Monday, December 14, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Lewis' Last Dance

The Formula One season ended with a snoozer. Honestly, they spent over a billion dollars on the Yas Marina Circuit and half of it is rubbish. You would have thought all that money could have produced a better circuit. I am sure there is more oil money laying around for a renovation and a reconfiguration. Either that or Formula One should give the shorter layout a try. Kevin Magnussen made his final start in a Haas. Sergio Pérez made his final start in a Racing Point. Red Bull has yet to make up its mind. This is the final Musings From the Weekend of 2020, but we will have predictions to revisit, awards to hand out and then predictions to make. There is plenty still to come. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Lewis' Last Dance
There is one unknown that remains at the end of the 2020 Formula One season that we thought would be cleared up when the final checkered flag waved at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Lewis Hamilton does not have a contract ahead of the 2021 season. 

Eighteen months ago, we were preparing for a chaotic silly season because Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Sebastian Vettel, Daniel Ricciardo and Sergio Pérez were all going to be free agents and Fernando Alonso was still going to be hanging out there, a potential wild card in the game of musical chairs. On top of the driver movement, new technical regulations were set to debut in 2021 and those changes were accepted as what could dethrone Mercedes-AMG after a seven-year reign. 

Verstappen was the first to make his move, staying with Red Bull, while the other pieces shifted. Vettel's time with Ferrari ended and he moved to Aston Martin, rebranded from Racing Point. Ricciardo joined McLaren. Alonso returned to Renault. Pérez could be out of a job, though Red Bull is having its own game of musical chairs within a game of musical chairs and Pérez could be set for a promotion. Pretty much everyone is set, except Hamilton. 

The allure of Ferrari hung in the air at the start of silly season. After nearly a decade of German hospitality, resurrecting the Scuderia was on the table for Hamilton's final act. 

This year started, the pandemic hit, regulations were delayed and 2021 became a lame-duck season of sorts. With races cancelled for the first half of the year, teams had to make decisions without a fresh set of results guiding the choices made. Drivers changed teams preemptively, hoping to make the most of 2021 before the regulations changed in 2022. One seat after another were filled. Ferrari signed Carlos Sainz, Jr. Red Bull found itself with another intense internal battle with Pierre Gasly running competitive with AlphaTauri compared to Alexander Albon in the Red Bull and Gasly's surprise victory at Monza complicated the matter, but made it clear the team did not need to pursue Hamilton. Nor was it likely Red Bull would have attracted Hamilton with Verstappen as the other driver.

At the end of the 2020 season, the only open seats are the two Red Bull-related seats and the lead Mercedes. Hamilton's choice will be staying put or not competing at all. 

With Hamilton's decision yet to be announced and Mercedes also yet to make their plans, the speculation over Hamilton's retirement increases by the day. 

In all likelihood, Hamilton will return for 2021, but the thought of Hamilton leaving after the 2020 season and the way he would exit draw a similarity to another famous end of a dynasty that was immortalized earlier this year: The Chicago Bulls.

During the heart of the pandemic, ESPN released its five-part documentary series "The Last Dance," which was dedicated to the Chicago Bulls during the Michael Jordan-era from 1984 through the team's sixth championship at the end of the 1997-98 season. 

Jordan was a generational talent, a global icon leading a cultural shift and the rise of basketball in the 1990s. Along with Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Steve Kerr, Toni Kukoć and head coach Phil Jackson led the team to its six championships, but while being hands down the best team of the 1990s and arguably one of the best all-time, turmoil still led to the end of the dynasty. 

Front office conflicts between general manager Jerry Krause and Jackson and Krause and Pippen frayed the team. Krause was not going give Jackson an extension after the '97-98 season, not even if Chicago went 82-0. Pippen held off getting surgery until the season started and looked to renegotiate his contract after taking numerous of discounts over his career in Chicago. 

Pippen was not the only player with a strained relationship with Krause. Jordan and Krause were not on the friendliest terms and Krause deciding not to retain Jackson, no matter the result of that season, only increased animosity. 

It didn't have to end with six championships. Jordan and company wanted to come back for one more season and attempt to win a fourth-consecutive and seven title overall. Instead, Jordan retired for a second time. Jackson stepped away from coaching. Pippen was traded to Houston, Kerr to San Antonio and Rodman left in free agency to the Los Angeles.

After "The Last Dance," many wondered what could have happened if the Chicago Bulls stayed together for the 1998-99 season, which was an unusual season after the NBA season was delayed due to a lockout. Instead of being an 82-game season starting in October 1998, the season did not begin until February 5, 1999. It was a 50-game sprint and it led to a mixed-up postseason. 

Chicago went 62-20 in the '97-98 season, a .758 winning percentage. Repeating said winning percentage would have easily led the Eastern Conference the following year. San Antonio ended up winning the championship as the top seed in the Western Conference, but the Eastern Conference representative was the eight-seed New York Knicks, a team that finished 27-23 in the regular season. 

Chicago was starting to show its age, but with a 50-game season and an underwhelming Eastern Conference, many think Chicago would have at least made the finals. San Antonio would have provided a difficult challenge with Tim Duncan and David Robinson, but a seventh championship was a realistic outcome. 

There is not the same type of infighting between Hamilton and Mercedes as there was between the Chicago Bulls locker room and front office, but Hamilton leaving Formula One now would raise many questions about the numerous of possible accomplishments he would be leaving behind. 

With the regulations remaining unchanged for 2021, Mercedes-AMG would likely have the best car on the grid for an eighth consecutive season. Hamilton is currently tied with Michael Schumacher on seven World Drivers' Championships. Odds are Hamilton will get his eighth in 2021 if he remains with Mercedes. Hamilton has 95 grand prix victories. He will clear the century mark almost instantly in 2021 if he stays. 

Considering all that Hamilton has accomplished, he should become the first driver to exceed the century mark in grand prix victories, he should win his eighth championship and set the bar as high as humanly possible in every statistical category. What he and Mercedes have accomplished together have blown away the Schumacher/Ferrari days of the early 2000s. It has redefined dominance, something we didn't think was possible 15-20 years ago. 

Hamilton should be the clear benchmark every driver going forward shoots for, but to believe this is it, this is all Hamilton has to offer, would be criminally underrating his ability. It would be depriving a few pages from the history books. 

Schumacher obliterated the record book with plenty of daylight between him, Alain Prost and Juan Manuel Fangio. Hamilton likely will not finish his career with 131 victories, 40 clear of Schumacher the same margin Schumacher had to Prost when he walked away, but breaking the century mark, that bit of history, should belong to Hamilton. Whatever number of victories he finishes with is gravy once he hits triple-digits.

We have seen plenty of history from Hamilton, but the final touches on his masterpiece could require another year. Does Hamilton feel satisfied with what he has left on the canvas or does he see a few areas that require a little more attention?

Champions From the Weekend
Augusto Farfus and Nicky Catsburg clinched the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship with a victory in the Kyalami 9 Hours driving the #34 Walkenhorst Motorsport BMW with Sheldon van der Linde.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about the Kyalami 9 Hours, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, his second victory of the season and tenth of this career.

Coming Up this Weekend
Super Formula ends its season at Fuji.