphia is on the Supercross schedule and the City of Brotherly Love will host the series on April 27. The Rocky Mountains close out the 2024 season. Denver will be on May 4 with the Salt Lake City season finale on May 11.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing

Chase Sexton: #1 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition

What did he do in 2023: Sexton won the 2023 Supercross championship with six victories, including three consecutive to close out the season. Sexton finished with 372 points and he stood on the podium 13 times. Despite missing three rounds in the Motocross season, Sexton was fourth in the championship with 15 podium finishes in 16 starts.

What to expect in 2024: Fortune may have played its hand a little more into Sexton's title last year than most others, but that does not negate the good season he was having up to that point. He did have a bit of an issue staying on the bike, especially while running at the front. Sexton should still have competitive races, but he will not dictate whether or not the championship stays with him.

Aaron Plessinger: #7 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition

What did he do in 2023: Plessinger missed three Supercross races, but he had two podium results, including a second in the Salt Lake City season finale, putting him seventh in the championship on 236 points. In Motocross, he was third in the championship with five podium finishes and 19 top five finishes from 22 starts.

What to expect in 2024: A typical season with a few good results but other races where he is not really in the picture. Plessinger will find it tough to beat Sexton let alone the rest of the grid. If everyone stays healthy, he will be fighting just to remain in the top ten of the championship.

Team Honda HRC

Jett Lawrence: #18 Honda CRF450R

What did he do in 2023: Lawrence was the 2023 250cc Supercross West champion with six victories and finishing on the podium in all nine races. He moved to the 450cc class for the Motocross season and he had a perfect season, winning all 22 races. To cap off the season, Lawrence claimed the inaugural 450cc SuperMotocross championship.

What to expect in 2024: A championship push is the bare minimum for Lawrence. He has already shown his might in the 450cc class. The SuperMotocross playoff races were effectively Supercross events. It is easy to say the championship will go through him, but Lawrence has yet to race against Eli Tomac in 450cc competition. Lawrence will win races, but after a stellar second half of 2023, things might not be as easy at the start of 2024.

Hunter Lawrence: #96 Honda CRF450R

What did he do in 2023: With seven victories from ten races, Lawrence won the 250cc Supercross East championship. In the 250cc Motocross season, he won seven times and stood on the podium 16 times to take the championship by 20 points over Justin Cooper.

What to expect in 2024: While his brother Jett will get most of the attention, Hunter Lawrence should string together some good results. He definitely has the ability to win on his own, but he will more likely be competing to break into the top five in the championship than for the title.

Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing

Cooper Webb: #2 Yamaha YZ450F

What did he do in 2023: A concussion suffered in Nashville ended Webb's season three races early. He won twice, finished on the podium nine times and he was in the top five in all 14 races prior to his concussion. In the Motocross season, he had three podium finishes and finished no worse than sixth in the first four rounds, but left KTM midseason.

What to expect in 2024: Changing teams and joining the team with one of the best riders in series history will not make it easy for Webb. He had a great season going last year before his concussion. Webb will not be absent often at the front, but I do wonder if this is the season we see some regression.

Eli Tomac: #3 Yamaha YZ450F

What did he do in 2023: Tomac led the Supercross championship entering the penultimate round in Denver. In the Denver main event, Tomac suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon about three minutes into the race. This knocked him out of the race and out of the season finale, allowing Sexton to take the title unchallenged. Tomac had six victories and ten podium finishes prior to the injury.  

What to expect in 2024: It is hard to tell. Tomac has been out for nearly a year after his Achilles injury. There is no guarantee his fitness will be at the highest level. We know he can win races, but as a rider who has been eyeing retirement, this could be the blow that takes him out of the picture for race victories and championships. A stretch of hardship would not be a surprise, but neither would Tomac returning and picking up right where he left off.

Justin Cooper: #32 Yamaha YZ450F

What did he do in 2023: Cooper ran five rounds in the 450cc class in Supercross last year with his focus being on the 250cc Motocross season. He had finishes of seventh, seventh, tenth, ninth and sixth in his first taste of the 450cc class. In the Motocross season, Cooper ended up second in he 250-class with four victories, 12 podium finishes and 18 top five finishes.

What to expect in 2024: It doesn't feel like Cooper will be able to pick up the slack if either or both Webb and/or Tomac is off their game. Cooper can certainly score good results and gobs of points. It could be enough to sneak on the podium a few times, but regular top five finishes would be a great season for him.

Progressive Insurance ECSTAR Suzuki

Ken Roczen: #94 Suzuki RM-Z450

What did he do in 2023: Roczen picked up Suzuki's first Supercross victory since 2016 when he won at Indianapolis. He had six podium finishes, four of which occurred in the final five races, and he was fourth in the championship. Roczen won the FIM World Supercross championship. 

What to expect in 2024: Roczen was good in 2023, and it feels like good is his highest level. On the right night, he can win a main event, but those nights seldom come around at this stage in his career. With the depth of this field, if riders stay healthy, it will be a challenge for Roczen to crack the top five in the championship. We will see some flashy nights, but they will not be regular occurrences. 

Troy Lee Designs/Red Bull/Gas Gas Factory Racing

Justin Barcia: #51 Gas Gas MC 450F

What did he do in 2023: Barcia got on a heater in the second half of the season. After one podium finish in the first eight races, he had five podium finishes in the next six events, including a victory at the Meadowlands with his worst finish being fourth. However, his season ended early after an accident at Nashville breaking his right collarbone and two ribs. Barcia returned for the final three Motocross rounds where he had three top five finishes in six starts.

What to expect in 2024: Not much more than what we have seen from Barcia previously. There will be the stretch where he looks impressive, but a longer spell where he is rather average. Considering the addition of the Lawrence brothers to the series, I expect Barcia to take a dip in the championship.

Jorge Prado: #111 Gas Gas MC 450F

What did he do in 2023: The Spaniard Prado won the Motocross World Championship with 14 victories from 38 starts. He was classified on the round podium in 16 of 19 rounds as he had an average round finish of third. Prado also won the MX2 championship in 2018 and 2019.  

What to expect in 2024: Prado is only scheduled to run the first three rounds of the season ahead of the MXGP season starting on March 10. This will be new for Prado. The most recent example we have of someone coming from the world championship and running an AMA event was Tim Gajser running the Monster Energy Cup in 2019. Gajser went seventh, fourth and fourth in that event and finished fifth overall. Prado could be on the periphery of the podium in his cameo appearance, but he has what it takes to steal the show. It is not unheard of. Sébastien Tortelli won the 1998 season opener in a cameo appearance just before his world championship season. 

Monster Energy Kawasaki

Adam Cianciarulo: #9 Kawasaki KX450

What did he do in 2023: Cianciarulo had one podium finish and two top five finishes, both of which came in the final two races of the Supercross season. He missed three races and finished ninth in the championship. He was fifth in the Motocross championship with one podium finish. 

What to expect in 2024: Cianciarulo is the career that could have been. Four years ago, he looked prime to take the 450cc class by storm only for injuries to derail his career. It also does not help that Kawasaki is coming off a winless season. He should finish in the top ten of the championship and maybe he gets on the podium a few times.

Jason Anderson: #21 Kawasaki KX450

What did he do in 2023: Anderson had two podium finishes, but missed the final two races in the Supercross season due to a vertebrae injury suffered in Nashville. He wound up sixth in the championship. Anderson missed the first four Motocross rounds, but he had two podium finishes and nine top five finishes in 14 starts and ended up ninth in that championship.

What to expect in 2024: A typical Jason Anderson season, many top five finishes, a fair number of podium results, maybe he sneaks out a victory, but he ends up somewhere between fifth and eighth in the championship.

Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team

Malcolm Stewart: #27 Husqvarna FC450 RE

What did he do in 2023: Stewart only ran the first two races before a knee injury during a midweek practice session, ending his 2023 season before January even ended.

What to expect in 2024: After a promising 2022, it feels like 2023 was a missed opportunity for Stewart and the grid has only improved exponentially. There should be a few races where he will be in the mix, but victory will prove to be elusive. A back half of the top ten in the championship feels like where he will end up.

Christian Craig: #28 Husqavarna FC450 RE

What did he do in 2023: Craig had seven consecutive top ten finishes after finishing outside the top ten in the first four Supercross races, but he missed the final six races of the season after dislocating his hip and right elbow while breaking his arm in practice in Glendale.

What to expect in 2024: Mostly forgettable finishes but a few top ten results as well as Craig falls short of the top ten in the championship.

Phoenix Racing Honda

Dylan Ferrandis: #14 Honda CRF450R

What did he do in 2023: Ferrandis had finishes of fourth, sixth and fifth to open the 2023 Supercross season, but an accident in Houston left him with a concussion and knocked him out for the season. Ferrandis returned for the full Motocross season, where he was second to Jett Lawrence, 151 points back. Ferrandis had 16 podium finishes in 22 races.

What to expect in 2024: Some competitive races and on the right night a victory could go Ferrandis' way, but he could find himself frequently in that solid middle of the pack with Barcia, Anderson and Plessinger as those riders scrap for sixth in the championship.

Twisted Tea/H.E.P. Motorsports Suzuki Racing Team

Kyle Chisholm: #11 Suzuki RM-Z450

What did he do in 2023: Chisholm had two top ten finishes, but he failed to qualify for two races and ended up 15th in the Supercross championship.

What to expect in 2024: A few top ten finishes at best, but ultimately not really mentioned much.

Shane McElrath: #12 Suzuki RM-Z450

What did he do in 2023: After failing to qualify for the 2023 Supercross season opener, McElrath ran the final 16 races with all three of his top ten finishes coming in the final four events, putting him 11th in the championship.

What to expect in 2024: Slightly better than his teammate Chisholm, but nothing earth-shattering when it comes to results. 

The first round of the 2024 AMA Supercross season from Anaheim will be at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on USA and Peacock. 

Musings From the Weekend: This is Where We Start

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Unfortunately, it was a somber end to the year with the passings of Gil de Ferran and Cale Yarborough. The Dubai 24 Hour was delayed two weeks and now conflicts with the 24 Hours of Daytona. DragonSpeed will now be at the 24 Hours of Daytona in LMP2. The Supercross season opener is only a few days away. The Dakar Rally is even closer to beginning. Somebody got a Truck Series ride. DHL is now a Chip Ganassi Racing sponsor. Andretti Autosport is now officially Andretti Global. However, IndyCar's end to 2023 is still on my mind.

This is Where We Start

The final month of 2023 likely did not go the way IndyCar was hoping it would. 

IndyCar announced it was delaying the introduction of the hybrid system until after the Indianapolis 500 in 2024, the exact debut date remains uncertain. Not long after that, Honda issued a statement saying it was considering exiting IndyCar once its contract expires after the 2026 season unless costs were reduced. Honda's suggestion was a spec engine.

It was not a great way to end the year. No one wants to end on bad news. No one wants to end with doom and gloom. It cannot be ignored when it is dower news and going in the opposite direction of where IndyCar hopes to be going. IndyCar spent such a long time with spec engines that returning to them is not what anyone is hoping for, nor does anyone believe it is the magic bullet to increase the number of manufacturers in the series. At best, spec engines keep Honda around and everything remains status quo.

Again, it is not great. However, it is not the end of the world.

Nobody is glad IndyCar finds itself in such a precarious situation, especially when it is keen to the health of the series. As difficult as it is at the moment, there are positives to find within IndyCar. 

The DW12 may be entering its 13th season of competition, but it remains a competitive chassis. Road course and street course races can have a few hundred passes and it doesn't phase us. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing can go from having a car missing the Indianapolis 500 to winning a race and competing for victories in multiple other events. With a few adjustments to the aero kit, it turned Texas from a pedestrian race into a thrilling affair, and ten of 12 Indianapolis 500s during that span have had 30 lead changes or more after none of the first 95 Indianapolis 500s had more than 29. 

The grid will still have north of two-dozen full-time cars and be closer to 30 entries. It wasn't that long ago IndyCar had 22 full-time cars. McLaren is on the grid, a name that was unfathomable not long ago. The competition is rather stout as the series has attracted champions from Supercars, NASCAR, Formula One, sports cars, and junior series drivers from all-around the globe see it as a viable series to make a career. 

There are concerns, and IndyCar must do something different to assure long-term health and success. As good as the DW12 chassis has been, it is time to figure out a new chassis. The DW12 has had a good life. It will be a cost to the teams to buy something new, but series around the world figure out how to introduce new cars much more frequently than IndyCar does and those series manage not to run teams out of business or cause the grid to shrink by 45% simply by upgrading the machinery. 

Japan's Super Formula introduced its third new chassis in the last ten years in 2023, and all three models Dallara constructed. Formula Two has a new car coming in 2024, and the outgoing chassis debuted in 2018. Oh, and Dallara is the chassis supplier in Formula Two as well. I think it is time.

If Honda is saying it will not renew when its contract is up, IndyCar must find a way to increase return on investment for the manufacturers and make the series more attractive to other brands. 

As celebrated as IndyCar is and how lauded the Indianapolis 500 is as the greatest race in the world, since 2013, only two manufacturers have participated in the race. Outside of Lotus' floundering two-car effort in 2012, the last new manufacturer to make its Indianapolis 500 debut was Toyota in 2003. If the race was as prestigious as we say it is, wouldn't more manufacturers try to win it? Wouldn't there be a constant flow of manufacturers in and out of the series in pursuit of this allegedly magnificent, motorsports triumph?

The saying goes, "Necessity is the mother of invention."

IndyCar isn't looking for invention, but it is faced with adaptation, and with Honda looking for the door, it is necessary to do something different. The series must adapt to insure Honda stays, insure Honda stays and attracts another make, or attract another manufacturer or two even if Honda is leaving. New regulations, new business model, something must be done.

Honda has been around since 1994. Nothing lasts forever. Offenhauser hasn't been in the Indianapolis 500 since 1980. Cosworth hasn't had an engine in the race since 1996 and no Cosworth engine has powered an IndyCar since 2008. It isn't a matter of Honda leaving that will hurt the series but the series not being prepared for such a time to come. 

It isn't impossible, but it will require patience, communication and dedication to a plan. Global pandemic and supply chain issues be damned, it is time to stick to a deadline and get the job done.

Effectively, IndyCar has been given a deadline. It could be a lofty task to retain Honda. It could be downright wishful, but Honda has made it clear something must different heading into 2027 to continue participation. The next 12 to 18 months is when the changes must be laid out and announced, and there must be a commitment to those changes and that deadline. 

Honda isn't going to go into September 2026 on the fence on whether or not it will return or not. Honda will likely know by the end of this year, and almost certainly by the middle of 2025 if it is going to continue. The clock is ticking on IndyCar for a new game plan and improving the economics of competing in the series. 

The series knows this. They will work to assure IndyCar remains afloat and does not face hardship in the not-too-distant future. It might not keep Honda, but an attempt will be made, and if it doesn't keep Honda, it must attract someone else. 

This is where we start. It is January 1, 2024. It is clear as day where IndyCar stands and what must be done. The quiet part has been said out-loud and it is no secret that a manufacturer supporting of over half the grids, three of its races and has been one of the most successful makes in IndyCar history is ready to call it time on competing in the series. 

What is going to be done to change the mood, keep a familiar partner involved and draw more into the party? 

We will wait and see where we end. 

Winners While We Were Away

In case you are wondering what is going on in the Andros Trophy, the ice racing championship out of France, Nathanaël Berthon and Dorian Boccolacci split the first round from Val Thorens. Aurélien Panis and Christophe Ferrier split the second round from Andorra. Panis leads the championship with 236 points, 13 points ahed of Yann Ehrlacher and 23 points clear of six-time champion Jean-Baptiste Dubourg with three rounds remaining.

Coming Up This Weekend

Supercross season opener from Anaheim. 

Dakar Rally begins on Saturday.

2024 IndyCar Predictions

We come to the grand finale, our annual final post of the year, the IndyCar predictions for the pending New Year. It has been 110 days since the most recent IndyCar race. There are still 72 days until the next time IndyCar thunders to the green flag. In the interim, drivers have changed teams, as have a few sponsors. A few spots remain open, and we will learn more about the 2024 grid when the New Year comes. 

Even with those holes, we can start looking ahead to the new season. There are drivers coming off historic seasons, some drivers performed below a desirable level in 2023 and hope to do better. Will we see more history? Are we on the verge of a new era of dominance, or will 2024 take us on a turn in a different direction? 

1. Álex Palou will have at least four finishes outside the top ten

Palou is coming off arguably the best season in IndyCar since reunification. Five victories, ten podium finishes, 13 top five finishes and he finished no worse than eighth all season, leaving him with an average finish of 3.7059. He became the first champion to clinch with a race to spare since Sébastien Bourdais in the 2007 Champ Car season. 

There is also the contract situation, where Palou is staying with Ganassi but McLaren is suing him and we will have that hang over another IndyCar season. Off-track drama aside, Palou will continue to strive for more IndyCar history. 

For how good as Palou has been since joining Chip Ganassi Racing, it cannot last forever. Even the best drivers have an off-year. After finishing every race in the top ten, he is going to have a few off days in 2024. Since joining Ganassi, he has never had more than three finishes outside the top ten in a season. That is going to change in 2023. It doesn't mean Palou will have a bad season, but he will not be as bulletproof as last season.

2. Chip Ganassi Racing's top five finish total decreases by at least 25%

Staying with Chip Ganassi Racing, it wasn't just Palou that had a phenomenal 2023 season. It was the entire Ganassi organization. The team won nine of 17 races. It had 19 podium finishes out of a possible 51, and it had 28 top five finishes. 

It wasn't just Álex Palou. Scott Dixon had a fantastic season. Dixon finished seventh or better in 16 of 17 races. If it wasn't for a tiff with Patricio O'Ward at Long Beach, we could have seen two Ganassi drivers finish in the top ten of every race. 

Palou had 13 top five finishes and Dixon had 11. The departed Marcus Ericsson had four top five finishes. That was quite a season, but it will be difficult to duplicate. Ericsson is gone, so that is at least four top five finishes lost. Marcus Armstrong had a good rookie season, and he will be full-time in 2024, but his best finish was seventh. Armstrong should breakthrough, but it is not guaranteed he will match the 2023 output.

It cannot be assumed Palou and Dixon will match their output either. Along with Armstrong, Linus Lundqvist will be full-time after a good cameo in 2023. The team will expand to five cars with Kyffin Simpson moving up from Indy Lights. Ganassi will have the numbers, but that does not mean it will get the results. 

We are looking at 21 top five finishes or fewer from Ganassi. That could be eight top five finishes from each Palou and Dixon and two from each of Lundqvist and Armstrong, and the team would still be two short of disproving this prediction. 

3. Every driver that did not win in 2023 but won in 2022 will win in 2024

That means Will Power, Alexander Rossi, Patricio O'Ward and Colton Herta will all win a race. It might sound like a stretch, but are all of these drivers going to be winless for another season?

For Power and O'Ward, victory feels inevitable in 2024. O'Ward probably should have won once in 2023. Power is driving for Penske. It will line up for him. Rossi is a greater question mark than O'Ward though they are McLaren teammates. Rossi had his own slumps at Andretti Autosport. A second year at McLaren should help him and he should be in better positions to compete for victories. 

Herta is in an odd spot. There wasn't really a race in 2023 where you felt Herta should have won. Andretti Autosport was spotty, seemingly only able to get one car to click or none of the cars to click. Herta has the ability to win races. Things should lineup for him in 2024. 

We will chalk off 2023 as an off-year for all of these drivers. They will be back on the top step of the podium in 2024.

4. Josef Newgarden will finish third-place in at least one street course race

Four victories, including an Indianapolis 500 triumph, would be a great year for most drivers. It didn't quite feel that way for Newgarden. Late troubles saw him fall out of the championship mix and end up fifth in the championship, his worst championship finish since 2018. 

For as good as we saw Newgarden on ovals, his road and street course form took a dip in 2023. His only podium finish on a road or street course was second at Road America. His average finish in street races was ninth. He finished outside the top ten in five road/street course events. 

Oval success is good, but you must be good on road and street courses if you want to win the IndyCar championship. Those make up nearly two-thirds of the calendar.

This is a very specific prediction. Why is it a very specific prediction? 

Newgarden has not finished third since the 2020 season opener at Texas. He has not finished third on a road course since Road America in 2019. 

However, the only time Josef Newgarden has finished third in a street course race was the 2017 Grand Prix of Long Beach, his second start with Team Penske. It feels improbable that he would be pushing over seven years since he finished third in a street course race. That streak will end in 2024.

5. McLaren will lead at least 100 laps over the final eight races

It has already been covered, but McLaren started 2023 with six brilliant performances that makes it more unfathomable the team did not win one of them. The three-car team led over a quarter of the laps run in that six-race period. 

As for the final 11 races, McLaren led only 50 laps, just 3.448% of the laps run. Another winless season is unacceptable, and it shouldn't be the case with O'Ward and Rossi leading the way with David Malukas joining the fold. 

If there is one thing that helps McLaren with this prediction it is Malukas has been good at Gateway. There are also two Milwaukee races that could play into Malukas' and McLaren's favor. This team is going to more than double the laps it leads in the second half of the season compared to 2023. It should yield a few victories as well.

6. Romain Grosjean averages less than 17 points per start

Moving to Juncos Hollinger Racing, Grosjean hopes the third team is the charm in his IndyCar career as the Frenchman continues to search for his first career victory. 

There were a few performances that were good enough for victory, whether it was a pair of races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course with Dale Coyne Racing as a rookie in 2021, a few good runs at Long Beach, a deflating defeat at St. Petersburg or a losing battle at Barber Motorsports Park, Grosjean has been there, but it just hasn't gone his way so far. 

It will be an uphill battle at JHR, a team that has two top five finishes in 52 IndyCar appearances and has never finished on the podium. This is also a significant change at JHR as Grosjean is replacing Callum Ilott, who is responsible for JHR's best finishes after two growing years. 

Grosjean has had some close calls with victories, but he has shown some warts in his past two IndyCar seasons. He has been 13th in the championship each of the last two years. In 2023, he scored 32 fewer points than he scored finishing 13th in 2022. 

After finishing second in consecutive races at Long Beach and Barber, Grosjean had one top ten finish in the final 13 races of the season, a sixth at Nashville. His average finish was 15.176, only 0.118 positions better than Ilott. 

An average of 17 points per race would earn him 289 points. That would have been good enough for 13th last year in the championship as Rinus VeeKay was 14th on 277 points. I don't think Grosjean is going to crack the top 13 for a third consecutive year and I expect a step back.

7. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have at least three races where all three cars finishing in the top ten

No team had a more Dr. Jekyell and Mr. Hyde season than Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing in 2023. 

When the team was on, it looked like the one of the best in IndyCar and was taking it to Penske, Ganassi and was clear of McLaren and Andretti. When this team was lost, it was fighting with Dale Coyne Racing and not really challenging for the top ten. 

Christian Lundgaard lifted the team to an eighth-place championship finish, better than the average driver could likely yield from such a ride, and Graham Rahal recovered after a rough start to finish 15th in the championship. The third car continued to struggle and it led to Jack Harvey being dismissed with three races remaining in the season. 

Lundgaard and Rahal will return while Pietro Fittipaldi moves into the #30 Honda in what will be Fittipaldi's first IndyCar appearance in nearly three years and in what will be his first full season in IndyCar after making his debut six years ago. Fittipaldi is a little unknown, but he looked good in 2018, a year where his final starts were made while still recovering from injuries suffered at Spa-Francorchamps in FIA World Endurance Championship competition. 

Last year, RLLR never had all three cars finish in the top ten in a single race. It had double top ten finishes in five races. I think the team makes a step forward and has all three cars competing at a higher level. There will be at least three races where every RLLR car is in the top ten.

8. Tom Blomqvist's average finish will be greater than 20.0

There were a fair number of unexpected debutants in 2023 that foreshadowed full-time IndyCar roles. Blomqvist was one of them, stepping into the #60 Meyer Shank Racing Honda for three races while Simon Pagenaud was sidelined. 

It was a rude-awakening for the Briton. Blomqvist was taken out on the opening lap on debut in Toronto. He was then a lap down in 24th at Portland after starting 27th out of 27 cars, and his Laguna Seca race ended after contact with only 61 laps completed. 

I don't think 2024 will be much better. IndyCar will be his focus after he made these late appearances while focused on IMSA competition, but Blomqvist is making this move with his only single-seater experience in the last ten years being 23 Formula E races from 2018 through 2021. His best finish in Formula E was eighth.

It will be ten years since his final Formula Three season when Blomqvist finished second to Esteban Ocon and nine points ahead of Max Verstappen. He is also making this move with Meyer Shank Racing, which has been woeful for the last two seasons. It currently isn't the best place for a driver to drop into IndyCar after a decade in sports car racing. 

Maybe it works out and MSR's lack of a sports car program elevates the IndyCar team with more focus on Blomqvist and Felix Rosenqvist. I just don't see it, and considering Hélio Castroneves had an average finish of 17.294 and the #60 car had an average of 20.0588. Simon Pagenaud's average was 19.125 before his accident. 

The pieces aren't adding up to think we are going to see much of an improvement.

9. A.J. Foyt Racing will have multiple top ten finishes

For a team that had one top five finish for the entire 2023 season, it sure had everyone raving. 

All anyone remembers from A.J. Foyt's 2023 season is Santino Ferrucci was third in the Indianapolis 500, led laps and had a realistic shot at victory. That is foolish because it neglects a team that had a combined 22 out of a possible 34 finishes outside the top twenty. The team had four top fifteen finishes all season, three of which were on ovals. 

A.J. Foyt Racing, once again, has a lot of work to do. The good news is the team announced a technical alliance at the end of last season with Team Penske. Penske will supply dampers and engineering support while also assigning crew members to the Foyt team. It isn't quite a full-scale satellite team, but a Penske-lite effort sounds much more competitive than anything A.J. Foyt Racing has put on track the last decade. 

We aren't sure what the Foyt driver lineup will look like in 2024. The team announced Sting Ray Robb will drive its #41 entry. Benjamin Pedersen responded saying he was still under contract with Foyt and would be driving for the team. The team has not confirmed Ferrucci will be returning for any races in 2024. 

Robb is not a massive improvement over Pedersen. Ferrucci already had one top ten finish. With a little more support, he could get a second on his own. A Robb-Pedersen combination does not inspire much hope of two top ten finishes. Ferrucci being in the team at all increases hope significantly. There could be a third option with an unknown driver at this time. 

With Penske support, it feels like a halfway decent driver can pick up two top ten finishes. If Foyt can find that driver, 2024 should be better than 2023, nothing revolutionary, but better and better is a start.  

10. The second-place starting position will produce multiple winners

Basic numbers game. 

In 2022, the second-place starter won seven times, including a stretch where the second-place starter won four consecutive races. 

In 2023, the second-place starter won zero times. The outside of the front row, middle of the front row at Indianapolis, enters 2024 on a 20-race winless streak. 

Prior to 2023, second starting position had not gone winless in a season since 2015. That was a part of a 52-race drought that went from the middle of 2013 through the middle of 2016. 

I don't think we are going to be pushing 52 races again. At least two races will season the second-place starter take victory. 

11. At least one team ends an oval winless streak that is at least four years long

In the last four seasons, five different teams have won an oval race in IndyCar. That is five different teams in the last 20 oval races. That means five IndyCar teams have not won an oval race in the last four years. 

Andretti Autosport hasn't won an oval race since Pocono 2018. Ed Carpenter Racing has not won an oval race since Iowa 2016. Dale Coyne Racing's only oval victory was at Texas in 2012. A.J. Foyt Racing hasn't won on an oval since Kansas 2002. Juncos Hollinger Racing is still looking for its first victory in IndyCar regardless of track discipline. 

One of these streaks end in 2024, and notice how I worded this. If Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing does not win any of the first four oval races in 2024, it will enter the Milwaukee doubleheader over August 31 and September 1 having not won on an oval since August 23, 2020 at the Indianapolis 500. That means even RLLR could fulfill this prediction!  

12. Ed Carpenter Racing will fail to put a driver in the top fifteen of the championship

I hate to end on a downer, but let's be honest, Ed Carpenter Racing is bound to get bounced down the grid. 

ECR had four top ten finishes all season. The 2023 season was the first time the team has ever failed to score a podium finish or a top five finish in a single season. Even at Indianapolis, the one race the team puts more emphasis on the any other, it wasn't that close to challenging for victory. Yes, Rinus VeeKay started second and led 24 laps before careening into Álex Palou on pit lane, resulting in a penalty for the Dutchman that kept him from doing any better than finishing tenth, but Conor Daly qualified 16th and ended up eighth, and Ed Carpenter wasn't really close at all and ended up 20th after being in a late accident. 

Since 2015, ECR has had at least one driver finish in the top fifteen of the championship in every season. With Ganassi up to five cars, of which four drivers have a realistic shot of being in the top ten of the championship, three Penske cars, three Andretti cars, a rejuvenated three-car RLLR lineup, three McLarens and JHR with a driver that constantly finishes 13th in the championship, where will ECR end up?

That is 17 strong cars. VeeKay has finished 14th, 12th, 12th and 14th in his first four IndyCar seasons, but it doesn't feel like ECR is at the same place as it was back in 2021 when he won his first career race and had six top ten finishes in the first eight races of that season. 

We could also be looking at a bolstered A.J. Foyt Racing, Dale Coyne Racing isn't a stranger to the top fifteen in the championship and if Meyer Shank Racing is all-in on IndyCar with no sports car program, it easily could put Felix Rosenqvist in the top fifteen of the championship. 

The order of IndyCar teams is going to move again at the bottom half of the table. It feels like ECR is destined to take a dive. 

That's it for predictions! That's it for 2023! You have NASCAR, Formula One, sports cars and motorcycle predictions to chew on. The New Year will be here in a few days and we will be turn our attention to the new seasons that are closer than they appear. Until then, Happy New Year and enjoy these final days of the holiday period. 

2024 Motorcycle Predictions

The motorcycle world always has something exciting it brings to the table, whether it be on pavement or on dirt, on famed circuits or in highly modern stadiums. More exciting things are to come in multiple championships across multiple disciplines. Champions are changing teams, some are changing while being title-holders. Thrilling rookies are going to step up to the highest levels and will be poised to make their first steps toward greatness. There is plenty to watch in 2024. 

MotoGP

1. On at least three occasions with a rider win consecutive grand prix

One of the most notable occurrences from the 2023 MotoGP season was the lack of a consecutive race winner. It was the first time no rider won consecutive races in the top class since the inaugural season of the world championship in 1949, which only had six races. 

If it was the first time something has happened in 74 years, it likely will not happen a second consecutive year, but once is not going to be good enough to fulfill this prediction. We aren't going to have just one instance of a rider winning consecutive races. We are going to have at least three occasions when it happens. There are enough talented riders for it to happen. We could have it happen ten times in 2024 and no on would be surprised. 

2. Marc Márquez is no worse than the third best Ducati rider in the championship

I know last year I said Márquez would finish in the top five of the championship, and we all know how that played out. But this year has to be different, right? Right?

Gone from Honda, onto Ducati, even if it is a year-old bike which just so happens to have just won the world championship, Márquez starts a pivotal second act in his career. The machine is no longer the question mark. It is down to Márquez. Does he still have it and can he keep himself from going over the edge? If he is seeing the checkered flag you must believe he will get results, but it will not be easy. 

Francesco Bagnaia is not going anywhere. Jorge Martín put up a championship push and found success in the sprint races. Marco Bezzecchi looked ready for a title fight for the first half of the season. Fabio Di Giannantonio was coming on strong at the end of 2023. Ducati will have Enea Bastiannini looking for a mulligan after injuries last season, and Franco Morbidelli, another rider looking to revive his career. 

Márquez could have a great season and still not be the best Ducati rider. In that case, he could still be in the top three or five of the championship. Moving to Ducati will to see a repeat of 2013 or 2019, but it should make Márquez a factor again.

3. There will be zero races where a points-scoring position in unclassified

It felt like the 2023 season saw many days of high attrition. Some (Fabio Quartararo) believed that was down to the sprint races and the increase in competition. Those beliefs might be true.

Last season, there were six grand prix where riders were unclassified in points-paying positions at the end of grand prix and earned no reward for their Sunday efforts. That was over a quarter of the races in 2023. The fewest classified runners was 13. 

However, we will see a complete reverse in 2024. Twenty-two grand prix, 330 points-paying positions accounted for. Mark it here.

4. Pedro Acosta will be the best finishing rookie in the championship since 2019

Acosta won the Moto3 championship as a rookie at 18 years old and he won the Moto2 championship in his second season in the competition at 20 years old. He turns 21 during the 2024 season, which will be his rookie MotoGP campaign riding for KTM for GasGas Tech3. 

KTM had a good season in 2023. Brad Binder had great consistency while Jack Miller had flashes and accidents that canceled out his better performances. GasGas Tech3 was the worst team in the championship though Augusto Fernández did have a fourth at the French Grand Prix. 

Tech3 hasn't finished better than 11th in the teams' championship the last three years, but it is bound to get off the mat, and Acosta will help. Not only do I think Acosta will help, but I think he will have some rather remarkable results. He isn't going to win the championship, even a grand prix victory feels like a stretch, but scoring points is something he should do.

In the previous four seasons, the best rookie finisher in those seasons have been 11th, ninth, 14th and 17th. For this prediction to be correct, Acosta would have to finish eighth. It is asking a lot, but don't be surprised if it happens. 

5. The Japanese Manufactures will surpass their combined 2023 podium finish total in the first half of the season

This has been a low point for Honda and Yamaha in MotoGP. Honda lost arguably its greatest rider. Yamaha's current best rider is looking for a way out. The two manufacturers' combined for one victory in 2023. Yamaha was fourth and Honda was fifth in the manufacturers' championship. The best of their six full-time riders ended up tenth in the riders' championship. 

It was dismal.

It must get better. 

MotoGP cannot really afford for it to be much worse. 

How does an optimist look at it?

In 2023, Honda and Yamaha combined for five podium finishes. Five podium finishes is nothing! In 2024, these two makes will have at least six podium finishes in the first 11 races. It will be a heartwarming story of the season.

6. A Moto2 race is decided by less than a tenth of a second

While it feels like MotoGP and Moto3 (definitely Moto3), frequently have grandstand finishes and we need the cameras to determine the winners, Moto2 does not have as many of those finishes. Sometimes, Moto2 is a good reset between a Moto3 and a MotoGP event. It lowers the bar for MotoGP so the main event isn't following two hair-raisers. However, it does make Moto2 the literal middle child. 

Last season, only four Moto2 races were decided by less than a second. Moto2 has not had a finish decided by less than a tenth of a second since the 2022 British Grand Prix, 29 races ago. That will change in 2024. At least one race goes to the wire that keeps everyone holding their breath through the checkered flag.

7. Leopard Racing wins at least four Moto3 races

Leopard Racing has been one of the best teams in Moto3. It has won four of the last nine Moto3 championships and it has put a rider in the top five of the championship in eight of the last nine seasons. It is also known for winning races. 

In six of the last nine seasons, Leopard Racing has won at least four races in a season. You might be thinking that this prediction is a slam dunk then. However, Leopard has an entirely new lineup. Jaume Masiá is moving to Moto2 after winning the 2023 Moto3 title. Tatsuki Suzuki suffered an injury and left the team midseason in 2023. 

Entering the team will be Adrián Fernández, who did run six races in replacement for Suzuki, and Ángel Piqueras, who won the FIM JuniorGP World Championship and the Red Bull MotoGP Rookies Cup championship in 2023. 

It is an unproven team, but there should be some encouragement and Leopard Racing finds it way on top.

8. At least one MotoE race has an all-Spanish podium

Last year in MotoE, there were three races that had all-Italian podiums. 

The first Mugello race (Andrea Mantovani, Matteo Ferrari and Mattia Casadei).

The second Austria race (Casadei, Ferrari and Kevin Zannoni).

The second Barcelona race (Casadei, Mantovani and Nicholas Spinelli).

Italy was the only country to have a podium sweep in 2023.

What happens in 2024? 

Spain will have a podium sweep of its own. 

At time of writing, 12 of 14 announced riders for the 2024 MotoE season are either Italian or Spanish, eight to four respectively.

Spain has never swept a MotoE podium. That will change in 2024.

World Superbike

9. Of the three podium positions, Jonathan Rea finishes third the least.

Rea is changing outfits for 2024. Off is the Kawasaki green, on is the Yamaha blue as Rea will be riding something other than a Kawasaki for the first time since he competed with Honda in the 2014 season.

Rea and Kawasaki lost their stranglehold on World Superbike in the last few seasons, but they still remained a clear number three in the championship. He only won one race, but he was on the podium in 18 of 36 races this past season. 

Yamaha won seven times in 2023, all with Toprak Razgatlioglu, who will leave Yamaha for BMW in 2024. Razgatlioglu had 20 runner-up finishes last year. Rea had five runner-up finishes. That means of Rea's 18 podium finishes, 12 were third-place finishes. 

Álvaro Bautista will still be on a Ducati. Good luck to everyone. With Razgatlioglu moving away from Yamaha and Rea joining the team, it will not be as simple as Rea simply replicating Razgatlioglu's results, but Rea should have more races challenging Bautista or at least being the clear second-place rider. 

A dozen times finishing in any one position is quite something. Rea will have his share of third-place finishes, but I don't think they will be greater than his number of victories or second-place finishes.

10. At least two riders who didn't win consecutive races in 2023 win consecutive races in 2024

Here is the list of riders to win consecutive races in the 2023 World Superbike season:

Álvaro Bautista

Toprak Razgatlioglu

That's it. That is the list. 

Bautista had four instances of winning consecutive races: The first four races of the season, ten races from the second Indonesia race through the first race at Donington Park, race two from Donington Park and the first Imola race, and Bautista won the final eight races to close out the season. 

Razgatlioglu won the SuperPole race and race two from Imola, and he won race one and the SuperPole race from Many-Cours. 

The obvious difference will be Jonathan Rea winning consecutive races at least once now that he is on a Yamaha. Where does the other rider come from?

Bautista cannot keep hogging all the victories for Ducati, and perhaps the 2023 World Supersport champion Nicolò Bulega can have a sensational weekend. Michael Ruben Rinaldi, the only other winner from 2023, is still on a Ducati. 

Andrea Locatelli will be Rea's teammate at Yamaha. While Razgatlioglu's exit should open up chances for Rea, it will also create opportunities for Locatelli, who continues to search for his first career World Superbike victory.

If BMW hits on something, maybe Michael van der Mark also benefits and gets some victories for himself. It could be a surprise, like Andrea Iannone, who returns to competition after serving a four-year ban for doping on a customer Ducati. 

Let's see how it plays out.

Supercross/Motocross

11. Jett Lawrence will have at least one stretch where he doesn't win five consecutive rounds

Lawrence's 2023 season will be remembered for a 250cc West Supercross championship, a perfect 450cc Motocross championship and winning the inaugural 450cc SuperMotocross championship. This has all the makings of the start of a promising career. 

However, even the greatest careers see some rough patches, and for how easy Lawrence made it look in 2023, he is going to face stout competition and have some tussles on his hands this season. 

There should be a healthy Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton has moved to KTM, Cooper Webb is back on a Yamaha, Ken Roczen is still around, Jason Anderson is still around, Justin Barcia is good for a victory a season, Malcolm Stewart is still looking for his first Supercross victory, oh, and Jett's brother Hunter Lawrence will be his teammate at Honda. 

Jett Lawrence has not had a losing streak of five consecutive rounds since a six-race stretch during the 2021 250cc Motocross season. This prediction is counting all rounds across the Supercross, Motocross and SuperMotocross seasons, but if Lawrence is missing any extended period of time due to injuries I will not count those.

There is a good chance Lawrence is still going to have great seasons and win multiple championships, but competition is going to be high.

12. Riders outside the top three in the Supercross championship combine to win at least four rounds

Speaking to the depth of Supercross, there are at least a dozen riders you can envision winning around this season. They aren't all going to win races, but it feels like at least six riders are going to win a race. When looking over recent Supercross seasons, the top three riders in the championship typically have the lion's share of the race victories.

That shouldn't be a surprise. If I went back through every Supercross season that would likely be the case, but something caught my eye. 

The last time riders that finished outside the top three in the championship combined for at least four victories was 2015. Ken Roczen won two of the first three races and then was knocked out after nine races due to an ankle injury. Trey Canard won twice and then was knocked out after suffering a broken arm in the 12th round in Detroit. Chad Reed also won that year at Atlanta and finished fourth in the championship after being disqualified from the second Anaheim event and withdrawing from the Meadowlands round prior to the heat races. 

Unfortunately, injury is one of the ways this prediction becomes true, but let's be optimistic and we see one of the most competitive Supercross seasons to date where seven riders win a race, three of which are surprises after running just outside the top five for much of the season and then fourth wins twice but somebody has to finish fourth and he just isn't good enough to crack the top three. That would be five victories right there. 

It feels practical for 2024.

And then there was one set of predictions remaining. NASCAR, Formula One, sport cars and now motorcycles are complete. We end the year as we always do with IndyCar. 

2024 Sports Car Predictions

We continue our end-of-year predictions and move into the sports car realm. The thrilling period for sports car competition writes a new chapter in 2024. More manufacturers are coming. New races are coming. There will be new regulations in a few championships, new class structures. For all that was new in 2023, there was much that was the same as it ever was. However, with another year, things are bound to be shaken up eventually. There is a good chance it will be 2024.

FIA World Endurance Championships

1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes

The 2023 season might have seen the inclusion of the LMDh cars and the expansion of the Hypercar class, but it was rather one-sided.

Toyota took 11 of a possible 21 podium finishes. As a two-car team, it went 11 for 14. Ferrari took six podium finishes, Porsche had two, Cadillac and Peugeot each had one. 

Cadillac had a good start to the season before have a tough close. Porsche didn't quite show great speed, however it could have picked up another podium result last year with a few things going its way. 

With another year of development and who knows how the Balance of Performance will go, but we should see some more variety on the podium this season. Also, Porsche will have power in numbers. There will be five Porsches on the grid. BMW is joining the championship with a two-car effort, as is Alpine, and Lamborghini will have a car entered. 

Of course, all of these manufacturers could take podium finishes off each other and we could end up with four with two podium finishes apiece. 

2. At least four drivers get their first overall WEC victory

A bigger Hypercar class means many drivers who have not competed at the top level before and have not won overall before. 

One of the Ferraris didn't win last year, and, if that lineup does not change for 2024, none of Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina nor Nicklas Nielsen have won overall before. That could be three drivers right there. There will also be the third Ferrari that Robert Kubica will lead with Ye Yifei as a likely driver in that entry. Neither of those two have won overall before. 

We are missing the changes at Toyota with Nyck de Vries becoming a new driver in the #7 Toyota. De Vries does not have an overall victory. One victory for the #7 Toyota and the #50 Ferrari will fulfill this prediction. 

With all the Porsches in Hypercar, there are a slew of drivers that have never won overall in WEC. One Porsche victory can likely take care of 75% of this prediction. Maybe I should make it higher? You know what? That is what I will do...

At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory

Take that!

3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more

To be clear, this isn't manufacturer nor race team, this is specific cars, and with 18 cars from nine manufacturers, single-car dominance is tougher to imagine. 

In 2023, only one entry in GTE-AM had four podium finishes or more. That was the championship-winning #33 Corvette, which had five podium finishes. That was a class with 14 full-time cars with four manufacturers. 

There are plenty of capable entries in this class. Corvette remains in the class with TF Sport. Proton Competition is running two Ford Mustangs. AF Corse is still around with Ferrari. Team WRT is fielding a a pair of BMWs. Manthey Racing has two Porsches in its stable. Iron Lynx/Dames brings Lamborghini to the series, as does United Autosports with McLarens, Akkodis ASP Team is responsible for the Lexus entries and Aston Martin is split between Heart of Racing and D'station Racing.

They are all going to see some success at some point during the 2024 season. If one stands above the rest, it will clearly deserve the championship.

4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company

With the new rules in WEC and GT3 entries getting priority based on Hypercar participation, six companies have entries in both classes. It is likely we will see one celebrating a double victory in WEC this season. 

We know Toyota can win. Lexus is the question mark, but Akkodis ASP Team has been highly successful in the GT World Challenge Europe series and Lexus smashed the competition in IMSA. Ferrari is Ferrari. No one would be surprised there. The same can be said with Porsche. 

On the flip side of Toyota, we know Corvette can win, but Cadillac is the question mark in Hypercar. 

BMW and Lamborghini are the other two who could do this. 

It will definitely happen once, but I will double down and say it will happen twice. 

IMSA

5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship

I am sure I have written about the before, but do you know García's championship positions since he joined Corvette Racing as a full-time driver in 2012?

Third

First

Third

Third

Third

First

First

Third

First

First

Third 

Third

García has not finished something other than first or third in a championship as a full-time driver since 2011 when he was seventh in the Daytona Prototype class in Grand-Am.

It has been a 12-year streak. Nothing lasts forever. It probably shouldn't have made it to 2024. García and Jordan Taylor entered the 2023 season finale at Petit Le Mans second in the GTD Pro championship only to have the duos worst finish of the season while WeatherTech Racing won to jump up to second. 

Corvette is going to be competitive, but that doesn't mean García will be first or third again. He will have Alexander Sims as his new co-driver after Jordan Taylor left for Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti’s Acura GTP program. 

6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA

This is a cross-series prediction because there will be substantial crossover between WEC and IMSA in 2024, as there always is, but for 2024 it feels like there will be even greater crossover. 

Who will be running both?

There will be over two dozen drivers set to run in WEC this year, who will be running at the 24 Hours of Daytona. This includes a number of drivers who will be running multiple times in both series, a few of which will attempt to run the full season in each. 

Between drivers running in both Hypercar and as endurance drivers in IMSA or drivers planning to run in GT categories in both series, there is bound to be a few drivers that see success in each championship. With the sheer number of drivers crossing over, three feels likely. 

How many drivers won in both series last year? 

Ben Keating

Nicolás Varrone

That's it. That's the list, and they just so happened to be co-drivers in WEC. Keating won in LMP2 in IMSA and Varrone was a member of the 2023 LMP3 winning entry at the 24 Hours of Daytona.

7. The Riley Motorsports LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5

The LMP3-era of IMSA's top class should be remembered as the Riley era. Riley Motorsports won 12 of 21 races in the LMP3 class and stood on the podium 16 times in the class' three-year run. In 2023, Riley Motorsports had an average finish of 2.57, which was inflated with a ninth in the 24 Hours of Daytona, which technically didn't count toward the LMP3 championship. Count only the championship races and Riley's average was 1.5. 

Not bad, but not as good as its 1.57 average over the entire 2021 season and 1.667 over the six championship races. 

With LMP3 gone, Riley has moved to LMP2 and will field an Oreca for Gar Robinson and Felipe Fraga. It has been a good combination in LMP3 competition, but with a larger and deeper class in LMP2, I don't think Riley will repeat its dominance. It should still be competitive but not averaging better than a second-place finish. Averaging a podium finish will be a mighty task as well.

8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory

Last year, in the GTP class, the pole-sitter won three times (Daytona, Sebring and Mosport).

In LMP2, the pole-sitter won zero times.

In LMP3, the pole-sitter won twice (Watkins Glen and Mosport).

In GTD Pro, the pole-sitter won four times (Daytona, Long Beach, Lime Rock Park and Road America).

In GTD, the pole-sitter won twice (Road America and Virginia International Raceway). 

Last season, there were multiple class winners from pole position in three races, but never more than two class winners from pole position in a race. 

In case you are wondering when was the last time three classes had a pole-sitter win in the same race, it has not happened since the American Le Mans Series and Grand-Am merged in 2014.

European Le Mans Series

9. The #22 United Autosports entry does no extends its winning streak

United Autosports has been a regular winner in the European Le Mans Series, but more specifically, its #22 entry has been a regular winner. How regular? The #22 United Autosport entry has won a race overall in ELMS for six consecutive seasons. United Autosports has won a race in seven consecutive seasons. 

No other entry has a multi-year winning streak entering the 2024 season over than the #22 United Autosports entry.

However, United Autosports will have three entries in ELMS this year. The LMP2 class in ELMS will have 22 entries this season. Nothing lasts forever, and there is greater strength in this class than previous season. Ben Hanley will lead the #22 United entry alongside Marino Sato, who returns to ELMS for a second consecutive season. Filip Ugran moves over from Prema Racing. It could surely win a race, but it could conceivably not happen.

10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers

For the last three consecutive seasons, there has been at least one winner in the GTE class that had multiple Italian drivers.

Last year, the all-Italian trio of Matteo Cressoni, Matteo Cairoli and Claudio Schiavoni won at Spa-Francorchamps with Iron Lynx. Iron Lynx also had an all-Italian winning lineup in 2022 with Cressoni, Schiavoni and Davide Rigon. Gianmaria Bruni and Lorenzo Ferrari also won that year at Barcelona with Proton Competition and Christian Ried. Half of the GTE races in 2021 had multiple Italian drivers in the winning team. 

There will be a few close calls, but it will not happen in 2024.

Other

11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours

GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup will have a five-race season in 2024. The second round will be the Spa 24 Hours. 

Spa-Francorchamps traditionally awards more points than any other GTWCEEC race, as points are awarded to the top nine at the quarter-mark and halfway point of the race. If you do well in the Spa 24 Hours, it will bode well for your championship. 

How well?

The GTWCEEC champion has been a top five finisher in the Spa 24 Hours in four consecutive seasons, the last three of which has seen the eventual champions finish on the Spa podium. 

The last time the champion was not in the top five at Spa-Francorchamps was 2019 when the #563 Orange1 FFF Racing Team Lamborghini ended up eighth. Orange1 FFF Racing Team won the Barcelona finale and had podium results in two other races. 

No trend lasts forever and we are due for a break.

12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races

With the proliferation of GT3 cars across many different championship, we are seeing a greater number of manufacturer participation in some series that otherwise had few brands competing. DTM was one of those series and after long being just Audi and Mercedes-Benz, and then just Audi and BMW, with a brief moment of Aston Martin entered, it has flourished with GT3 regulations. 

Six manufacturers competed in DTM this year. All six won a race at some point, but there were three occasions where five manufacturers won in five consecutive races.

The season started with five different winning brands in five races: Lamborghini, Porsche, Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW.

From race three to race seven, there were five different winning manufacturers in five races: Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW, Porsche, Lamborghini. 

It then happened again from race 11 to race 15: Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Porsche. 

With GT3 expanding to WEC and ELMS, it will change the composition of some of the existing GT3 series, DTM included. Honda will be in the series, but I don't think we will see the same makeup of winners, at least not as we saw it in DTM in 2023.

We are beyond the halfway point in predictions. NASCAR and Formula One are done. Two more to go, and next are predictions of the two-wheel variety.