2020 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

The sports car season got started before the pandemic had really grabbed our attention. After a handful of endurance races were in the bag, we were ready for the 12 Hours of Sebring with the 1000-mile World Endurance Championship race at Sebring and that is when everything crashed to a halt. It took another four months before things restarted. Le Mans was postponed. Other races were moved. The WEC season was completely imploded, and the split-calendar format was dropped. We completed the year, but how did our predictions play out in a different season than first expected?

1. IMSA: At least four cars have multiple overall victories in DPi
Wrong!

Only three teams won multiple times in the DPi class.

The #7 Acura of Hélio Castroneves and Ricky Taylor won four races, including three-consecutive at Road America, Road Atlanta and Mid-Ohio. 

The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Cadillac of Renger van der Zande and Ryan Biscoe won twice, the 24 Hours of Daytona and Petit Le Mans. Scott Dixon was a part of both races and Kamui Kobayashi won the 24 Hours of Daytona for the second consecutive year. 

The #55 Mazda of Jonathan Bomarito and Harry Tincknell won the Paul Revere 250 at Daytona and the 12 Hours of Sebring with Ryan Hunter-Reay as the team's third driver.

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
A little bit, but it is not clear how the season would have played out if Long Beach, Belle Isle, Mosport and Watkins Glen were on the schedule. 

This prediction was dead prior to the 12 Hours of Sebring and the only way it could have been correct was if the #31 Action Express Racing Cadillac of Pipo Derani and Felipe Nasr had won at Laguna Seca and then the #55 Mazda won at Sebring. 

2. DragonSpeed easily wins the LMP2 championship
Wrong!

Though, this was a messy year for the LMP2 class. DragonSpeed's main focus was the European Le Mans Series and the team only raced in three IMSA rounds. It won the 24 Hours of Daytona, which didn't count toward the LMP2 championship, was first on the road at the Sebring sprint event but lost the victory after being only a handful of seconds short of the minimum drive time for Henrik Hedman. The team responded with a victory of Road America. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Yes! 

This prediction could be removed from the board due to how the season played out. DragonSpeed was going to be full-time and then had to scale back its efforts. The only team to run all the LMP2 races was the #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson. 

Without the pandemic, we probably would have had four or five full-time LMP2 entries, including DragonSpeed, which was first on the road in three of three races it contested. With that track record, you would have to think DragonSpeed could have come out on top.

3. Corvette picks up multiple victories
Correct!

Corvette won six races, including four-consecutive between the two July Florida races, Road America and Virginia International Raceway.

Antonio García and Jordan Taylor won five races and won the GTLM championship, clinching it a race early. It was García's fourth championship and third in the last four seasons. Taylor won the title in his first season as a full-time Corvette Racing driver, and this was Taylor's third championship in his IMSA career.

Oliver Gavin and Tommy Milner won the Sebring sprint event and finished third in the championship. This was Gavin's final season as a full-time Corvette driver after spending 19 seasons with the organization. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Not really. With how good the Corvette C8.R was, Corvette was always going to have at least two victories, and the manufacture probably still would have won the title.

4. There will be fewer consecutive winners in GTD than 2019
Correct!

The only time we had a team win consecutive races was in the two July races when the #14 Lexus won at Daytona and Sebring. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?

Possibly, but probably not because of how even the GTD class was. There were seven different winners in 11 races. The only team to win three races, the #14 Lexus, ended up third in the championship. The team that finished runner-up in the championship, the #16 Wright Motorsports Porsche, did not win until the finale. 

5. FIA World Endurance Championship: One more manufacture confirms a hypercar program
Correct... on a technicality. 

Alpine announced it will field the Alpine A480, a grandfathered Rebellion R13 in 2021, which will compete in the LMH class though it is an LMP1 car. However, ACO President Pierre Fillon announced that grandfathered LMP1 cars will be at the same level as the hypercars in the class. 

So, it is not a new hypercar, nor a hypercar, but it is another manufacture competing in the class even if it is only allowed to compete in one season. 

The truth is we actually have the same number of committed manufactures as we had at the start of 2020 because while Alpine entered, Aston Martin postponed its LMH Valkyrie program in February. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Probably. Who knows if another manufacture would have joined if it wasn't for the pandemic? I am not sure which manufacture that would have been, but anything is possible.

Plus, now we have the Le Mans Daytona h class that will debut in 2022, and we will see Audi field an entry in that class likely starting in 2023. In all likelihood, we will see Audi and perhaps another two or three manufactures running at Le Mans. Things might be looking up in 2021 or 2022 for the world of prototype racing.

6. There will be at least one LMP2 podium not to feature a French driver
Wrong!

There have now been 26 consecutive WEC races that had at least one French driver on the LMP2 podium. Damn. That is an incredible run and it will continue into 2021. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?

Yes, because there were only four WEC races in the 2020 calendar year when originally there were going to be the final four races of the 2019-20 season and there were going to be three races that were included in the 2020-21 season. 

However, I am not sure it would have mattered. There would have been more chances for a French-less podium, but I doubt it would have made a difference. It has been 26 consecutive races! 

7. The #92 Porsche finishes on the podium in less than half the GTE-Pro races in the 2020 calendar year
Wrong!

The #92 Porsche of Michael Christiansen and Kévin Estre were second at Austin, won at Spa-Francorchamps and won at Bahrain. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Like the one above, yes. There would have been three more races. Now, the #92 Porsche was on the podium in three of four races, meaning if there were three more races, it could not be on the podium one more time. Those are not good odds, but it could have shifted this prediction. 

8. At least three different entries win a race in GTE-Am
Wrong!

The only new winner in 2020 was the #56 Team Project 1 Porsche of Jörg Bergmeister, Egidio Perfetti and Larry ten Voorde won the season finale at Bahrain. 

The #90 TF Sport Aston Martin and the #83 AF Corse Ferrari split the other three races run in 2020. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?

Third time in as many predictions, yes. 

We had just slightly more than half the number of planned races for the 2020 calendar year. If there were three other races, we might have seen a few different entries for the 2020-21 season, but there would have been three more chances for two more winners.

Dempsey-Proton Racing did not win a race with either of its two entries. Aston Martin Racing did not win with its factory GTE-Am effort. There was also the #54 AF Corse, which did not score a victory.

9. European Le Mans Series: There will be at least four different LMP2 winners, breaking the pattern
Wrong!

There were only three winners in LMP2, the #32 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson, the #22 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson won three races, and the #26 G-Drive Racing Aurus 01-Gibson. 

I am not sure anyone saw the #22 United Autosports Oreca dominating the season as much as it did. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Slightly, because the original ELMS season was supposed to be six races and with one fewer race and only needing one more winner, this prediction could have been fulfilled. However, after seeing how great United Autosports did in 2020, it probably would have won that sixth ELMS race.

10. British entries will combine for the most LMP3 victories among team nationalities
Correct!

United Autosports won three of five races. The other winners were the Swiss Realteam Racing entry and the Polish Inter Europol Competition entry. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Probably not. See, United Autosports.

11. At least one GTE winner does not feature an Italian driver
Correct!

There were two races without an Italian winner. The #74 Kessel Racing Ferrari won at Spa-Francorchamps with Pole Michael Broniszewski, Brazilian Marcos Gomes and South African David Perel. The #55 Spirit of Race Ferrari won the second Circuit Paul Ricard race with Brits Duncan Cameron and Aaron Scott and Irishman Matt Griffin.

Ironically, the #74 Kessel Racing Ferrari won at Spa-Francorchamps and Italian Nicola Cadei was in that car for three of five races, but not that one. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Nope. 

12. A whole number of points is the difference between first and second in each championship
Correct!

The #22 United Autosports Oreca won the LMP2 championship over #32 United Autosports Oreca by 29 points. 

The #2 United Autosport Ligier won the LMP3 championship over the #13 Inter Europol Competition Ligier by 21 points. 

The #77 Dempsey-Proton Racing Porsche and the #74 Kessel Racing Ferrari were tied on 99 points! Both cars had two victories, two runner-up finishes and a fourth. Since all their results were equal, the tiebreaker went to who won a race first, and that was the #77 Porsche. 

Did the pandemic affect this prediction?

Maybe, because if Silverstone had occurred, maybe it would have been a rain-shortened affair. In that case, we would have been looking at a half-points race. It seems to happen every now and then. It didn't happen this year. We also didn't have a champion or runner-up finish outside the top ten and only get a half-point for classification. We caught some breaks on this front. 

Six out of 12 again, with one being on a technicality that you could easily argue as incorrect. That seems to be the theme of the year.