Normally, we have done an et cetera set of predictions, one prediction for 12 different series. However, that was not as fulfilling. It didn't feel right to do only one prediction per series, plus, I am not fully invested in all these series. Who watches World Touring Car Cup? And Indy Lights didn't even happen in 2020.
I am a regular viewer of motorcycle racing, from MotoGP to World Superbike and there is a lot of depth to each road course motorcycle series. It was almost unfair to only do one prediction for MotoGP. I made a change and for 2021 predictions we will focused specifically on the top motorcycle series.
MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez will be in sole possession of third all-time in grand prix victories
This prediction is already on the ropes if Márquez is not fully healthy for the start of the 2021 season and it sounds like it could be touch and go whether or not he will be ready. An infection has slowed his recovery. From reports, it sounds like Márquez will need to miss at least five months after his last surgery, meaning he could miss the first three races.
Even if Márquez is not able to return until Jerez in May, and there is a full season of 19 or 20 races, he could have 16 or 17 races and he would need nine victories to move to third all-time on 91 victories ahead of Ángel Nieto.
Márquez doesn't need a winning percentage of 50% to be champion, but I am setting the bar high for his return. If it wasn't for his injury, he probably would have won the championship in 2020 and likely would have won six or seven of the 14 races.
Even if he misses the first three races, there are some favorable racetracks to Márquez in the other 16 or 17 events. He has four victories at Le Mans, three in the MotoGP class. He is unbeaten at the Sachsenring in his MotoGP career and he won ten consecutive German Grand Prix. He is the all-time leader in victories at Aragón and in the San Marino Grand Prix with six victories in each, five of which are in MotoGP at Aragón and he has three victories at Misano in MotoGP.
At Motegi, he has won three of the last four MotoGP races, at Phillip Island he has won three of the last five MotoGP races and he is two-for-two at Buriram.
Those are six venues I just listed and there are a few tracks he is due at. He hasn't won at either Mugello or Silverstone since 2014 and he has never won at the Red Bull Ring despite a few close calls.
MotoGP is better if the best rider in the world is healthy. Though we are coming off an unpredictable championship where there were five first-time winners and a champion with only one victory, but Márquez has set the standard for grand prix racing. He is something special and he will only turn 28 years old. We already lost one year of Márquez magic. It would be a damn shame if we missed another.
2. Fabio Quartararo will have at least two podium finishes that are not victories.
With Márquez out and two victories from the first two races, the 2020 season was setting up for Quartararo to run away with the championship. Instead, he won only one of the final 12 races while having six finishes of 13th or worse and only scoring four points from the final three races. He ended up eighth in the championship.
The problem is outside of Quartararo's three victories, he really wasn't close to podium finishes, other than a fourth at Misano.
Meanwhile, Quartararo's Petronas Yamaha SRT teammate Franco Morbidelli won three races as well and picked up another two podium finishes. Maverick Viñales was second in the first two races and won at Misano. Valentino Rossi had one podium finish, which came at Jerez.
The 2020 MotoGP season only took place at nine tracks, far from what a normal calendar would consist of and with what should be a more diverse 2021 calendar, Quartararo and Yamaha should find success at other tracks. He has been on the podium three times in five starts at Assen. He also showed success at Buriram and Motegi. For someone who has been one of the rising MotoGP riders, Quartararo does not have an abundance of great results at different tracks. Jerez, Barcelona and Assen are the only tracks he has multiple podium finishes at in his six-year grand prix racing career.
In 2019, he was a breakout star. Last year started well before plateauing and declining. He still won three races in 2020, tied for the most with his teammate. Now Quartararo will be on the factory bike. Yamaha would have won the constructors' championship if it was not deducted 50 points for technical infringements. Even if he does not win as many races in 2021, I think Quartararo will be on the podium more and that includes more runner-up and third-place finishes.
3. Suzuki falls at least one position in the constructors' championship and finishes at least 100 points off the champion
Joan Mir won the championship with one victory, seven podium finishes and points from 11 of 14 races while Álex Rins ended up third in the championship with a victory and four podium finishes and points from 11 of 14 races.
Despite the results of Suzuki's riders, the manufacture ended up third in the constructors' championship, 19 points off the top spot, and I think the manufacture is going to drop at least a spot and finish significantly off the champion.
Honda should have Márquez back for a significant chunk of the schedule and after finishing fifth on 144 points in 2020, Honda should make a large leap up. KTM was only two points off Suzuki with more victories and its best rider finishing fifth in the championship.
Suzuki built what was the most balanced bike, but with only two entries on the grid, when the manufacture was off, neither rider was competitive. In the first Jerez race, Suzuki picked up no points. At Le Mans, Mir only picked up five points for an 11th-place finish and Mir lost an engine at Portimão while Rins only picked up a point.
For all of Yamaha's faults, it still won seven of 14 races. Ducati had a better top finisher than Suzuki in eight of 14 races. Once again, Honda should have Márquez back. Combine all those things and we should see Suzuki drop to fourth in the constructors' championship.
4. There will be at least three first-time winners
We are bringing this prediction back because the MotoGP grid has been shaken up ahead of the 2021 season.
Ducati has two new factory riders. Jack Miller has a grand prix victory, but Franceseco Bagnaia does not. Johann Zarco is moving to a Pramac Racing Ducati and Zarco is still looking for his first MotoGP victory. Esponsorama Racing will have two new riders, Luca Marini and Enea Bastianini, join the operation and both those riders were 1-2 in the 2020 Moto2 championship.
Pol Espargaró moved to the factory Honda next to Márquez after having a few victories slip through his hands on a KTM last year. Takaaki Nakagami was the top Honda rider in 2020 and regularly scored points. On a few days, Nakagami showed the potential to win a race, but it didn't pan out. Álex Márquez was making strides toward the end of the 2020 season and came close to a few victories.
Then there is the Aprilia, which probably will not win a race, but Aleix Espargaró has been a regular points scorer.
There are seven good options to be first-time winners. Bagnaia and Pol Espargaró are the two favorites to be first-time winners. I would then put Zarco, Nakagami and Álex Márquez on that next tier. Marini and Bastianini could have conditions play into their favor and see a surprise victory.
Moto2/Moto3
5. The American drivers combine for at least 150 points
Joe Roberts was a big surprise in the 2020 Moto2 season, where Roberts was seventh in the championship and won three pole positions. Unfortunately, he had only one podium finish, a third at Brno. He opened the season with a fourth in Qatar, a race where he very well should have been on the podium. He qualified on pole position at Le Mans but swapped tires on the grid and had to start from the pit lane. Le Mans turned into his best race, where Roberts went from last to sixth.
Roberts finished on 94 points, but now he will move to Italtrans Racing Team replacing champion Enea Bastianini. With at least four or five more races than the 2020 season, he should get a chance to get 56 points on his own, but Roberts will not be the only American on the grid, as five-time MotoAmerica champion Cameron Beaubier will move to American Racing, replacing Roberts.
This Beaubier's second stint in grand prix racing, as he was in the 125cc class in 2009 where his teammate was Marc Márquez. Beaubier has run at 13 of the 19 tracks currently on the schedule, but that doesn't mean he will step in and score 94 points like Roberts did in 2020. Beaubier's teammate Marcos Ramirez did score 37 points in 2020 and Ramirez will stay at American Racing for another season.
Let's just say Roberts carries over his 6.2667 points per race to 2021 and Beaubier scores 37 points like Ramirez did, if there are only 19 races, the two riders should combine for 156 points. If there are 20 races, then the two should combine for 162 points. I think that is achievable.
6. The Moto3 championship will have at least 100 career starts
Moto3 champions normally take the title in their second or third season in recent years. However, the top five riders from 2020 have all moved to Moto3 for 2021 and with the influx of younger riders, it should open the door for a seasoned veteran to have the advantage.
Moto3 has not had a champion with more than 100 career starts since Sandro Cortese in 2012.
Jamue Masiá is the top returning rider from 2020 and he will only have at most 73 starts to his name when the 2021 season is over. John McPhee and Darryn Binder were seventh and eighth in the championship in 2020. McPhee is already on 151 starts while Binder will start 2021 with 99 starts. Another possible option for this prediction is Tatsuki Suzuki who has 103 starts, started 2020 with three consecutive pole positions, but had only one victory and missed two races due to injury.
Gabriel Rodrigo also has over 100 starts and will be back in 2021, but he has yet to win a grand prix, and then there is infamous Romano Fenati, who has 140 grand prix starts but will be on a Husqvarna.
Along with Masiá, there are plenty of less experienced riders who could take the championship. Sergio García and Dennis Foggia are two other contenders. García will be on the new GasGas entry, which could take him out of the running. There is also Jeremy Alcoba, the top rookie from 2020.
I think this season is setting up for a veteran to come out on top.
World Superbike
7. At least four riders pick up at least three victories.
World Superbike has not had four riders pick up at least three victories in a season since 2014 when Sylvain Guintoli, Tom Sykes, Jonathan Rea and Marco Melandri each had at least three victories.
The big difference between 2014 and 2021 is each race weekend now features three races instead of two, meaning there are more chances for victory. While Jonathan Rea and the dominant Kawasaki will still be there and Rea is one victory away from his 100th victory, there should be more race winners.
Rea will be fine and so should be his teammate Alex Lowes, who won at the Phillip Island opening weekend in 2020 and then didn't win again. Scott Redding and Toprak Razgatlioglu each had at least three victories in 2020, and they should both reach that mark in 2021. Chaz Davies won only twice. That shouldn't happen again. Michael Ruben Rinaldi scored a surprise victory at Aragón and Rinaldi will move to the factory Ducati in 2021. Tito Rabat has moved from MotoGP to Barni Racing Team Ducati.
BMW has made some waves, hiring Michael van der Mark from Yamaha, who won at Barcelona. Van der Mark joins Sykes. We will also see Álvaro Bautista back on the Honda after winning no races in 2020. Andrea Locatelli moves up after thrashing the World Supersport field in 2020 to join Razgatlioglu at Yamaha.
Rea, Redding and Razgatlioglu should all hit three victories again. I think either Rinaldi or Davies could get three. I have high hopes for BMW (which might be crazy), and I think Locatelli could be competitive in the Yamaha battle with Razgatlioglu.
8. Garrett Gerloff at least doubles his number of podium finishes in full races
Gerloff surprised me in 2020, ending up 11th in the championship and he was on the podium three times in the final seven races. Two of those were in full races and one of those was in a SuperPole race.
After seeing what Gerloff could do in year one, in a pandemic-affected season, I think he can make a stride forward but not necessarily light the world on fire. I think he could end up on the podium in at least four main races. We could have 13 rounds, which means 26 full races. He would need a batting average of 0.153 for this prediction to be fulfilled.
The Yamaha is a good bike. I don't think Gerloff will come close to Razgatlioglu but the Turk had nine podium finishes in 2020. Van der Mark had seven podium finishes with Yamaha last year and Loris Baz had four podium finishes. Locatelli will be a good counterpart to Gerloff. I think both riders could pull out about six to nine total podium finishes, but in Gerloff's case, I think at least four of those occur in full races.
9. BMW scores at least 250 points
I am going out on a limb because BMW has lured in Michael van der Mark alongside Tom Sykes. Sykes opened the 2020 season with two pole positions, but he and BMW had only one top five finish all season.
Alongside van der Mark and Sykes, Eugene Laverty and Jonas Folger will be on customer BMWs. Folger is attempting a full-time comeback after Gilbert's syndrome ended his 2017 MotoGP season with Tech3 Yamaha. Folger made five wild card starts in Moto2 in 2019.
In 2019, BMW scored 249 points and picked up three podium finishes. BMW has not broken 250 points in the constructors' championship since 2013, the last season BMW won a race.
I am hopeful BMW can be competitive and perhaps van der Mark could lift the German manufacture to another level. I do not envision victories, but a handful of podium finishes combined with other respectable results can add up to at least 250 points.
10. Andrea Locatelii will have the best WSBK championship finish for a reigning World Supersport champion since Cal Crutchlow
Locatelli won 12 of 15 races in World Supersport last year and won the championship by 103 points over Lucas Mahias.
Locatelli moves up to Yamaha's World Superbike effort and he will have a big measuring stick in Razgatlioglu as his teammate. He replaces van der Mark, who was fifth in the championship last year.
World Supersport champions don't necessarily step into World Superbike and keep up the form. Kenan Sofuoglu stayed in World Supersport year after year. Sam Lowes went from World Supersport to Moto2. Mahias and Randy Krummenacher both stayed in WSS after winning the championship.
Davies won the 2011 WSS championship but finished ninth in his first Superbike season. Van der Mark was the 2014 WSS champion and was seventh in his rookie WSBK season. Sandro Cortese won the 2018 WSS title and then was 12th in WSBK the following year.
Cal Crutchlow won the 2009 World Supersport championship and was fifth in his first World Superbike season in 2010. Basically, I am saying Locatelli will finish sixth or better in the championship this year, matching van der Mark's output from 2020.
World Supersport
11. Can Öncü leaps into the top five of the championship
Öncü stunned the grand prix racing world when he won on his Moto3 debut in 2018 at Valencia at 15 years and 115 days old. Since that victory, he had a disappointing full Moto3 season in 2019 and he moved to World Supersport for 2020.
In his first WSS season, Öncü was 12th in the championship, but scored points in 11 of 15 races with his best finish being sixth. He will move to Kawasaki Puccetti Racing for 2021, replacing Lucas Mahias, who was second in the championship with two victories, eight podium finishes and 13 finishes in the top five. Phillip Öttl will remain at Puccetti Racing after finishing third in the championship.
The bike will be there for Öncü. He will only turn 18 years old at the end of July. We may have been spoiled seeing beginner's luck two years ago, but 2021 will be a chance for Öncü to bloom.
12. Jules Cluzel will have more victories than runner-up finishes
Cluzel started the 2020 season with finishes of second, second, second, sixth, second, second, second, third and a retirement at Aragón after a crash fractured his left tibia and fibula.
In eight World Supersport seasons, Cluzel has finished in the top four of the championship every season. His fewest podium finishes in a season is five. I expect Cluzel to win at least a race or two in 2021, but he will have Federico Caricasulo join him at GMT94 Yamaha after Caricasulo had a disappointing World Superbike season.
Even if Cluzel doesn't win a race, he had six runner-up finishes in 2020. That is a lot of close but no cigar results. Prior to last season, his most runner-up finishes in a season was three. In four of his eight seasons, Cluzel has had two runner-up finishes or fewer. If Cluzel falls into his normal pattern, two victories could be enough for this prediction to be correct.
Our first motorcycle-specific predictions are done. Don't forget to check out the NASCAR, Formula One and sports car racing predictions. Tomorrow, we will conclude our predictions with IndyCar predictions.
