It is the final fortnight of the year and we should start looking at how the pieces are laying out for the 2021 IndyCar season. It has been two months since the 2020 season wrapped up, a month later than IndyCar's typical conclusion. We know how many of the 2021 seats will lineup, but there are still many questions at some teams.
How are some teams shaping up? Where could some drivers be heading? How does the Indianapolis 500 look nearly six months ahead of schedule? We will cover all those questions.
A.J. Foyt Racing
We know Sébastien Bourdais will be in the #14 Chevrolet, and we found out Dalton Kellett will run full-time in the #4 Chevrolet. Kellett was one of three drivers to drive the 14 Chevrolet in 2020, making eight starts.
Charlie Kimball appears to be on the way out after a season with the team. Romain Grosjean was a rumored possibility to join his fellow Frenchman Bourdais at the team, however, after Grosjean's accident in Bahrain, which left him with burns to his hands, Grosjean is taking time considering what he does next in his career.
Prior to Grosjean's accident, there was speculation Foyt could run three cars with Bourdais, Grosjean and Kellett. A third car has not been completely dismissed, but it appears to be unlikely.
Last year, Foyt ran three cars at the Indianapolis 500 and the team has been a regular in running extra cars. Though Tony Kanaan will be driving elsewhere in 2021, a third car at Foyt remains a strong possibility.
Grid Counter: 2 (2 Chevrolets, 0 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least two, likely 3 (2-3 Chevrolets, 0 Hondas)
Andretti Autosport
The team is rearranging the deck chairs a bit.
While Alexander Rossi will stay in the #27 Honda, Colton Herta will move in the #26 Gainbridge Honda, a move strictly done to appease a sponsor. Gainbridge spent three years in IndyCar and had two top five finishes with no victories. Herta has won three races and he has championship finishes of seventh and third in his first two full seasons.
Gainbridge has spent a lot of money in IndyCar and Herta will be its hope for victory lane photo ops.
With Herta moving over, it opens up the #88 Honda, run in partnership with Harding Steinbrenner Racing. James Hinchcliffe ran the final three races of the 2020 season in the #26 Honda and Hinchcliffe was the favorite to fill that seat in 2021. The belief is Hinchcliffe is still at the head of the line to re-join Andretti Autosport full-time and he will slide into the #88 Honda.
Ryan Hunter-Reay has not been announced in the #28 Honda, but it is believed he will return. The same is true with Marco Andretti and the #98 Honda.
Andretti Autosport has not announced if it will run a sixth car at Indianapolis, though history tells us it will.
Grid Counter: 7 (2 Chevrolets, 5 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least eight, Likely nine (2-3 Chevrolets, 6 Hondas)
Arrow McLaren SP
Patricio O'Ward will return in the #5 Arrow Chevrolet with Felix Rosenqvist joining the team and running in the #7 Arrow Chevrolet.
We also know Juan Pablo Montoya will return to the Indianapolis 500 for the first time since 2017 in a third AMSP car. AMSP was also flirting with running a third car at multiple races with the notable tease being Jenson Button running the car. There has been no word if the team hopes to contest a third car in additional races outside Indianapolis in 2021.
Grid Counter: 9 (4 Chevrolets, 5 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 11, likely 12 (5-6 Chevrolets, 6 Hondas)
Carlin
One of the quietest teams this offseason has been Carlin.
No official plans have been announced, but we expect the #59 Chevrolet to return with Max Chilton competing at some point. Chilton ran all road and street courses and the Indianapolis 500 last year. There has been no inkling whether or not he will run that same schedule, return to full-time competition or decrease his schedule.
Last year, Conor Daly ran the #59 Chevrolet at all the ovals, except the Indianapolis 500. Daly's future has yet to be announced.
It is believed Carlin would like to return to two full-time cars. Sponsorship issues kept the second Carlin from taking to the grid. Felipe Nasr was entered for the St. Petersburg season opener prior to the pandemic postponing the street race until October. Charlie Kimball could return to the team after his exit from Foyt.
Grid Counter: 10 (5 Chevrolets, 5 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 12, possibly 13 (6-7 Chevrolets, 6 Hondas)
Chip Ganassi Racing
Scott Dixon and Marcus Ericsson will be back, Álex Palou will move into the #10 Honda in place of Felix Rosenqvist, and Jimmie Johnson and Tony Kanaan will split the #48 Honda with Johnson running the road and street courses and Kanaan contesting the ovals.
It is unlikely Ganassi will run an Indianapolis 500 one-off.
Grid Counter: 14 (5 Chevrolets, 9 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 16, possibly 17 (6-7 Chevrolets, 10 Hondas)
Dale Coyne Racing
Welcome the world of Dale Coyne Racing uncertainty.
Santino Ferrucci was once a lock for the #18 Honda, but it appears Ferrucci will leave full-time IndyCar competition to run a majority of NASCAR's second division season. That has not be confirmed, but that appears to be the direction he is heading. There is still a chance Ferrucci will remain in the #18 Honda for another season, however, we are preparing for the #18 Honda to be an open set.
With Palou moving out of the team, that makes two open seats.
Coyne has become a regular early buyer in recent years, knowing who will be driving both cars for the next season before Christmas. However, we know the team's history of late decisions and midseason driver rotation, and with Ferrucci possibly leaving and a second seat open that will need funding, we are expecting a return to the old Coyne days.
There have been not strong links to the team. No one has tested for the team. We might not have a clue until the first preseason test and even then, the lineup could be subject to change up until the first practice of the season. Pietro Fittipaldi has been mentioned, as Fittipaldi looks to return to IndyCar. He has spent the last year as a Haas F1 reserve driver and even made two starts after Grosjean's injuries forced him out for the final two races. Fittipaldi did make six starts with Coyne back in 2018. Kimball is another possible option for the team.
I think two cars will be back. Coyne runs an additional Indianapolis 500 entry frequently. Once again, funding determines if that extra seat appears for Indianapolis.
Grid Counter: 16 (5 Chevrolets, 11 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 18, possibly 20 (6-7 Chevrolets, 12-13 Hondas)
Ed Carpenter Racing
Rinus VeeKay will return for his sophomore season fresh off his rookie of the year campaign. We believe Ed Carpenter will be back for the ovals in the #20 Chevrolet. It is a matter of who fills the #20 Chevrolet for the road courses.
Conor Daly was in the #20 Chevrolet for the road and street courses last year, but his United States Air Force sponsorship might not return for 2021. Even if it does, there is a belief Daly wants to be full-time. ECR could expand to three cars, with VeeKay and Daly full-time and Carpenter in for only ovals. Carpenter has said if Daly does not return, he is open to hiring a driver from the American development system and not hire someone coming from an international series.
ECR ran a third car in the Indianapolis 500 for Daly last year and it ran an extra car the year before that with Ed Jones in partnership with Scuderia Corsa. An additional Indianapolis 500 entry was once something the team did not participate in and if Daly is not back, it would not be a surprise if the team focused on only two cars.
Grid Counter: 18 (7 Chevrolets, 11 Hondas)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 20, possibly 23 (8-10 Chevrolets, 12-13 Hondas)
Meyer Shank Racing
Jack Harvey will be back full-time, and Hélio Castroneves will contest six races (Barber, Long Beach, Indianapolis 500, the August IMS road course race, Portland and Laguna Seca).
Grid Counter: 19 with a part-timer (7 Chevrolets, 12 Hondas + 1 part-time Honda)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 22, possibly 25 (8-10 Chevrolets, 14-15 Hondas)
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato will both be back with the team.
RLLR ran a car in partnership with Citrone/Buhl Autosport in two races in 2020. Spencer Pigot drove both races, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the Indianapolis 500. RLLR regularly enters an additional car for Indianapolis. If Citrone/Buhl Autosport do not return, I would still expect a third RLLR car in some way, shape or form.
Grid Counter: 21 with a part-timer (7 Chevrolets, 14 Hondas + 1 part-time Honda)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 25, possibly 28 (8-10 Chevrolets, 17-18 Hondas)
Team Penske
We will see the team expand to four full-time cars with Josef Newgarden, Will Power and Simon Pagenaud all returning and Scott McLaughlin running a rookie season after transitioning from Supercars.
With McLaughlin joining the team full-time, it is believed the team will not run an additional car at the Indianapolis 500.
Grid Counter: 25 with a part-timer (11 Chevrolets, 14 Hondas + 1 part-time Honda)
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 29, possibly 32 (12-14 Chevrolets, 17-18 Hondas)
Other Indianapolis 500 Entries
At worst, it appears the full-time teams and already announced one-offs will get us 29 Indianapolis 500 entries. At best, we are looking at 32 entries. We are either four cars away from a full grid or one car away and then we will be looking at bumping.
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has fielded two cars the previous two years at Indianapolis. However, the team and its regular driver Sage Karam might split after spending the last five years together. J.R. Hildebrand has run with the team the last two years. I expect the team to be back with at least one car. A second car could still be possible. I also expect some change in the driver lineup, whether that is Hildebrand being the only driver, Hildebrand having a new teammate or D&R running one or two different drivers.
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 30, possibly 34 (13-16 Chevrolets, 17-18 Hondas)
We know DragonSpeed will not be back. Juncos Racing did not contest the 2020 Indianapolis 500 after running the three previous years. Clauson-Marshall Racing was a popular entry in 2019 with Pippa Mann as its driver, but the team did not return in 2020. Top Gun Racing had planned on running the 2020 Indianapolis 500, but stepped away when it was announced the race would be held behind closed doors. RC Enerson was going to run that car and the equipment was going to come from DragonSpeed.
There has been no news of a new Indianapolis 500-only entry or a sports car team or a NASCAR team expanding and running a car at Indianapolis. From the paragraph above, the best hope would be Juncos Racing returns with one car and Top Gun Racing emerges with an entry.
Indianapolis 500 Counter: At least 32, possibly 36 (15-18, Chevrolets, 17-18 Hondas)
We are nearing the first days of winter and we have an idea what the full-time IndyCar grid and the Indianapolis 500 entry list will look like, but there are still a few unknowns. There is a lot of time until engines fire again, and after this year with the pandemic raining on everybody's parade, it would be foolish to believe anything is gospel for next season. Sponsorships could pull out at the last moment. Teams might have to make cuts. It could be a straining offseason.
The good news is everything is pointing in the right direction as of today. We are looking at more full-time cars than 2020. We will enter 2021 comfortable that at least 33 cars will be at 16th and Georgetown during the month of May with a strong possibility one or two cars could be bumped. None of that is guaranteed and it could shift. We could have just as many full-time cars as 2020 or one fewer and May might only be 33 cars again. Until the news starts turning for the worst, we can be a little joyful over how the 2021 IndyCar grid is shaping up.
