The 17-race, 23-week sprint that was the 2020 Formula One season concluded the other day under the lights of Abu Dhabi in an empty, billion-dollar palace. Almost every series experienced some type of shakeup this year, but none might have had a greater silver lining than Formula One. In piecing together a 2020 season, Mugello, Nürburgring, Portimão, Imola and Istanbul all hosted races, none of which were close to making the original 2020 calendar. Bahrain's perimeter circuit hosted a race and it was one of the most popular of the year.
It was one unexpected occurrence after unexpected occurrence. Nico Hülkenberg drove three races with Racing Point. There were two first-time winners! George Russell drove a Mercedes. With all that happened, how could have any of our 2020 predictions come true? Let's see how predictions made during a calmer time played out.
1. Lewis Hamilton gets his 92nd grand prix victory before November
Correct!
Correct!
Hamilton won his 92nd grand prix on October 25 at Portimão the final race before November.
I will admit, I was going to challenge this prediction if Hamilton had not won his 92nd grand prix before November. Originally, there were going to be 19 races before November. Instead, we had 12 races. I am not saying I would have given this prediction to myself no matter when Hamilton reached 92 victories but winning eight of 12 races to break the record before November is remarkable.
If he had the same winning percentage over 19 races, he would have reached 96 career victories before November, meaning his 92nd victory would have likely come sometime in the middle of July, possibly at the British Grand Prix. Again, remarkable.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
It could have, but it ultimately didn't.
2. Ferrari will announce a driver change for the 2021 season before the Japanese Grand Prix
Correct!
It could have, but it ultimately didn't.
2. Ferrari will announce a driver change for the 2021 season before the Japanese Grand Prix
Correct!
And Ferrari announced it before the first race of the pandemic-delayed season!
Vettel was confirmed out of the team back in May. Soon after that, Carlos Sainz, Jr. was confirmed as Charles Leclerc's co-driver for the 2021 season.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Probably not.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Probably not.
Perhaps Vettel could have saved his job if he had five or six races before the middle of May, however, this felt like the writing was on the wall when the 2019 season came to a close. Unless Vettel was winning races and leading the world championship, I think he was always going to be leaving Maranello and we would have likely known about that exit before the middle of October.
3. One team will have a driver change midseason and it will be Haas F1
Correct, although this is not how I wanted this prediction to be fulfilled.
3. One team will have a driver change midseason and it will be Haas F1
Correct, although this is not how I wanted this prediction to be fulfilled.
After Romain Grosjean's fiery accident at the Bahrain Grand Prix, Pietro Fittipaldi stepped into the car and ran the Sakhir Grand Prix and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, as Grosjean nursed burned hands and feet.
I made this prediction last December, before the pandemic when the hope was infighting would eventually boil over and one of Grosjean or Kevin Magnussen would depart the organization. No one could have seen that accident coming and being the reason why Haas had to replace a driver during the season.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Yes, because the Bahrain Grand Prix wasn't supposed to take place on November 29. I am not sure this same accident occurs if the Bahrain Grand Prix was the second round on March 22 instead of the 15th round just days after Thanksgiving.
Also, all the other midseason driver changes would not have occurred without the pandemic, because they were all for drivers testing positive for COVID-19.
Nico Hülkenberg replaced Sergio Pérez for the two rounds held at Silverstone when Pérez tested positive for COVID-19. Hülkenberg was back in competition for the Nürburgring round when Lance Stroll was ill and missed that round.
Lewis Hamilton tested positive prior to the Sakhir Grand Prix and that shifted George Russell to the Mercedes, while Jack Aitken moved into the Williams.
4. Esteban Ocon will be the top Renault driver but both drivers will be in the top ten of the championship
Wrong!
Not only was Ocon not the top Renault driver, Ocon didn't even finish in the top ten of the championship. Daniel Ricciardo carried his weight scoring nearly double the number of points as Ocon. Ricciardo ended up fifth in the championship and Ocon was 12th.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Nope. Ricciardo was clearly better. I think I bought too much into Ocon's sabbatical and also underplayed what Renault could do this season. I am happy for Ricciardo, because he defended his ability and showed he could find success in more than just a Red Bull.
5. Alexander Albon gets his first career victory but Max Verstappen will have more than double Albon's number of victories
Wrong!
4. Esteban Ocon will be the top Renault driver but both drivers will be in the top ten of the championship
Wrong!
Not only was Ocon not the top Renault driver, Ocon didn't even finish in the top ten of the championship. Daniel Ricciardo carried his weight scoring nearly double the number of points as Ocon. Ricciardo ended up fifth in the championship and Ocon was 12th.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Nope. Ricciardo was clearly better. I think I bought too much into Ocon's sabbatical and also underplayed what Renault could do this season. I am happy for Ricciardo, because he defended his ability and showed he could find success in more than just a Red Bull.
5. Alexander Albon gets his first career victory but Max Verstappen will have more than double Albon's number of victories
Wrong!
Verstappen won the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, however, Albon came up empty. Albon's closest shot was the first race of the season. The Thai driver had fresh tires and was in position to possibly pass both Mercedes to take the victory late. However, contact with Hamilton ended that dream.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Probably not.
Besides Austria, Albon was never a threat for victory. He got two podium finishes, one was Mugello, where seven cars were out before lap eight, and the other was the Bahrain Grand Prix, where Sergio Pérez lost his engine while in third with four laps to go.
6. Lando Norris breaks into the top ten of the championship
Correct!
Norris ended up ninth on 97 points. While he was only two positions to the good, he was 22 points to the good of a top ten championship finish. He was third in the first race of the season in Austria and picked up fastest lap that day. He was in the points in 13 of 17 races.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
No. McLaren made a big stride. Now, the team switches to Mercedes engines after finishing third in the constructors' championship with Renault power. Is McLaren making another untimely change?
7. No British manufacture finishes on the podium for the Dutch Grand Prix
Inapplicable because the Dutch Grand Prix did not occur due to the pandemic.
Though, you could argue since there was no Dutch Grand Prix there were no British manufactures on the podium, therefore this prediction is technically correct, but it is not in the spirit of the game to do that.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Yes, because the pandemic cancelled the Dutch Grand Prix.
8. This will be Kimi Räikkönen's final season in Formula One
Wrong!
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
No. McLaren made a big stride. Now, the team switches to Mercedes engines after finishing third in the constructors' championship with Renault power. Is McLaren making another untimely change?
7. No British manufacture finishes on the podium for the Dutch Grand Prix
Inapplicable because the Dutch Grand Prix did not occur due to the pandemic.
Though, you could argue since there was no Dutch Grand Prix there were no British manufactures on the podium, therefore this prediction is technically correct, but it is not in the spirit of the game to do that.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Yes, because the pandemic cancelled the Dutch Grand Prix.
8. This will be Kimi Räikkönen's final season in Formula One
Wrong!
Räikkönen will be back for his 19th season and he will likely reach 350 entries should he contest every round in 2021.
It is hard to get excited about Räikkönen driving for Alfa Romeo, especially when the team is scrapping just to get one point. He kind of stopped being a driver of interest in the middle of the 2016 season, halfway through his second Ferrari stint when he was no longer a threat for victories and championships, when Mercedes and his teammate Sebastian Vettel were clearly on another level and Red Bull could drop Max Verstappen into a car and be a race winner.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Maybe. I am not sure Räikkönen would have wanted another season if 2020 had been a 22-race, global championship. I think it might have burned him out and Ferrari would have shifted another driver into that seat. Haas got both Mick Schumacher and Nikita Mazepin. Add to it that Ferrari development driver Callum Ilott was second in the Formula Two championship behind Schumacher, I think Ilott might have gotten a shot in the Alfa Romeo if Räikkönen had called it quits or Schumacher would have been placed in the Alfa Romeo and Ilott would have gone to Haas.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Maybe. I am not sure Räikkönen would have wanted another season if 2020 had been a 22-race, global championship. I think it might have burned him out and Ferrari would have shifted another driver into that seat. Haas got both Mick Schumacher and Nikita Mazepin. Add to it that Ferrari development driver Callum Ilott was second in the Formula Two championship behind Schumacher, I think Ilott might have gotten a shot in the Alfa Romeo if Räikkönen had called it quits or Schumacher would have been placed in the Alfa Romeo and Ilott would have gone to Haas.
I can't believe Räikkönen has held on this long in Formula One for how disinterested he is in. There has to be another driver out there with more enthusiasm for the opportunity and would get the same, if not better, results.
9. Racing Point does not finish seventh in the World Constructors' Championship
Correct!
9. Racing Point does not finish seventh in the World Constructors' Championship
Correct!
And to my surprise, Racing Point went up, not down. Little did we know Racing Point would copy the 2019 Mercedes W10 and end up being a top five team because of it. I thought the team would be sixth or eighth. It would either have found a little bit and got ahead of the team now known as AlphaTauri, or Racing Point would remain stagnant and Alfa Romeo would rise.
Nothing suggested Racing Point had momentum to make this much of a stride. Yet, here we are. It won the Sakhir Grand Prix with Sergio Pérez and it ended up fourth in the championship despite losing 15 points after Renault protested the Racing Point RP20's brake ducts were too similar to the Mercedes W10's.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I don't think so because Racing Point was one of the top five manufactures. We had 17 races. I doubt if there were five mores races that Renault, Ferrari and AlphaTauri were all going to finish ahead of Racing Point. There would have been different races if this was a normal season, but I believe it would not have mattered if Montreal, Austin and Mexico City were on the schedule over Mugello, Imola and Portimão.
10. Pierre Gasly has at least two drivers between him and Daniil Kvyat in the World Drivers' Championship
Correct, and this one was closer than I needed it to be.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I don't think so because Racing Point was one of the top five manufactures. We had 17 races. I doubt if there were five mores races that Renault, Ferrari and AlphaTauri were all going to finish ahead of Racing Point. There would have been different races if this was a normal season, but I believe it would not have mattered if Montreal, Austin and Mexico City were on the schedule over Mugello, Imola and Portimão.
10. Pierre Gasly has at least two drivers between him and Daniil Kvyat in the World Drivers' Championship
Correct, and this one was closer than I needed it to be.
Gasly started the season with a seventh at Austria, earning him six points, while Kvyat scored nothing. Kvyat picked up a point the following weekend and Gasly picked up another seventh-place finish in the British Grand Prix. Kvyat scored another point at the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix.
Through five races, Gasly has 12 points in 12th and Kvyat was on two points, tied for 15th but 16th on tiebreaker because Antonio Giovinazzi had a ninth-place finish. The one thing in Gasly's favor was Nico Hülkenberg finishing seventh in the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix. Hülkenberg was an extra driver to contest a race and he had scored six points, which provided an extra buffer to Kvyat.
Then Gasly struck oil, ninth at Barcelona, eighth at Spa-Francorchamps and a victory falling from heaven at Monza. He picked up 31 points in three races, was on 43 points in eighth while Kvyat only scored two points in that three-race span and was 15th on four points. There were six drivers between the AlphaTauri duo, and we knew Monza was the halfway point. We still didn't know how many total races there would be in the 2020 season at Monza. We knew there would be at least six or seven more races, but there wasn't going to be another 12 races. Gasly caught a fluke victory at Monza, but he was always going to outscore Kvyat that day and likely would have had at least two or three drivers between him and the Russian.
Over the four races after Monza, Gasly scores 20 points to Kvyat's ten. Gasly has dropped to ninth on 63 points, but Kvyat was only up to 14th on 14 points. There were four drivers between the two and at this point we knew there were five races left this season. Kvyat was 43 points behind Lance Stroll in 11th.
Then Imola happens. Gasly has a mechanical issue on the grid from fourth starting position. It was obvious the car wasn't going to last long. A coolant leak ended his day after eight laps. Meanwhile, Kvyat started eighth, was running in the points all race, took tires under the safety car period when Verstappen lost his tire and somehow went from sixth to fourth when no one was expecting it. This gave Kvyat 12 points and he leaped to 13th on 26 points while Gasly dropped to tenth.
The good news was Kvyat was still 14 points behind Ocon. The bad news was Gasly had only six points up on Stroll. If Kvyat gained one spot or Gasly dropped one more, this prediction would have been incorrect.
Neither driver scored in Turkey and Gasly finished sixth at Bahrain, picking up eight points, while Kvyat came away with nothing. Gasly was still tenth on 71 points and Kvyat had dropped to 14th after Sebastian Vettel finished on the podium in Turkey.
In the Sakhir Grand Prix, Kvyat scored six points and Gasly came up empty, but to make matters worse, Lance Stroll finished on the podium. Gasly dropped to 11th and Kvyat was 14th, one points behind Vettel for 13th.
Entering the finale, If Kvyat scored two more points than Vettel and Gasly did not score at least three points more than Stroll, than only one driver would be between the two and this prediction would be wrong.
Kvyat qualified seventh for Abu Dhabi while Gasly was ninth. Stroll was eighth on the grid and Vettel was 14th. When the lights went out, this prediction was going to be wrong. The good news was Kvyat had another underwhelming drive, Gasly was competitive, Stroll again went backward and lost ninth on the final lap to Esteban Ocon.
Gasly ended up eighth with four points, Stroll was tenth with one point and Kvyat was 11th, meaning he scored nothing. Gasly ended up tied with Stroll on 75 points, but Gasly got the tiebreaker because he won a race. Gasly took tenth in the championship and Kvyat ended up 14th. With three drivers between the two and the difference in points scored, this prediction appears to be a slam dunk for Gasly, but it truly went to the wire and could have swung the other direction with the change of two or three positions in the final race.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
If there were five more races, Kvyat might have closed in and Gasly might have finished behind Stroll and Ocon.
11. Williams at least triples its World Constructors' Championship points total
Wrong!
If there were five more races, Kvyat might have closed in and Gasly might have finished behind Stroll and Ocon.
11. Williams at least triples its World Constructors' Championship points total
Wrong!
George Russell scored three points, but none of those came with Williams. Those all came in his one-off at the Sakhir Grand Prix driving in place of Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes. Russell was ninth and picked up fastest lap.
However, he scored zero at Williams. Nicholas Latifi scored zero. Latifi had three 11th-place finishes. Russell had one. Russell coughed up likely points at Imola. In a way, this prediction was three positions short of being correct and yet was a mile away from occurring.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I am not sure five races would have made a difference.
12. Every driver that wins the race on the road will be the official winner of every grand prix
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
I am not sure five races would have made a difference.
12. Every driver that wins the race on the road will be the official winner of every grand prix
Correct!
Seventeen drivers took the checkered and kept the victory.
This prediction was nearly nullified in the very first race of the season when Lewis Hamilton was handed a five-second penalty for contact with Alexander Albon. For a moment, it appeared Hamilton might have been able to take first on the road but not open a gap larger than five seconds to keep the victory. Fortunately, Hamilton was second on the road that day and that was the closest this prediction was to being in jeopardy.
Did the pandemic affect this prediction?
Nope.
Seven of 11, with one dropped because the Dutch Grand Prix didn't happen. This might be my best set of predictions yet and it was in the most unpredictable season of them all.
