We are moving into the sports car world for our 2021 predictions and 2021 could be a fun year. There has been a lot of movement in IMSA with teams leaving and teams joining. Some teams have changed manufactures. There will be a new class. Hypercar is debuting in the FIA World Endurance Championship and there are a couple new competitors on the grid. We still expect the European Le Mans Series to remain competitive top to bottom. There is a lot that could happen in sports cars next year. Here are 12 predictions to keep in mind.
IMSA
1. A Cadillac team does not win the DPi Endurance Cup championship
We have been awarding the Endurance Cup championship since 2014 and in those seven seasons, a General Motors team has won all seven times.
Chevrolet, Chevrolet, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Cadillac, Cadillac and Cadillac.
Action Express Racing was responsible for the first six of those championships, the first four with the #5 Corvette DP/Cadillac and the last two with the #31 Cadillac. Last year, Wayne Taylor Racing won the Endurance Cup championship.
This streak has to end. It is basic math. Eventually, it will come to an end, and with all the changes ahead of the 2021 season, I think it is due to happen.
Wayne Taylor Racing will not be fielding a Cadillac, as it switches to Acura. Ricky Taylor is back with his father's team. Filipe Albuquerque moves from Action Express Racing's endurance driver to WTR's full-time driver. Alexander Rossi retains his endurance driver role with an Acura team and Hélio Castroneves will be in the car for the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Meyer Shank Racing moves back to the DPi class with Acura. Dane Cameron remains a full-time driver. Olivier Pla will be full-time. Juan Pablo Montoya will be the endurance driver and A.J. Allmendinger will be in the car for Daytona.
The only other non-Cadillac entry will be Mazda Motorsports with Oliver Jarvis and Harry Tincknell full-time and Jonathan Bomarito as the endurance driver.
Cadillac still has powers in numbers. It keeps the #31 Action Express Racing Cadillac with Pipo Derani and Felipe Nasr and Mike Conway will return as the team's endurance driver with Chase Elliott joining the team for the 24 Hours of Daytona. JDC-Miller Motorsports will run a car full of French drivers with Loïc Duval and Tristan Vautier full-time and Sébastien Bourdais in for the endurance races. Cadillac has gained Chip Ganassi Racing, which will have Kevin Magnussen and Renger van der Zande full-time and likely have Scott Dixon for Daytona if not all the endurance races.
While you feel like taking the field, Cadillac has been masterful in endurance races. It has won the last four 24 Hours of Daytona. Chip Ganassi Racing won the 24 Hours of Daytona six times in a ten-year period before it switched to run the Ford GT program. Cadillac has also won Petit Le Mans the last three years.
Sebring and Watkins Glen have been the two toss ups. At Watkins Glen, Cadillac has only won once in three years, but if you expand that to GM as a whole, GM won the Six Hours of the Glen seven consecutive years from 2011 to 2017. Cadillac has a 50% winning percentage at Sebring, and it has won each of the last two odd-numbered years, so 2021 is sounding pretty good to the American manufacture.
Acura's only endurance race victory was the Six Hours of Atlanta last year, which filled in when Watkins Glen could not host IMSA due to mass gathering restrictions. Of the four endurance races scheduled for 2021, Acura has won none of them! Mazda has only been slightly better, having won at Watkins Glen in 2019 and Sebring last year. Mazda is also known for its notable retirements from endurance races.
Despite history pointing to this being another Cadillac year dominating the endurance races, I believe the trend will be bucked. Acura will either be on it with WTR and MSR or Mazda wins it clinically.
2. There will be at least one notable incident involving an LMP3 car
When LMP3 was announced as a new class for the 2021 WeatherTech Sports Car Championship, many had flashbacks to the days of Prototype Challenge, when the PC cars got attention for the wrong reasons most of the time.
LMP3 cars are a little more sophisticated compared to the PC cars of last decade, but speed is the concern. It is the third fastest of three prototype class and almost level with the GT Le Mans cars. It is also a Pro-Am class, and we could see some drivers caught out of their element at the worst possible time.
There could be a silver lining in a significantly reduced GTLM grid in that it will create space for these LMP3 entries, but the talent of the grid will take a dip in adding a half-dozen Pro-Am cars.
I am not saying something bad will happen or someone will get hurt, but I think there will be an untimely full course caution due to an LMP3 incident or perhaps we get the dreaded LMP3 contact with a leading DPi and it breaks up what was a thrilling finish.
We don't want to see it, but we are still a little haunted after some of those PC races. I am not saying it is going to be a chronic problem. It just has to happen once. The entire season could be clean, and we could end 2021 saying LMP3 was a smart addition to the grid, but I am saying there will be one race where an LMP3 incident has our attention afterward.
3. There will be one GTLM race where the winning team did not compete in the GTLM class in 2020
I am hopeful we see more than two Corvettes and two BMWs competing in GTLM in 2021. We guess Corvette will be there, but right now BMW is only committed to the 24 Hours of Daytona and the German manufacture has been hinting to an Endurance Cup only schedule.
With Corvette being the lone returning manufacture, you would think this prediction is a slam dunk. It is not as simple as that. We know Proton Competition will field a Porsche in GTLM at Daytona, but it has not indicated it would contest any other races. Scuderia Corsa has been flirting with entering GTLM with a Ferrari since the class will likely only be four full-time cars, possibly only two, instead of competing against nearly a dozen GT Daytona entries, Scuderia Corsa would like its chances in GTLM.
Corvette would have the advantage, but even if Scuderia Corsa is its only competition, one race would go Ferrari's way with Balance of Performance. I am not saying the championship would be close, but Scuderia Corsa would get its break and get a victory.
The other hope is an Aston Martin could find its way on the grid. With Aston Martin withdrawing from FIA World Endurance Championship competition, and there is not a privateer Aston Martin on the horizon, the British manufacture likely will not make an appearance in IMSA next year. You have to hope for the best with this class. We don't need six privateer GTLM entries to join the class, we need one and we need it to win one race.
4. At least two manufactures win in GTD that did not win in 2020
The GT Daytona winning manufactures in 2020 were Lamborghini, Lexus, BMW, Acura, Ferrari and Porsche.
The manufactures not to win in 2020 were Mercedes-AMG, Aston Martin, Audi and McLaren.
If Wright Motorsports didn't win at Sebring, Porsche could have been an option to fulfill this prediction. Anyway, there are a lot of good GTD teams, and it is always the class that produces a variety of winners. Mercedes-AMG had a couple of close calls with victory in 2020 under the Riley Motorsports banner. Riley will focus on LMP3 in 2021, but Alegra Motorsports will return to GTD with a Mercedes-AMG and Daniel Morad will be one of its drivers.
Alegra Motorsports has won the 24 Hours of Daytona twice, though both of those victories were with Porsche. No one would be surprised if Alegra was competitive and found a way to win a race.
Many GTD entries have yet to be announced and we do not have a full picture of what the class will look like. We have no announced entries from Aston Martin, Audi or McLaren. Audi has not won a GTD race since the 2017 Petit Le Mans. Aston Martin and McLaren have never won in GTD. That will likely have to change for this prediction to be correct. I do not see Bentley walking through that door and Bentley is really the only major GT3 manufacture not in the class. There are really not any other options but Mercedes-AMG, Aston Martin, Audi and McLaren.
FIA World Endurance Championship
5. Toyota does not sweep the overall victories
We are entering a new era in the top prototype class with Le Mans Hypercar replacing LMP1.
Toyota was the one major manufacture in LMP1 over the later seasons with reasonable competition from Rebellion Racing, but it took drastic equivalence of technology measures and balance of performance measures to bring the Toyota back to the Rebellion entries. With an anchor strapped on the Toyota TS050 Hybrids, Rebellion was able to pick off a few victories.
Heading into the first year of the Hypercar class, Toyota is the one major manufacture standing. It will contest the GR Super Sport while Scuderia Cameron Glickenhaus plans on entering the SCG 007 and long-time LMP1 back marker ByKolles will field a yet to be named entry.
On paper, Toyota should mop the floor. Glickenhaus has built some competitive cars, especially at events such as the 24 Hours Nürburgring. This is a big step up for the boutique manufacture. And ByKolles is ByKolles. Expectations are low for them.
Anytime a new class or formula is introduced and there are a bunch of new cars and engines, we think reliability will cause major teams to slip up and create some oddball results. However, it is the 21st century. This is not the 1960s. We don't see reliability completely blow up a race and some Johnny-Come-Lately take a victory.
Toyota is going to be strong; it is going to win races; it will likely win Le Mans and it will likely win the championship.
However, I am leaving the door open. There are six races on the 2021 WEC calendar. That's not many, but I am going to leave some room for Glickenhaus being competitive, balance of performance dragging Toyota back late in the season or Alpine, running a grandfathered Rebellion R13 is quicker than the Hypercars on a given day and pull out a victory. Or reliability issues knock out all the Hypercar entries and an LMP2 car sneaks out with an overall victory.
Six victories are not many, but six consecutive victories, really nine consecutive victories if you take into account the final races of the 2019-20 season, that is asking a lot.
6. Signatech Alpine wins at least two races
A normal LMP2 powerhouse, Signatech Alpine went winless in 2019-20.
How odd was that?
Signatech Aline had won a race in each of its first four seasons in WEC dating to its debut in 2015.
What do all but one of those victories have in common?
Nicolas Lapierre. Lapierre had been a driver in every Signatech Alpine victory, except for the team's first at Shanghai in 2015.
Lapierre moved to Cool Racing in 2019-20 and won on debut at Silverstone in September 2019. Who was second in that race? Signatech Alpine.
Signatech did not have a weaker lineup. Toyota reserve driver Thomas Laurent was paired with André Negrão, who won the championship the season prior, and Pierre Ragues is an experienced driver. United Autosport was dominant across the board in LMP2 racing in 2020. It is a difficult class. Jota Sport had only one victory. Jackie Chan DC Racing didn't win until the season finale. Cool Racing won the season opener and only had one other podium finish all season.
With Alpine supporting a grandfathered LMP1 entry, I am not sure the extent of its LMP2 support this year, but if it continues, or at least if Signatech continues with a different backer, I think it will return as a competitive force. United Autosport is going to be strong, but it will be difficult to back up a season that saw four consecutive victories and six total podium finishes.
There will be room for other teams to step up and I think Signatech will have a better 2021 season.
7. At least one full-time GTE-Pro entry does not win a race
I had to change this prediction because Aston Martin decided to withdraw from the FIA World Endurance Championship on December 23.
It is hard to get excited or make a prediction worth a damn for a class that will likely only have four full-time entries. Here is what I am going to say, we are likely getting two Porsche entries and two Ferraris from AF Corse. One of those cars don't win a race.
Porsche has removed Michael Christensen from the #92 Porsche and put in Neel Jani alongside Kévin Estre. Christensen and Estre won two of the final three races in the 2019-20 season. The #91 Porsche of Gianmaria Bruni and Richard Lietz won the 2019-20 season opener and then didn't win again.
If AF Corse keeps its two lineups from last season, then the #51 Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi will be the only team with a victory to defend as Calado and Pier Guidi won at Shanghai while Miguel Molina and Davide Rigon did not win in the #71 Ferrari.
With only six races on the 2021 calendar, it is set up that each car could get a victory, but if one team comes out on top early, then the teammate may concede positions, and possibly victories, to ensure the sister car can win the championship.
I am going out on a limb on this one, but it is a four-car class.
8. A Dempsey-Proton Racing entrant scores at least 90 points
After winning five of eight races in the 2018-19 WEC season, Dempsey-Proton Racing went 0-for-8 in 2019-20.
It was a surprise because of the strength displayed the season prior, even if it was slightly tainted because of code manipulation to circumvent minimum re-fueling times. The team still won three races after that infraction was found. Matt Campbell was the stud of 2018-19 and became the Porsche prospect of the year. The 2019-20 season was not close to the year prior. Dempsey-Proton Racing did not get a podium finish until Spa-Francorchamps on August 15, 2020. The team went nearly 14 months between podium finishes. Team Project 1 was the leading Porsche team in GTE-AM and none of them could compete with the TF Sport Aston Martin or the #83 AF Corse Ferrari.
Why do I think it will be better?
One, Porsche will provide the quality drivers that can win races. Two, I am not sure TF Sport can keep up what it did in 2019-20. Last year was impressive, but we are used to seeing the Aston Martin factory supported GTE-Am car succeed, not the customer team. I would think the factory Aston Martin will rise and the customer will take a dip.
Ninety points sound low, but that is because there will only be six races next year.
The #77 Dempsey-Proton Porsche scored 107.5 points in eight races and the #88 Porsche scored 45.5 points. Those average out to 13.4375 and 5.6875 points per race respectively. Ninety points from six races would be an average of 15 points per race, or a third-place finish in the five races that aren't the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
The #77 Porsche is not far from where it has to be to fulfill this prediction. For context, the #83 AF Corse Ferrari won the championship and averaged 20.875 points per race, while the TF Sport Aston Martin averaged 19.25 points per race. The #56 Team Project 1 Porsche was third, 11.5 points ahead of the #77 Porsche and averaged 14.75 PPR.
Should at least one Dempsey-Proton Racing Porsche finish at least third in the GTE-Am championship? Yes. That is the where I am setting the bar for 2021.
European Le Mans Series
9. There will be one race where one nationality is represented by at least one driver in all three class winners
Let me explain this. This prediction is correct if a British driver is on the top step of the podium in LMP2, LMP3 and GTE.
If United Autosport sweeps LMP2 and LMP3 and Phil Hanson wins in LMP2, Wayne Boyd wins in LMP3 and then Spirit of Race with Duncan Cameron and Aaron Scott win in GTE, then this prediction is correct.
Or if Cool Racing wins and Nicolas Lapierre is one of its drivers and then Graff wins in LMP3 with Vincent Capillaire and GTE has Emmanuel Collard and François Perrodo win, then this prediction is correct.
You might be thinking, "Geez, that sounds easy. It must happen all the time."
Well, it doesn't. In fact, it has not happened since Silverstone 2016 when each class winner had a British driver. G-Drive Racing won in LMP2 with Simon Dolan and Harry Tincknell, United Autosports won in LMP3 with Alex Brundle and Christian England and GTE saw the all-British Aston Martin of Andrew Howard, Alex MacDowall and Darren Turner take victory.
In 2020, in four of five races did two of the class have a shared nationality and it should not be a surprise that on all four occasions they were British drivers. The missing class at the first Circuit Paul Ricard race, Spa-Francorchamps and Monza was GTE. At the second Circuit Paul Ricard race, this time there were British winners in LMP2 and GTE, but not LMP3, though it was close to happening as the #3 United Autosport Ligier was second with Brits Andrew Bentley and Duncan Tappy.
It is going to be five years since this has happened. With all the British drivers out there, money is it happens there, but there are plenty of capable Frenchmen in ELMS. There are also a couple Germans hanging around. Maybe it could be a trio of Americans. There are plenty of possibilities. It is just a matter of all the pieces falling into the right places.
10. United Autosports wins fewer combined races across the LMP2 and LMP3 classes
Zak Brown's main motorsport project won seven races between the two prototype classes in 2020, four in LMP2 and three in LMP3. That was out of a possible ten victories.
That level of hit rate is not going to continue. ELMS is a competitive series. DragonSpeed fields a car, G-Drive Racing is a regular LMP2 thorn. IDEC Sport has a championship. It would be no surprise if United Autosports won the championship again, but to win four races after its monumental 2020 season is hard to imagine.
LMP3 is equally as tough. Inter Europol Competition has been knocking on the door for a championship. Eurointernational had won the title in 2019. RLR MSport is a previous champion.
There will be six ELMS rounds in 2021, which is one more than 2020. That means United Autosports will have a chance at 12 possible victories. Even if the team won six combined races, that is half the possible total. Even if the team wins half, this prediction is fulfilled.
I like my odds.
11. There will be at least one class winner that has no other podium finishes but its one victory
I am predicting one team gets it right on one day or one team wins a fluky race in the rain, but the rest of the season is kind of average. Or we see a one-off entry, like a team preparing for Le Mans come in and win and do no other races.
This was close to happening in 2020. Duqueine was second at Portimão in LMP2 to the G-Drive Racing. It was Duqueine's only podium finish of the season.
In LMP3, the #3 United Autosports Ligier had one podium finish, a runner-up finish to the #8 Realteam Racing Ligier in the second Circuit Paul Ricard race. Realteam Racing almost didn't finish on the podium the rest of the season before it finished second at the finale in Portimão. The #7 Nielsen Racing Duqueine was second at Spa-Francorchamps to the #2 United Autosport Ligier. The #7 Duqueine's next best finish was eighth at Monza.
In GTE, the #88 AF Corse Ferrari ran two races. It was second at Spa-Francorchamps and eighth in the finale.
In 2019, this happened in all three classes. DragonSpeed won the season opener in LMP2 and then didn't get on the podium again. In LMP3, 360 Racing won the finale and its next best finish was fourth. Proton Competition had an entry win at Silverstone, withdraw from two races, miss another and finish seventh and retire in the other two.
It didn't happen in 2018, but it did in 2017 and actually happened three times in the LMP3 class. M.Racing - YMR won at Monza but finished only one other race all year and that was a tenth-place finish. Eurointernational won at Red Bull Ring and its next best finish was fourth while AT Racing won at Spa-Francorchamps and its next best finish was also fourth. In GTE that year, Spirit of Race won the penultimate round at Spa-Francorchamps, but it did not have any other trips to the podium that season. It came close though, finishing fourth on three occasions.
It happens, and I believe it will happen again.
12. There will not be a tie for any of the championship after the final race of the season
This is in direct response to how the GTE title ended this season. Two cars tied on points, tied on victories, tied on runner-up finishes, tied on third-place finishes and tied on fourth-place finishes. How was the tie broken? Who won first? Since Proton Competition won the season opener, it got the championship over Kessel Racing.
Prior to that, there had not been a tie for an ELMS championship since the 2005 GT1 championship ended with both BMS Scuderia Italia Ferraris on 35 points. At least that tie was quicker to break as the #51 Ferrari had two victories and the #52 Ferrari had only won once.
If there hadn't been a tie in 16 years, why should I think it would happen two years in a row.
Three sets of predictions down, two to go. Check out the NASCAR and Formula One predictions. We will have two-wheel predictions tomorrow.
