It is now December and the NASCAR season has been over for a month. With us settled into these final days of autumn, let's go over predictions made nearly a year ago about this 2020 season that none of us saw coming. Similar to IndyCar, we will look at each prediction and we will ask if the pandemic affected these predictions in one way or another.
1. Kyle Busch Will Not Have a Winless Drought Greater Than 12 Races
Wrong! Busch went 33 races before he won his first, and only, race of the 2020 season at Texas. That victory wasn't even a smooth sailing day. He had to stretch it on fuel and hold off teammate Martin Truex, Jr.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Possibly.
The easiest way this prediction would be fulfilled would be to win the 13th and 24th races, meaning at worst he would have a 12-race drought at the beginning and ending of the season. Races five through 25 were out of order with additional races at Darlington and Charlotte, races mixed about and doubleheaders at Michigan and Dover.
Let's also not forget to mention this season had no practice after the pandemic, and it is believed the lack of practice hurt Busch the most.
How close was Busch to preventing this prediction from being false?
He was second and third at Fontana and Phoenix respectively before the pandemic. In the second Darlington race, he was second when the rain fell while the race was under caution. After that, he was fourth at Bristol with 100 laps led and second at Atlanta, a speck in Kevin Harvick's rear mirror.
Those were five good opportunities. Let's not forget he was in contention for Daytona 500 victory before his engine expired with less than 20 laps to go.
In the second half of the regular season, he was taken out while running strong in the second Pocono race, dropped to 11th at Kansas after starting well and winning a stage and had a slew of problems at the Daytona road course kept him from ever being a factor.
In the final ten races, he had another strong Bristol race in September before Kevin Harvick beat him late.
I don't think Busch would have won five or six races this season if everything had gone as planned, but I bet he would have gotten another one or two.
2. There Will be at Least Two Different Drivers in the Championship 4
Correct!
Denny Hamlin was the one hold over from 2019. Busch, Truex and Harvick were out and Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski came in. Busch, Truex and Harvick had all made the final four in the previous three seasons.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
If I think the pandemic is a cause of Busch winning fewer races, then I guess I have to think the pandemic slightly affected who made the final four.
With all the races shook up, races added that never were supposed to exist and races that were supposed to be there not taking place, we could have been looking at different number of playoff points, different winners and potential different playoff drivers.
We will never know. Yes, it could have been different, but we will have no way of knowing how different.
3. Jimmie Johnson is Not the Worst Finishing Hendrick Motorsports Driver in the Championship
Wrong!
Johnson missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season while his three Hendrick Motorsports' teammates all made it. That meant the best Johnson could be was 17th and the worst his three teammates could have done was 16th.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Like the first two, possibly.
We don't know how this season would have gone if Johnson had practice and if all the original races were featured.
Johnson came close to making it and it all fell apart in the 26th race at Daytona. He was ranked 15th in points, but with Austin Dillon winning a race and Cole Custer winning a race, it moved the cutline to 14th and Johnson was out.
Actually, on second thought, yes, the pandemic affected this prediction because Johnson missed the Brickyard 400 due to a positive COVID-19 test. No pandemic, no positive test, no race missed, and Johnson was only six points behind Matt DiBenedetto for the final playoff spot. If Johnson is at Indianapolis, he likely scores more than six points, he likely makes the playoffs and he has a chance to finish ahead of one of his teammates.
4. Christopher Bell Will Finish Ahead of Matt DiBenedetto in the Championship
Wrong!
Bell was 20th in the championship while DiBenedetto was in the playoffs and ended up 13th ahead of William Byron, Aric Almirola and Cole Custer.
It wasn't as close as it might appear on paper. DiBenedetto ended the season with three top five finishes and 11 top ten finishes, while Bell had two top five finishes and seven top ten finishes, but at the end of the regular season DiBenedetto had two top fives and seven top ten finishes and Bell's only top ten finish in the final ten races was third at Texas.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Maybe, because if Johnson was healthy, runs Indianapolis and scores seven points, then DiBenedetto misses the playoffs and Bell could have finished ahead of him, but Bell's results left a lot to be desired.
5. At Least Three Rookies Finish Better than 25th in the Championship
Correct!
Custer made the playoffs with his victory at Kentucky and finished 16th, Tyler Reddick was 19th in the championship and Bell was 20th.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
The only way the pandemic affected this prediction is if the pandemic doesn't happen, I am not sure Custer has the Kentucky race fall into his lap and gift him rookie of the year honors. I still think Custer ends up in the top 25 even if he doesn't win Kentucky, but he likely isn't rookie of the year.
6. Chris Buescher Will Set a Personal Best for Laps Led in a Season
Correct!
I was tracking this all season and there were times when I thought it wasn't going to happen.
Buescher just had to lead 14 laps to fulfill this prediction. He led one lap in the first Phoenix race. That's fine, 13 more to go with 32 races remaining.
The biggest hope was a restrictor plate race. It seems like 25 drivers end up leading a lap in those and if you are lucky, you could end up at the front for a six-lap string and that could really bolster the laps led total. Buescher only led four laps at the first Talladega race, but it got me over a third of the way there with him now on five.
Surprisingly, he led three laps at Pocono during a pit cycle late in that race. Those were three laps I was not counting on, so now I was at eight laps led, just needing six more and there were still 21 races to go.
And then I had to wait... and wait... and wait...
I didn't have any hope he would lead at Indianapolis, Kentucky, Texas, Loudon or Michigan. He is not a road course wonder, so the Daytona road course was out. He wasn't going to lead at Dover. That brought us to Daytona for its second plate race. If he matched his Talladega performance, then I would just need one lap led in the final ten races.
Bad news, he didn't lead at Daytona, and this was when I thought it might not happen. There was still the second Talladega race, but that felt like the last hope.
However, out of nowhere Buescher led 10 laps at Las Vegas during a pit cycle. Prediction met, as he had led 18 laps through the second Las Vegas race. But then it got better, and he led 15 laps at Talladega! That gave him 33 laps led in the season. Prior to 2020, Buescher had led a grand total of 31 laps in his previous four Cup seasons.
Not only was this prediction met with a personal best season, Buescher exceeded his career laps led in one season.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Nope.
7. Quin Houff Completes Less Than 12,000 Miles
Wrong!
Houff completed 12,097.1 miles.
I followed this one closely over the final ten races. I knew it was going to be close and I knew it was going to require an early retirement in a longer race. Amazingly, Houff kept running at the end of races, albeit many, many laps down. He ran 357 of 367 laps in the Southern 500, 487.662 miles. He completed 259 of 268 laps at Las Vegas, 388.5 miles.
Houff was on the lead lap at Talladega, which went 12 laps over the scheduled distance and 200 laps at Talladega gave him an additional 32 miles. He was also on the lead lap at the Charlotte roval, so that was another 248.5 miles.
I needed big help at Kansas and Texas. He was nine laps down and 18 laps down in those races respectively. Heading into the finale, Houff had been running at the finish of 17 consecutive races and had completed 11,948.1 miles.
Houff had to complete 51 laps or fewer at Phoenix for this prediction to be correct and he completed 149 laps before he retired because of handling issues! It was only his sixth retirement of the season.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
No, but green-white-checkered finishes helped.
He got 12 extra laps at Talladega, five extra laps in the first Michigan race, five extra laps in the Coca-Cola 600, four extra laps for the second Daytona race, three extra laps in the first Talladega race, an extra lap at the Brickyard 400 and an extra lap at the second Las Vegas race.
That adds up to 71.48 additional miles. To be fair, the 500-kilometer Darlington race was shortened by 20 laps due to rain, and Houff was only a lap down when that race was called. If it had gone the distance, he would have completed another 27.32 miles.
Take away 71.48 miles, add back 27.32 miles and Houff still ends up with 12,052.94 miles. Maybe he was always going to eek it out. Damn it was close!
8. At Least Three Championship-Ineligible Drivers win a Grand National Series Race
Wrong!
The only championship-ineligible driver to win a Grand National Series race was Kyle Busch.
The only other Cup drivers to run Grand National Series races were Brad Keselowski, who did one race, and Denny Hamlin, who did one race.
Hamlin nearly pulled out victory at Darlington, but even if he did, we were going to fall one winner short of meeting this prediction's criteria.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
It probably did.
We have been seeing fewer Cup drivers participating in this series over the last few seasons, but Team Penske only ran the #12 Ford at the Phoenix race prior to the pandemic with Keselowski. I bet he, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney were going to run about a dozen races combined before the pandemic came in.
With practice being eliminated from majority of the Cup races in 2021, I wonder if we will see more Cup drivers running in the lower divisions to get seat time. It will be interesting to see if this trend is reversed next year.
9. JR Motorsports at Least Doubles Its Number of Victories While Joe Gibbs Racing and Richard Childress Racing Each Has at Least a 25% Decrease in Victories
Correct!
JR Motorsports went from two victories to five.
Joe Gibbs Racing dropped from 13 victories to eight, a 38.46% decrease.
Richard Childress Racing went from five victories to zero, a 500% decrease.
I am surprised JR Motorsports barely fulfilled this prediction and I am surprised Gibbs won as many races as it did.
Justin Allgaier won three times and Noah Gragson won twice, but five victories still seems low for one of the top three teams in this series. In the Gibbs camp, Brandon Jones outperformed expectations this season with three victories while Harrison Burton picked up four victories and then there was Kyle Busch's one victory. Busch almost had two, but his car failed technical inspection post-race at the July Texas race, and that was one victory lost.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I don't think so.
10. The Truck Series Regular Season Champion Has at Least One Victory
Correct!
Austin Hill had a victory in the first Kansas race, the ninth race of the season, and he took the regular season title.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I guess you could argue it did because there wasn't supposed to be a Kansas doubleheader in July, but I bet Hill would have won somewhere in the regular season had the pandemic not happened.
11. At Least Four Drivers That Started a Truck Race But Did Not Win in 2019 Get a Victory in 2020
Correct!
Sheldon Creed won five races this season on his way to the championship after he picked up zero victories in 2019.
Matt Crafton won the second Kansas race after he picked up zero victories on his way to taking the championship in 2019.
Ben Rhodes won at Darlington after not having a victory in 2019.
Raphaël Lassard won at Talladega after he did not win in any of his five starts in 2019.
Sam Meyer won at Bristol after he did not win in any of his three starts in 2019.
Brandon Jones won at Pocono after not winning any of his five Truck starts in 2019.
Six drivers fulfilled this prediction and it does not include Zane Smith, because Smith did not run a Truck race in 2019 nor Chase Elliott because Elliott did not run a Truck race in 2019. That means there were eight new winners this year in Trucks and there were 12 total winners! Two-thirds of the winners were new.
The bad news was Tyler Ankrum, Todd Gilliland, Johnny Sauter, Stewart Friesen, Spencer Boyd, Ross Chastain and Greg Biffle all did not pick up a victory in 2020 after winning in 2019.
Who were the only drivers to win in the last two seasons?
Kyle Busch, Brett Moffitt and Austin Hill.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
No.
12. There Will Be Fewer Than Two Different Tracks on the 2021 Cup Schedule
Wrong!
There were three different tracks added and I am not sure anyone saw all three happening back in January.
The Nashville SuperSpeedway gets its first NASCAR Cup race, and first NASCAR national series race weekend since 2011. Circuit of the Americas in Austin gets its first NASCAR Cup race and first NASCAR weekend period. Road America gets its first NASCAR Cup race in 65 years.
Road America was somewhat on the radar at the start of 2020, but the only other serious option being thrown around was the Nashville Fairgrounds, which was going to require a lot of renovations to be up to standard.
I figured Road America could be added and NASCAR would finally be smart enough to give Iowa a date. I was half right and sadly Iowa is basically closed down, unless you think one ARCA race is going to be the breadwinner.
I never thought Austin would happen because Eddie Gossage would dig his feet in to prevent it from happening and I never considered Nashville SuperSpeedway because no one has mentioned the 1.333-mile concrete oval in the last nine years.
Dover Motorsports, Inc. still owns the 1.333-mile oval and with the Fairgrounds not being a likely option for 2021, Dover swept in and gave NASCAR its Nashville date, just not at the track first thought.
Austin will be a lease of the first Texas date, and it is only a one-year deal. Road America is a similar lease deal with Chicagoland, which falls off the Cup schedule, as does Kentucky.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Yes, because I don't believe the 2021 schedule we got would have happened if it wasn't for the pandemic.
NASCAR had announced at the start of the year it planned to release the 2021 schedule by the start of April.
If the pandemic does not happened and NASCAR was on time with releasing the schedule in early April, I doubt it would have included Road America AND Austin AND Nashville AND a second Atlanta race AND a second Darlington race AND a Bristol dirt race AND I am not sure the Brickyard 400 would have been moved to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
Perhaps Road America and Nashville would have been there, but I have a feeling without the pandemic the 2021 season would have looked pretty similar to the 2020 season.
Six out of 12. In this year, I will take half.
